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Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

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BB% up, K % down.  0% HR/FB and BABIP .186.  Hard hit % down a bit but everything else points to similar or even improved skills.  He may have been overrated, but he's underrated right now. Only risk is PT if Mil gets as impatient as fantasy owners.  

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1 minute ago, bluefrogguy said:

BB% up, K % down.  0% HR/FB and BABIP .186.  Hard hit % down a bit but everything else points to similar or even improved skills.  He may have been overrated, but he's underrated right now. Only risk is PT if Mil gets as impatient as fantasy owners.  

 

I agree strongly with the latter point, in the context that if he were on any number of teams, I would've ranked him higher than I did in the preseason. But if Arcia sticks at SS, Hiura will be up soon enough. In my opinion, Hiura is / will soon be the best hitter in the infield. That could potentially leave 1B and 3B to Shaw, Moustakas, Thames, and Aguilar. Three of those are lefties. 

 

One of my problems with Aguilar goes away significantly if he's traded to a different situation. But the road to a platoon is very clear unless he's significantly better than those names above. 

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Sigh.  What a stark contrast In starts 2 a season from last year. 

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15 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I agree strongly with the latter point, in the context that if he were on any number of teams, I would've ranked him higher than I did in the preseason. But if Arcia sticks at SS, Hiura will be up soon enough. In my opinion, Hiura is / will soon be the best hitter in the infield. That could potentially leave 1B and 3B to Shaw, Moustakas, Thames, and Aguilar. Three of those are lefties. 

 

One of my problems with Aguilar goes away significantly if he's traded to a different situation. But the road to a platoon is very clear unless he's significantly better than those names above. 

Hiura is batting over .300 at AAA, but he currently has a 41% strikeout rate.  Thats going to have to be fixed before he is called up.

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5 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

Hiura is batting over .300 at AAA, but he currently has a 41% strikeout rate.  Thats going to have to be fixed before he is called up.

 

50 PAs. He had an 18% rate in AA last year, tore the AFL up, and his power is WAYY up. I’d say he’s pressing because he wants to play meaningful baseball

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

50 PAs. He had an 18% rate in AA last year, tore the AFL up, and his power is WAYY up. I’d say he’s pressing because he wants to play meaningful baseball

Yeah people are acting as if 2 or so weeks will define Hiura moving forward. Will he K in the bigs? Probably plenty. Should we really care a ton? Ah no. His hit tool/power combo is awesome and there's some SB acumen in his profile too. There are paths to him getting full time MLB ab's soon and the easiest way might be Jesus getting moth-balled...even though Shaw also needs to start hitting soon...Sorry to derail a tad. I hope Jesus gets it together, but he looks lost right now.

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17 hours ago, taobball said:

Sure. But surface numbers are entirely past.

 

I'm sorry but "surface numbers" made me lol it is such a silly sounding term.  Surface numbers are the only reality.  Anything else is prophecy or day dreams or projections or magic 8 ball conclusions.

Right now Aguliar sucks in reality.  Last year he didn't except for July.  If he was good last year he can be good again.  It's only months between the two; not a decade of aging.  Once you do it then you can do it again barring injuries or Father Time.  You don't junk a car that is running rough.  You take the car to a garage and give it a tune up and it will run fine again.

Every year there are hitters that start out in deep, major slumps.  Like the poster above that mentioned Carpenter.  That's why I play in leagues where you can have a decent size bench.  You sit the struggling and play those that are performing well.

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18 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I'm sorry but "surface numbers" made me lol it is such a silly sounding term.  Surface numbers are the only reality.  Anything else is prophecy or day dreams or projections or magic 8 ball conclusions.

Right now Aguliar sucks in reality.  Last year he didn't except for July.  If he was good last year he can be good again.  It's only months between the two; not a decade of aging.  Once you do it then you can do it again barring injuries or Father Time.  You don't junk a car that is running rough.  You take the car to a garage and give it a tune up and it will run fine again.

Every year there are hitters that start out in deep, major slumps.  Like the poster above that mentioned Carpenter.  That's why I play in leagues where you can have a decent size bench.  You sit the struggling and play those that are performing well.

 

I mean you don't ahve to apologize. But I fundamentally disagree with how to perceive baseball I guess. I'd rather bet on a guy with things under the hood I love and hasn't done it yet than someone who did it but I didn't believe a the time that it was sustainable b/c of what was under the hood. 

 

If people disagree, so be it. I'm not concerned with what Aguilar did. You don't get points in 2019 for what he did in 2018. The most inaccurate part of your statement is that "Anything ELSE is prophecy or day dreams." There's nothing less prophetic in those taking Aguilar in the top 80 for one reason than those not taking him there for another. You formulate your prophecy the way you want, I formulate prophecy the way that I want. I do it the way I feel is best for making an accurate projection. And frankly I've never been too effected by people disliking my methodology. If you disagree, that's fine. I disagree with everyone on something. I just think to pretend one is prophetic and one is... a linear graph? is just short-sighted and inaccurate. 

 

"Once you do it then you can do it again" is also just a bad argument to hang your hat on. Bryan LaHair says hi, as does the litany of players who have played over their skull for half a season. Even a full season. And I'm tired of the July argument. A .770 OPS in September won't cut it as a starting 1B on this roster, and he's not going to jump back to the top of the line-up with a .770 OPS either. It's coming purely from people who want to nitpick and then claim the other side isn't nitpicking. If he has the same season and just bats 7th, he'd have considerably less value. 

 

Matt Carpenter isn't Jesus Aguilar. Matt Carpetner has been a consummate professional with a proven track record for a number of years. Aguilar has been a bench bat that got his, to steal an old Tristan Cockcroft phrase, got his orange juiced by the Milwaukee Brewers, just like Thames. I'm not saying he doesn't have much to offer. I just don't believe he's a signifiacntly better option v. RHP than Thames, Shaw, or Moostakas, and runs a significant risk of being the WORST of the 4 v. RHP. Which could lead to a small-side platoon and a role as a priority Pinch HItter. Not interesting in mixed if that happens. 

 

Pitcher's adjust. I'm still skeptical that Aguilar can adjust back well enough to have consistent PT on this team once we get deep into the season. 

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Yes, his OPS is Sept was .770, and that is in part because of his drop in his walk rate. If he had kept the same walk rate he had in July and August (some are conveniently ignoring his Aug OPS), his OPS would have been in the .825-.830 range (guesstimating). Not elite, but better.

Again, the anti-Aguilar guys keep pointing to the second half as evidence that this should have been expected. However, unless his hard hit was down and his soft hit up as drastically as it is now, then the second half didn’t point to the start he’s had. The one thing it could have told us is that pitchers are starting to adjust. Now with a full offseason and a full 2018 of data, that adjustment has taken place. Can Jesus adjust back? That remains to be seen. One reason I don’t look at 2018’s second half as a preview to 2019 is because even as pitchers adjust, I have to assume a hitter and his hitting coach are adjusting to the adjustments  

I am in agreement that there are things to worry about with Aguilar. His low BABIP is immaterial if he’s making so much soft contact. Until he starts barreling up balls again, this start is not a fluke. I’m concerned it may be a portend of things to come...but it has very little to do with July and September pointing to this. 

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23 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

However, unless his hard hit was down and his soft hit up as drastically as it is now, then the second half didn’t point to the start he’s had.

 

Again this is just a highly inaccurate statement. You're saying no one could've predicted this because ONE METRIC supported him. You can disagree with how we reach conclusions, but don't short change my argument because it doesn't fit your methodology of player evaluation. 

 

25 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I have to assume a hitter and his hitting coach are adjusting to the adjustments  

 

I think that how well a hitter can adjust is something we can predict within a margin of error. I'm worried about Aguilar in this regard. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Again this is just a highly inaccurate statement. You're saying no one could've predicted this because ONE METRIC supported him. You can disagree with how we reach conclusions, but don't short change my argument because it doesn't fit your methodology of player evaluation. 

 

 

I think that how well a hitter can adjust is something we can predict within a margin of error. I'm worried about Aguilar in this regard. 

 

Highly inaccurate? Lol. Was his hard hit way down and soft hit way up in July and Sept, to the levels they’re at now? If not, then it’s not inaccurate. And don’t put words in my mouth. I’m not saying anything about one metric. I’m saying July and August didn’t point to this start unless we saw his hit percentages diverge like they have.

What is killing him right now is pitchers have adjusted and are inducing weak contact. He has yet to adjust. 

I realize that you never lose a disagreement, but you’re telling me not to shortchange an argument because I don’t like the methodology...and yet YOU do the exact same thing. Repeatedly. If you disagree with someone’s methodology, you dismiss it and “shortchange” it. So don’t demand that I refrain from doing something that you do often. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

I mean you don't ahve to apologize. But I fundamentally disagree with how to perceive baseball I guess. I'd rather bet on a guy with things under the hood I love and hasn't done it yet than someone who did it but I didn't believe a the time that it was sustainable b/c of what was under the hood.

this is how a lot of people get their predictions dead wrong, they fall in love with advanced stats because they think they have some unforeseen edge (that everyone else has access to lol) and can't see the forest for the trees

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Highly inaccurate? Lol. Was his hard hit way down and soft hit way up in July and Sept, to the levels they’re at now? If not, then it’s not inaccurate. And don’t put words in my mouth. I’m not saying anything about one metric. I’m saying July and August didn’t point to this start unless we saw his hit percentages diverge like they have.

What is killing him right now is pitchers have adjusted and are inducing weak contact. He has yet to adjust. 

I realize that you never lose a disagreement, but you’re telling me not to shortchange an argument because I don’t like the methodology...and yet YOU do the exact same thing. Repeatedly. If you disagree with someone’s methodology, you dismiss it and “shortchange” it. So don’t demand that I refrain from doing something that you do often. 

 

I don't care if we disagree about Aguilar. I care how you represent my argument.


If you want to say "I believe that b/c of Hard/Soft%'s Aguilar wasn't predictable," that's one thing. Just don't point to MY argument and say I could not have made the conclusion I did make. That's all. Saying I/we are WRONG because we don't support this line of thinking is what I find in error. I have no problem with different methodologies, I just disagree with them strongly. If you believe Hard/Soft is the best way to evaluate a hitter, more power to you. Just don't tell me what I can and cannot believe because of it. That's all. 

 

Quote

Again, the anti-Aguilar guys keep pointing to the second half as evidence that this should have been expected. However, unless his hard hit was down and his soft hit up as drastically as it is now, then the second half didn’t point to the start he’s had. 

 

You're directly saying here that I'm in error suggesting there was evidence. I believe there was evidence. It's just not your evidence. I don't take any issue with you having a different methodology or believing mine is wrong. I have an issue with you saying that my retrospective is inaccurate. It isn't. In June 2018 I wrote an article that said I was concerned about some trends in Aguilar and that I felt that he would have a worse second half and potentially be displaced. I've believed that for a long time now and he still hasn't done anyting to change my opinion. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't care if we disagree about Aguilar. I care how you represent my argument.


If you want to say "I believe that b/c of Hard/Soft%'s Aguilar wasn't predictable," that's one thing. Just don't point to MY argument and say I could not have made the conclusion I did make. That's all. Saying I/we are WRONG because we don't support this line of thinking is what I find in error. I have no problem with different methodologies, I just disagree with them strongly. If you believe Hard/Soft is the best way to evaluate a hitter, more power to you. Just don't tell me what I can and cannot believe because of it. That's all. 

 

 

You're directly saying here that I'm in error suggesting there was evidence. I believe there was evidence. It's just not your evidence. I don't take any issue with you having a different methodology or believing mine is wrong. I have an issue with you saying that my retrospective is inaccurate. It isn't. In June 2018 I wrote an article that said I was concerned about some trends in Aguilar and that I felt that he would have a worse second half and potentially be displaced. I've believed that for a long time now and he still hasn't done anyting to change my opinion. 

 

 

 

We’re just going in circles here. I’ll say this one thing and then will be done woth this particular disagreement. I never once said your evidence wasn’t sound evidence. If you’ll go back and read WHAT I wrote and not read into what I wrote...my basic statement was that I disagree with guys who simply point to a second half swoon and say that means he’ll struggle this year. There are guys who see a great second half and assume it means a great next year...and vice versa. If you have metrics from June onward that predicted this struggle, then fine. My comment was to those who look at .245-11-38 and say, “Well, that means he’ll suck he next season.” If you took it differently, I apologize for not communicating more clearly. 

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Stat him all you want. Every time I watch him he’s swinging right through fastballs. Something is off here 

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I might regret it but I dropped him for a red hot christian walker. Aguilar might be twice the talent but right now he’s killing me, I always preach patience but the brewers are obviously getting fed up, hard for me to stand behind him. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

I might regret it but I dropped him for a red hot christian walker. Aguilar might be twice the talent but right now he’s killing me, I always preach patience but the brewers are obviously getting fed up, hard for me to stand behind him. 

Brother, I feel your pain and don't blame you one bit for dropping, I am in the same boat and cringe every day watching the Brew Crew roll and having their 2 worst players on my team (Aguilar/Shaw). As Grey from Razzball calls it -- the ticker-tease: I'll see the Brewers win 8-2, go check my lineup to see those two bozos 1/9 and goose eggs, this is the painful/mental part of fantasy baseball, I look at the calendar and see that it's only April 19th, may the good Lord bless us all for our excruciating patience. The low K's and contact give me tenuous hope.

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If there's one positive notion--Thames is not much better and hasn't been much better. Just to remember.

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Yeah, it's almost as likely Thames goes into a deep slump while Aguilar comes out of his ... 

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Well, Thames 2/4 with a HR tonight. Color me even more concerned.

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7 hours ago, FoulPole said:

On the trade block in my league. Tempted to buy low but man he's been atrocious since July...

 

Don't bother trading for him, he will be dropped soon enough. This guy is swinging his way out of an everyday position. Season long platoon coming. 

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1 hour ago, Jrick45 said:

 

Don't bother trading for him, he will be dropped soon enough. This guy is swinging his way out of an everyday position. Season long platoon coming. 

True story. Felt good to liberate myself from this 1-year wonder and move on waste of a draft pick:/

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