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Dante Pettis 2019 Outlook

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With a back-up QB, WR DPettis was the 20th rank WR in PPR weeks 10-16.

Most articles I’ve read very recently have Pettis tabbed as the WR1 in this Kyle Shanahan offense (Shanahan selected Pettis in the 2018 draft at 2:12 😳) Now JG is back under center, and there isn’t an established WR outside of Goodwin and...Pettis. Deebo is a rookie and works out of the slot. Goodwin appears to be better served as the 2/deep threat, and Hurd is probably a project. 

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12 hours ago, FollowTheLeader said:

With a back-up QB, WR DPettis was the 20th rank WR in PPR weeks 10-16.

Most articles I’ve read very recently have Pettis tabbed as the WR1 in this Kyle Shanahan offense (Shanahan selected Pettis in the 2018 draft at 2:12 😳) Now JG is back under center, and there isn’t an established WR outside of Goodwin and...Pettis. Deebo is a rookie and works out of the slot. Goodwin appears to be better served as the 2/deep threat, and Hurd is probably a project. 

 

I think he's safe for top 24 but has top 12 potential if he is "the guy" in Shanny's offense.  I'm a little nervous if he's my WR1 but that would mean I've got a good RB group.  I'll take him over Golliday or Woods at that spot.

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5 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I'll take him over Golliday or Woods at that spot.

What?? No way man, now you're exaggerating.

Pettis is a sophomore who had less than 500 yard last season; I think he can get 1000 yard. Nice.

Robert Woods has 6 years experience and had just under 1400 yard combined last season (with 7 TD and zero fumbles). You're not getting him at the same spot as Pettis.

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I'm not sure if you meant that you'd just wait and take Pettis later, but he's typically going a couple of rounds later than Golladay or Woods.     I like Pettis better too, but at that later price only, not at the same cost.   

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Agree with @Boudewijn assessment. Both Woods and Golladay waaaay before Pettis.

Personally, in my 14 Team IDP Redraft (currently in RD 10), I selected Woods with the 3:12 as my WR3 (Julio/Evans/Woods), Golladay went next at 4:04, and then 14 more WRs came off the board prior to my Pettis pick (we can start 4 WRs) at 7:12.

...just my 2 cents.

 

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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14 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

What?? No way man, now you're exaggerating.

Pettis is a sophomore who had less than 500 yard last season; I think he can get 1000 yard. Nice.

Robert Woods has 6 years experience and had just under 1400 yard combined last season (with 7 TD and zero fumbles). You're not getting him at the same spot as Pettis.

No...not at all.  I'm drafting from the 12 spot.  And one thing I've realized is how hard it is this year to put together a roster that gives me a clear advantage at a position (unless I took Kelce).  I feel like I have to take a chance somewhere and I think Pettis has a higher upside than either of those other two.  Golladay and Woods are clearly safer right now.  But I don't think either has a chance to be a top 12 guy.  

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I'd gamble that he's there at 6'12 then, and if he's not, maybe Christian Kirk?  Robby Anderson?     

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8 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I'd gamble that he's there at 6'12 then, and if he's not, maybe Christian Kirk?  Robby Anderson?     

I don't think he'll be there.  But you did pick out the two other two guys I try to get.  

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

What?? No way man, now you're exaggerating.

Pettis is a sophomore who had less than 500 yard last season; I think he can get 1000 yard. Nice.

Robert Woods has 6 years experience and had just under 1400 yard combined last season (with 7 TD and zero fumbles). You're not getting him at the same spot as Pettis.

 

4 hours ago, K197040 said:

No...not at all.  I'm drafting from the 12 spot.  And one thing I've realized is how hard it is this year to put together a roster that gives me a clear advantage at a position (unless I took Kelce).  I feel like I have to take a chance somewhere and I think Pettis has a higher upside than either of those other two.  Golladay and Woods are clearly safer right now.  But I don't think either has a chance to be a top 12 guy.  

 

4 hours ago, K197040 said:

I don't think he'll be there.  But you did pick out the two other two guys I try to get.  

 

Yeah...I'm wrong...by a large magnitude...

It's Godwin I've been taking over Golladay and Woods at the 3/4 turn.   Pettis I've been getting at the 5/6.

I really don't have a good explanation why I confused the two.  Red jerseys?  Either that or I'm an idiot sometimes.

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2 hours ago, K197040 said:

Yeah...I'm wrong...by a large magnitude...

It's all good man, we all have the occasional brain fart. It takes a man to admit it :)

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I've been intrigued all offseason but I feel Pettis is getting a bit overhyped by the industry. Reports from beat writers Cohn and Maiocco watching camp (along with hints from Shanahan during interviews) that he is being inconsistent still and is yet to step up the way the coaches had hoped he would have at this point. He did even lose starter reps for a few days this week, which very much looks like an attempt to light a fire.
 

"We brought in Dante (Pettis) last year, who stepped it up towards the end of the year and helped us. But I keep telling him we have high expectations for him. He needs to get better. He started off a little bit slow in camp, but he's turned it on here these last couple of days.
- Kyle Shanahan, Aug 3rd.
https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/126777-kyle-shanahan-expectations-dante-pettis-49ers-young-receivers/

WR Dante Pettis took most of his reps with the second-string offense after playing with the starters for most of camp.
- Grant Cohn, Inside the 49ers, Aug 6th.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-training-camp-day-9/

Meanwhile, Dante Pettis, who was expected to be the team’s top wide receiver in his second season, has yet to consistently step up his game on the practice field
- Matt Maiocco, NBC Sports Bay Area, Aug 8th.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-camp-report-jalen-hurd-showing-aggression-pass-catcher
 

I'm not suggesting Pettis won't be starting on the outside come week 1, but I am tempering my expectations for now. Really not so sure there is as clear a path to WR2 fantasy numbers as I have been thinking and fantasy sites and experts keep touting. The history of starting X receivers in a Shanahan offense, I know. But at this point very much looking like we will see both Kittle and Taylor ahead of him in targets.

Definitely something to follow closely through the rest of camp.


 

 

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Not sure why people are reading so much into camp narratives when we have actual real game footage of him playing. There is zero reason to believe he is a worse football player than what we saw on field last year.

Edited by MJJ28

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True but last year he had kittle and a bunch of meh wr. Now he has deebo and hurd who imo while rookies are far better talents than what he had on the field last year working alongside him. I still see his ceiling as being wr 20 this year but his floor his wr 40. It could be a repeat of last year where he gets hot 2nd half of the season. One thing is for sure if he does not light up garbage bucs secondary then that will be a letdown.

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4 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

Not sure why people are reading so much into camp narratives when we have actual real game footage of him playing.


In terms of trying to gauge if someone is able to take it from very promising play to really put it together as a focal point of an offense (with everything that comes with it from tougher coverage in games to outside pressure) from one season to the next, camp reports actually is key.

If reports are coming from more than one source as well, including his head coach, you take notice.

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24 minutes ago, Alconbury said:


In terms of trying to gauge if someone is able to take it from very promising play to really put it together as a focal point of an offense (with everything that comes with it from tougher coverage in games to outside pressure) from one season to the next, camp reports actually is key.

If reports are coming from more than one source as well, including his head coach, you take notice.

 

I haven’t seen anything negative in reports anyways, so not really sure what this is all about.

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38 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

True but last year he had kittle and a bunch of meh wr. Now he has deebo and hurd who imo while rookies are far better talents than what he had on the field last year working alongside him. I still see his ceiling as being wr 20 this year but his floor his wr 40. It could be a repeat of last year where he gets hot 2nd half of the season. One thing is for sure if he does not light up garbage bucs secondary then that will be a letdown.

 

More offensive talent just equals more fantasy points for everyone. Idk about you but I prefer my players to be on talent crowded offenses like the Chiefs or Rams, not sole options on offenses like the Titans or Jags.

Edited by MJJ28

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yes but the things kyle shanahan has been saying about pettis is not ideal. He is still worth his draft day cost but if the other night I saw him go for 17 in a auction within first 5 nominations and passed on him at that price. In a 12 team auction 2 weeks ago i got him for 3 dollars.

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16 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

yes but the things kyle shanahan has been saying about pettis is not ideal. He is still worth his draft day cost but if the other night I saw him go for 17 in a auction within first 5 nominations and passed on him at that price. In a 12 team auction 2 weeks ago i got him for 3 dollars.

 

Showering heaps of praise and positivity isn’t always the best way to get peak performance out of someone, just saying.

Shanahan said they have high expectations for him, he needs to get better, and that he has turned it on. Not sure what is concerning about that? Do you think he doesn’t need to get better? I would hope Shanahan thinks he needs to get better, that’s what coaches are paid to do.

Edited by MJJ28

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8 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Showering heaps of praise and positivity isn’t always the best way to get peak performance out of someone, just saying.

Shanahan said they have high expectations for him, he needs to get better, and that he has turned it on. Not sure what is concerning about that? Do you think he doesn’t need to get better? I would hope Shanahan thinks he needs to get better, that’s what coaches are paid to do.


Oh I was right with you at the time of that quote (Aug 3rd) and overall I agree with what you are saying. But if you read my whole post you will see that three days later he was even relegated to second team offense for a few days. Apparently he must have turned it back off again.

Both Ninersnation and Inside the 49ers camp blogs have consistently reported his up and down play, having him on the stock down list way more often than not.
Quotes from the stock down parts of Inside the 49ers blog below;
 

Quote

Sat Jul 27:
WR Dante Pettis. Ran a dig route over the middle and stopped running his route because the pass was slightly above his head. Pettis made no attempt to catch the pass. Didn’t even raise a hand. Bad.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-49ers-training-camp-day-1/

Sun Jul 28:
WR Dante Pettis. Beat Richard Sherman with an out route during 11 on 11s, but couldn’t beat Ahkello Witherspoon. And when Witherspoon jumped Pettis’ slant route and intercepted Garoppolo during 7 on 7s, Pettis didn’t fight for the ball – he gave up on it. Garoppolo scolded him after the play.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-49ers-training-camp-day-2/

Mon Jul 29:
WR Dante Pettis. Dropped three passes – two short ones and a long one. Pettis doesn’t seem to have improved from last season. In fact, through three camp practices he seems to have regressed and lost confidence. But, it’s still early. He could get better.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-49ers-training-camp-day-3/

Tue July 30:
WR Dante Pettis. Dropped two passes and caught just one of four targets. Pettis is an early candidate for the Ahkello Witherspoon Award, a.k.a. the second-year player who crumbles under the weight of unrealistic expectations. The 49ers are counting on Pettis to be their No. 1 wide receiver this season. He doesn’t seem ready for that responsibility.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-49ers-training-camp-day-4/

Fri Aug 2:
WR Dante Pettis. Made an extremely difficult one-handed catch while running a dig route over the middle. Call this Good Pettis. Also dropped a pass near the sideline and failed to outmuscle Greg Mabin for a contested catch. Mabin swatted the ball out of Pettis’ hands. Call this Bad Pettis. He does certain things well, but doesn’t seem consistent or strong enough to be a No. 1 wide receiver. The 49ers don’t have a No. 1 receiver.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-49ers-training-camp-day-6/

Tue Aug 6:
WR Dante Pettis. Took most of his reps with the second-string offense after playing with the starters for most of camp, and made a nice catch over the middle. But, Pettis let Greg Mabin snatch the ball out of his hands. Pettis has struggled bigtime throughout camp – he played better a year ago. The 49ers should have signed a proven veteran to compete with Pettis, instead of anointing him the No. 1 wide receiver after an inconsistent rookie season. He remains inconsistent.
https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-training-camp-day-9/


Topping Ninersnation's stock down list for the first two weeks of camp:

Quote

Pettis failed to take the step up many expected after an encouraging rookie season. The second-year wideout had his moments at camp, but was inconsistent and at times, unreliable. Drops were an issue for Pettis, especially if a defender was near the catch point. He struggled similiarly last year during this time. Pettis needs to utilize the preseason to show he’s more than capable of replicating his impressive end to 2018.
https://www.ninersnation.com/2019/8/9/20791925/training-camp-stock-report-49ers-preseason-opener-witherspoon-taylor-greenlaw-moore-shanahan


This was then followed by a third beat writer, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area, also reporting Pettis "has yet to consistently step up his game on the practice field". I love Pettis and would absolutely want to see him succeed, and he might just put it all together all of a sudden the next few weeks. But I just feel there is enough here coming from three separate beat writers to at least take notice, and as I said, keep following closely through camp.

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12 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

But I just feel there is enough here coming from three separate beat writers to at least take notice, and as I said, keep following closely through camp.

Solid stuff. Thanks, that's why I come to this forum.

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1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

@Alconbury are there any positive reports on other WRs in camp that are stepping up? Or is this looking like a split workload between a few WRs?


Not on the outside. Goodwin has been just as inconsistent for example. The far and away most consistent receivers getting the most praise have been George Kittle and Trent Taylor. But that's tight end and slot. They badly want a #1 on the outside as well and they do seem to be a little bit concerned about it at this point.

Most targets from Garoppolo through 11 days of camp (Aug 8):
George Kittle: 29 (17 receptions, 59% catch rate)
Trent Taylor: 27 (18 rec, 66%)
Dante Pettis: 22 (8 rec, 36%)
Tevin Coleman: 18 (9 rec, 50%)
Marquise Goodwin: 12 (4 rec, 33%)
Jordan Matthews: 11 (10 rec, 91%)

These numbers could perhaps suggest Garoppolo can't throw it to the outside, but while he had his ups and downs as well he seems to have steadily improved over these two weeks. Comments do lean towards it being Pettis and Goodwin not stepping up that's the biggest problem.

 

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2 hours ago, Alconbury said:

 But I just feel there is enough here coming from three separate beat writers to at least take notice, and as I said, keep following closely through camp.

I'm with you.  Feels like the "experts" are all over this guy which had me interested earlier in the draft process (because I'm a sheep apparently, baaa).  But the more I think about it/hear about it, I think I'm out.  The training camp reports are alarming, as is how small he is.  And I get that he "has done it on the field".  But so did Robert Foster.  Why is one creeping up towards the 6th round while the other is undrafted.  It's a rhetorical question, don't yell at me, I know why.  But it's meant to demonstrate that we shouldn't overvalue a couple games for an out of contention team last season versus everything we're hearing in training camp.  Starting to think it's just going to be Kittle and the RBs.  Sure, Pettis will have some booms, but don't think he's going to be anything close to reliable and ultimately not worth his current ADP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Also just want to add that the industry suffers from extreme, extreme groupthink.  Especially on sleepers.  No one wants to be the one that didn't "call" the sleeper.  So as soon as one place plants a flag and says they like a guy, they all follow suit very quickly.  Think the Pettis one started with the footballers, then Eisenberg jumped on, and now everyone.  And no one is more wrong more consistently than Eisenberg.

Anyway, the trail of these "sleeper WR" that the industry falls in love with is littered with complete busts.  In truth, 2019 Dante Pettis suddenly feels very similar to 2018 Allen Hurns to me.  The industry trying to force a guy into the #1 spot just because they don't see anyone else who will take it, and the industry hypes that player into a 5th or 6th rounder.  But guess what, if that players sucks, they're not going to take the job.  Hurns was a complete 0 last year, and feels like we're headed that way with Pettis.  

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1 hour ago, ThunderDan said:

Also just want to add that the industry suffers from extreme, extreme groupthink.  Especially on sleepers.  No one wants to be the one that didn't "call" the sleeper.  So as soon as one place plants a flag and says they like a guy, they all follow suit very quickly.  Think the Pettis one started with the footballers, then Eisenberg jumped on, and now everyone.  And no one is more wrong more consistently than Eisenberg.

Anyway, the trail of these "sleeper WR" that the industry falls in love with is littered with complete busts.  In truth, 2019 Dante Pettis suddenly feels very similar to 2018 Allen Hurns to me.  The industry trying to force a guy into the #1 spot just because they don't see anyone else who will take it, and the industry hypes that player into a 5th or 6th rounder.  But guess what, if that players sucks, they're not going to take the job.  Hurns was a complete 0 last year, and feels like we're headed that way with Pettis.  

 

The thing is, Pettis does not suck. He was electric in college and showed flashes last year too, he is loaded with talent. The camp issues are definitely concerning and his ADP is very high so I can see why people are avoiding but if he falls I’m not scared to draft him. 

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