urban2014

Josh Allen 2019 Outlook

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Dropped Allen, got Jameis and rollin' with it.

Feel like Allen is in the awesome stream category and a great schedule after the bye, but unusable for 2wks. Also, bad Fantasy Playoff schedule. Only keep if you see yourself desperate in the middle of the season with his cake schedule.

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57 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Allen has 11 rushing TDs in 16 career games, which is actually like a 69% chance of a TD (and 3 of 4 this season is a 75% chance).  Most leagues score rushing TDs for 6 points and passing TDs for 4 points, which means a passing TD is only worth 67% of what a rushing TD is worth.

2 passing TDs is worth 8 fantasy points, and 1 passing TD and ~70% of a rushing TD is worth 8.2 fantasy points.  

So yeah, 1 pass TD and Allen's rushing game is more valuable than your arbitrary 2 passing TD threshold for QB fantasy relevance.

 

Based on your rationalization, hes actually at a 75% chance of a pass TD this season. Soooooo, 0.75 pass TDs and 0.75 rush TDs is worth LESS than 2 pass TDs.

 

Also - don't say "most leagues are 4pts passing TDs" when you cant prove it.  My league is 5 for passing which only further supports my side of the debate and why I am rolling with Winston and Jones for now. 

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so Coach McDermott has confirmed that if Allen is cleared, he will play.

Allen is in protocol still, but later stages -- going to team meetings and practicing. Needs final all clear from team and independent neurologist.

One tell to watch: Bills have an open roster spot after releasing a backup libeman this week and Barkley is the only other QB on the roster. If the Bills sign someone other than a QB he's probably playing.

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So GTD, eh?  Yuck.  I wish they'd just rest him through the bye so he can get fully healthy.  His schedule for the next several weeks after is nothing short of mouth-watering.

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13 minutes ago, kraftwrk_5 said:

So GTD, eh?  Yuck.  I wish they'd just rest him through the bye so he can get fully healthy.  His schedule for the next several weeks after is nothing short of mouth-watering.

 

Should know earlier than that. This isn't an ankle that he has to test before the game. If he's not cleared by Sunday morning I don't think he's getting cleared and they probably will have signed another QB and ruled him out. 

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like that he's ready to go but i think i'm gonna sit him for jimmy g... 

 

i'll check in with the "experts" tomorrow morning. i'm pretty bullish on josh in general but i think jimmy against cleveland is more likely to tread water and i want to avoid a stinker...

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gonna be pouring rain all day here in nashville so keep that in mind.

 

not sure if it helps or hurt.  could help on the running game front.

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2 minutes ago, lindown said:

is he worth keeping through bye week?

 

Out of the bye he gets

MIA

PHI

WSH

@CLE

@MIA

so i'd say so. 

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1 hour ago, lindown said:

is he worth keeping through bye week?

Yes, as mentioned, nice schedule, and I'd expect his numbers to improve ROS. He offers a nice floor and a pretty decent ceiling. 

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12 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Where will he end up ROS if he stays healthy?  Top 10?

 

Probably top 32 at minimum 

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2 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

Where will he end up ROS if he stays healthy?  Top 10?

I'd expect his ROS stats to put him right around QB8-10, particularly in 4-point passing TD leagues. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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9 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I'd expect his ROS stats to put him right around QB8-10, particularly in 4-point passing TD leagues. 

 

Can you re-assess for 6-point passing leagues?

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5 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

Can you re-assess for 6-point passing leagues?

I probably should have just said he has even more value in 4-point passing TDs. It's likely not gonna make a huge difference in his end of season ranking. Probably just a slot or two. 

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I really think having Duke Williams instead of Zay Jones will help Allen's TD #s & completion %. Zay was completely useless this year, dropping passes, not fighting for contested balls, and not getting open enough- he caught only 7 of 18 targets this year. Replacing that with a red zone threat & a guy who can win jump balls is a boon.

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