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Tom Brady 2019 Outlook

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It depends what your definition of GOAT is. Honestly, i'm not too into NFL history like I am with the NBA so I can only speak from guys i've seen. 

PERSONALLY, I rather have Rodgers and Manning. This is not to discredit Brady they are just better football players.

It's funny how much credit we give to rings in one of the most team dominant sports in the world. Brady is more like Tim Duncan than Lebron. He's obviously great but in terms of talent, skill, and just flat out ability he clearly isn't on THAT level. 

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What these playoffs have taught me is that it's not only how well a QB can play in general, but how well he can play in high-volume passing games.

We just saw how a high-volume passing game -- against an average pass defense, mind you (Tennessee's) --absolutely ruined the performance of the likely league MVP at quarterback. It's going to be rare that a QB can progress through the playoffs and win a Super Bowl without playing such a game.

So the question becomes, who are the league's best quarterbacks in general, and who among them shows a pattern of performance that doesn't plummet in high-volume games? Just guessing at this point (without doing the quantitative research), I'd say that's Brees, Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers. If Brady's 2019 season was an aberration as opposed to an initial indication of his permanent decline, then we can include him in that group, but I don't think we know yet. Same goes for Roethlisberger.

I just took a look at Kirk Cousins out of curiosity, and when he has a below-average number of pass attempts in games, his average passer rating is 105.9. When his number of pass attempts has been above-average, his average passer rating is 89.9. Compare that toMahomes, for example, for whom those figures are 111.7 and 104.9.

Now, that's not to say a lesser QB can't win a Super Bowl, but history has shown us that he needs to be on his rookie contract for that to have any decent likelihood of occurring.

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50 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It depends what your definition of GOAT is. Honestly, i'm not too into NFL history like I am with the NBA so I can only speak from guys i've seen. 

PERSONALLY, I rather have Rodgers and Manning. This is not to discredit Brady they are just better football players.

It's funny how much credit we give to rings in one of the most team dominant sports in the world. Brady is more like Tim Duncan than Lebron. He's obviously great but in terms of talent, skill, and just flat out ability he clearly isn't on THAT level. 

Good analogy.  Duncan (like Brady) was just a good player.  Both took advantage of being in great systems with great coaches.  Duncan was just really tall but average in terms of b-ball skill.  Had he been on any other team, we wouldn’t even know who he was.  Other than remembering him as a bust player similar to Darko.

 

Darko who?  What’s a Darko?

Exactly.  

Edited by K197040
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25 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Good analogy.  Duncan (like Brady) was just a good player.  Both took advantage of being in great systems with great coaches.  Duncan was just really tall but average in terms of b-ball skill.  Had he been on any other team, we wouldn’t even know who he was.  Other than remembering him as a bust player similar to Darko.

 

Darko who?  What’s a Darko?

Exactly.  

 

LOL at saying this as if it's some sort of fact. The fact is we do know who Tim Duncan was and he was a great player who won a lot of games and got a lot of rings. Clinging to any other scenario that didn't happen and claiming it to be a fact that it would have been different under other circumstances doesn't make any sense. Just like it doesn't make sense to say about Tom Brady.

Edited by ThreadKiller
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31 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

LOL at saying this as if it's some sort of fact. The fact is we do know who Tim Duncan was and he was a great player who won a lot of games and got a lot of rings. Clinging to any other scenario that didn't happen and claiming it to be a fact that it would have been different under other circumstances doesn't make any sense. Just like it doesn't make sense to say about Tom Brady.

My point being that both guys are just good.  Not great. And we really can’t even say for sure how good they are since we can’t evaluate them in different circumstances.

But as an NBA fan, neigh, expert, I can pretty much tell you that Duncan would be just another tall dude had he played anywhere else.  Noah level probably. 
 

And I think we can safely say the same about Brady.  

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

Good analogy.  Duncan (like Brady) was just a good player.  Both took advantage of being in great systems with great coaches.  Duncan was just really tall but average in terms of b-ball skill.  Had he been on any other team, we wouldn’t even know who he was.  Other than remembering him as a bust player similar to Darko.

 

Is this some kind of satire I'm missing ?He's was just really tall and average.  My god. Duncan is probably one of the top 20 players to ever play the game. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

It depends what your definition of GOAT is. Honestly, i'm not too into NFL history like I am with the NBA so I can only speak from guys i've seen. 

PERSONALLY, I rather have Rodgers and Manning. This is not to discredit Brady they are just better football players.

It's funny how much credit we give to rings in one of the most team dominant sports in the world. Brady is more like Tim Duncan than Lebron. He's obviously great but in terms of talent, skill, and just flat out ability he clearly isn't on THAT level. 

I cannot understand how can anybody compare a football player to a basketball player. It makes absolutely no sense. Two different games ... 

Big games baby.. Tom Brady is the GOAT. Do you know that Peyton’s playoff record is 14-13, winning % (.519) & Aaron Rodgers is 10-7 (589) while Tom has a record of 30-11 (.732) . Those numbers tell the whole story Tom is terrific, he is the QB in a big game you would want.... if you asked 100 ex NFL coaches 90% would say give me Tom.... it is a fact. 

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

And we really can’t even say for sure how good they are since we can’t evaluate them in different circumstances.


Haha. If that’s true than it’s true for literally every player in every sport since you can’t evaluate them outside the circumstances they are in. This makes no sense.

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58 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Is this some kind of satire I'm missing ?He's was just really tall and average.  My god. Duncan is probably one of the top 20 players to ever play the game. 


He’s a self proclaimed basketball expert though!

Well I’m a reality expert and I think this whole “debate” is nonsense.

Tom Brady is a great football player. Arguably the best player all time. Tom Duncan was a great basketball player and a HOF. Coming up with scenarios to evaluate them outside of the circumstances of reality is a waste of time and frankly makes no sense.

 

It’s like saying, yeah Brady is great, but would he great if he was a Bengal? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Would Peyton Manning have had such a great career if he was drafted by the Redskins? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Would Greg Maddux have won so many MLB games if he was never a Brave and instead was a Phillie? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Get my point? Yeah, circumstances that didn’t happen can’t be proved and are pointless to debate when evaluating a player so who cares.

Nonsense.

Edited by ThreadKiller
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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

He's obviously great but in terms of talent, skill, and just flat out ability he clearly isn't on THAT level. 

 

He's won 3 MVPs. "Not on that level" is a joke. When he had comparable weapons in his prime he had MVP seasons.

 

Is the spiral he throws not pretty enough like Rodgers lol. 

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1 hour ago, sSektor said:

Is the spiral he throws not pretty enough like Rodgers lol. 

These days? Yes.  Are we still talking about his 2019 outlook here?  As for 2020, a lot depends on whether they fortify the WR room.  He can’t continue thriving off of a banged-up Edelman and White.

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9 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I cannot understand how can anybody compare a football player to a basketball player. It makes absolutely no sense. Two different games ... 

Big games baby.. Tom Brady is the GOAT. Do you know that Peyton’s playoff record is 14-13, winning % (.519) & Aaron Rodgers is 10-7 (589) while Tom has a record of 30-11 (.732) . Those numbers tell the whole story Tom is terrific, he is the QB in a big game you would want.... if you asked 100 ex NFL coaches 90% would say give me Tom.... it is a fact. 

I forgot Tom Brady plays by himself in big games. Here's the Patriots defense in league ranking in terms of PPG allowed in his career:

6th, 17th, 1st, 3rd, 17th, 2nd, 4th, , 2nd, 4th, 8th, 16th, 9th, 10th, 8th, 9th, 1st, 5th, 7th, 1st

In 18 seasons he's had a top 10 defense 15 times. He's had a top 5 defense 9 times. The dude has played with a top 5 defense half of his career. He's played with arguably the GOAT TE, arguably the most gifted WR of all time, and the greatest coach of all time. 

Yes though, the way Tom Brady motivates his defense is amazing. Rodgers could never will his defense to such heights. Brady is such an amazing teammate and plays top level defense. Incredible. 

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Rodgers has had a top 5 defense ONCE in his career. 

He won the Super Bowl that year.

It's a shame though. If only he could play defense as good as Brady. Maybe then he would be more clutch and win more rings. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I forgot Tom Brady plays by himself in big games. Here's the Patriots defense in league ranking in terms of PPG allowed in his career:

6th, 17th, 1st, 3rd, 17th, 2nd, 4th, , 2nd, 4th, 8th, 16th, 9th, 10th, 8th, 9th, 1st, 5th, 7th, 1st

In 18 seasons he's had a top 10 defense 15 times. He's had a top 5 defense 9 times. The dude has played with a top 5 defense half of his career. He's played with arguably the GOAT TE, arguably the most gifted WR of all time, and the greatest coach of all time. 

Yes though, the way Tom Brady motivates his defense is amazing. Rodgers could never will his defense to such heights. Brady is such an amazing teammate and plays top level defense. Incredible. 

 

Where did anyone say that? I'll wait...

Using THAT as the defense to criticism of comparing a basketball player to an NFL player is quite the head scratcher. You should cut back on your salt, man. This much has to be bad for you.

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Rodgers claim to fame was he was the most talented thrower of the football ever. Except now Mahomes exists so that obviously isn’t true. Rodgers has been average going on 3 seasons now. He gets a pass but if it was Brady everyone would be screaming “sYsTeM” like they usually do. And when Brady has MVP seasons people also use the system argument. It’s honestly really funny.

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32 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Rodgers claim to fame was he was the most talented thrower of the football ever. Except now Mahomes exists so that obviously isn’t true. Rodgers has been average going on 3 seasons now. He gets a pass but if it was Brady everyone would be screaming “sYsTeM” like they usually do. And when Brady has MVP seasons people also use the system argument. It’s honestly really funny.

 

I don't know if I'd call Rodgers "average" but he is certainly not what some people seem to think.

And I agree 100% about Rodgers getting a pass and that if it was Brady, the haters would be living in this thread to make sure everyone knew about it...Oh, wait.

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14 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:


He’s a self proclaimed basketball expert though!

Well I’m a reality expert and I think this whole “debate” is nonsense.

Tom Brady is a great football player. Arguably the best player all time. Tom Duncan was a great basketball player and a HOF. Coming up with scenarios to evaluate them outside of the circumstances of reality is a waste of time and frankly makes no sense.

 

It’s like saying, yeah Brady is great, but would he great if he was a Bengal? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Would Peyton Manning have had such a great career if he was drafted by the Redskins? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Would Greg Maddux have won so many MLB games if he was never a Brave and instead was a Phillie? WHO KNOWS AND WHO CARES? Get my point? Yeah, circumstances that didn’t happen can’t be proved and are pointless to debate when evaluating a player so who cares.

Nonsense.

Agree but you do need a certain amount of base talent to combine with the correct system and supporting cast to pull off what TB12 did.  Put Lamar Jackson on the Dolphins and they'd waste him the same way they wasted (evidently) Tannehill.  ARod arguably had greater physical gifts than TB12 and theoretically could be wearing those 6 rings now but didn't have those other coaching/teammate/competition elements.  Put TB12 on the Dolphins and he'd still burn with desire to win and make everyone around him better (to the extent possible) but there's only so much you can do when you don't have much talent around you.  Plenty of teams out there with one or two truly transcendent superstars and while those guys are still amazing they rot away on a team going nowhere.  Witness what happened to Barry Sanders for years playing on clueless Lions teams.  Same would have happened to Brady if he played there. 

That being said, Bellichek, TB12, and the Pats organization have been phenomenal about putting together the best possible formula each year to make everyone successful.  What they do with average talent is amazing, it seems like they have a supernatural gift for figuring out what a player is good at and using them that way.  And then leveraging that skill to the hilt and creating synergies with the other 50+ players and what they do well to create a "better than the sum of its parts" team.  I don't think I've ever seen a team like the Patriots use so many varied ways to win and not fixate on just one mode (like "exotic smashmouth").  The amount of creativity, plain hard work to figure things out, and a gameplan that literally changes week-to-week based upon the opponent are really the secret weapon that powers TB12. 

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25 minutes ago, jumper said:

Agree but you do need a certain amount of base talent to combine with the correct system and supporting cast to pull off what TB12 did.  Put Lamar Jackson on the Dolphins and they'd waste him the same way they wasted (evidently) Tannehill.  ARod arguably had greater physical gifts than TB12 and theoretically could be wearing those 6 rings now but didn't have those other coaching/teammate/competition elements.  Put TB12 on the Dolphins and he'd still burn with desire to win and make everyone around him better (to the extent possible) but there's only so much you can do when you don't have much talent around you.  Plenty of teams out there with one or two truly transcendent superstars and while those guys are still amazing they rot away on a team going nowhere.  Witness what happened to Barry Sanders for years playing on clueless Lions teams.  Same would have happened to Brady if he played there. 

That being said, Bellichek, TB12, and the Pats organization have been phenomenal about putting together the best possible formula each year to make everyone successful.  What they do with average talent is amazing, it seems like they have a supernatural gift for figuring out what a player is good at and using them that way.  And then leveraging that skill to the hilt and creating synergies with the other 50+ players and what they do well to create a "better than the sum of its parts" team.  I don't think I've ever seen a team like the Patriots use so many varied ways to win and not fixate on just one mode (like "exotic smashmouth").  The amount of creativity, plain hard work to figure things out, and a gameplan that literally changes week-to-week based upon the opponent are really the secret weapon that powers TB12. 

 

I completely agree that all players need a supporting cast in order to succeed. I feel like that's obvious, especially when it comes to the ultimate team sport. I will say though, of course circumstances would be different if circumstances would be different. So what? Tom Brady might not be Tom Brady if he wasn't a Patriot. Joe Montana wouldn't be Montana if he were on a different team. Same goes for literally every player in every sport so I'm not really understanding the point of that "debate". Claiming with false confidence that a player wouldn't be as successful if they had different circumstances just seems silly to me. It's like saying "that wouldn't have been a touchdown if he didn't catch it." Well, no kidding! But he did catch it and that's all we know that happened and anything else is PURE SPECULATION.

Brady has been successful despite enormous roster turnover throughout his career. This is a fact. Rodgers has not been as successful despite enormous roster turnover throughout his career. Also a fact. Would their individual successes be different if they switched places? Who knows since it 100% can NOT be proven. So with that said, WHO CARES?

 

It's like arguing if Pete Alonso would have lead the MLB in homers last year if he played for a team other than the Mets. LOL who cares?

Edited by ThreadKiller

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I don't know if I'd call Rodgers "average" but he is certainly not what some people seem to think.

 

Average was a little strong but his TD/Int ratio hides the sack rate. He takes some terrible sacks because of how long he holds onto the ball. It’s to the point where it seems he’d rather take a sack than risk an int while giving his WR a chance.

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20 hours ago, K197040 said:

Good analogy.  Duncan (like Brady) was just a good player.  Both took advantage of being in great systems with great coaches.  Duncan was just really tall but average in terms of b-ball skill.  Had he been on any other team, we wouldn’t even know who he was.  Other than remembering him as a bust player similar to Darko.

 

Darko who?  What’s a Darko?

Exactly.  

 

Is this sarcasm?

 

Hard to tell sometimes. 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Rodgers has had a top 5 defense ONCE in his career. 

He won the Super Bowl that year.

It's a shame though. If only he could play defense as good as Brady. Maybe then he would be more clutch and win more rings. 

 

Brady hasn't had a top 5 D for all his Super Bowl wins though so this post is meaningless.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I forgot Tom Brady plays by himself in big games. Here's the Patriots defense in league ranking in terms of PPG allowed in his career:

6th, 17th, 1st, 3rd, 17th, 2nd, 4th, , 2nd, 4th, 8th, 16th, 9th, 10th, 8th, 9th, 1st, 5th, 7th, 1st

In 18 seasons he's had a top 10 defense 15 times. He's had a top 5 defense 9 times. The dude has played with a top 5 defense half of his career. He's played with arguably the GOAT TE, arguably the most gifted WR of all time, and the greatest coach of all time. 

Yes though, the way Tom Brady motivates his defense is amazing. Rodgers could never will his defense to such heights. Brady is such an amazing teammate and plays top level defense. Incredible. 

He played with Moss for 2 seasons(only one when he got a motivated Randy) and Gronk while hands down the GOAT TE only played 16 games once.  Rodgers and Manning have/had consistently had top notch weapons throughout their careers.  Same can't be said for Brady.

Edited by youngrice

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36 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Brady hasn't had a top 5 D for all his Super Bowl wins though so this post is meaningless.

 

Not to mention he threw for over 500 yards without his 2 best receivers against the Eagles and the Pats still lost. But if you hate Brady you can just pretend that game doesn't exist.

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