KilloWertz

Amed Rosario 2019 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

It is true, counting stats wise.  I still think they should let him run plenty even in front of the pitcher though.  We'll see I guess though.

 

In a 5x5 league, 80% of stats are counting stats, and 100% deal with volume in some way, so I don’t think it’s just a value killer “counting stats” wise, depending on how you define that. 

 

He just seems like a lower order bat to me *shrugs*

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You are not likely getting the green light with a pitcher batting behind you.  Most SPs can just blow a pitcher away with fastballs, keep that in mind.  You can see his steals last year batting in the 8-hole reflects that he's not likely going to be running a lot.  If he's hitting 8th, I'm out.  Obviously there could be an injury or he lights it up that could warrant him moving up to lead-off, I'm just not going to be the guy to take him with the 'hopes and dreams' mentality.

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I think it is where he should hit, and it is a value killer. 

Don't 7/8 hitters tend to run wild because the cost of CS is much lower? In the AL there were more SBs from the 7-9 hitters than the 3-6 hitters. Despite 3 thru 6 guys getting on base twice nearly twice as much.(Cumulative, not in actual OBP%)

NL numbers get skewed by pitchers, pinch hitters, etc etc.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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11 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Don't 7/8 hitters tend to run wild because the cost of CS is much lower? In the AL there were more SBs from the 7-9 hitters than the 3-6 hitters. Despite 3 thru 6 guys getting on base twice nearly twice as much.(Cumulative, not in actual OBP%)

NL numbers get skewed by pitchers, pinch hitters, etc etc.

 

 

You answered your own question. Running in front of the pitcher is a horrible idea batting 7th or 8th most of the time.

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13 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Don't 7/8 hitters tend to run wild because the cost of CS is much lower? In the AL there were more SBs from the 7-9 hitters than the 3-6 hitters. Despite 3 thru 6 guys getting on base twice nearly twice as much.(Cumulative, not in actual OBP%)

NL numbers get skewed by pitchers, pinch hitters, etc etc.

 

 

well I'd prefer him batting 9th to 8th, NL Or AL, if they put the pitcher 8th. 

 

But to me it's not an argument of "What he loses" so much as "What he doesn't gain," if that makes any sense. Maybe it sound like just semantics to other people. Like Amed stole 24 last year but did so on 35 Attempts (69% Conversion), and only hit 9 HRs. So I don't consider the power+speed output to be overwhelming. But you add so much to it by putting it at the top of the line-up. You all-but guarantee every opportunity for the SBs to go up. You get the most opps to his HRs. You get the best line-up behind you for R production. 

 

At the bottom of the line-up it is pedestrian. Like yes, I do see a path for Amed to steal 24+ Bases again, but ultimately to me it's more of a variable range at 8th, and an almost guarantee from 1st, if he happened to be lucky enough to get that opportunity. Amed might steal 24 but I dont' have the confidence that I would otherwise because of line-up spot and his own Conversion rate last year.

 

The BA is highly variable to me and the HR / R / RBI will be badNot worth it without the upside of 40+ SBs, and I don't see that here either. 

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Jed Lowrie has pain behind his left knee and will get MRI. If it turns into something Rosie might have himself back at the top of the order. 🤔

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On 2/7/2019 at 11:12 AM, BackyardBaseball said:

You’d hope he leads off, but he’ll need to get his Obp up stick there long term.  He did lead off 58 games last year and definitely did well, but for his own standards.  .301 from the leadoff spot isn’t great

 

.301 is pretty bad - However, Reyes had a .300 OBP his first full year (2005). Mets stuck with him, and maybe they will let Amed have a chance to grow into a star there. We'll see.

 

On 2/7/2019 at 12:46 PM, taobball said:

 

I do not see Amed Rosario as a lead-off hitter. I don't know what traits others particularly look for in a lead-off hitter, and I'm not saying he can't develop into that skill-set, but ideally I want my lead-off hitters to be much more like Brandon Nimmo than Amed Rosario. 

 

I don't really see how he "excelled" there necessarily. He had a .268/.301/.390 Slash Line with a 91 wRC+. He was a below average hitter and a .301 OBP is pretty bad from lead-off. I don't want my lead-off hitter having a .301 OBP. 

 

Amed Rosario looks like a 7 hitter to me, personally. 

 

I like Nimmo a lot also, but I see him more as a Dave Magadan type of player, with a significantly more exuberance. I'm confident that Nimmo would make a fine leadoff hitter from a stats perspective, but I still feel (more like 'hope', rather than 'feel' if I'm being honest with myself...) like Rosario was a top ranked prospect for a reason (and Nimmo never was). 

Yes, the track record of Mets 'top ranked prospects' panning out is as close to zilch as you can get, but I'm the type of person that when I'm in a casino and I see a string of 'reds' at the roulette table, I'm absolutely putting my money on black.

I like the 1,2,3 of Rosario, Nimmo, Cano. Lowrie can bat in the bottom half of the lineup.

First game tomorrow, LGM!!

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1 minute ago, Dakines said:

 

.301 is pretty bad - However, Reyes had a .300 OBP his first full year (2005). Mets stuck with him, and maybe they will let Amed have a chance to grow into a star there. We'll see.

 

 

I like Nimmo a lot also, but I see him more as a Dave Magadan type of player, with a significantly more exuberance. I'm confident that Nimmo would make a fine leadoff hitter from a stats perspective, but I still feel (more like 'hope', rather than 'feel' if I'm being honest with myself...) like Rosario was a top ranked prospect for a reason (and Nimmo never was). 

Yes, the track record of Mets 'top ranked prospects' panning out is as close to zilch as you can get, but I'm the type of person that when I'm in a casino and I see a string of 'reds' at the roulette table, I'm absolutely putting my money on black.

I like the 1,2,3 of Rosario, Nimmo, Cano. Lowrie can bat in the bottom half of the lineup.

First game tomorrow, LGM!!

 

Rosario's prospect ranking though does have a lot to do with his SS glove as well, which doesn't have anytihng to do with where he should bat. 

 

I see him as a 7th hitter based on his minor league career. Doesn't have a ton of power. Doesn't take walks. I see why some think he's a potentially .290-.300 hitter, but I really don't. I see him as a low-walk, .300-flat to .315 OBP guy with not a lot of power. The speed is nice, but ideally that's a 9-Hole Hitter in the AL. 

 

He's got a lot of time left, but that's more based on what I see in his minor league and tool projection. He had a great BABIP/BA in the minors but I don't like his BB% or ISO that much, in short. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Rosario's prospect ranking though does have a lot to do with his SS glove as well, which doesn't have anytihng to do with where he should bat. 

 

I see him as a 7th hitter based on his minor league career. Doesn't have a ton of power. Doesn't take walks. I see why some think he's a potentially .290-.300 hitter, but I really don't. I see him as a low-walk, .300-flat to .315 OBP guy with not a lot of power. The speed is nice, but ideally that's a 9-Hole Hitter in the AL. 

 

He's got a lot of time left, but that's more based on what I see in his minor league and tool projection. He had a great BABIP/BA in the minors but I don't like his BB% or ISO that much, in short. 

 

Yea, it's really just wishful thinking on my part at this point..

Per SNY/Metsblog, Callaway has indicated that Rosario will likely begin the year in the 8th spot.

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On 2/20/2019 at 1:34 PM, chud12 said:

Jed Lowrie has pain behind his left knee and will get MRI. If it turns into something Rosie might have himself back at the top of the order. 🤔

Apparently no structural damage but the season hasn't even started and Lowrie is no stranger to injury. I think your post has a lot of merit. 

Still a lot of unanswered questions but Rosario is interesting for what he brings to the table.

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On 2/20/2019 at 4:34 PM, chud12 said:

Jed Lowrie has pain behind his left knee and will get MRI. If it turns into something Rosie might have himself back at the top of the order. 🤔

 

Jed Lowrie's injury has been diagnosed as a capsule sprain in his left knee.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported the news. The team gave no estimate for how long Lowrie would be sidelined with the injury.

 

any1 have an idea about a timetable ? 

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https://metsmerizedonline.com/2019/02/mets-diagnose-lowrie-with-capsule-sprain-in-left-knee.html/

Doesn't sound like it's anything overly serious.  He wants to be ready for opening day, but who knows.  They still have no timetable regardless, but it seems it would be a surprise if he was out for an extended period.

I guess the only potential positive here for Rosario is if Lowrie misses any time, Rosario gets bumped up in the lineup and gets off to a hot start.

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4 hours ago, chud12 said:

 

Jed Lowrie's injury has been diagnosed as a capsule sprain in his left knee.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported the news. The team gave no estimate for how long Lowrie would be sidelined with the injury.

 

any1 have an idea about a timetable ? 

 

Did the Mets doctors recommend an amputation?

 

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4 hours ago, chud12 said:

Jed Lowrie's injury has been diagnosed as a capsule sprain in his left knee.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported the news. The team gave no estimate for how long Lowrie would be sidelined with the injury.

It's the Mets, so the actual injury could be anything from dirt on his knee to a torn ACL.

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1 minute ago, BigPapi44 said:

Any update from the team after the game?

X-rays negative per beat writers. Should be fine.

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

If Cano teaches him to take a walk I'll buy it. 

 

1 walk and 3 strikeouts in 23 PA this Spring. He is hitting .400, though.

If he does learn to take pitches he probably will become a super star, everything else is there.

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2/2 with a RBI today, hitting .364 on the spring. Not saying he's figured it all out or anything, but as someone I was monitoring coming in to spring training, he's made some nice improvements. 5:4 K:BB ratio. Small sample, but still pointing in a better direction.

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Working with cano helps...this guy is getting no love. He has already produced what we expect out of Hampson whom everyone loves

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Working with cano helps...this guy is getting no love. He has already produced what we expect out of Hampson whom everyone loves

Huh? I'm sure people are projecting better than a .676 OPS from Hampson.

Edited by MrBrown

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I'm underwhelmed so far. Batting approx .230 through 35 ABs. 3 Runs, 5 RBI (that's pretty decent actually) 1(?) steal and the worst stat of course is 13 Ks (3 BBs) for the cringe-worthy 37%K/4:1 K/BB. He's not moving up the lineup anytime soon. He needs to get rolling before Lowrie comes back because if this continues Mets would not hesitate to sit him I imagine.

His detractors appear to be winning the argument for now. Irony (at least at this point): argument above my post here b/n Hampson and Rosario. That's not to say I think both of them suck all year, it just strikes me as amusing a couple weeks in.

 

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