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Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

Is Malcolm Brown still a must own for TG owners?


Ideally, you have him, but it depends on bench and league size. If you're in a 10 team with relatively shallow benches, you may not have a choice. 

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

Is Malcolm Brown still a must own for TG owners?


Never was a must own.  Tonight is our night, Bro.  

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2 hours ago, CraftyRighty said:

Is Malcolm Brown still a must own for TG owners?

I'm inclined to say no because the offense hasn't looked as explosive as in past years. At least in shallower leagues like the 10-team I have Gurley in. Last year or the season before I would have definitely wanted Gurley's backup if he missed time. If Gurley missed time I would start one of my other RB's even if I had Brown.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'm inclined to say no because the offense hasn't looked as explosive as in past years. At least in shallower leagues like the 10-team I have Gurley in. Last year or the season before I would have definitely wanted Gurley's backup if he missed time. If Gurley missed time I would start one of my other RB's even if I had Brown.

Guy (non-Gurley owner) in my league spent major FAAB on Brown and he got dropped this week. 😂 I agree with your assessment.

Edited by FitzMagic

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9 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Guy (non-Gurley owner) in my league spent major FAAB on Brown and he got dropped this week. 😂 I agree with your assessment.

LOL, guy in my league spent 65% FAAB after week 1, also a non-Gurley owner.  Now I think he is holding just because he doesn't want it to go to waste. 

Will be interesting to see if they give Gurley the ball more tonight to run.  Yes, he was very involved in the passing game, but Goff also did throw the ball 68 times.  Let's see what a normal paced game looks like tonight.

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12 minutes ago, CooL said:

LOL, guy in my league spent 65% FAAB after week 1, also a non-Gurley owner.  Now I think he is holding just because he doesn't want it to go to waste. 

Will be interesting to see if they give Gurley the ball more tonight to run.  Yes, he was very involved in the passing game, but Goff also did throw the ball 68 times.  Let's see what a normal paced game looks like tonight.

Is TNF ever normal gave pace? Never know what you are going to get on TNF.

Edited by devaster

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11 minutes ago, CooL said:

LOL, guy in my league spent 65% FAAB after week 1, also a non-Gurley owner.  Now I think he is holding just because he doesn't want it to go to waste. 

Will be interesting to see if they give Gurley the ball more tonight to run.  Yes, he was very involved in the passing game, but Goff also did throw the ball 68 times.  Let's see what a normal paced game looks like tonight.

I’ve been saying I think Gurley gets a major workload increase this week. No way they let Goff throw it another 40+ times on a short week. 

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Is TNF ever normal gave pace? Never know what you are going to get on TNF.

So given the nature of people's expectations in this thread, Gurley 30 carries confirmed?

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

So given the nature of people's expectations in this thread, Gurley 30 carries confirmed?

I'm not on that train at all. The Rams have been sticking to their split, for the most part, between Gurley and Brown. I wouldn't all of a sudden expect to see an uptick of old Gurley with 90%+ snaps on offense.

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4 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'm not on that train at all. The Rams have been sticking to their split, for the most part, between Gurley and Brown. I wouldn't all of a sudden expect to see an uptick of old Gurley with 90%+ snaps on offense.

I was having a bit of fun.

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The Seahawks are way better against the run vs pass. I don’t see many ground yards but I do see upwards of 7 catches for him tonight, As far a Malcom B. Not much upside even without Gurley.  The best hope for more rush yards tonight is Wilson and Carson lay the ball on the ground at their prolific pace. 

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You guys kidding yourselves? Brown is absolutely a must own. You don’t know if Gurley will even play down the stretch. Look what happened last year. Someone dropped brown yesterday and I put in a claim to grab him had zero doubt in my mind. It’s your team but idk how you could sleep at night if you owned Gurley without brown.

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There is a real cost to rostering any handcuff who does not have standalone value, like Brown. That bench slot he ties up is valuable--depending on how long he languishes on your bench I would argue the value lost is similar to FAAB lost if you decide not to cuff and have to bid on him in the event of a Gurley injury. 

Handcuffing is very much like purchasing insurance. You are paying a little now so you don't have to theoretically have to pay more later. But there's always the chance you never cash on that insurance, or that the coverage isn't as good as you hoped (i.e. Brown becomes starter but only returns RB2- value). Owners will have to decide for themselves just how valuable that bench slot is relative to how valuable Brown would be if something happens to Gurley. 

Rams aren't doing a great job running the ball period and Brown is not some transcendental talent waiting in the wings. There is also another RB in this group in Henderson that could start seeing work if he were elevated to the backup role. For me the value proposition doesn't make sense for my league to roster a handcuff in Brown when I can use that spot for someone like Singletary. I don't think Brown is a must own for Gurley owners by any means. 

 

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The team is struggling to run block and McVay is not calling a whole lot of runs.  Regardless of how you feel about Gurley's health, these things are inherently true.

Why chase good money after bad handcuffing a bad situation?

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I remember brown was the so called cuff last year then they sign cj Anderson and everyone was bamboozled

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11 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

There is a real cost to rostering any handcuff who does not have standalone value, like Brown. That bench slot he ties up is valuable--depending on how long he languishes on your bench I would argue the value lost is similar to FAAB lost if you decide not to cuff and have to bid on him in the event of a Gurley injury. 

Handcuffing is very much like purchasing insurance. You are paying a little now so you don't have to theoretically have to pay more later. But there's always the chance you never cash on that insurance, or that the coverage isn't as good as you hoped (i.e. Brown becomes starter but only returns RB2- value). Owners will have to decide for themselves just how valuable that bench slot is relative to how valuable Brown would be if something happens to Gurley. 

Rams aren't doing a great job running the ball period and Brown is not some transcendental talent waiting in the wings. There is also another RB in this group in Henderson that could start seeing work if he were elevated to the backup role. For me the value proposition doesn't make sense for my league to roster a handcuff in Brown when I can use that spot for someone like Singletary. I don't think Brown is a must own for Gurley owners by any means. 

 

This whole theory of the rams not running the ball great is false. Both running backs are averaging 4.4 yards a carry. That’s a good number for the nfl. They may not be running it as good as last year or as much as last year but they are still effective. This is a long season too. The running game really starts to pick up in the winter. Defenses are worn down injured etc. They still have a lot of time to get it fixed. Also the biggest risk factor here is obviously Gurleys knee. I mean this is known. How much can he handle? Anyway in this particular situation for me it’s a no brainer to own brown. I’m not telling to cuff 2017 Gurley. This is 2019 Gurley were all talking about here.

Edited by StevenSC400

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3 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

This whole theory of the rams not running the ball great is false. Both running backs are averaging 4.4 yards a carry. That’s a good number for the nfl. They may not be running it as good as last year or as much as last year but they are still effective. This is a long season too. The running game really starts to pick up in the winter. Defenses are worn down injured etc. They still have a lot of time to get it fixed. Also the biggest risk factor here is obviously Gurleys knee. I mean this is known. How much can he handle? Anyway in this particular situation for me it’s a no brainer to own brown.

 

You are assuming that the o-line is going to stay healthy, improve, and the Rams are going to improve the run game because of this.  Okay.  You are also assuming that as the season goes along, defenses are going to get worse because of the physical toll of the season.  I see your logic but I don't agree with it. .  

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6 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

This whole theory of the rams not running the ball great is false. Both running backs are averaging 4.4 yards a carry. That’s a good number for the nfl. They may not be running it as good as last year or as much as last year but they are still effective. This is a long season too. The running game really starts to pick up in the winter. Defenses are worn down injured etc. They also still have a lot of time to get it fixed. Also the biggest risk factor here is obviously Gurleys knee. I mean this is known. How much can he handle? Anyway in this particular situation for me it’s a no brainer to own brown.

 The team is not running the ball often.  They're on pace for 388 carries, which would put them at one carry less than last year's Bucs.  I don't have a stat for YPC in my league.

They've been efficient, but not voluminous because they have a guard and a center who had 6 starts of NFL experience between them last year and their best blocking tight end was injured.  As a Gurley owner, I hope it gets better.  But the only reason the efficiency numbers look good is because of limited exposure, that's not a good indictment for a blocking unit.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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8 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

There is a real cost to rostering any handcuff who does not have standalone value, like Brown. That bench slot he ties up is valuable--depending on how long he languishes on your bench I would argue the value lost is similar to FAAB lost if you decide not to cuff and have to bid on him in the event of a Gurley injury. 

Handcuffing is very much like purchasing insurance. You are paying a little now so you don't have to theoretically have to pay more later. But there's always the chance you never cash on that insurance, or that the coverage isn't as good as you hoped (i.e. Brown becomes starter but only returns RB2- value). Owners will have to decide for themselves just how valuable that bench slot is relative to how valuable Brown would be if something happens to Gurley. 

Rams aren't doing a great job running the ball period and Brown is not some transcendental talent waiting in the wings. There is also another RB in this group in Henderson that could start seeing work if he were elevated to the backup role. For me the value proposition doesn't make sense for my league to roster a handcuff in Brown when I can use that spot for someone like Singletary. I don't think Brown is a must own for Gurley owners by any means. 

Apt analogy and you're right no handcuff is must-own. It truly depends on the league size and your depth. However, I think Brown would come in and do well and be at least an RB2 with RB1 upside. This is valuable to Gurley owners without great depth or even non-Gurley owners in deeper leagues. Maybe he would flop though, who knows. Someone mentioned him getting passed over for CJA last year. I'm pretty sure Brown got hurt last year and that's why they brought in CJA otherwise people wouldn't be doubting him so much.

 

Most of the recent flurry of discussion was due to the "Yeah, I'll just pick him up off waivers when Gurley gets hurt rather than waste a roster spot" comment. Yeah nah

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9 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

I remember brown was the so called cuff last year then they sign cj Anderson and everyone was bamboozled

Brown went on IR weeks before CJ got there. Brown would have filled in and done virtually the same thing in Weeks 16 and 17 against ARI and SF.

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I’m hanging on to M Brown is because unlike other lottery ticket RBs who will have value “if the starter gets hurt” there is still a lot of talk about whether Gurley “is hurt” and ongoing speculation as to “whether his knee will hold up.”

When it comes to lottery tickets, you need every increase in probability you can get and Gurley’s knee provides more than most.

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16 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Brown went on IR weeks before CJ got there. Brown would have filled in and done virtually the same thing in Weeks 16 and 17 against ARI and SF.

Ahhh you're right, that's my mistake, then yes get brown if you can.

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Pretty much there must be a player on your roster that you're not using or haven't used yet..... 

I got brown in one league and the other I can't afford it ATM at 2-2 and small bench space. 

It really depends if you can afford to waste a spot or not

Edited by CABLE87

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