Flyman75

2019 Fantasy Strategy Thread

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, crafty said:

From my experience (12 team mostly) there’s always one guy who goes really speed heavy and winds up winning the category with like 170-180 SBs. Don’t be that guy, and don’t try to chase him. You don’t need to be first in steals to win the league. 

 

That said, typically I’ve found the sweet spot is to shoot for about 140. This will almost always be enough to get you into the top 4/5 within the category, while still allowing you the ability to put together a team that won’t drain you in other areas.

I should add: I mostly play in leagues that use MI, CI, and 5 OF. If your league(s) don’t include these positions you probably won’t need to aim quite so high. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/14/2019 at 1:31 AM, B&F said:

Auction draft question:

 

If the league settings have 60% of the players in the starting lineup as hitters (14 out of 23) should I allocate 60% of my budget to hitters?

 

 

 

70% for hitters is a good rule...

But I'd say 75% to hitting in H2H..pitching is generally more important in roto.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I way off in saying that over the past 2 years we're starting to see a bit more of teams ignoring or circumventing prospect service time clocks? Soto got the call very quickly last year, Tatis is breaking camp on SD's opening roster, Kingery signing an extension, Jimenez signing an extension. 

I'm wondering if we're seeing the start of a new trend and if so should it impact how we look at prospects (at least the bats) in redrafts in the future.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably too late now, but SP is getting bumped up in several auctions I've seen.  I think 70/30 hitting/pitching is an arbitrary number someone made up and the masses adopted it.  It should be more like 55/45 or 60/40.  ...but I guess that's a topic for next years thread.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my leagues the split is moving towards more pitching as well.

I think the interesting question is whether that makes sense, or is just people being sheep...the reduction of high-innings aces and the continued risk of performance of starters may well suggest the LIMA plan or some other spread-the-risk approach actually makes a lot more sense.  Another way to think about it is this: there is good reason to suggest legit aces (Scherzer, etc.) are in fact more valuable now than they were a few years ago.  But I am not sure there's any reason to think starters below the top or perhaps second tier are actually more valuable---they just are more expensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Probably too late now, but SP is getting bumped up in several auctions I've seen.  I think 70/30 hitting/pitching is an arbitrary number someone made up and the masses adopted it.  It should be more like 55/45 or 60/40.  ...but I guess that's a topic for next years thread.  

60/40 is where I was at this year and last 2 years. Won league last 2 years by landslide. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Baur10 said:

Am I way off in saying that over the past 2 years we're starting to see a bit more of teams ignoring or circumventing prospect service time clocks? Soto got the call very quickly last year, Tatis is breaking camp on SD's opening roster, Kingery signing an extension, Jimenez signing an extension. 

I'm wondering if we're seeing the start of a new trend and if so should it impact how we look at prospects (at least the bats) in redrafts in the future.

 

And Alonso now.  I'm not saying they're all going to "hit" but if this is the start of a trend in the MLB these types should be creeping up in drafts in the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO a good strategy to employ right now is to set yourself up for the rest of the season. Pickup all guys you have ranked in your top 200 that are struggling and were dropped prematurely. Don't worry about winning the first week and instead acquire pieces that will help you in the summer. Pickup Rich Hill and Senzel if they were drooped, send a low offer for Vlad Guerrero, etc...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do not, do not, DO NOT overreact to the first few games of the season. Especially pitchers. The weather is cold, several teams that went late into the past season have mentioned having a shortened spring training for their pitchers, and sometimes bad games just happen. 

Doesn't mean you shouldn't grab someone who shows you something surprising (eg Pineda, Boyd) or someone who cements themself into the lineup (eg McMahon).  And it doesn't mean you shouldn't monitor worrisome tends in your players.  But outside of something catastrophic you really shouldn't be changing your opinion on a player you drafted from such a small sample size. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some (WAY too early) unexpected offensive trends so far to keep in mind when streaming pitchers or players:

- SEA and ARI batters are currently #3/4 in runs/game right now

- CIN/HOU/CLE batters are in the bottom 6 in runs/game

- COL is in the bottom 7 BUT hasn't started in Coors

- CHC/ARI/BOS/WSH/SEA pitchers are the league leaders in runs allowed per game, however while CHC/ARI/BOS are dead last in FIP WSH is leads the league with 2.41

- Up with the expected leaders (HOU, CLE, NYM etc), DET/TB/TOR and to a lesser extent PIT  pitching are near the bottom of the list runs allowed/game and FIP.

 

What does this mean so early in the season?

ShallowIncredibleHerring-size_restricted

Happy streaming

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FAAB strategy in AL or NL only leagues.

 

Spend early or wait until trades start and hope elite talent finds its way into the league?

 

The prices have been high in my leagues the first two weeks. I could use some help with a few guys hitting the DL.  But the prices so far, don't seem worth it for marginal talent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

First year playing rotisserie baseball.  Been playing fantasy for a few years.

In a competitive 15 team money league.  I find myself in first place mostly due to overwhelming pitching that should maintain the current level if not become even better.

Is it possible to win a league by ignoring stolen bases?  

I will try to keep this as simple as possible.  Let's ignore players.

My team is up about 9 points in the standings. We are holding slim advantages at the current point level of BA, HRs, Runs, and RBIs with little possibility to increase the point total in those categories.  My team is In 12th place in SBs.

In a nutshell if I punt SBs and use players that will help me in the other four categories I estimate (but am not certain) I will lose about ten points (my hitters are currently playing over their head).  If I chase steals I will be sacrificing in the other four categories and estimate I will lose about twelve points.  Regardless of the difference in point loss I believe the loss will be greater if I chase steals.

What is the best strategy?

 

 

 

Edited by B&F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Punting steals is a viable strategy, but the specifics of how viable it is depend a lot on context.  If the 3 teams behind you in SB pass you, not only are you losing those points, but those other teams are gaining them.  Are those teams that are a threat to you winning?  And if you're in first with so few SB points, it's likely that you'll hit diminishing returns in other categories -- you're probably top 3 in several, maybe first in a few.  Meanwhile, if you're in 12th but there are 4 or 5 teams bunched together that you could potentially pass, that could be worth the cost of a roster spot to cycle through SB guys.  You don't necessarily have to start them while you're trying to find one.  And maybe a couple teams even higher in the SB column have their primary speed guys get hurt -- you punt and you sacrifice the possibility of passing them.

Still a lot of season left -- to me, punting is something you want to do at the draft table or as a last resort.  If you were in 15th and hopeless, then yeah, punt.  The way things sound to me, I'd at least dabble in a couple of pop-up speed plays.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, B&F said:

 

First year playing rotisserie baseball.  Been playing fantasy for a few years.

In a competitive 15 team money league.  I find myself in first place mostly due to overwhelming pitching that should maintain the current level if not become even better.

Is it possible to win a league by ignoring stolen bases?  

I will try to keep this as simple as possible.  Let's ignore players.

My team is up about 9 points in the standings. We are holding slim advantages at the current point level of BA, HRs, Runs, and RBIs with little possibility to increase the point total in those categories.  My team is In 12th place in SBs.

In a nutshell if I punt SBs and use players that will help me in the other four categories I estimate (but am not certain) I will lose about ten points (my hitters are currently playing over their head).  If I chase steals I will be sacrificing in the other four categories and estimate I will lose about twelve points.  Regardless of the difference in point loss I believe the loss will be greater if I chase steals.

What is the best strategy?

 

 

 

I think you should trade some of your pitching for a guy that can get a lot of steals without hurting you in other categories.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With more than a third of the season gone, I'm running into a bit of a dilemma with streaming pitching in roto, which I never really bothered doing because of GS limits.

If you play h2h, you may or may not know that most roto leagues have limits to games started (usually 200 GS). However, the advent of "openers" has created a bit of a loophole around this limitation, especially if you're in a league that limits GS but not innings, which is the case for many if not most roto leagues.

I'm realizing now that I hadn't fully considered the ramifications of all of this when I drafted my roto team, mostly because I figured the opener fad would fade away rather than catch on with more teams.

I was wondering if any other roto leagues/managers are having to deal with this and what their approach is. I always felt that GS limits were enough. But I guess innings limits are becoming even more necessary now with openers.

Have you been streaming these guys in roto all season? Are you waiting to see how your numbers turn out before taking a chance on them? Personally, I haven't streamed any "primary" pitchers who follow the openers. But I think that's mostly because I always draft a lot of pitching in roto and don't want to risk my first/second place ratios.

But if the opener thing becomes even bigger, I guess I may need to consider changing my draft strategy, since the wins category will become more streamable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Kaii23 In the interest of following up from the Riley thread, I'd be curious to see you start predicting when to play and start certain supposed hot guys and when to bench them. I'm interested in seeing if it works out in your favor or if it's selective memory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looks like bat heavy was easier to predict/safer/greater odds of landing than sp (with 45% season complete)

 

6 out of top 8 sp were drafted outside top 100 (maybe not Castillo going off preaseason rank)

14 out of top 25 sp were drafted outside top 100 (15 if you include Kershaw pretty sure his adp with inj was outside top 100)

 

bats we got

1 out top 8 (bell) bats were drafted outside top 100

8 out of top 25 bats were drafted outside top 100 (probably not moose with 2b eligibility)

and no real surprises outside pence, marte, Edwardo (he has been a good hitter for a couple years going back to min.)

bell, kepler, and alonso on a lot of sleeper/break out lists 

 

but 1st rd hit/miss between sp and bats favors the top tier sp so far. max, sale, deGrom, all hit (more so than the bats like trea, altuve, joram, harper, judge, Stanton, goldy)

that was predicable as the top tier sp have the highest floor outside the top couple bats. only thing with the top tier sp is health.

 

see how it goes ROS

(been doing well with taking buehler as my highest SP in any of my 10 redrafts)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hopefully this isn't a BC question.  I think it's more of a game theory and will have a wide range of answers.  Makes you get your thinking cap on.  I've asked this question before in some parts...
 
You're in the finals of a head to head league.   You can drop/add in this league up until the game begins.  Going into the final late game, you are tied in some way whether it be with points or in categories.  You are going to lose the head to head tiebreaker.   You have Player X yet to play and your opponent has nobody left to play.  Unfortunately you discover your player ate some bad oysters the night before, has an upset stomach, and is not in the lineup for tonight.  If he doesn't play, you are going to lose.  
 
You can drop him, however, and add some waiver fodder replacement player who gives you a chance to win.
 
How good of a player does Player X have to be for you to consider holding onto him?    
 
Do the categories you're tied in matter?  Average, runs, and rbi may be a little different than HR and SB.  
 
In this scenario, lets say you are tied in runs and home runs.  Just getting 1 wins you the title.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's the trade value in some of these closers in waiting?  Just looking for general strategy.  Do you cash in on someone like Sam Dyson  Reyes Moronta now? Or wait until Will Smith gets dealt.  Obviously if someone else is named closer they have no value.  Would you rather just hold them or try to cash in on something now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

What's the trade value in some of these closers in waiting?  Just looking for general strategy.  Do you cash in on someone like Sam Dyson  Reyes Moronta now? Or wait until Will Smith gets dealt.  Obviously if someone else is named closer they have no value.  Would you rather just hold them or try to cash in on something now?

 

I've never had good luck selling mid-range closers or next-in-line guys at the deadline for anything meaningful.  In standard leagues, teams who can make up ground in the SV column know there will be closers available for free on the wire -- maybe not the upper tier of "next in line" guys, but someone who will get saves and have some job security.  Maybe if you put out feelers now you can get someone who wants to get a month of saves from a guy who might lose his job, but you're probably looking at "throw in" value at this point, not someone you could move for something significant.  And if they're just next-in-line guys who aren't getting saves, well, why would someone pay up when there will be many more job changes at the deadline?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I've never had good luck selling mid-range closers or next-in-line guys at the deadline for anything meaningful.  In standard leagues, teams who can make up ground in the SV column know there will be closers available for free on the wire -- maybe not the upper tier of "next in line" guys, but someone who will get saves and have some job security.  Maybe if you put out feelers now you can get someone who wants to get a month of saves from a guy who might lose his job, but you're probably looking at "throw in" value at this point, not someone you could move for something significant.  And if they're just next-in-line guys who aren't getting saves, well, why would someone pay up when there will be many more job changes at the deadline?

Guess I should have specified in AL/NL only leagues.  So almost every possible closer is owned by someone.  Moronta, Watson, Melancon, Dyson all owned right now.  So once Smith is likely traded, the next guy is 95% owned already.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In that case, your "just looking for general strategy" question is looking more Bench Coach-y...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/19/2019 at 10:00 AM, colepenhagen said:

looks like bat heavy was easier to predict/safer/greater odds of landing than sp (with 45% season complete)

 

6 out of top 8 sp were drafted outside top 100 (maybe not Castillo going off preaseason rank)

14 out of top 25 sp were drafted outside top 100 (15 if you include Kershaw pretty sure his adp with inj was outside top 100)

 

bats we got

1 out top 8 (bell) bats were drafted outside top 100

8 out of top 25 bats were drafted outside top 100 (probably not moose with 2b eligibility)

and no real surprises outside pence, marte, Edwardo (he has been a good hitter for a couple years going back to min.)

bell, kepler, and alonso on a lot of sleeper/break out lists 

 

but 1st rd hit/miss between sp and bats favors the top tier sp so far. max, sale, deGrom, all hit (more so than the bats like trea, altuve, joram, harper, judge, Stanton, goldy)

that was predicable as the top tier sp have the highest floor outside the top couple bats. only thing with the top tier sp is health.

 

see how it goes ROS

(been doing well with taking buehler as my highest SP in any of my 10 redrafts)

 

Good post. My only real disagreement is calling Sale a first rd hit. He currently has 3 wins and a 4.04 ERA. Right now, he’s very much a first rd bust, even with the Ks and WHIP. You draft a SP in the first round expecting a dominant four cats from him. 

But good post. Thank you for taking the time to put it together. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My strategy (roto), seemingly forever, has been loading up on bats and piecing together a solid staff of SP2/3s/4s and rotating guys in and out based on matchup. The past two years this seems to not be working. Would love to know if it’s just me and targeting the wrong guys (very possible) or if it’s something others have noticed. 

I kinda feel as if there’s a greater gap between the haves/have nots in starting pitching, making those elite guys more valuable. And it seems like now picking up quality production from hitters is now much easier to do. One thing I’ve noticed is that even worse hitters “add” to the categories, because they’re simply counting stats (HR, SB, RBI, etc.). They only hurt you in batting average. And since the whole league batting average is down, hitters don’t really hurt you. They just produce slightly less. On the other hand, pitchers have more categories that aren’t simply counting stats. ERA, WHIP, K/BB are categories where a guy can blow up and destroy you. Negative pitchers hurt a lot more than hitters. 

I’ve moved from keeping 0 or 1 SP most seasons (out of 8 ) to looking at keeping 2, and possibly 3, next season. Seems more important than ever to have aces. And even though pitchers bust rate is higher than hitters, that includes the late round pitchers I’ve always liked to target (like Wheeler, Matz, Strahm, etc. I targeted this season). I think aces are going to continue to be in higher demand for the foreseeable future, as offense continues to flourish in baseball.

Are others seeing the same things in their leagues? Thoughts about strategy moving forward?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...