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Travis Shaw 2019 Outlook

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Cut ties with him for Hoerner & another ML pick in an NL only dynasty. couldn't wait til that average went even lower.

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Yeah I had to move on, injuries are starting to pile up and time has run out for him on my squads. I'm sure theres a decent run in him at some point his season but with his poor platoon splits and loss of contact skills this season it's time to free up a roster spot, I'm not seeing the upside I did at the start of the year.

 

I'm fairly certain he'll be on waivers until that hot streak so I'll be keeping an eye out for sure but yikes what a bust of a top 100 pick.

Edited by !!!

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Any talk of optioning him to the minors?

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I have a feeling he's going to suffer and "injury" and be shut down for a while. Really tempted to just swap him for Hiura now and wait for the eventual callup,

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1 hour ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

I have a feeling he's going to suffer and "injury" and be shut down for a while. Really tempted to just swap him for Hiura now and wait for the eventual callup,

 

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gets cut outright.  He's basically become Chris Davis, except he's on a contending team and he doesn't have the huge contract.  It's not like Shaw is just getting unlucky either.  His batting average (which was poor to begin with) can be fully explained by his K rate going up 15% this year.  Not sure how long a contending team can afford to have a sub .200 hitter in their lineup and he's not under contract for next year, so the Brewers would not have to eat a ton of money.  At the very least, I expect Shaw to continue to lose playing time.

I didn't like Shaw at the beginning of the season (you could see the writing on the wall when Shaw had a historically bad spring training with 25 strikeouts and 0 walks), and now at this point I think Shaw is droppable even in NL-only leagues

Edited by FootballFan101

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5 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gets cut outright.  He's basically become Chris Davis, except he's on a contending team and he doesn't have the huge contract.  It's not like Shaw is just getting unlucky either.  His batting average (which was poor to begin with) can be fully explained by his K rate going up 15% this year.  Not sure how long a contending team can afford to have a sub .200 hitter in their lineup and he's not under contract for next year, so the Brewers would not have to eat a ton of money.  At the very least, I expect Shaw to continue to lose playing time.

I didn't like Shaw at the beginning of the season (you could see the writing on the wall when Shaw had a historically bad spring training with 25 strikeouts and 0 walks), and now at this point I think Shaw is droppable even in NL-only leagues

He has two minor league options remaining. There is zero chance they outright cut him after putting up ~ 7fWAR over the last two seasons. 

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7 minutes ago, meh2 said:

He has two minor league options remaining. There is zero chance they outright cut him after putting up ~ 7fWAR over the last two seasons. 

Agreed, real-life mlb teams are not as knee-jerk and reactionary as the fantasy posters on these boards.  If he continues to struggle though, sending him down might be a good call to allow him to clear his head.

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The reactions in here are mind blowing. Both from the mlb and fantasy perspective. Milwakee would never cut him.  The guys had back to back 30 homer seasons.  With respect to fantasy unless you're in the shallowest of leagues he should not be cut.  I only play in 12 teamers and he should absolutely not be cut in these. 

 

Paul Goldschmidt was hitting under .200 IIRC into May last year and finished with a .290 BA.  Now I know Shaw is clearly not Goldy, but I mention this to point out that players can get just as hot as they were cold, and end up with their usual numbers by seasons end.  The season is 6 months long.  If Shaw struggled like this in July people wouldn't cut him and I won't here.

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He needs to get it going soon or I’m out... unfortunately its not like there’s an abundance of other options at 2B.

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I just dropped Shaw and picked up Chavis. I know Chavis doesn’t have a proven track record either and he can’t sustain his current numbers, but he just seems like a better natural hitter that won’t kill my average. I was using Shaw as a bench utility guy and that’s what I plan to do with Chavis unless he keeps raking like this then I’ll plug him in. Hope this was a good move, I just didn’t see how Shaw was going to come close to last seasons numbers at this rate. Already through 100 AB, he looks awful. I’ve watched many of his AB and every time they are awful or he hits right into the shift. If you had him up with a runner on 3b and 2 outs and they played a shift and all he needed to do was hit one opposite field ball to win the World Series, I don’t think he would be physically capable of doing it. 

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gets cut outright.  He's basically become Chris Davis, except he's on a contending team and he doesn't have the huge contract.  It's not like Shaw is just getting unlucky either.  His batting average (which was poor to begin with) can be fully explained by his K rate going up 15% this year.  Not sure how long a contending team can afford to have a sub .200 hitter in their lineup and he's not under contract for next year, so the Brewers would not have to eat a ton of money.  At the very least, I expect Shaw to continue to lose playing time.

I didn't like Shaw at the beginning of the season (you could see the writing on the wall when Shaw had a historically bad spring training with 25 strikeouts and 0 walks), and now at this point I think Shaw is droppable even in NL-only leagues

 

He's not going to get cut, still has options left and MLB teams have more patience than reactionary fantasy baseball managers. I do think something's clearly not right with him and this could very well end up being a lost season. I agree he's worthless in fantasy this year. He has enough of a track record to maybe start performing at some point, sure, but by the time that comes many teams will have moved on. I for one am glad that I managed to include him as a throw in in a trade in the one league I did have him in (a deepish dynasty league where, even with his struggles, it would have been foolish to outright cut him).

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14 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

The reactions in here are mind blowing. Both from the mlb and fantasy perspective. Milwakee would never cut him.  The guys had back to back 30 homer seasons.  With respect to fantasy unless you're in the shallowest of leagues he should not be cut.  I only play in 12 teamers and he should absolutely not be cut in these. 

 

Paul Goldschmidt was hitting under .200 IIRC into May last year and finished with a .290 BA.  Now I know Shaw is clearly not Goldy, but I mention this to point out that players can get just as hot as they were cold, and end up with their usual numbers by seasons end.  The season is 6 months long.  If Shaw struggled like this in July people wouldn't cut him and I won't here.

 

It definitely comes down to how deep your league is, but if you're in a league with a shallow bench it might be time to cut bait. He just isn't right this year and while he was solid the past two seasons he doesn't really have the pedigree to warrant the same type of patience Goldy could be afforded last year or Ramirez can be afforded this year. I mean, I'm normally pretty patient but this guy just blows right now, I'm starting to think this is closer to Gomez circa 2015 rather than Goldy circa 2018.

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1 hour ago, dicka24 said:

The reactions in here are mind blowing. Both from the mlb and fantasy perspective. Milwakee would never cut him.  The guys had back to back 30 homer seasons.  With respect to fantasy unless you're in the shallowest of leagues he should not be cut.  I only play in 12 teamers and he should absolutely not be cut in these. 

You would honestly question somebody cutting Shaw for Chavis or K Marte? Sure, Shaw will evnetually come around to a degree, but I don't see any way he has a shot at being a top 10-12 2B. I struggled with the decicision, but cut him for Chavis in a 12-team with very small bench. If there's a stud in the making available, you can't wait & lose out on him by hanging on to a guy that's falling off a cliff.

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All slumps start from mechanical issues, and some eventually become mental. He's clearly in the mental stage. However, it takes very little to come out of it and I believe in Shaw. After all, he's been hitting against MLB-caliber pitching since middle school. He probably just needs to spend a couple of days in the cage swinging against his Dad until he gets back on track.

His teammate Ryan Braun raised his OPS by 160 points in the last three games. It happens.

According to the play-by-play, he hit a couple of line drives yesterday, so maybe he is getting close. According to Baseball Savant, his statcast numbers are similar to what they have been throughout his career.

I'm going to stick with him.

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2 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

It definitely comes down to how deep your league is, but if you're in a league with a shallow bench it might be time to cut bait. He just isn't right this year and while he was solid the past two seasons he doesn't really have the pedigree to warrant the same type of patience Goldy could be afforded last year or Ramirez can be afforded this year. I mean, I'm normally pretty patient but this guy just blows right now, I'm starting to think this is closer to Gomez circa 2015 rather than Goldy circa 2018.

 

In fairness, Gomez in 2015 was an early 2nd round / late 1st round pick (even though his career quickly went downhill).  Shaw was on average a 12th round pick this year.  There's a big difference in decision making what to do with a struggling 1st/2nd round pick vs a struggling 12th round pick.

I think the best comparison to Shaw is Chris Davis last year, given their ADPs, their K rates, and both only using 1/3 of the field and getting killed by shifts.  Will Shaw up being quite as bad as Davis was last year?  No, probably not because it's difficult for anyone to bat .168, but I'd say it's likely Shaw finishes with an average under .200 this year.

Edited by FootballFan101

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1 hour ago, Resident A-hole said:

 

You would honestly question somebody cutting Shaw for Chavis or K Marte? Sure, Shaw will evnetually come around to a degree, but I don't see any way he has a shot at being a top 10-12 2B. I struggled with the decicision, but cut him for Chavis in a 12-team with very small bench. If there's a stud in the making available, you can't wait & lose out on him by hanging on to a guy that's falling off a cliff.

 

If Chavis and Marte are on waivers in your league, then your league qualifies as being shallow.  In such a league sure.  Those guys aren't on waivers in any league I play in. 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

In fairness, Gomez in 2015 was an early 2nd round / late 1st round pick (even though his career quickly went downhill).  Shaw was on average a 12th round pick this year.  There's a big difference in decision making what to do with a struggling 1st/2nd round pick vs a struggling 12th round pick.

I think the best comparison to Shaw is Chris Davis last year, given their ADPs, their K rates, and both only using 1/3 of the field and getting killed by shifts.  Will Shaw up being quite as bad as Davis was last year?  No, probably not because it's difficult for anyone to bat .168, but I'd say it's likely Shaw finishes with an average under .200 this year.

 

I'm comparing him to Gomez just because I think, like Gomez, he's a guy that put up a couple of real good years and then completely fell off. Gomez was better when he was good, hence his first/second round status that year (seriously, the worst I've ever been burned playing this stupid game), I'm more talking about how they both had about two good years and nothing of much note before or after. In Shaw's case it's still speculative, we could both be wrong and he pulls a Goldy, but I don't see it. I don't think Davis is a great comparison just because he's a three true outcome guy, the bottom tends to fall out on those guys sooner rather than later, his fall was much more predictable than Shaw's or Gomez's. Still, I think Shaw is about as done as either of those two.

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All I want is for him to get a small hot streak so I can trade him and get him the f--- off of my team.

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4 hours ago, Raymanta said:

All slumps start from mechanical issues, and some eventually become mental. He's clearly in the mental stage. However, it takes very little to come out of it and I believe in Shaw. After all, he's been hitting against MLB-caliber pitching since middle school. He probably just needs to spend a couple of days in the cage swinging against his Dad until he gets back on track.

His teammate Ryan Braun raised his OPS by 160 points in the last three games. It happens.

According to the play-by-play, he hit a couple of line drives yesterday, so maybe he is getting close. According to Baseball Savant, his statcast numbers are similar to what they have been throughout his career.

I'm going to stick with him.

 

The Statcats numbers don't show how little contact he's making. 

Contact% is at 67,5%. That's 12,6% below his career average.

Z-Contact% is at 69,7%. That's 16,2% below his career average.

His SwStr% is at 14,5%. That's almost 5% above his career average.

You don't have to be a sabermetrics expert to understand that these are awful numbers. Maybe it's a mechanical issue but he was already struggling badly in spring training and it carried over. Maybe he's hiding an injury. 

The Brewers are in a tough division. They'll give him chances to snap out of it but I don't think they'll hesitate bringing up Hiura if this continues.

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Been a huge advocate of patience with him but it’s getting ugly.  Back to back at bats with bases loaded.  Unsuccessfully attempted a bunt on one.  Kd looking on piped meat.  Rolls over on next.  7 LOB.  He’s going to be shoved down lineup and platooned which makes the bounce back even harder.  I’m still holding for awhile longer, but certainly wouldn’t call someone stupid to cut bait.  

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