Joshmcd94

Courtland Sutton 2019 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

So you're choosing all these guys over him:

 

95.  DJax

96.  Eman Sanders

97.  Christian Kirk

98.  C Sutton

112.  Tyrell Williams

113.  Michael Gallup

114.  DaeSean Hamilton

 

Receivers gotta be drafted this late in the draft too.  So we gotta find the ones that work for us in later rounds.

 

"vastly" outperformed is a real stretch too.  You can argue they were all comparable down the stretch, but no one "vastly" outperformed the others.  

 

Hamilton and Patrick were on 100 and 76 catch paces once they actually saw the field. Sutton averaged 3/30 during that time while supposedly being the go-to guy.

Sutton projects as a #1, but isn’t good enough to be one. I don’t see how he fits in outside of that either because tertiary targets tend to specialize, and he has no standout attributes.

Of those players, I’d rank Sutton #2 behind Kirk just because if the unknown factor, but I certainly wouldn’t expect much at all.

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59 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Meh.  Kirk for sure.

 

I'm also seeing Metcalf, Marvin Jones, Fitz, Allison, Harry, and Hardman there.  Probably take them all over Sutton.

 

Kirk is worthless while Fitz still there since Fitz plays Kirk's role IMO, but to each their own.

 

I got Marvin 25 spots higher, Fitz 13, Allison 12, Harry 11 slots ahead.

 

Hardman and Metcalf behind.

 

We all got different lists I guess.

 

Bottom line, I don't like any of the rookies this year.  I like Hardman's upside, but think he's got about 50 more picks to climb before September and then his upside starts becoming expectation and I'm not sure I can expect it to happen.  

 

Most these guys this far back aren't sexy and no one wants to talk about em most of the time, but it's exhausting for me to sift through 30 pages of Julio Jones or other top flight receivers that don't matter cause they are what they are when these are the guys late in the draft that are gonna swing your season the most IMO.

 

With a guy like Julio you either take him or Michael Thomas at the position, whoever you like most, or maybe you take a RB like Melvin Gordon. It ends there though.  With these guys though you evaluate if you're gonna draft them or not and it helps dramatically IMO.  Most rookies don't pan out so I rarely mess with rookie WRs.  I like Sutton in a breakout year this year though, nothing crazy, but I think 850 + / 7 + is reasonable and that is money at that draft cost IMO.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Hamilton and Patrick were on 100 and 76 catch paces once they actually saw the field. Sutton averaged 3/30 during that time while supposedly being the go-to guy.

Sutton projects as a #1, but isn’t good enough to be one. I don’t see how he fits in outside of that either because tertiary targets tend to specialize, and he has no standout attributes.

Of those players, I’d rank Sutton #2 behind Kirk just because if the unknown factor, but I certainly wouldn’t expect much at all.

 

I just Looked at the game logs.  They didn't vastly outperform him.  Sutton was a rookie last year on a team that didn't care about winning.  Give him 2 more years of a team trying to win football games before you write him off.  People often takeaway a lot from weeks 15-17 in completely lost seasons, but sometimes there just isn't that much to read into.

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3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Kirk is worthless while Fitz still there since Fitz plays Kirk's role IMO, but to each their own.

He's the best WR on the team right now, he's got talent.

 

Kirk will get slot reps, not worried about that.

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I just Looked at the game logs.  They didn't vastly outperform him.  Sutton was a rookie last year on a team that didn't care about winning.  Give him 2 more years of a team trying to win football games before you write him off.  People often takeaway a lot from weeks 15-17 in completely lost seasons, but sometimes there just isn't that much to read into.

I'm not sure what people are complaining about. He had 700 yards off 42 receptions; that's pretty darn nice for a rookie WR. You can see improvement between first and second half of the year too:
image.png.fa84c93939c927371ff50070a76fe148.png

The bars are targets/receptions, the lines are yards. It looks good to me, except for 2 things:
- his catch% is terrible. First half of the season was 46%, that went slightly up to 53% second half of the year, but clearly that needs to improve. It should be noted his yd/catch is pretty good.

- Flacco. Nuff said.
On the plus side, this is not your average big bodied receiver who muscles himself into catches, the guy can actually run a route. He needs to improve a bit, but I see good and varied routes here (good hands too):

 

He was the #3 rookie last season, and the #32 over the past 10 years, so this is a serious WR for the future. Also remember that WRs in their second year for the majority improve, so it's not unreasonable to expect an increase. Well, he will have Flacco and a rookie QB throwing it to him, but still.

Given that 1000 yd would make him around WR20, and his ADP is now WR35-40, I'm in. Gimme.

Edited by Boudewijn
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On 5/26/2019 at 10:39 PM, MJJ28 said:

 

Hamilton and Patrick were on 100 and 76 catch paces once they actually saw the field. Sutton averaged 3/30 during that time while supposedly being the go-to guy.

Sutton projects as a #1, but isn’t good enough to be one. I don’t see how he fits in outside of that either because tertiary targets tend to specialize, and he has no standout attributes.

Of those players, I’d rank Sutton #2 behind Kirk just because if the unknown factor, but I certainly wouldn’t expect much at all.

 

People assumed when DT was traded, and Manny went down with an Achilles-  that Sutton would ascend to the thrown of wr1 immediately.    Not reasonable or normal for a rookie.  Going from 2nd and 3rd cbs to bracket coverage by cb1s is a HUGE leap.   

 

No special attributes?   Other than being big, fast, smart,  great range, developing route tree, and fantastic high pointing ability.   He can be a real weapon down the field for a qb known for long ball accumen.  A lot to like here- and a steal where he’s going now @Dreams And Dwightmares

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.milehighreport.com/platform/amp/2019/5/24/18637988/courtland-sutton-breakout-season-2019

 

 

 

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Any Bronc fans out there who saw a fair bit of him? Was this largely a problem with a lousy QB and offense or was he bad or what? 

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He's settling in at a decent low risk ADP- he was a bit too high a couple months back.   I'd still rather have Hamilton for slightly less, but Sutton's going for dirt cheap, i rarely argue against guys like that.     

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Is Sutton a good "buy-low" candidate? With Flacco and a new OC most likely capping his ceiling, Sutton has the skillset to be the 2018 Michael Crabtree.
But if/when Drew Lock takes over and gets more reps, Sutton's value is going to trend up. I'm thinking this could be a lot like Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall in 2006/2007. Cutler replaced Jake Plummer late in '06 and looked pretty average in 5 games --- but in 2007 Marshall blew up, and Cutler locked on him for the next 2 yrs. 

There are a lot of similarities between these 4 players. 

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On 7/3/2019 at 8:15 AM, AirForceOne said:

Is Sutton a good "buy-low" candidate? With Flacco and a new OC most likely capping his ceiling, Sutton has the skillset to be the 2018 Michael Crabtree.
But if/when Drew Lock takes over and gets more reps, Sutton's value is going to trend up. I'm thinking this could be a lot like Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall in 2006/2007. Cutler replaced Jake Plummer late in '06 and looked pretty average in 5 games --- but in 2007 Marshall blew up, and Cutler locked on him for the next 2 yrs. 

There are a lot of similarities between these 4 players. 

 

Read above thread 

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On 6/19/2019 at 8:44 PM, bomont said:

Any Bronc fans out there who saw a fair bit of him? Was this largely a problem with a lousy QB and offense or was he bad or what? 

 

Sutton needs a QB who is willing to trust him and throw contestable balls.  He wins with his size, strength, athleticism, and body position - and he’s very good at it.  He’s a completely different animal than Hamilton or Patrick.  He is reliant on a QB willing to take a few chances, and from what I saw last year, that was not Keenum.  

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Keenum played like a whelp last season. Going on what @Boudewijn touched on with his catch rate, I remember seeing a fair few downright horrible throws which would have required something special to catch, so whilst the figures are the figures, I did see that there was a little more to it.

I'm a Sutton owner in Dynasty and last season I never really felt Sutton was going to produce big... and that was nothing to do with the player himself.

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4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Sutton needs a QB who is willing to trust him and throw contestable balls.  He wins with his size, strength, athleticism, and body position - and he’s very good at it.  He’s a completely different animal than Hamilton or Patrick.  He is reliant on a QB willing to take a few chances, and from what I saw last year, that was not Keenum.  

I don't know, Sutton is a big dude for sure, but from what I've seen he doesn't really use his size to out-muscle anybody.

Also, he wasn't even the best producing WR on his college team.  To me he feels like a good 2nd option.

I'm still taking Hamilton here.

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3 hours ago, steevio_uk said:

Keenum played like a whelp last season. Going on what @Boudewijn touched on with his catch rate, I remember seeing a fair few downright horrible throws which would have required something special to catch, so whilst the figures are the figures, I did see that there was a little more to it.

I'm a Sutton owner in Dynasty and last season I never really felt Sutton was going to produce big... and that was nothing to do with the player himself.

Flacco isn't any better than Keenum though.  Gonna be a rough season if your expectations are high.

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On 5/26/2019 at 8:23 PM, dashoe said:

I dont have a strong or informed outlook on the denver passing offense so I havent bothered trying to tier the wr's.

Suttons appeal to me is he will be a rz target for flacco and people can feel how they want about Flacco but he is the best QB they have had since Manning and he will throw the ball downfield. 

I have a strong interest in royce this year as the player to own on this offense

 

I agree with you about Royce. I'm waiting on him and fading Lindsay this year.

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On 6/19/2019 at 6:44 PM, bomont said:

Any Bronc fans out there who saw a fair bit of him? Was this largely a problem with a lousy QB and offense or was he bad or what? 

I don't think much was expected of him year 1. He is very raw. QB didn't help, O line not great. Certainly not the most creative coaching staff either. All of these units should be improved this year. Sutton may still be a year away. Hamilton runs great routes and seems to be getting all the good reviews by the Bronco insiders. 

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3 hours ago, dogfightgiggle said:

 

Also, he wasn't even the best producing WR on his college team.  To me he feels like a good 2nd option.

I'm still taking Hamilton here.

 

That’s a little simplistic, don’t you think?

 

Sutton was one of the best WRs in college his soph year.  Because of that, Ds either rolled coverage his way or simply double teamed him in his jr - which was his final - year at SMU.  Because of all that additional attention, Quinn benefitted and turned in a great season.  And yet with the additional attention and his receptions going down, Sutton in his jr year saw his ypc stay about the same and he increased his TDs.

 

So while what tou are saying is accurate, it is a bit more nuanced than that.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I think he'll be fine in 2020 when drew lock is throwing him the ball. 

not saying flacco's 3-year contract is the key indicator here, but the broncos' modus operandi indicates flacco will be the QB in 2020.

also, flacco is better than drew brock. flacco's QB rating generally has him in the middle of the pack or at the end of the middle---16 to 25 range over the past five years----despite his obvious accuracy issues and poor decision making. it was a short season for flacco in 2018, but he performed well enough during this 9-game sample size that that ESPN rated him between cousins and dak. not saying flacco is equal to these guys, not saying flacco is a dependable QB, not saying he's good, just saying flacco's chemistry with courtland sutton this year will play into sutton's success in 2020.

BassPicksFlaccoChicago.gif

 

9 hours ago, steevio_uk said:

Keenum played like a whelp last season. Going on what @Boudewijn touched on with his catch rate, I remember seeing a fair few downright horrible throws which would have required something special to catch, so whilst the figures are the figures, I did see that there was a little more to it.

I'm a Sutton owner in Dynasty and last season I never really felt Sutton was going to produce big... and that was nothing to do with the player himself.

true that much of sutton's problems last year had to do with accuracy, with uncatchable passes, with whelpiness. totally agree.

but, scary fact for sutton dynasty owners: case keenum's accuracy last season was slightly better than joe flacco's (1.1% better according to profootball reference).

combine that with solid reports regarding sanders' recovery / rehab from his achilles (which is great news, because he's a great pro), and it might be another year of waiting for sutton. i'd say he's a "buy" in dynasty though, or at least if sanders returns and flacco rots---and sutton's price drops further---he's a definite buy. i like the kid's talent.

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17 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

also, flacco is better than drew brock. flacco's QB rating generally has him in the middle of the pack or at the end of the middle---16 to 25 range over the past five years----despite his obvious accuracy issues and poor decision making. it was a short season for flacco in 2018, but he performed well enough during this 9-game sample size that that ESPN rated him between cousins and dak. not saying flacco is equal to these guys, not saying flacco is a dependable QB, not saying he's good, just saying flacco's chemistry with courtland sutton this year will play into sutton's success in 

 

Hey your entitled to your opinion I just believe hes awful and wont last the season as the starter. Hes never thrown for more than 27 tds and broke 4000 yards just once and averages 13 ints a year. Hes always had an elite defense but since the superbowl struggles to get to 8-8. John elway wants to win and wants to win now and the fan base is one of the more delusional out there (but they've only had something like 8 losing season in since Pat Bowlen became the owner so they're entitled to it)

The Broncos still have a good foundation of players and I believe when flacco starts off poor like 2-6 and the team will make the switch or theyll get further in the season like 5-8 with no chance of playoffs and decide to start the rook.. just my guess I'm no fortune teller.

And when this does happen he'll find a wr he likes and target him often and I believe it will be the big one who is really athletic and catches contested balls well.

 

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3 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

That’s a little simplistic, don’t you think?

 

Sutton was one of the best WRs in college his soph year.  Because of that, Ds either rolled coverage his way or simply double teamed him in his jr - which was his final - year at SMU.  Because of all that additional attention, Quinn benefitted and turned in a great season.  And yet with the additional attention and his receptions going down, Sutton in his jr year saw his ypc stay about the same and he increased his TDs.

 

So while what tou are saying is accurate, it is a bit more nuanced than that.

 

I won't pretend to be an authority on SMU football, but just looking at the stats for '16-'17 I read it a little differently.

 

In '16:

Sutton - 76/1246/16.4/10

#2 WR J. Proche - 57/709/12.4/6

QB Hicks - 422att/2930/19/55.5%

 

In '17:

Sutton - 68/1085/16.0/12

J. Proche - 40/816/20.4/6

T.Quinn - 114/1236/10.8/13

QB Hicks - 472att/3569/33/58.5%

 

So Sutton only dipped by 8 receptions.  Overall passing TDs went up drastically so Sutton catching a couple more is no surprise.

J. Proche apparently got a new role in just catching bombs, as he lost 17 receptions but saw his Y/R go from 12.4 to 20.4.  TDs did not change, 6.

 

My take is that Quinn came in and basically became the focal point of the passing game, catching 114 balls.  SMU threw 50 more passes for 600 more yards and 14 more TDs in '17,  yet Sutton's role (unlike Proche's) and stats barely changed despite a drastically improved SMU passing attack.

 

I don't think it was all on rolled coverage.

Edited by dogfightgiggle
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1 hour ago, dogfightgiggle said:

 

I won't pretend to be an authority on SMU football, but just looking at the stats for '16-'17 I read it a little differently.

 

In '16:

Sutton - 76/1246/16.4/10

#2 WR J. Proche - 57/709/12.4/6

QB Hicks - 422att/2930/19/55.5%

 

In '17:

Sutton - 68/1085/16.0/12

J. Proche - 40/816/20.4/6

T.Quinn - 114/1236/10.8/13

QB Hicks - 472att/3569/33/58.5%

 

So Sutton only dipped by 8 receptions.  Overall passing TDs went up drastically so Sutton catching a couple more is no surprise.

J. Proche apparently got a new role in just catching bombs, as he lost 17 receptions but saw his Y/R go from 12.4 to 20.4.  TDs did not change, 6.

 

My take is that Quinn came in and basically became the focal point of the passing game, catching 114 balls.  SMU threw 50 more passes for 600 more yards and 14 more TDs in '17,  yet Sutton's role (unlike Proche's) and stats barely changed despite a drastically improved SMU passing attack.

 

I don't think it was all on rolled coverage.

 

So you proclaim that you aren’t an authority - presumably meaning all you are looking at is stats - yet you state that you don’t think D scheming by opponents had anything to do with it.  Well, just fyi Sutton was statistically the most double covered WR in college football his jr year.  There’s more to the game than just seasonal numbers.

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39 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So you proclaim that you aren’t an authority - presumably meaning all you are looking at is stats - yet you state that you don’t think D scheming by opponents had anything to do with it.  Well, just fyi Sutton was statistically the most double covered WR in college football his jr year.  There’s more to the game than just seasonal numbers.

 

Good luck with this point. I've been speaking to walls for years on this matter. 

 

Stats are cool, but are always manipulated in whatever direction a person wants to go. 

 

When you watch and know the game you understand so much more. 

 

What really has always mattered to me the most were the players (talent level / skill) and scheme they play in (largely affected by coaching staff, situation, and game flow). 

 

I think Sutton is a baller. Yes he's going to be lined up outside but he's proven he's more than just big and can make contested catches. The biggest question marks for me will be Flacco and his propensity to push down field (or not) under this coaching staff. Or will he just be a chain mover that leans on a still pretty darn good defense. 

 

I know fangio is gonna want this to be a defense first team. I have no idea really who rich scangarello is or what he believes in though. 

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

just fyi Sutton was statistically the most double covered WR in college football his jr year. 

I'm curious, where did you get that stat?

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40 minutes ago, bomont said:

I'm curious, where did you get that stat?

 

Reception Perception.  

 

It was pretty well documented that Sutton was facing double coverage and skewed secondaries his jr year, and that with his playing outside and running deeper patterns against adjusted Ds opened up the underneath for Quinn as well as causing Sutton’s numbers to drop.  I know at a minimum Football Outsiders and DLF picked up on it in their reports.  A lot of footage showed the same thing.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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