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Cooper Kupp 2019 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Kupp has been playing plenty until this week. I think it was just a matchup thing vs SEA (I think they even did it vs SEA in the 1st qtr of their last game vs them). I don't think they ran the 2 TE set a lot in between. Hopefully its not an every week thing. Hard to bench Kupp vs Dallas who have been getting crushed by WRs the last few weeks.

Yeah think you still have to roll him out there this week. Miller and Beasley have had back to back good games vs Dallas in that slot role

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7 hours ago, Jrt80 said:

I’m not ignoring trends, actually I’m observing them. Your right when everything is under control Goff has the luxury of seeing his other targets (like woods) however when the crucial plays occurs and it’s 3rd and long or the rams are in the readzone, Goff becomes  inherently aware of Kupps location. That’s what my eyes tell me. 
 

If you watched the rams play at all this season you can just tell that Goff trust Kupp the most when things are on the line. 


I don’t necessarily agree with this, but let’s assume you are correct... You WANT the guy who is getting attention when Goff has things under control and McVay has his offense rolling.  Right now that’s Woods and the TEs (and Gurley). Goff under pressure isn’t productive for anyone except the opposing defense.  

 

All we care about in fantasy is production, and in Goff’s 4 worst games, Kupp has been terrible.  If Kupp was the “safety blanket” or whatever, he should have had a decent floor in those games, and Woods, etc. should have been the ones to suffer since he didn’t have the “luxury of seeing his other targets.”

 

Kupp’s stats in those 4 games:

 

SF: 4/17/0

@ PIT: 0/0/0

CHI: 3/53/0

BAL: 6/35/0


Kupp still leads the team in Red Zone targets with 15, but it has evened out since his hot start.  The TEs now have 18 combined (9 each), and Woods has 9 as well... and just got his first TD from a designed play inside the 10 last night.

 

Will I most likely start him against Dallas? Probably... they’ve been getting torched by WRs lately, including Beasley out of the slot. Miller had a solid game as well, even though ARob was the one I’m who exploded.

 

In San Francisco? No way.

 

...and please don’t belittle me, I’ve watched the Rams play plenty this season.

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Kupp owner here, def some concern going on as hes had the TD deodorant on the last two weeks. im not sure what the snap% was for him last night but while watching the game it seemed like he was barely on the field compared to Woods. Him and Higbee have certainly taken over as the top two receiving options these last few weeks. Probably going to be forced to start him next week but the confidence level has taken a big hit. Hes looking like a WR2/3 right now. The offense is rolling right now so it will be hard to imagine them switching much up going forward.

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2 hours ago, yanksman said:

Kupp has been playing plenty until this week. I think it was just a matchup thing vs SEA (I think they even did it vs SEA in the 1st qtr of their last game vs them). I don't think they ran the 2 TE set a lot in between. Hopefully its not an every week thing. Hard to bench Kupp vs Dallas who have been getting crushed by WRs the last few weeks.

 

I thought SEA was poor in coverage against the slot, so I was expecting a big game from Kupp. Kupp had 17 targets in the first matchup with them and now he's only playing 20 snaps. 

 

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6 minutes ago, pascuccis1 said:

Kupp owner here, def some concern going on as hes had the TD deodorant on the last two weeks. im not sure what the snap% was for him last night but while watching the game it seemed like he was barely on the field compared to Woods. Him and Higbee have certainly taken over as the top two receiving options these last few weeks. Probably going to be forced to start him next week but the confidence level has taken a big hit. Hes looking like a WR2/3 right now. The offense is rolling right now so it will be hard to imagine them switching much up going forward.

 

20 snaps/ 29% 

 

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/12/09/nfl-rams-snap-counts-seahawks-week-14/

 

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33 minutes ago, pascuccis1 said:

 

Jeez, It looked bad while watching, but I didn't know it was that bad... smh

Yikes. Anyone have any insight into this? Hopefully it was because they went so run heavy. The 4 targets is very concerning. 

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1 minute ago, newyork2la said:

Yikes. Anyone have any insight into this? Hopefully it was because they went so run heavy. The 4 targets is very concerning. 

Game plan specific. They built around Gurley/running game and high % targets to Woods and Higbee. And it worked. Again. I don't really see them changing this gameplan against Dallas unless Dak and Zeke come out hot and they're forced to catch up. Still, how do you bench a guy that gets 4 for 50 and a TD on 20 snaps knowing it could be 100 and 2 TDs any given week if they need it?

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14 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

The upside is he'll be cheap next year.


Eh, I dunno. All it takes is one owner to believe and with the body of work he’s put together over the last two seasons, it’s obvious how much upside he has.

 

I doubt he falls past the 3rd round in snake/Top 15 WR in auctions.

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17 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

The upside is he'll be cheap next year.

 

True, though whether I draft him will depend on what the Rams do to upgrade their offensive line. I know they're finding some better consistency lately, but I'm not convinced they have much talent there and they have zero cap room and zero 1st round picks. 

Kupp's snap count won't always be as small as it was last week, but I think his reduced role is going to stick for the foreseeable future. Maybe next year he starts playing some outside receiver, but I sort of doubt it since Woods, Cooks, and Reynolds will all be back. 

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Im not sure if he is startable anymore given his ROS schedule (DAL then SF)

He has been ultra efficient in the last two weeks but without those TDs he is a dud... don't understand why the experts still have him ranked in the top 10-15 this week

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9 minutes ago, jpark211 said:

Im not sure if he is startable anymore given his ROS schedule (DAL then SF)

He has been ultra efficient in the last two weeks but without those TDs he is a dud... don't understand why the experts still have him ranked in the top 10-15 this week

It is a terrifying start next week ?  I may actually bench him so I do not have to watch Robert Woods and Higbee gobble up every single pass.    Without a TD he is going to kill you in week 15.    Does anyone think there Is a reason  Mcvay returns to the old game plan of feeding Kupp the ball ?  

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29 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

It is a terrifying start next week ?  I may actually bench him so I do not have to watch Robert Woods and Higbee gobble up every single pass.    Without a TD he is going to kill you in week 15.    Does anyone think there Is a reason  Mcvay returns to the old game plan of feeding Kupp the ball ?  

 

I doubt this happens unless Dak and the Cowboys somehow gets ahead significantly in the first two quarters

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I do think there is risk with Kupp.  The 12 personnel is obviously working well for the Rams.  I’m not sure if I’ll use him or not.  He could easily put up 3-21.

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Interesting tidbit from reddit for those concerned about his production last week... 

Quote

McVay is famous for running 11 personnel a lot, that means 3 wrs are on the field. When he’s played the Seahawks both times this year he’s come out in 12 personnel with 2 tight ends and therefor only 2 wrs.

They actually did the same thing the first time they played, but when the Rams are in passing situations they go back to 11. Cooper did half of his damage in the first game at the end of the first half on a 2 minute drive, literally had 50 and a td on one drive.

It’s a game plan thing to take advantage of the run and control the clock

 

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On 12/10/2019 at 3:01 PM, BadMoon said:

Interesting tidbit from reddit for those concerned about his production last week... 

 

 

But the question is... will this be the same game plan against Dallas ?  Since week 10 he has had 4, 3, 10, 6 and 4 targets !     Without the last two weeks touchdowns he would have been completely unusable.    

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6 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

 

But the question is... will this be the same game plan against Dallas ?  Since week 10 he has had 4, 3, 10, 6 and 4 targets !     Without the last two weeks touchdowns he would have been completely unusable.    


 

don’t slot WRs do well against Dallas?

I think it might be a vulnerability 

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What concerns me the most about Kupp is that his ceiling appears to be capped and he now has a pretty low floor. I just don't think he's going to see enough targets to have a chance to break out which makes him completely TD dependent. 

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Cooper Kupp: What in the world was Sean McVay doing last week? Well, it worked, so I can’t be too critical. Still, why in the world would Kupp play just 19 snaps? Afterward, McVay said that Kupp is used like a fullback at times with how much blocking he does, so he wanted to keep him fresh. The change in personnel worked early in the game, but it did slowly unravel, so expect Kupp to resume his normal workload this week. We didn’t see the Bears attack it heavily, but Cooper Kupp: What in the world was Sean McVay doing last week? Well, it worked, so I can’t be too critical. Still, why in the world would Kupp play just 19 snaps? Afterward, McVay said that Kupp is used like a fullback at times with how much blocking he does, so he wanted to keep him fresh. The change in personnel worked early in the game, but it did slowly unravel, so expect Kupp to resume his normal workload this week. We didn’t see the Bears attack it heavily, but the Cowboys secondary has a massive weakness. After losing cornerback Anthony Brownfor the year, they’ve had to turn to Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Since taking over, he’s allowed 25-of-32 passing for 369 yards and two touchdowns. He also has two interceptions in his coverage, but we don’t care much about those from a fantasy perspective. Of the nine receivers who’ve scored 13-plus PPR points against the Cowboys, four of them have been slot-heavy receivers, including a six-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance to Cole Beasley two weeks ago. He’s the safety valve for Goff and he also happens to have the best matchup on the field. Put him in lineups as what should be a sturdy WR2 with the best matchup on the field.go. He’s the safety valve for Goff and he also happens to have the best matchup on the field. Put him in lineups as what should be a sturdy WR2 with the best matchup on the field.

 

This is from Tagliere’s breakdown.

I am seriously torn on Kupp.
 

On the one hand, Never Bench Your Studs, and Kupp has been a stud for a lot of this season. And the matchup looks good for Kupp, the best of all the Rams WRs plus he’s Goffs TD go-to WR.

But, I have to wonder if Taggs has really noticed Kupp’s targets over the last few weeks. I find it especially concerning given how McVay’s scheme featuring Kupp was exposed and he refused to change it until the results were so bad he finally did a few weeks ago. Kupp not only appears to be used much less in this scheme but McVay seems to be someone who is pretty inflexible when it comes to changing his scheme regardless of the matchup.
 

I’ve been burned badly benching studs and the matchup looks good and the point total is high (48.) I just don’t feel good about this though. 
 

Can anyone tip this scale for me?

Edited by FreakFries
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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

Cooper Kupp: What in the world was Sean McVay doing last week? Well, it worked, so I can’t be too critical. Still, why in the world would Kupp play just 19 snaps? Afterward, McVay said that Kupp is used like a fullback at times with how much blocking he does, so he wanted to keep him fresh. The change in personnel worked early in the game, but it did slowly unravel, so expect Kupp to resume his normal workload this week. We didn’t see the Bears attack it heavily, but Cooper Kupp: What in the world was Sean McVay doing last week? Well, it worked, so I can’t be too critical. Still, why in the world would Kupp play just 19 snaps? Afterward, McVay said that Kupp is used like a fullback at times with how much blocking he does, so he wanted to keep him fresh. The change in personnel worked early in the game, but it did slowly unravel, so expect Kupp to resume his normal workload this week. We didn’t see the Bears attack it heavily, but the Cowboys secondary has a massive weakness. After losing cornerback Anthony Brownfor the year, they’ve had to turn to Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Since taking over, he’s allowed 25-of-32 passing for 369 yards and two touchdowns. He also has two interceptions in his coverage, but we don’t care much about those from a fantasy perspective. Of the nine receivers who’ve scored 13-plus PPR points against the Cowboys, four of them have been slot-heavy receivers, including a six-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance to Cole Beasley two weeks ago. He’s the safety valve for Goff and he also happens to have the best matchup on the field. Put him in lineups as what should be a sturdy WR2 with the best matchup on the field.go. He’s the safety valve for Goff and he also happens to have the best matchup on the field. Put him in lineups as what should be a sturdy WR2 with the best matchup on the field.

 

This is from Tagliere’s breakdown.

I am seriously torn on Kupp.
 

On the one hand, Never Bench Your Studs, and Kupp has been a stud for a lot of this season. And the matchup looks good for Kupp, the best of all the Rams WRs plus he’s Goffs TD go-to WR.

But, I have to wonder if Taggs has really noticed Kupp’s targets over the last few weeks. I find it especially concerning given how McVay’s scheme featuring Kupp was exposed and he refused to change it until the results were so bad he finally did a few weeks ago. Kupp not only appears to be used much less in this scheme but McVay seems to be someone who is pretty inflexible when it comes to changing his scheme regardless of the matchup.
 

I’ve been burned badly benching studs and the matchup looks good and the point total is high (48.) I just don’t feel good about this though. 
 

Can anyone tip this scale for me?

 

I think the real question is can the Cowboys stop the run. Another consideration is whether the Cowboys can get ahead of the Ram by 2+ TDs. If these two factors come to fruition, McVay will have no choice but to use his WRs more. Let's just hope that this is the case

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You can see Cooper Kupp's snap counts here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuppCo00.htm

Clearly it was an outlier as he's only been under 70% in two other games, one also against Seattle (in which he balled out) and another at Atlanta that turned into a blowout.

It's tough to say, it really is, but the data says he will be back up over 70% of snaps because last game was a huge outlier. It's likely, imo, that while the Rams will try to use 12 packages and run more again, in this game and others, they're not going to rely it on as heavily as they did last game. I really don't think that McVay is resistant to change his game plan at all for what their team needs or what the other team's weakness is. That seems like a false narrative to me. 

It depends on your other options, but I'm probably going to go down swinging with Kupp knowing this game could feature some offense and he's still got 100yds and 2tds potential. 

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30 minutes ago, aapox said:

You can see Cooper Kupp's snap counts here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuppCo00.htm

Clearly it was an outlier as he's only been under 70% in two other games, one also against Seattle (in which he balled out) and another at Atlanta that turned into a blowout.

It's tough to say, it really is, but the data says he will be back up over 70% of snaps because last game was a huge outlier. It's likely, imo, that while the Rams will try to use 12 packages and run more again, in this game and others, they're not going to rely it on as heavily as they did last game. I really don't think that McVay is resistant to change his game plan at all for what their team needs or what the other team's weakness is. That seems like a false narrative to me. 

It depends on your other options, but I'm probably going to go down swinging with Kupp knowing this game could feature some offense and he's still got 100yds and 2tds potential. 


You could be right about McVay’s scheme approach, I’m not sure that’s just an impression not a deep dive.

What concerns me isn’t Kupp’s snaps, it’s his targets which have fallen off a cliff since the bye week compared to the pre bye week. 
 

The above point about the Cowboys needing to score points is another concern. 
 

You’re point about Kupp’s upside (and my other options) is what is killing me. He has done so well for me this year.

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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:


You could be right about McVay’s scheme approach, I’m not sure that’s just an impression not a deep dive.

What concerns me isn’t Kupp’s snaps, it’s his targets which have fallen off a cliff since the bye week compared to the pre bye week. 
 

The above point about the Cowboys needing to score points is another concern. 
 

You’re point about Kupp’s upside (and my other options) is what is killing me. He has done so well for me this year.

 

He's the 2019 version of 2018 Thielen man, it sucks. The targets and yards have gone way down. It really depends on your options, as he's not a must start any more. The good news is that when he plays, he's still very involved and very efficient. If he connects on that TD throw last week he goes from an okay game to a very good game. I find it hard to believe that they're going to keep him as a peripheral piece much longer. The Cowboys have been on the skids but they tend to play pretty well at home. Hopefully we get the over.

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