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Trevor Bauer 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

Message added by tonycpsu

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He sucks and will lose championships this year

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9 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’d probably argue that the Nats are a top 10 offense.  12th currently.  Fought through some tough injuries early and have been pretty well oiled last few months.  But yes, Bauer is definitely is who he is for this season.  I’d probably take him at face value that he’s pitching hurt.  I don’t think he’s this bad.  He’s a pretty strange dude though so you can almost guarantee you never know what you’ll get out of him.  For next year he’s definitely out of my top 10.  I’d take him as a SP2/3 and hope for a nice ROI.

I traded for him right before he got traded to the Reds and I wouldn't say I regret it, but wtf. He's my SP4 (my pitching is loaded), so I'm probably not as upset as those who spent an early draft pick to get him, or even reached a little.

But yea, he's like 28 years old and has had one year where his ERA has been under 4. And his stuff has always been really good. So at this point, I'm starting to think he just may not be as consistent as people hoped.

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Well, dude just got rocked in 3 innings against the miserable Pirates and I’m back to frustration as I’m sure any fellow Bauer owners are... The inconsistent performances (does worse against bad teams?), the wayyy way too many walks, and the bad home ballpark. anyone else starting to feel like he’s not even in the top 20-30 SP next season?

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8 minutes ago, CaptainClutch2 said:

Well, dude just got rocked in 3 innings against the miserable Pirates and I’m back to frustration as I’m sure any fellow Bauer owners are... The inconsistent performances (does worse against bad teams?), the wayyy way too many walks, and the bad home ballpark. anyone else starting to feel like he’s not even in the top 20-30 SP next season?

6 seasons. 5 of those seasons he’s finished with an ERA over 4 (including this season—4.06 ERA before today).

Last year’s breakout looked legit but it seems clear at this point it was a fluke. IMO there’s no way he should be a SP2 (top 24 in 12 team league) and I personally wouldn’t want him as my SP3. 

I’m assuming he may be ranked higher based on name (Matthew Pouliot put him as the 8th overall SP for 2020 in July update lol). Someone will draft him early. It won’t be me.

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On 8/15/2019 at 7:06 AM, Crono139 said:

Last year was a fluke. Never again.

 

Looks like it was a career year.  

It is to the point where next season he will likely come at a slight discount and hold some value.

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

 

Looks like it was a career year.  

It is to the point where next season he will likely come at a slight discount and hold some value.

Fairly steep discount I should think given where he plays and how he has done since being traded.

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Glad I traded him right after the deadline. This is sort of what I was expecting wtih a move to the NL Central

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Gotta say I am shocked. Watched much of this game. Simply terrible. Yes, his defense was bad today, but wow he was atrocious. He had ZERO effective secondary pitches. His curve ball was a total mess, most of the time not even close to the strike zone. I do not get this guy to be that atrocious. I've seen Bauer slice through good teams, today he just looked like an awful pitcher on every level, he had NOTHING to offer, an OK fastball and not much else. 

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Can't trust this guy in the playoffs. Just can't do it. Maybe i should put him on the wire and dare the other team to start him against me. 

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He's been used to pitching on a playoff team all season.  With the Reds out of it, maybe he's not as sharp.  Still has the strike outs.  Personally I think he will be a bargain next year.  

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In Fantrax 5x5 rankings he has more value than Ryu which is interesting.

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7 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Can't trust this guy in the playoffs. Just can't do it. Maybe i should put him on the wire and dare the other team to start him against me. 

 

He's been helping your opponents all season anyway. The worst that can happen is more of the same.

But yeah, the good news is that you don't have to start this guy if you somehow made h2h playoffs. The damage is done in roto if you're still banging your head against the wall and running him out there. But every league has a waiver wire.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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On 8/25/2019 at 3:40 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Last year’s breakout looked legit but it seems clear at this point it was a fluke. IMO there’s no way he should be a SP2 (top 24 in 12 team league) and I personally wouldn’t want him as my SP3. 

 

He's not even SP2 on the sad sack REDS. Both Castillo and Gray are easily better. But I think you're right that he'll probably still cost more than he should be worth though based on what's left of his name.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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38 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

WHAT A LOSER!

 

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. 

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Bauer's 2018 seemed mostly legit at the time. It seemed like a former high draft pick coming into his own and becoming an ace. If you look at his walk rate, it seemed like he was harnessing his stuff and 2018 is the year he put it all together:

BB/9:
2015: 4.04
2016: 3.32
2017: 3.06
2018: 2.93

It was back up to 3.60 going into today's outing.

Along with lowering his walk rate, he was also increasing his K/9 rate:

2016: 7.96/9
2017: 10.00/9
2018: 11.34/9

Between lowering his walks and raising his strikeouts, it really did seem like he was coming into his own.

Bauer had a 2.21 ERA last year to go along with a 2.44 FIP/3.14 XFIP. I wasn't expecting another 2.21 (that's tough for any starter to do in back to back years) but I thought an ERA in the high 2s/low 3s was perfectly reasonable.

Sometimes when a guy breaks out, it's easy to be skeptical and dismiss it as a fluke. That didn't seem the case with Bauer after last year.

His first month of 2019 was like a continuation of 2018.

You wonder if Bauer has been 100 percent this year. Consider this from late June:

Quote

On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.

 

Maybe an offseason of rest will cure whatever ails him. I honestly have no idea what to expect in 2020.

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I am being sincere when I say that I probably would not spend even $1.00 in my auction draft next season on Trevor Bauer.  There are other pitchers I would rather use the roster spot on.

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I just unloaded him to the Waiver wire to activate Mondesi... I hope I get to face him in the playoffs next week!  Dude is straight trash and by far the worst guy on my team over the last month. 

Edited by Krambone

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Dude has been rotting garbage lately but has been better at home.  Could be an interesting duel with Nola tomorrow.  I feel like a sneaky 7 IP 2 ER 10 K game could be in store.

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im gonna look into him.  could be a good buy low next year

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59 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

Dude has been rotting garbage lately but has been better at home.  Could be an interesting duel with Nola tomorrow.  I feel like a sneaky 7 IP 2 ER 10 K game could be in store.

 

Sounds more like a HR derby to me. But I guess anything can happen. 

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