Carlos Correa

Matt Carpenter 2019 Outlook

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.257/.374/.523 slash line with 111 runs, 36 homers and 81 RBI in 2018. What do we think he has in him for 2019 at age 33?

 

In 2014-2017 he had 24 homers per season before breaking out last year into more of a masher. 

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3 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

.257/.374/.523 slash line with 111 runs, 36 homers and 81 RBI in 2018. What do we think he has in him for 2019 at age 33?

 

In 2014-2017 he had 24 homers per season before breaking out last year into more of a masher. 

The signs that he was 30 plus HR hitter were there for years. I’m a little concerned with his streakiness, but no reason he can’t come close to 30 again. Love him anywhere after pick 75.

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33 year old season.

 

He could fall off a cliff any year now.  I would rather jump off the wagon a year early than a year late.

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He had a tale of two seasons... early struggles And then made an adjustment and mashed.

 

I am buying the adjustments he has made and like him this year. And having goldschmidt in the line-up this year cant hurt

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He is very reasonably priced in the 12-team Y! mocks I've done for what he brings to the table. Maybe he does just collapse physically this year but I've seen no signs of that happening the last couple years. His abysmal early 2018 seemed to be a mental issue for who knows what reason. 

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Struggling to start this season, too...not as bad as last year, but still not good. He got rolling in May last year, so is this just an April thing for him? 

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6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Struggling to start this season, too...not as bad as last year, but still not good. He got rolling in May last year, so is this just an April thing for him? 

Kind of what I'm thinking. I dropped in a redraft league last year a little too early as it turned out. Then Carp was rolling. I think it would be wise to be (more) patient this time around.

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When does this guy start to do something?

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Just now, Deke said:

When does this guy start to do something?

 

I donno, but I watched 4 of his 5 PAS tonight and each time it looked like he was wondering if he remembered to lock his vehicle at the airport before getting on the Cardinals' jet, not focused on hitting. Lost at the plate is an understatement. 

 

Swinging at junk, staring at moneyballs. Looks like he's totally guessing up there. Unfortunately, I don't foresee another 15+ homer month to salvage this season. 

 

I get that it was one game, but I might try and sell him off while his name still carries weight because he looks atrocious. 

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Never pay for a career year... 

[Removed Cool Story]

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I’m holding until then end of May. If he hasn’t started hitting by then I’ll drop him. Last year he didn’t start hitting until the middle of May so we’re like 2/2.5 weeks away from that point. 

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Carp’s been a productive player year after year, and shown he can be very slow to get rolling early in he season. 

 If you paid attention last year you’d know he can go 0-100 with sustained production 6-7 weeks into the season.  I wouldn’t start start worrying, yet.

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He K'd 13x this past week, that's absurd. It seems his most common statline is 0-4 with a BB & 2 Ks. I'm holding & benching, don't want to miss out if he repeats last year. I dropped him about this time last year, and luckily was able to get him back a few weeks later.

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I made the mistake of dropping him last year right before he got hot.  He'll be in my lineup unless he a.) is injured or b.) the cardinals bench him.  He's the type of guy where the minute you bench him he'll hit 5 homers that week.  If ends up sucking all year I'll go down with the ship.

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I don't see any major changes in his approach (Nearly identical BB/K and strike zone discipline)

I think this is just a patented Carp Cold Streak 

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Five hits the last two days. Maybe he’s starting to warm up. Maybe it’s a blip. We’ll see soon enough. 

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Back to pretty meh lately. I know the turnaround he underwent last year, but are the underlying metrics pointing at another rebound moving forward?? I haven't looked in depth, but am considering buying on the cheap in a few spots.

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I’m buying cheap, getting him as a throw in on a deal, at that cost there is no downside...I’m gonna be throwing some lowball offers where I don’t have him as well, could be a huge upside guy for rest of season, if he gets hot he could win a few weeks when it counts and as a bench guy he offers multiple position flexibility too

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53 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Back to pretty meh lately. I know the turnaround he underwent last year, but are the underlying metrics pointing at another rebound moving forward?? I haven't looked in depth, but am considering buying on the cheap in a few spots.

 

He's so tough to analyze. His BB/K rate is almost the same as 2018, his BaBIP is low at .250 but he hasn't had a BaBIP above .300 since 2016 (.307), his LD rate is 25.5%, his soft contact is a miniscule 5.6%, and he's hitting the ball to all fields similarly to years past. 

 

I really don't know what to make of him. The games I've watched him the last couple weeks he doesn't look comfortable in the box. His fix may be as simple as just getting into a rhythm. 

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Man...to call Carpenter garbage would be an insult to trash.  He is totally lost at the plate right now.  He started terrible last year before going bonkers.  I'm going to hang onto him for now and hope to trade him if/when he gets hot. 

 

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On 5/12/2019 at 11:44 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Back to pretty meh lately. I know the turnaround he underwent last year, but are the underlying metrics pointing at another rebound moving forward?? I haven't looked in depth, but am considering buying on the cheap in a few spots.

 

I’m also a Carpenter owner and am losing patience in my shallow 10 team H2H league. My thing is we all know what he did last year but can you bank on the same turnaround for a player at the tender age of 33? It is possible we all paid for a career year of Carpenter at the draft table. I’m honestly considering moving on in the shallow league I’m in.

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On 5/16/2019 at 3:55 PM, quietj said:

 

I’m also a Carpenter owner and am losing patience in my shallow 10 team H2H league. My thing is we all know what he did last year but can you bank on the same turnaround for a player at the tender age of 33? It is possible we all paid for a career year of Carpenter at the draft table. I’m honestly considering moving on in the shallow league I’m in.

I lost patience and dropped him in my 10 team. There’s just too many other options worth taking fliers on. Rather have the shiny new prospect (hiura Riley etc) than this guy on my bench at this point 

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