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Josh Allen 2019 Outlook


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Bills homer here.

 

I love his potential. If the O-line can give receivers time to get open, especially down the field, Allen can throw a ton. Big plays are going to happen it’s just a matter of once a week or once every five or six games. I am worried he will try to do too much, like run unnecessarily and force too many passes. Early in the year I’ll be watching to see if he can make accurate intermediate passes. If he can consistently complete those 7-12 yard passes it will open the rest of the field up. 

 

Im most concerned about the running game in Buffalo. Gore and McCoy? If the Bills can’t establish a running game defenses will eat Allen up.

Im still a homer and want Allen as my QB2.  I’d love to get him rd 12 or later. If he is going 11th or sooner I’m not going to have much stock in him. 

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Perhaps the wind will make him accurate.

Decent weeks...he was the #1 scoring fantasy QB over that time, I’d say he was pretty decent...   Allen has the upside to be the #1 fantasy QB for 2019. Not saying it’s going to happen but i

Best QB of the 2018 NFL Draft, as I said it before that draft.    

One of the best late round QB's to take.  His upside is literally QB1.  He was QB1 for the last 5 games of the season so, arguably, the guy doesn't even need to improve.  He just has to keep doing what he was doing at the end of last season.

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2 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

the guy doesn't even need to improve.  He just has to keep doing what he was doing at the end of last season.

Agreed. I am high on Allen this season and I talked earlier in the thread about how if he's able to sustain his rushing numbers anywhere close to what they were in 2018, he could quickly be considered one of the most prolific rushing QBs we've ever seen.

That's a big "if", though. His running style and the amount of pressure that he seems to put on himself to make plays leaves him as a prime candidate to face injury concerns. Luckily, you can get him for next to nothing as your backup, so weighing the risk/reward ratio makes it fully justifiable to take a chance on this guy. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/6/2019 at 3:47 PM, Brownsfan74 said:

One of the best late round QB's to take.  His upside is literally QB1.  He was QB1 for the last 5 games of the season so, arguably, the guy doesn't even need to improve.  He just has to keep doing what he was doing at the end of last season.


I like Josh Allen as much as anybody, but there's almost 0 chance he continues what he was doing at the end of last season.
There will be rushing opportunities there, but he's spent the whole season improving as a QB and running the offense, working with the RBs so that he doesn't have to run as much. The WR corps in Buffalo has improved, the offensive line has improved, there's a lot to like about Allen's development. That said, if he emerges as a legitimate QB1 it will be because of his passing ability, not rushing. 

 

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1 minute ago, AirForceOne said:


I like Josh Allen as much as anybody, but there's almost 0 chance he continues what he was doing at the end of last season.
There will be rushing opportunities there, but he's spent the whole season improving as a QB and running the offense, working with the RBs so that he doesn't have to run as much. The WR corps in Buffalo has improved, the offensive line has improved, there's a lot to like about Allen's development. That said, if he emerges as a legitimate QB1 it will be because of his passing ability, not rushing. 

 

 

100%, if you draft him then you are counting on a big increase in his throwing numbers. Those rushing numbers are going to plummet, they were all from scrambling and not by design. With that said I still think he rushes for around 400 yards because he is very mobile.

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Probably a repeat post from a while back:  Allen starts against Jets, Giants, and Bengals.   Mitch Morse appears to be on the tail end of the protocol so he'll be back.   The receivers are healthy, other than Tyler Kroft who is no big deal, so no excuses.  If he's good, he's gotta shine right away in those matchups.  If he doesn't, and I own him, I'm cutting bait I think, assuming there's decent waiver options, before that well runs dry.    If the consistency light hasn't turned on yet, i can't hang on to him and hope it brightens during the season, when the matchups will only get tougher and the assumed injuries around him will accrue.  

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I'm a Bills fan so I'm definitely biased, but Josh has really shown what I wanted to see from him this preseason.  He definitely looks to have improved his touch and understanding to not throw a rocket-ball every time he throws.  He looks way more comfortable in the pocket.  What also helps is that he actually has some good weapons now and a much better offensive line.  Cole Beasley will help him out tremendously.  If Josh continues this improvement with his short/intermediate throws I think he will be deadly.  Read the field, process, escape and run when needed.

 

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1162781224819208197?s=20

 

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Do y'all think it'd be workable to start Allen in a 12-team/1 QB league where most people take a backup QB, and thus you do want to come out of the draft with a set starter?

He's basically a free draft pick. I'm looking at Fantasy Football Calculator data for 12-team PPR mock drafts, and Allen averages the 157th pick, which is significantly later than even the "backup QB run" of Rivers, Big Ben, Brady, and Dak (that's more like the 130s.) That's if Allen gets drafted at all, which he apparently usually doesn't... Mahomes has been chosen in 951 drafts, but Allen in only 331.

So, if you were willing to draft Allen as your starting QB, you could literally take him last and could push up each of your other very late picks. If he can even be close to QB12 overall, it'd probably be worthwhile. It seems plausible that if he could be #1 overall for a decent stretch of time, he could manage to at least not fall too much lower than #12, even if a lot fewer things go his way. But... is it plausible?

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i'm really surprised at where this guy's ADP finished (QB20), while lamar jackson held around QB11.

 

lamar is probably the better redraft option but it's hard to argue that he has a higher ceiling than allen. allen has already shown that he can lead the league in FF points for a pretty solid chunk of the season. lamar hasn't done that. (#QB9 once he took over the job.) and allen is basically free.

 

and... allen might actually, you know, get better! the preseason numbers are at least encouraging:

 

18 for 28 (64.3%), 217 yards (7.68 YPA), 0 ints + 4 rushes for 26 yards

 

it's not bonkers but it's quite a bit better than he did last year in the practice games (and the regular season).

 

considering their pedigrees and 2018 performance, this has all the markings of one of those fantasy situations where a lot of owners will be asking "why did we ignore all the signs???" at the end of the season.

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kid is a dynamite prop goldmine- Vegas set him at:

Passing Yds: o3100.5  -115

Passing TDs: o17.5  -115

 

just jumped heavily on both.

 

needless to say, i'm very high on this kid coming into the season - shedding Shady was like handing Josh the keys to the car: "it's all yours, kid ... offense is now built around you ... let's see what ya got"

 

anyone investing in Allen is in for one hell of a ride - oh, and bang the living chit outta that o40.5 (-110) vs the J-E-T-S JETSJETSJETS - he's gonna light 'em up. 

 

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Not buying into him at all.

1. His issues as a passer coming out of Wyoming were enormous and last year did nothing to disprove that.  Sure he could improve but we haven't seen any indication of it yet.

2. Most of his fantasy production came from running.  However, while he's athletic for a QB he's not Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, or Cam Newton.  If you're relying on his rushing for fantasy production I think that's a terrible bet.

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4 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

Not buying into him at all.

1. His issues as a passer coming out of Wyoming were enormous and last year did nothing to disprove that.  Sure he could improve but we haven't seen any indication of it yet.

2. Most of his fantasy production came from running.  However, while he's athletic for a QB he's not Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, or Cam Newton.  If you're relying on his rushing for fantasy production I think that's a terrible bet.

 

he was the highest scoring QB last year weeks 11-17 ... not Mahomes, not Brees, not Ice, not Watson, not St. Russel, not Big Ben ... not Lamar ... nope - it was Josh. 

but, yeah ... he can't be relied on for production.  ok. 

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16 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

he was the highest scoring QB last year weeks 11-17 ... not Mahomes, not Brees, not Ice, not Watson, not St. Russel, not Big Ben ... not Lamar ... nope - it was Josh. 

but, yeah ... he can't be relied on for production.  ok. 

 

I'll extrapolate his stats from week 12 to 17 out to a full 16 game season to see where the production came from.  Looking at his game log he didn't start week 11.

Completion Percentage: 94/181 = 52%

Passing Yards: 3,312

Passing TDs: 21

INTs: 19

Rushing Yards: 1,269 (LOL)

Rushing TDs: 13

...you actually think he wasn't totally reliant on his rushing yards + TDs for his production those last 6 weeks?

If you think that's who he is, then go ahead and keep on drafting him.  I do think running will be part of his game but nothing close to the extent of that 6 game stretch.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I'll extrapolate his stats from week 12 to 17 out to a full 16 game season to see where the production came from.  Looking at his game log he didn't start week 11.

Completion Percentage: 94/181 = 52%

Passing Yards: 3,312

Passing TDs: 21

INTs: 19

Rushing Yards: 1,269 (LOL)

Rushing TDs: 13

...you actually think he wasn't totally reliant on his rushing yards + TDs for his production those last 6 weeks?

If you think that's who he is, then go ahead and keep on drafting him.  I do think running will be part of his game but nothing close to the extent of that 6 game stretch.

 

cool. 

so your legwork kinda backs up my wagering heavily on him to exceed his Vegas sets, which is all i really give a fudge about.

would i use him as my qb in a 12 team leeg?  yep, i took the plunge already in one of me 3 leagues. 

again, money where my mouth is. 

kid's gonna shock a ton of people this year - if you disagree, so be it.  

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3 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Not buying into him at all.

1. His issues as a passer coming out of Wyoming were enormous and last year did nothing to disprove that.  Sure he could improve but we haven't seen any indication of it yet.

2. Most of his fantasy production came from running.  However, while he's athletic for a QB he's not Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, or Cam Newton.  If you're relying on his rushing for fantasy production I think that's a terrible bet.

 

 

i'd point out that he was quite a bit better when he returned from injury. that could be a sign that a player is developing & learning, even while they're not playing.perhaps the game slowed down for him a bit. or he watched a lot of tape. that makes me a bit bullish on his ceiling, since i can envision another step forward...  (it also could just be noise, but we'll soon find out.)

 

qb rating

first 6 games: 60

last 6 games: 75

ypa:

first 6: 5.84

last 6: 6.97

passing yards per game:

first 6: 138.3

last 6: 207.0

td:int

first 6: 2:5

last 6: 8:7

 

also, admittedly he didn't play too much in the preseason, but for what it's worth his numbers are even a little better than the 2nd half of last season:

 

this preseason:

18 for 28 (64.3%), 7.8 ypa, 217 yards

 

 

 

his second half numbers aren't studly or anything, but they're on par with a few other solid QBs rookie seasons: goff, darnold & wentz (also a small school guy).

 

he's a different QB than those guys and accuracy might always be a concern. i'm not sure he'll ever be considered an all pro QB. but some of his deficiencies can be overcome with his size and athleticism. (see: cam newton)

 

for fantasy purposes, i don't think he's an abvious QB1 or anything. just that his ceiling is much higher than any of the other players around him. if he takes a step forward, and we have some indication he can, he could really shine and be a valuable FF player this year. of all the guys being drafted around him, he's the only one i can envision having a top 5 season.


 

 

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I'm buying Josh this year.  Took him as my QB3 (I'm in a 2-QB league), but would love him as a QB2 too with the upside of having several QB1-worthy games this year.  He looked good in the pre-season, and I'm expecting him to improve even more in Year 2.

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This dude has the most fantasy upside of any qb in my opinion. I can’t even name his receivers last season firstly. And now he has two legitimate receivers, a brand new oline, and his running abilities are rarely discussed. I also love QB year 2 players to make a nice leap as well (Wentz and Goff).

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2 hours ago, MrPositive said:

This dude has the most fantasy upside of any qb in my opinion. I can’t even name his receivers last season firstly. And now he has two legitimate receivers, a brand new oline, and his running abilities are rarely discussed. I also love QB year 2 players to make a nice leap as well (Wentz and Goff).

 

Image result for counting money gif

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Everyone totally sleeps on these year 2 QBs who don't light it up in their rookie year - Wentz, Goff, Trubisky. Not saying he will be as good as them but it's possible he puts up very good numbers this year and is dirt cheap.

The Bills were an absolute joke last year offensively and Allen put the team on his back. I think adding Beasley and John Brown will be huge as well at the upgraded O-line.

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He's peaked my interest for sure.  I'll say this, I don't get all the hype for Lamar Jackson when this guy is sitting there going undrafted in most leagues.  To me Allen and Jackson feel like very similar players.  Both are running QBs who's passing ability are in question.  Of the 2 I'd say Allen is the superior passer and he showed elite running ability as a QB last year.  I tend to lean toward passing QBs in fantasy, but Allen is my go to flyer as a QB2 on my roster.   I much prefer Allen in the last round of a draft than Jackson who sometimes goes 5 rounds earlier. 

I've done 3 drafts this past week.  Jackson has been drafted in all 3, while Allen was only drafted in one. 

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