BostonCajun

Matt Strahm 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

True - but the question is pretty simple: did you believe in him enough a week or so ago to draft him?  If so, you can’t just give up on him after two innings pitched on a night where he obviously had nothing.  (If he’s hurt, though, he becomes much more expendable.)

 

I believed in him at 93/94 With a nasty slider. 

88-90? I'm out at those speeds.  We'll see where he is next start. 

Edited by 96mnc
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1 minute ago, 96mnc said:

 

I believed in him at 93/94 With a nasty slider. 

88-90? I'm out at those speeds.  We'll see where he is next start. 

I would be as well.  I suppose my point is we currently have no reason to believe that’s anything more than an aberration.  If he’s healthy, I’d have to see at least a couple of more starts at low velo before cutting ties.

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9 hours ago, street sharks said:

What was his velo in ST?

 

I saw him throw Vs a watered down Brewers lineup in Peoria on 3/20. Sat right behind home plate - He sat primarily 89-91, with a few 92s.

 

In that game his FB command was alright but it was very clear he was pitching to impress/dominate by how many sliders he was throwing. His slider is no doubt a great pitch but it’s important to remember in spring you got kids like him playing for a spot, and lots of dudes just getting work. Can lead to inflated stat lines. 

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He is locked into the lineup for the week for me. I guess I will roll him Sunday and hope for the best but last night was disappointing. I am hoping it is an anomaly and not a sign of  things to come. 

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Maybe it was a mental thing. He got too amped up, then gave up a dinger right off the bat (pun) to Jones.

 

He fell out of sorts, couldn't locate and tried to take some velo off to hit some spots and was just out of whack. I pray they don't bump him from his next start so we can see how he comes back on Sunday...

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Depending on the size and/or competitiveness of your league, you can probably put him on the wire if there are other priority pick-ups out there, and see how he does in his next start. I don't think people will be rushing to scoop him, especially with the Cards up next. 

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What was the expectation here? That he’d be an ace right out of the gate?

I get the feeling most people have no clue what they bought into, were expecting a lot based off 60 some innings last year, ST stats, and a couple people mentioning him as a potential breakout.

If you’re not one of those people, you should be fine holding him for at least a little while longer.

 

 

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Well, there’s “Ace” and then there’s...whatever you want to call that.  I’d wager most people had expectations set somewhere in between the two.

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25 minutes ago, exaulz said:

What was the expectation here? That he’d be an ace right out of the gate?

I get the feeling most people have no clue what they bought into, were expecting a lot based off 60 some innings last year, ST stats, and a couple people mentioning him as a potential breakout.

If you’re not one of those people, you should be fine holding him for at least a little while longer.

 

 

Ace? No. 

But I don’t think it was too much to expect a decent outing against the D-Backs, and not walk Avila and the pitcher back to back. 

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The results were obviously terrible, but what really got me was his demeanor. If a bad start or a bad inning is going to rattle him to that degree I wouldn't feel comfortable rolling him out there.

He looked like a scared kid out there. 

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29 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Well, there’s “Ace” and then there’s...whatever you want to call that.  I’d wager most people had expectations set somewhere in between the two.

 

26 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Ace? No. 

But I don’t think it was too much to expect a decent outing against the D-Backs, and not walk Avila and the pitcher back to back. 

 

This.

 

SP 3-4 in 12 teamers? Yes...was hopeful for that, and still am.

 

The reaction is less about the awful line itself (see other good pitchers with bad lines already (e.g. Sale, Buehler), and more about HOW he came to that awful line.

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He really got babip'd. When a pitcher gets shelled there's typically a lot of hard hit balls. There were a few but a lot of them were little bloops that found their way onto grass as well. He was also in a lot of 0-2 counts.

 

I mean it was bad, but I'm willing to give him another start or two depending on how the Cardinals start goes (on my bench)

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3 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

The reaction is less about the awful line itself (see other good pitchers with bad lines already (e.g. Sale, Buehler), and more about HOW he came to that awful line.

 

100% 

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Fantasy leaguers gonna over-react. His first relief appearance last year was bad, he figured it out. Kid is a good pitcher, no pitcher throws 2 hitters in every start. Last night was a train wreck, but it happens. Move on. If you don't trust the guy, cut him and pick up David Hess. 

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IF he's still missing the 2.6+ MPH off the FB and getting beat around, then it might be time to really re-evaluate?

Results on Matt Strahm’s Fastball at Different Velocities (Jeff Zimmerman at RotoGraphs):
mph pERA GB% SwStr% Count
91 4.09 20% 8.7% 69
92 4.29 35% 8.9% 168
93 3.94 20% 9.3% 214
94 2.93 19% 13.6% 338
95 2.99 29% 14.2% 162
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4 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

IF he's still missing the 2.6+ MPH off the FB and getting beat around, then it might be time to really re-evaluate?

Results on Matt Strahm’s Fastball at Different Velocities (Jeff Zimmerman at RotoGraphs):
mph pERA GB% SwStr% Count
91 4.09 20% 8.7% 69
92 4.29 35% 8.9% 168
93 3.94 20% 9.3% 214
94 2.93 19% 13.6% 338
95 2.99 29% 14.2% 162

 

Go Hodags!

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4 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

IF he's still missing the 2.6+ MPH off the FB and getting beat around, then it might be time to really re-evaluate?

Results on Matt Strahm’s Fastball at Different Velocities (Jeff Zimmerman at RotoGraphs):
mph pERA GB% SwStr% Count
91 4.09 20% 8.7% 69
92 4.29 35% 8.9% 168
93 3.94 20% 9.3% 214
94 2.93 19% 13.6% 338
95 2.99 29% 14.2% 162

 

100%.

Velocity does matter for most guys especially young guys with shaky command.

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4 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

What was Strahm's velocity in spring training?

Velocity is often not tracked in ST

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5 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

What was Strahm's velocity in spring training?

I watched 3 of his spring outings since I drafted him in 7 leagues. He was sitting 92-94 and touching 95. I was impressed each time I saw him. I have no idea what happened with his first start. It’s concerning to see a velocity drop like that, especially given that you’d expect extra adrenaline in that first start.

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6 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I watched 3 of his spring outings since I drafted him in 7 leagues. He was sitting 92-94 and touching 95. I was impressed each time I saw him. I have no idea what happened with his first start. It’s concerning to see a velocity drop like that, especially given that you’d expect extra adrenaline in that first start.

Yep. I saw low-mid 90s fastball too. Here's a ST velo spreadsheet from fangraphs. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tGp4Hm-94yUZliKGsXdM4FOr2eNDXsGeTO8WfCnmzBE/edit#gid=2094273784

With that said, I'd bail for another intriguing arm like Pablo, Woodruff or what have you on your wire if his velocity stays low again.

Edited by fingy

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3 minutes ago, Panther239 said:

Am I an idiot for rolling him out at St. Louis?

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I wouldn’t.. I’m almost resigned to the fact I’m dropping him for Rodon or Sonny Gray.

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