Joshmcd94

Courtland Sutton 2019 Outlook

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Sorry no idea what "Reception Perception" means-?  I don't see a web site based on that. For being "well documented" this seems rather dicey - not saying it isn't true, just skeptical atm. 

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44 minutes ago, bomont said:

Sorry no idea what "Reception Perception" means-?  I don't see a web site based on that. For being "well documented" this seems rather dicey - not saying it isn't true, just skeptical atm. 

 

You never heard of Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception?  Probably one of the most thorough and perceptive reports on WRs out there.

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-courtland-sutton-managing-the-alien-of-this-class/

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Thanks, no never heard of it or him. Not quite ready to take this one guy's report as some definitive source but not dismissing it either. 

I still say the Bronco WR situation is a coin flip :)

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4 minutes ago, bomont said:

Thanks, no never heard of it or him. Not quite ready to take this one guy's report as some definitive source but not dismissing it either. 

I still say the Bronco WR situation is a coin flip :)

 

Geez. Okay, it’s pretty simple.  Google “Courtland Sutton SMU double team” and you’ll find plenty of resources.   

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That's not really worth the effort, frankly, since even if true it doesn't really impact my opinion on the Bronco WR situation, but thx. 

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

That's not really worth the effort, frankly, since even if true it doesn't really impact my opinion on the Bronco WR situation, but thx. 

 

Well, it was my pleasure to introduce you to Matt Harmon’s work, since he is an evaluator worth knowing.

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14 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Flacco isn't any better than Keenum though.  Gonna be a rough season if your expectations are high.

9 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

but, scary fact for sutton dynasty owners: case keenum's accuracy last season was slightly better than joe flacco's (1.1% better according to profootball reference).

 

Sure. I don't know what the make-up of Flacco's throws were recently; were they longer attempts, under more pressure, I don't know - that's something one of you guys would probably be better to comment on. I'm certainly excited with the pairing of Flacco's arm and Sutton's deeper threat with it.

My expectations are certainly tempered. I've done ok to build a nice set of WR in Dynasty for a 2-4 year year project and Sutton is one of those. Should Flacco flop, I don't think it will be too long until we see Drew Lock, with no guarantee just how he will perform in the NFL, but certainly with a level of excitement that comes with him.

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6 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Reception Perception.  

 

It was pretty well documented that Sutton was facing double coverage and skewed secondaries his jr year, and that with his playing outside and running deeper patterns against adjusted Ds opened up the underneath for Quinn as well as causing Sutton’s numbers to drop.  I know at a minimum Football Outsiders and DLF picked up on it in their reports.  A lot of footage showed the same thing.

 

Here's the link, sorry about the weird font: https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-courtland-sutton-managing-the-alien-of-this-class/

"One last note: I rarely include the double coverage notes in these profiles because the number of plays where a receiver is truly “double covered” are so infrequent. However, for Sutton, it’s worth including. He saw double coverage on 28 routes, the most in this class, and posted a 53.6 percent success rate. His success rank ranks fifth among prospects charted who saw 20 or more attempts against double coverage."

It's a good point that he was doubled more than anyone in the class.  However, it's really just 28 routes and apparently there were at least five others who registered more than 20 such situations.  

I still find it interesting that the whole passing offense improved so dramatically off of these 28 double covered routes.

Edited by dogfightgiggle

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42 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

 

Here's the link, sorry about the weird font: https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-courtland-sutton-managing-the-alien-of-this-class/

"One last note: I rarely include the double coverage notes in these profiles because the number of plays where a receiver is truly “double covered” are so infrequent. However, for Sutton, it’s worth including. He saw double coverage on 28 routes, the most in this class, and posted a 53.6 percent success rate. His success rank ranks fifth among prospects charted who saw 20 or more attempts against double coverage."

It's a good point that he was doubled more than anyone in the class.  However, it's really just 28 routes and apparently there were at least five others who registered more than 20 such situations.  

I still find it interesting that the whole passing offense improved so dramatically off of these 28 double covered routes.

 

Man, some of you guys are difficult to have a discussion with.  That was for those games reviewed, and that would be where two guys would actually be assigned specifically to one guy as they come up to the line.

 

There are several scouting reports that have Sutton double and even triple covered in large portions of games - most notable UCF and TCU - where coverage was notably rolled to Sutton so that even though two guys weren’t assigned directly to him that the D was shaded over in what would effectively be double (or triple) coverage.

 

Do I need to supply all those reports also?  They are really easy to find in a web search of scouting reports on Sutton, so it doesn’t take much effort at all to acquire this data. You guys do that kind of research before FF drafts, right?

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18 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Man, some of you guys are difficult to have a discussion with.

i refuse to acknowledge your statement

images_easyblog_images_2163_tumblr_lzm57

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19 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Man, some of you guys are difficult to have a discussion with.  That was for those games reviewed, and that would be where two guys would actually be assigned specifically to one guy as they come up to the line.

 

There are several scouting reports that have Sutton double and even triple covered in large portions of games - most notable UCF and TCU - where coverage was notably rolled to Sutton so that even though two guys weren’t assigned directly to him that the D was shaded over in what would effectively be double (or triple) coverage.

 

Do I need to supply all those reports also?  They are really easy to find in a web search of scouting reports on Sutton, so it doesn’t take much effort at all to acquire this data. You guys do that kind of research before FF drafts, right?

 

I mean...does any of that even matter?   I fall on your side of the Sutton debate but this bickering over perceived college stats is silly.     

The buzz around Denver has been Sutton all offseason.   The local guys can barely go an hour without gushing over him.    He's been Flaccos sidekick- golfing,  extra time throwing at local high schools... and generally looking fantastic in that X role.    The guy will rarely leave the field and should get double digit targets most weeks.  Many of them down the field.   Brandon Marshall is a fair comp for what he could become as Sutton will be the centerpiece of that passing attack and possesses many of the same skills.  

   Now for Hamilton-  I question where DaeSean will fit if Sanders is ready to go sometime early season.   Manny claims to be way ahead of his recovery schedule.  Tim Patrick is going to outsnap Daesean and get the other full time role.    Fant is going to get integrated early and often as well.  

4/48,  5/67 is going to be the standard Hamilton line I’m afraid.    More useful IRL-  clutch 3rd downs and bail outs.  

And let’s not forget...this team wants to run the ball.  A lot.   Those two promising rookie backs plus a line upgrade has got them licking their chops.      

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.milehighreport.com/platform/amp/2019/5/24/18637988/courtland-sutton-breakout-season-2019

 

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32 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

He's been Flaccos sidekick- golfing,  extra time throwing at local high schools... 

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/06/13/courtland-sutton-joe-flacco-broncos/

So the pair recently joined backup quarterback Kevin Hogan and kicker Brandon McManus to play golf and get to know each other better.

“I got to sit in the cart with (Flacco), talk to him and pick his brain,” Sutton said. “Not only about ball, but how he is as a person and where his head is coming from.”

Ok, so they're not real golf buddies yet. Do you have a news report about the high school extra time?

 

 

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/06/13/courtland-sutton-joe-flacco-broncos/

So the pair recently joined backup quarterback Kevin Hogan and kicker Brandon McManus to play golf and get to know each other better.

“I got to sit in the cart with (Flacco), talk to him and pick his brain,” Sutton said. “Not only about ball, but how he is as a person and where his head is coming from.”

Ok, so they're not real golf buddies yet. Do you have a news report about the high school extra time?

 

 

Nah I just listen to the local radio a good bit.   You’ll have to dig for yourself if you need it in print lol

 

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11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Nah I just listen to the local radio a good bit.   You’ll have to dig for yourself if you need it in print lol

I appreciate that, but I'm even more suspicious of talk radio than of beat writers who hype guys. Talk is cheap, talk radio even more so.

I like the idea though of them clicking, and I'll keep an eye out during training camp and pre-season.

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19 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I appreciate that, but I'm even more suspicious of talk radio than of beat writers who hype guys. Talk is cheap, talk radio even more so.

I like the idea though of them clicking, and I'll keep an eye out during training camp and pre-season.

 

Believe what u wish-  many of us are drafting well before any confirmation of what this new offense looks like.    

  Bottom line I’d take a shot on Sutton where he’s going in the late single rounds over any other broncos target in the double digits.   

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Suttons level of disrespect throughout this offseason has been atrocious

The guy has a clear pathway to a WR1 role, has the skills to develop into an elite talent (did we mention the CMC level agility numbers?) And produced decently last year in a role he was thrust into early. In dynasty, thats all you can ask for. Hes easily a buy right now for me. 

Flacco is not the long term answer in denver, but i dont hate his prospects with Sutton either. Keenum LOVES his slot wrs/strong side formations. Saw this week in and week out when he was in minnesota. I feel better about Flacco then i did keenum. Not to mention, denver is probably still searching for that next stud qb if lock doesnt work out.

This year/redraft- sure. You could find reasons to talk yourself out of him, maybe other options in that area, but is it really that hard to see 700/4 increase to 1000/7? An additional 19 yards a game in a more developed role?

In dynasty hes an easy buy and an easy hold imo.

Bring me your sutton shares.

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6 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Suttons level of disrespect throughout this offseason has been atrocious

The guy has a clear pathway to a WR1 role, has the skills to develop into an elite talent (did we mention the CMC level agility numbers?) And produced decently last year in a role he was thrust into early. In dynasty, thats all you can ask for. Hes easily a buy right now for me. 

Flacco is not the long term answer in denver, but i dont hate his prospects with Sutton either. Keenum LOVES his slot wrs/strong side formations. Saw this week in and week out when he was in minnesota. I feel better about Flacco then i did keenum. Not to mention, denver is probably still searching for that next stud qb if lock doesnt work out.

This year/redraft- sure. You could find reasons to talk yourself out of him, maybe other options in that area, but is it really that hard to see 700/4 increase to 1000/7? An additional 19 yards a game in a more developed role?

In dynasty hes an easy buy and an easy hold imo.

Bring me your sutton shares.

 

Keep your hands off my Sutton vikes !!!

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Man, some of you guys are difficult to have a discussion with.  That was for those games reviewed, and that would be where two guys would actually be assigned specifically to one guy as they come up to the line.

 

There are several scouting reports that have Sutton double and even triple covered in large portions of games - most notable UCF and TCU - where coverage was notably rolled to Sutton so that even though two guys weren’t assigned directly to him that the D was shaded over in what would effectively be double (or triple) coverage.

 

Do I need to supply all those reports also?  They are really easy to find in a web search of scouting reports on Sutton, so it doesn’t take much effort at all to acquire this data. You guys do that kind of research before FF drafts, right?

 

Quit trying man. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't shove its face in it and force it to drink. 

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41 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I appreciate that, but I'm even more suspicious of talk radio than of beat writers who hype guys. Talk is cheap, talk radio even more so.

I like the idea though of them clicking, and I'll keep an eye out during training camp and pre-season.

 

Lol. If you didn't see it in an article it didn't happen? 

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@Impreza178 Sanders won't be ready. I've read all the same stuff. I don't believe it.

 

He got injured like week 10+ and he's trying to convince us he's gonna be ready for start of season? 

 

No way. There's 22 year Olds that can't pull that off. Every player in the offseason is always ahead of schedule but besides AP I've rarely ever seen it come to fruition. 

 

He's got a better chance of PUP than week 1 IMO. I think his cap hit of $13 M and cut cost of $4 M is doing the talking say he's gonna be ready here. If he came out and said, I'm probably not gonna be ready by week 8 if at all for 2019 I'm not sure the Broncos would even roster him. Elway is pretty loyal and he definitely helped them with a title though, so you never know. 

 

Also, why is there an Impreza 187 with same avatar? You got an Ivan Rapinoe? 

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6 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

@Impreza178 Sanders won't be ready. I've read all the same stuff. I don't believe it.

 

He got injured like week 10+ and he's trying to convince us he's gonna be ready for start of season? 

 

No way. There's 22 year Olds that can't pull that off. Every player in the offseason is always ahead of schedule but besides AP I've rarely ever seen it come to fruition. 

 

He's got a better chance of PUP than week 1 IMO. I think his cap hit of $13 M and cut cost of $4 M is doing the talking say he's gonna be ready here. If he came out and said, I'm probably not gonna be ready by week 8 if at all for 2019 I'm not sure the Broncos would even roster him. Elway is pretty loyal and he definitely helped them with a title though, so you never know. 

 

Also, why is there an Impreza 187 with same avatar? You got an Ivan Rapinoe? 

Lol.   Dude I spent months trying to get that original account fixed or deleted and the mods basically threw up their hands.    Some glitch with the big update a number of years back.   

 Re: Sanders

1- he is a proven fast healer

2- the video in the link below was shot over a month ago.   Tell me you’re not impressed. 💪 

3- Denver paid him over a million in roster bonuses already this offseason.   He could still be released prior to the 53-  but I’ve seen no indication Elway plans on cutting.   PUP is a possibility with a week 6 return.    Week 5-6 on limited slot snaps is in the cards.   None of this really matters for Sutton tho.   He’s locked and loaded as the 1.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/broncos-emmanuel-sanders-says-a-week-1-return-feels-realistic-despite-tearing-achilles-in-december/amp/

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Man, some of you guys are difficult to have a discussion with.  That was for those games reviewed, and that would be where two guys would actually be assigned specifically to one guy as they come up to the line.

 

There are several scouting reports that have Sutton double and even triple covered in large portions of games - most notable UCF and TCU - where coverage was notably rolled to Sutton so that even though two guys weren’t assigned directly to him that the D was shaded over in what would effectively be double (or triple) coverage.

 

Do I need to supply all those reports also?  They are really easy to find in a web search of scouting reports on Sutton, so it doesn’t take much effort at all to acquire this data. You guys do that kind of research before FF drafts, right?

Ok it's a new site to me, I wasn't aware that they were drawing from a sample rather than the whole season.

 

It says a lot that they chose to focus on shutting down Sutton.  I wonder if the approach was similar in '16?  It would seem like a an even better strategy given the lack of a strong secondary option.

Regardless, my original point in bringing up his college career was to illustrate that I see Sutton as a good, but not great nfl receiver.  

You can't necessarily disregard the fact that Sutton can be shutdown.  He was in fact shutdown basically his whole rookie season.  As the RP article says, he is a raw prospect.  Hamilton meanwhile was a more polished product and it showed.  Sutton was also bested by Patrick, a former UDFA who has bounced around a few teams.

 

In a dynasty I like Sutton fine, but in redraft I will always lean towards drafting the polished player.  

In regards to Flacco's impact, I think the last few receivers to get special attention were TE Pitta, an underneath compiler type, then Crabtree and Steve Smith, a couple of gritty/aggressive/alpha dog types.  Do any of these guys remind you of Sutton?

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22 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

He got injured like week 10+ and he's trying to convince us he's gonna be ready for start of season?

emmanuel sanders has had an otherwordly recocovery so far.

we all know about the achilles, a career-ender for many... and we know about athletes over 30 attempting to recover from this injury... but gotta take it on a case-by-case basis, and so far it's looking great for sanders.

7 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 Re: Sanders [...] 1- he is a proven fast healer

an understatement!

 

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10 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

 

You can't necessarily disregard the fact that Sutton can be shutdown.  He was in fact shutdown basically his whole rookie season.  As the RP article says, he is a raw prospect.  Hamilton meanwhile was a more polished product and it showed.  Sutton was also bested by Patrick, a former UDFA who has bounced around a few teams.

 

 

 

Hamilton had like 250/2

Patrick had like 350/1

In what world was that besting sutton?

Before the 2014 season, owners actually understood that a rookie wr might not be AWESOME the minute he hits the field. A rookie thrust into a wr1 role that was never planned for and he still put up 700/4. Cant undersell the toolbox he has at his disposal as well.

DJ moore pretty much had the same thing and hes already anointed a wr1.

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1 hour ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Suttons level of disrespect throughout this offseason has been atrocious

Ok, you lost me right there. Disrespect? Atrocious? He's a second year WR who received a great deal of hype, and those who aren't hyping him (eg me) like him a lot.

Come on man. We don't all have to think he'll have a monster year.

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