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Trevor Bauer 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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What are people doing with Bauer at this point? I hate benching my ace, especially with his strikeout potential, but he’s been really bad 3/4 starts against relatively poor lineups. Who’s rolling him out there vs TB on Sunday?

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1 hour ago, weisberg26 said:

What are people doing with Bauer at this point? I hate benching my ace, especially with his strikeout potential, but he’s been really bad 3/4 starts against relatively poor lineups. Who’s rolling him out there vs TB on Sunday?

 

Starting him every game. If you assume at the end of the year he's going to give us an ERA of 3.50 or better. You need every start to get that. If you sit him and he has an excellent game, and you start every game after, your final ERA from him will be higher. 

 

It could also go the other way where you sit him and he blows up, but I'd rather eat a blow up than miss on a good start, especially if you think the final line at the end of the season is going to be solid. If that makes sense.

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9 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

Starting him every game. If you assume at the end of the year he's going to give us an ERA of 3.50 or better. You need every start to get that. If you sit him and he has an excellent game, and you start every game after, your final ERA from him will be higher. 

 

It could also go the other way where you sit him and he blows up, but I'd rather eat a blow up than miss on a good start, especially if you think the final line at the end of the season is going to be solid. If that makes sense.

I mean I’m playing in a weekly points league so that doesn’t really apply. Anyways though, I disagree. If he’s been repeatedly “blowing up” in his past few outings with no reason to think things will turn around, I don’t want to just throw him out there and eat the blowups. At this point 4 out of his past 5 starts haven’t been good. Might as well wait till he shows some indication that he’s flipped the switch and then run him back out there. 

Edited by weisberg26
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6 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

Starting him every game. If you assume at the end of the year he's going to give us an ERA of 3.50 or better. You need every start to get that. If you sit him and he has an excellent game, and you start every game after, your final ERA from him will be higher. 

 

It could also go the other way where you sit him and he blows up, but I'd rather eat a blow up than miss on a good start, especially if you think the final line at the end of the season is going to be solid. If that makes sense.

 

Well, just because you didn't sell high back when I said everyone should doesn't mean you have to keep eating poop until he shows signs of life.

I mean, you can't sell him now obviously. But the risk of wasting a good start is probably less than the risk of eating another bad one at this point in time.

The decision largely depends on the rest of your staff. If this guy is really your ace, all I can say is you should try to draft more pitching in roto.

In most H2H leagues you can stream SPs. In most roto leagues, you -need- to have a good rotation to have any chance at 1st place.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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34 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

The 'usage isn't a concern' camp seems awfully quiet. 

 

Don't think the usage is the reason he has no feel for his slider or cutter. Still, I wouldn't have let him go 120 pitches with that control.

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9 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

The 'usage isn't a concern' camp seems awfully quiet. 

I'm still here.  There's just nothing that can really be said now that wasn't said before.  He can throw that many pitches per game.  He doesn't need to be babied.  Yada, yada...

8 hours ago, Mexal said:

 

Don't think the usage is the reason he has no feel for his slider or cutter. Still, I wouldn't have let him go 120 pitches with that control.

Oddly enough, that 6th inning was the first time in a while that he looked like 2018 Bauer.  It made me optimistic that maybe he figured something out during the start, even if he did hit a batter in the middle of it (that happens even when you're on).

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Guy should spend less time trash talking on Twitter and more time getting his pitches over the plate. 

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Another lackluster outing from Bauer, this one today vs Tampa Bay.

6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

I guess it's good to see just 1 walk with 8 strikeouts but non-QS outing pushed his ERA to 4.11.

He has 1 QS in his last five tries, a stretch that has seen him get knocked around by weak offenses like MIA, BAL and CWS.

A month ago, his ERA sat at 1.99.

What's everyone thinking at this point - still just a temporary rough patch? Or are we starting to think his magical 2018 might have been an outlier as opposed to someone breaking through and setting a new norm?

ERA by season:

2019: 4.11

2018: 2.21

2017: 4.19

2016: 4.26

2015: 4.55

2014: 4.18

Granted, this year only includes 76 innings, so not a huge sample by comparison.... but one of those years is not like the others.

Edited by rdf8585

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33 minutes ago, rdf8585 said:

Another lackluster outing from Bauer, this one today vs Tampa Bay.

6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

I guess it's good to see just 1 walk with 8 strikeouts but non-QS outing pushed his ERA to 4.11.

He has 1 QS in his last five tries, a stretch that has seen him get knocked around by weak offenses like MIA, BAL and CWS.

A month ago, his ERA sat at 1.99.

What's everyone thinking at this point - still just a temporary rough patch? Or are we starting to think his magical 2018 might have been an outlier as opposed to someone breaking through and setting a new norm?

ERA by season:

2019: 4.11

2018: 2.21

2017: 4.19

2016: 4.26

2015: 4.55

2014: 4.18

Granted, this year only includes 76 innings, so not a huge sample by comparison.... but one of those years is not like the others.

 

Supposedly his defense screwed him over today and should've been 2 runs. They showed an interview with him before the game today and he thinks the problem was his plant foot and he worked with Smoltz to try and correct it. [...] he's probably worth riding out a couple more starts before hitting the panic button if it was truly a mechanical thing

Edited by tonycpsu
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19 minutes ago, rdf8585 said:

I guess nobody is all that concerned with Bauer?

 

I'm more concerned by his usage than his results. CLE rides him like a rented mule. They rack up the pitch count even when there's no point.

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5 hours ago, LasTortugasFB said:

The buy low window for Trevor Bauer is wide open right now. 

Issues with Bauer this season:

- Locating his fastball -> leading to less first pitch strikes and more hitter's counts

- Change in pitch usage 

 

Well, I guess I agree that Bauer is more of a buy right now than a sell. I mean it would be more difficult for him to pitch worse than he has recently than it would be for him to improve.

But I decided to double check the idea that Bauer is suffering from bad luck (which you said elsewhere).

The one thing that jumped out at me from the numbers is BABIP. Bauer's current BABIP (.243) is actually more than 50 points LOWER than both his career (.297) and last year's BABIP (also .297). His BAA/BABIP split this year is similar to his career split as well. All this suggests that as bad as he's been, he's actually been getting a bit -lucky- along the way. The fact that his hard hit% is up at a career high 40% compared to last year's 36% and his career 33% would also seem to confirm that he's actually -benefiting- from good luck rather than being hurt by bad.

On top of all that, his ERA is still only 3.99 compared to his FIP of 4.28 and xFIP of 4.45. And except for last season, Bauer has always finished with a higher ERA than FIP/xFIP (this last part does seem odd to me though since the Indians have been known for good defense. The only explanation I can come up with is that it's possible he hasn't been good fielding his own position and/or holding baserunners).

Like I said, I do think he's almost certainly closer to being a buy than a sell obviously. But I think there are probably a lot of other SPs with better buy-low potential.

I've read somewhere that Bauer may have tinkered with his delivery too much this spring. I guess this means he could adjust his way out of it as well. Either way, I think that's what it would take, because bad luck doesn't seem to be the culprit here by any stretch.

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He was throwing a change up that wasn’t effective.  He’s abandon it and is throwing his curve and slider more which are effective. I think you’ll see better results soon.

Edited by Stoper54

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Not a word in here. I guess at this point, people were expecting him to get beat up by the first place Twins. 

He has CIN at home and then it’s @DET. If those matchups don’t do the trick, no one is going to buy him and you may have to consider sending him to waivers in some shallow/medium leagues, which is crazy considering his value a few weeks ago. 

Edited by Fiveohnine

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I've always been a fan of his stuff but not him personally. He seems like the type of guy who will let success get in his head. His command is back to where it's been his whole career, and you're not going to be successful in the major's by walking 4 guys every game.

I was able to flip him last week for a good price. I think it's early enough that people will still give you good value for him. Not great value, but good.

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37 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Not a word in here. I guess at this point, people were expecting him to get beat up by the first place Twins. 

He has CIN at home and then it’s @DET. If those matchups don’t do the trick, no one is going to buy him and you may have to consider sending him to waivers in some shallow/medium leagues, which is crazy considering his value a few weeks ago. 

 

His value a few weeks ago was still garbage. 

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2 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Not a word in here. I guess at this point, people were expecting him to get beat up by the first place Twins. 

He has CIN at home and then it’s @DET. If those matchups don’t do the trick, no one is going to buy him and you may have to consider sending him to waivers in some shallow/medium leagues, which is crazy considering his value a few weeks ago. 

No way am I sending him to waivers in any sized league.  Pitching is dire.  So many bum arms in baseball now.  He’s got enough name value to have trade value all year.  You can sell low for a ton of players better than what’s on the wire if you’re really that fed up with him.  Even with how putrid he’s been he still has a 1.15 whip, over K per inning.  He has a great schedule he’s a strong buy right now.  Reds, Tigers, Tigers, Royals, Royals.  If he gets bombed after that stretch well then I don’t know what to say.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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Waivers? Are you guys serious or trolling, honest question? Even with his struggles he's ranked 66th in my league and the 21st ranked pitcher, I drafted him 57th overall in that league, ouch. I mean he hasn't been the ace we had at the beginning but suggesting waivers just shows your bias and dislike for the dude for what it is. In no league, no matter how shallow, is Bauer WW fodder.

 

Are you guys dropping guys like Thor too? Or Nola? Cause I've saved a #1 waiver priority in a couple leagues dreaming of someone making a mistake like that. No one ever seems too though, I'm never that lucky, but there's always talk on forums for some reason.

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16 minutes ago, !!! said:

Waivers? Are you guys serious or trolling, honest question? Even with his struggles he's ranked 66th in my league and the 21st ranked pitcher, I drafted him 57th overall in that league, ouch. I mean he hasn't been the ace we had at the beginning but suggesting waivers just shows your bias and dislike for the dude for what it is. In no league, no matter how shallow, is Bauer WW fodder.

 

Are you guys dropping guys like Thor too? Or Nola? Cause I've saved a #1 waiver priority in a couple leagues dreaming of someone making a mistake like that. No one ever seems too though, I'm never that lucky, but there's always talk on forums for some reason.

Read Nola as Nova initially and was like yeah, I wouldn’t own Nova if my testicular future depended on it.

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17 minutes ago, !!! said:

Waivers? Are you guys serious or trolling, honest question? Even with his struggles he's ranked 66th in my league and the 21st ranked pitcher, I drafted him 57th overall in that league, ouch. I mean he hasn't been the ace we had at the beginning but suggesting waivers just shows your bias and dislike for the dude for what it is. In no league, no matter how shallow, is Bauer WW fodder.

 

Are you guys dropping guys like Thor too? Or Nola? Cause I've saved a #1 waiver priority in a couple leagues dreaming of someone making a mistake like that. No one ever seems too though, I'm never that lucky, but there's always talk on forums for some reason.

It's amazing what alcohol and a night of fantasy frustration can do.  Even in competitive leagues it can happen.  Single malt and a 1/49 start for Bregman in a keeper still haunts me.  

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