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Mike Soroka 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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4 minutes ago, rhg1084 said:

 

I think this innings limit thing is a bit over blown. He’s so efficient at keeping his pitch count low that he breezes through innings. I don’t think it’ll be a big issue at end of year. Especially with Atlanta in the heart of a pennant race 

 

Just now, 4catztoomany said:

I've always wondered why people consider innings caps.  A 7 inning 80 pitch performance is way different that 6IP and 100 pitches.  Innings caps are really misleading. 

 

Well... I agree with you guys but MLB teams seem to do it so it does worry me.

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Just now, hangin n wangin said:

 

 

Well... I agree with you guys but MLB teams seem to do it so it does worry me.

I actually edited my comment to better reflect what I was trying to ask which really was, why do teams look at it like innings caps? Seems too simple of an approach to consider workload over the year. I've gotta think they have more advanced measures to indicate when to bench for the rest of the year. 

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Didn't this homie have health probs in the spring.

A 1 ERA and we are almost in June.

Dang he fine.

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15 hours ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Love this kid's long term (2020 and beyond) outlook, but I am trying to unload him for a more proven hitter or pitcher. The innings cap scares me enough. 

Huh?  The "proven" hitter or pitcher (what is "proven" in baseball at all?) could go out with a season ending injury while Soroko is "managed" to still be fresh in September. I think selling off your best pitcher in May is not exactly a winning strategy and way overthinking yourself into blowing your chances to win the league.  If you have an ace you play him. Not dump him for three magic beans.

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14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Huh?  The "proven" hitter or pitcher (what is "proven" in baseball at all?) could go out with a season ending injury while Soroko is "managed" to still be fresh in September. I think selling off your best pitcher in May is not exactly a winning strategy and way overthinking yourself into blowing your chances to win the league.  If you have an ace you play him. Not dump him for three magic beans.

Generally when people sell a player doing well they're looking for more than a handful of beans. It appears you've been doing it wrong, which is probably why the concept seems upset you so much.

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24 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Generally when people sell a player doing well they're looking for more than a handful of beans. It appears you've been doing it wrong, which is probably why the concept seems upset you so much.

I don't sell my best assets period that is why I have a pretty darn good winning record in the leagues I play in.  And "selling" all the time usually backfires big time in dynasty leagues.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't sell my best assets period that is why I have a pretty darn good winning record in the leagues I play in.  And "selling" all the time usually backfires big time in dynasty leagues.

Okay, guy. Do what works for you. Maybe I'm just not appreciating his mound presence, but I certainly feel there's no way he's keeping it up at this level. What's he's done so far is banked production but not necessarily predictive. A 2.88 fip is phenomenal. His 3.95 xfip is not. I like the guy, but he's hardly at ace levels for me and I'm always open to selling any of my players. 

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't sell my best assets period that is why I have a pretty darn good winning record in the leagues I play in.  And "selling" all the time usually backfires big time in dynasty leagues.

When we talk about buying/selling it's never about Keeper/dynasty format. Selling high is a winning strategy. It has been proven. You always sell high on unproven players such as soroka to get back a proven stud. Never sit. Never be content. That's my motto, and it wins more often than not.

Edited by David Aames

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Okay, guy. Do what works for you. Maybe I'm just not appreciating his mound presence, but I certainly feel there's no way he's keeping it up at this level. What's he's done so far is banked production but not necessarily predictive. A 2.88 fip is phenomenal. His 3.95 xfip is not. I like the guy, but he's hardly at ace levels for me and I'm always open to selling any of my players. 

I'll attempt to decipher the meaning behind the rather large gap between his FIP and xFIP, since I think it's worth addressing.

So FIP and xFIP attempt to determine how a strong a pitcher performs when taking out luck based variables such as defense, sequencing, etc. The distinction is that FIP takes into account the amount of HRs allowed (in Soroka's case, 0) while xFIP factors a pitcher's allowed fly balls and prorates it to the league average HR/FB rate. His FIP is good, but its mostly bolstered by his HR allowed being at nil. If his flyballs allowed were to lead to HRs occurring at just an average rate, this shoots up more than a full rate.

Essentially, Soroka's ability to limit HRs is luck based and not skill based. He's not preventing fly balls, he's just been lucky with them not going over the fence. Atlanta has a neutral to slightly pitcher friendly park as well, contributing to a slightly higher SIERA than xFIP at 4.12 heading into tonight. I knew about Soroka's pedigree coming up but I'm not the most fit person to say if he's historically has had a knack in preventing long balls, but the saber-metrics suggest otherwise. If you can get a good haul I don't see why you shouldn't sell, especially when he's flirting with a sub 1 ERA and is living up to his blue-chip prospect hype.

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Pitchers list just did an overview on Soroka and their verdict was hes been getting pretty lucky. He could very well be a perfect sell high right now. I own him in 5/11 leagues and I'm going to see what type of offers are out there.

article for those interested.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/the-pitcher-plate-discipline-rankings-2019-edition-week-6/

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20 minutes ago, David Aames said:

When we talk about buying/selling it's never about Keeper/dynasty format. Selling high is a winning strategy. It has been proven. You always sell high on unproven players such as soroka to get back a proven stud. Never sit. Never be content. That's my motto, and it wins more often than not.

Then you should say in re-draft.  I always state I play dynasty and a lot of people here do as well or play in deep keepers.  That's the types of leagues that have exploded in popularity the last few years after all.  So this isn't a re-draft only site so maybe you mean re-draft but "we" don't as some collective borg viewpoint.  And selling high is not a winning strategy all the time.  It isn't "proven" more than any other strategy. 

Soroka is the type of player that is not available for trade in dynasties in general.  He was drafted while in the minors in these leagues as well as deep keepers and is projected currently as Atlanta's top seeded ace for years to come.  Young players like Soroka are the cornerstones of the dynasty you are building.  You can always easily trade for so-called "proven" vets below first tier or top of second tier level but younger players are coveted in dynasties like gold and almost as hard to get.

And try and move a "proven" player below second tier in a dynasty and you usually will get a no way no how he is too old reply by the majority of owners.  Me, I mix up vets with my prospects/rookies and think of my team like a pipeline of incoming and outgoing players.  But the outgoing are the older players, not the younger ones, unless you are neck and neck with someone to win your league near the end and you have to sacrifice for a short term reward of that flag.

And dump young players in trades too soon and you live to regret it as I have in one league where I gave up on Blake Snell in his first year.  I still kick myself over that one in that league.  You have to be patient with them and especially so with pitchers and catchers.  Soroka is doing better quicker than most young pitchers so that makes him even more valuable.

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55 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Then you should say in re-draft.  I always state I play dynasty and a lot of people here do as well or play in deep keepers.  That's the types of leagues that have exploded in popularity the last few years after all.  So this isn't a re-draft only site so maybe you mean re-draft but "we" don't as some collective borg viewpoint.  

You've been here a long time. Perhaps you should recall there are different types of formats and redraft is more common around here. You could always ask for clarity before popping off. Though selling high applies in all formats, it does change the return you'd need to get back in order to move him.

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FWIW, the Braves are averaging 3 runs per game while Soroka is pitching (most of their runs have come in 7-9th innings)  The guy's pitching in 1-2 run ball games and delivering.  

But I kind of agree that he's due for some regression as the season wears on.  

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

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3 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

You've been here a long time. Perhaps you should recall there are different types of formats and redraft is more common around here. You could always ask for clarity before popping off. Though selling high applies in all formats, it does change the return you'd need to get back in order to move him.

 

:huh:

And why criticize him for not asking for clarity? Maybe others should preface their opinion with the disclaimer that they are specifically talking about redraft. Two way street, man...Also, as a neutral, I didn't see him as the one "popping off". I saw that coming from you with your sarcastic "ok guy..." My 2 cents.

Guys like Soroka don't grow on trees. If you are always looking to sell your best assets, you are likely running in place. In a keeper/dynasty format, he is absolutely not a "sell high".

Edited by ThreadKiller
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Soroka's definitely due for some regression but I watched him pitch last night and every pitch he throws has ridiculous movement on it, especially the sinker. Just a hard pitcher to barrel against (he's only giving up 22% FBs and historically, his HR/FB is quite low). He does need to throw more strikes with his slider though if he wants to increase the K rate and decrease the BB rate. Awesome to watch though.

Edited by Mexal
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29 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

:huh:

And why criticize him for not asking for clarity? Maybe others should preface their opinion with the disclaimer that they are specifically talking about redraft. Two way street, man...Also, as a neutral, I didn't see him as the one "popping off". I saw that coming from you with your sarcastic "ok guy..." My 2 cents.

Guys like Soroka don't grow on trees. If you are always looking to sell your best assets, you are likely running in place. In a keeper/dynasty format, he is absolutely not a "sell high".

I understand both points... trying to sell or not selling Soroka. Why can’t both points be right? What I don’t understand - trying to up the other. One thinks it’s best to field trade offers while the one who plays in a dynasty league telling people they are ... 

Me personally since I own Soroka (& Paddock) in my redraft league, I would be looking to move both if this league made trades, I would entertain some offers. I am more worried about pitching inning limits, the team not in the playoff race when September comes than those sabermetrics numbers.  

Edited by shakestreet
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5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I understand both points... trying to sell or not selling Soroka. Why can’t both points be right? What I don’t understand - trying to up the other. One thinks it’s best to field trade offers while the one who plays in a dynasty league telling people they are ... 

Me personally since I own Soroka (& Paddock) in my redraft league, I would be looking to move both if this league made trades, I would entertain some offers. I am more worried about pitching inning limits, the team not in the playoff race when September comes than those sabermetrics numbers.  

 

Who's telling people "they are..."? I hope you're not referring to me...I was interceding because "Rob" was extremely sarcastic and insulting in his posts criticizing BigBat and claiming he "is doing it wrong" and he should be the one to preface his post with "dynasty". Seemed like an unnecessary attempt at conflict.

I agree in redraft, I'd be open to selling to highest bidder, but it would depend on the return. I don't think you'd be able to get fair value in a competitive league IMO. Though that depends how you rank Soroka. Personally, I think he is valued pretty high, so it would take a lot to get him. In my dynasty/salary league, with how it's set up, he'd be extremely expensive to get from me right now...

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A couple of points.  Fangraphs has his xFIP at 3.69 and FIP at 2.89.  If you sort based on xFIP that still puts him at #37 for pitchers with at least 40IP.  His HR/FB rate is low but even as that goes up, he has shown the ability to limit base runners which may blunt the impact of home runs.  He also has a stellar defense behind him which should also neutralize some base runners and runs.  Again, in a dynasty/keeper format, it seems like an easy hold, especially with Pache likely up next year, improving an already phenomenal defense.  For those in win leagues, he should rack up a healthy amount and he seems efficient enough to at least give us 6IP a start for those of us in QS leagues.

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I don't have any issue holding onto this guy. I have no issue selling this guy. What bothers me is people attacking the very idea of selling him while saying something like the don't sell aces for pennies. Well...okay. No kidding. I haven't seen a single person in here suggesting that get whatever you possibly can before the bottom falls out. We're all a fan of this kid. I'm not trying to insult people by pretending they're unable to get value in a trade. I have no idea if you can get a haul for him in your league or not, as that gets league specific. What I do know is there's a rather big discrepancy between his actual production right now and what is a reasonable expectation for him moving forward. Whenever that happens with a player it creates a possible buying and selling opportunity. Again, that depends on your league. Some leagues trade a lot, others not at all. Is someone in your league willing to pay for what he's currently doing, expecting it to continue? Maybe. Hence listening to offers. 

 

Right now he's had 36 innings against the following teams:

Arizona (2x)

Cincinnati

Padres

Miami

Cardinals

Giants

 

Again, I'm a big fan of the kid. And you can only play who is on the schedule. But he's played some really terrible teams and the peripherals are screaming he's been getting a bit lucky. He's not someone you need to run away from, but he's definitely not this good and I would sell him in a heartbeat if someone paid like he is.

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He's the type of guy that you get caught in between with. You want to sell, but you see his skills and they're tantalizing. Think it depends on team need. 

For instance if your team is specifically weak in a certain spot in your lineup then flipping makes sense. 

Also I wouldn't say that his peripherals are "screaming". Sure, he's not a sub 2 ERA bc he's a second year pitcher in a juiced ball year. But he's suppressing hard contact, limiting FB, and has a solid swinging strike rate combined with ELITE command. 

Hard hit about 31%

GB rate about 57%

SwStr rate about 11%

His BABIP and LOB are the main regression area. And throw in his innings probably being limited to the 160 range.

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3 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

I don't have any issue holding onto this guy. I have no issue selling this guy. What bothers me is people attacking the very idea of selling him while saying something like the don't sell aces for pennies. Well...okay. No kidding. I haven't seen a single person in here suggesting that get whatever you possibly can before the bottom falls out. We're all a fan of this kid. I'm not trying to insult people by pretending they're unable to get value in a trade. I have no idea if you can get a haul for him in your league or not, as that gets league specific. What I do know is there's a rather big discrepancy between his actual production right now and what is a reasonable expectation for him moving forward. Whenever that happens with a player it creates a possible buying and selling opportunity. Again, that depends on your league. Some leagues trade a lot, others not at all. Is someone in your league willing to pay for what he's currently doing, expecting it to continue? Maybe. Hence listening to offers. 

 

Right now he's had 36 innings against the following teams:

Arizona (2x)

Cincinnati

Padres

Miami

Cardinals

Giants

 

Again, I'm a big fan of the kid. And you can only play who is on the schedule. But he's played some really terrible teams and the peripherals are screaming he's been getting a bit lucky. He's not someone you need to run away from, but he's definitely not this good and I would sell him in a heartbeat if someone paid like he is.

This. I don't think anyone is untouchable if you get a deal you think is better for your team.

Also, no one is as good as what he is doing right now. Kershaw in his prime didn't have the ERA Soroka does now. If someone offered me Nola for him right now, ummm yea, lets go please.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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14 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't sell my best assets period that is why I have a pretty darn good winning record in the leagues I play in.  And "selling" all the time usually backfires big time in dynasty leagues.

 

or you "sell" like a deranged, coked-out stockbroker and over time accumulate a roster so terrifying that you almost feel guilty - and truthfully fear it will force the league to shut down. 

click here to see Soroka in action. If you haven't discovered Baseball Theater... do yourselves a favor! 

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If you also look at the Braves upcoming schedule, it does seem like he will continue to face a solid amount of weak hitting teams. The only thing that worries me is his shoulder.

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Trade offers / discussion goes in the Assistant Coach forum.

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