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Travis Shaw 2019 Outlook

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It's only Tuesday so a lot can change, but he has 7 games next week @ PHI & @ ATL, and 6 of the 7 starters scheduled are RHP.   It might be a week worth monitoring.

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1 hour ago, dicka24 said:

It's only Tuesday so a lot can change, but he has 7 games next week @ PHI & @ ATL, and 6 of the 7 starters scheduled are RHP.   It might be a week worth monitoring.

It's called proving ground. if he can't hit this week and produce I am moving on.

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does Shaw have options left to be sent to the minors to fix himself?

the Brewers could put Moustakas back at 3B and bring up Keston Hiura who is tearing up in AAA.

 

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35 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

does Shaw have options left to be sent to the minors to fix himself?

the Brewers could put Moustakas back at 3B and bring up Keston Hiura who is tearing up in AAA.

 

I think he has 2 minor league options left...

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I’ll say it again..... this reminds me of the Matt Carpenter thread of last season.  Not saying they are the same hitter, just preaching patience if you have room on your bench and can afford to wait.

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On 5/7/2019 at 4:17 PM, silverhammers said:

I’ll say it again..... this reminds me of the Matt Carpenter thread of last season.  Not saying they are the same hitter, just preaching patience if you have room on your bench and can afford to wait.

I'll say it again, Shaw reminds me of Chris Davis last year. 

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2 hours ago, dicka24 said:

He faces 6 RHPs next week.  Could be my Alamo for Travis Shaw.

Yep if he doesn’t heat up by the end of next week I’m dropping. 

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On 5/8/2019 at 10:43 PM, Trexpenniebaker said:

I just offered to trade him to everyone in my lg for a chewed up piece of bubble gum and I didn't get any takers.

Chewed bubble gum won't kill your batting average with zero counting stats

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Stick a fork in this clown.  I thought I was getting 25-30 homers at the 2B position, instead he’s given us the equivalent of a two inch spike in the eye.  Why can’t he work through this?  What a moron.  

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5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Mental. https://www.mlb.com/news/

Eh. Link didn’t work. But they have an article with quotes from Shaw. Also here:

 

You forgot to include the comment underneath:

 

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On 5/7/2019 at 4:17 PM, silverhammers said:

I’ll say it again..... this reminds me of the Matt Carpenter thread of last season.  Not saying they are the same hitter, just preaching patience if you have room on your bench and can afford to wait.

Was Carpenter having problems with contact / strikeouts last year?

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7 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

Was Carpenter having problems with contact / strikeouts last year?

No. The comparison isn't a good one. Carpenters underlying metrics still showed hope last season before he went on his tear. Shaw's are just horrific. 

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On 5/8/2019 at 3:17 AM, silverhammers said:

I’ll say it again..... this reminds me of the Matt Carpenter thread of last season.  Not saying they are the same hitter, just preaching patience if you have room on your bench and can afford to wait.

 

Very few hitters turn it around like Carpenter did last year. He went from waiver wire fodder to MVP (real and fantasy). I know you were just using him as an example to preach patience but that outcome will not happen here.

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Pretty clear these are mostly mental issues right now.  Often time sitting on bench for a few games to relax and watch can be the medicine guys need.  Seen this work plenty of times.  My patience will probably run until June here.  If he’s still under Mendoza around this time next month then I’ll probably look to make a move.  Until then, that’s what a bench is for.  

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16 minutes ago, Bit711 said:

No. The comparison isn't a good one. Carpenters underlying metrics still showed hope last season before he went on his tear. Shaw's are just horrific. 

Not true.  .228 BABIP, .283 career.  BB rate same, Line drive rate up, GB rate down, FB rate up, soft hit rates and hard hits virtually the same.  Nothing really alarming except for K rate.  Which coincides with not seeing ball and probably pressing.  With a 31.5 hr, 93 RBI average the last 2 years, hitting in a great lineup and park, I think there’s enough here to warrant patience in most leagues.

Edited by Cmilne23
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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Not true.  .228 BABIP, .283 career.  BB rate same, Line drive rate up, GB rate down, FB rate up, soft hit rates and hard hits virtually the same.  Nothing really alarming except for K rate.  Which coincides with not seeing ball and probably pressing.  With a 31.5 hr, 93 RBI average the last 2 years, hitting in a great lineup and park, I think there’s enough here to warrant patience in most leagues.

It's most definitely true. Doesn't matter what your batted ball profile is when you can't make contact. His Z-contact% is 67.7% right now compared to his career average of 85.3%. That is horrible. His K% is sitting at 31.3% compared to his career average of 22.7%. His IFFB% is at 13.2% compared to his career 9.6% mark (this partly explains his low babip, and unfortunately, doesnt mean luck has been driving it). So, it's not even a matter of him chasing the ball outside the zone. He just literally can't hit the ball. 

 

He's been horrible. Has the second worst rated WAR according to fangraphs compared to all hitters in the league this season. 

 

If you want to chalk it up to it being mental and him just being in a funk, then ok. But his numbers under the hood are extremely concerning and are much different compared to what Carpenters were last season. 

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10 hours ago, Bit711 said:

No. The comparison isn't a good one. Carpenters underlying metrics still showed hope last season before he went on his tear. Shaw's are just horrific. 

 

Totally agree.  Carpenter is a really bad and misleading comparison.  In my opinion, the best comparison to Shaw this year with his gigantic contact problems and extreme pull-happy tendencies is Crush (the only thing he crushes nowadays is your fantasy team's batting average) Davis from last year.  How did that work out with managers who were patient with Davis all year last year?

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I have a hard time buying the "he's simply not seeing the ball well right now" argument because this is something that started in spring training already. Something is clearly wrong with a hitter when all his contact% are far below career average and his K% is way up. And sure, most of his batted balls peripherals may be the same but his xBA is still only .196 so he's not even been very unlucky.

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46 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Totally agree.  Carpenter is a really bad and misleading comparison.  In my opinion, the best comparison to Shaw this year with his gigantic contact problems and extreme pull-happy tendencies is Crush (the only thing he crushes nowadays is your fantasy team's batting average) Davis from last year.  How did that work out with managers who were patient with Davis all year last year?

 

Honestly, I don't think either is a great comparison. There was noting coming into this season that suggested a fall off like this, Chris Davis always had peripherals that indicated that the bottom would fall out eventually, I avoided him even when he was putting up good numbers. I guess you can say he's become Davis-like with his contact numbers, and maybe that's all you mean, but Davis last season shouldn't have been surprising to anyone that was paying attention. Shaw has always had solid contact numbers, the debate coming into the season was if he would be as good this season, no one expected him to seriously collapse - which at this point I think it's safe to say he has. Maybe he'll turn it around mentally and have a good second half or something, but it won't be on any of my teams (managed to add him as a throw-in in a trade in the one league I had him in).

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The Brewers have 7 games this week.  Six of the seven are vs RHPs.  He just got the weekend off.  I'm running with him on a hunch, and on a bit of a numbers play on positive regression.  [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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