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fawkes_mulder

Daniel Palka 2019 Outlook

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I'm so confused what to think of this guy.

 

Negatives:

Horrible plate discpline

Strikes out a lot

Bad at defense

Yonder Alonso and Jose Abreu dominate DH/1B.

Perhaps a strong side platoon guy (120 wrc+ vs RHP, 60 wrc+ vs LHP)

 

Positives:

Exit Velocity and raw power are insane. He's right there with Judge and Stanton. One of the few people in the game we can truly say has 80 grade power. 27 HR in 449 PA.

Lost about 20 pounds in the offseason and worked on outfield defense a lot. 

Clutch? I recall at least a few 9th inning/walk off hits/homeruns.

Path to playing time, even in OF? I mean are Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, Leury Garcia, and Jon Jay really that hard to beat out? Even when Eloy comes, I think he can probably still find playing time. PROBABLY.

11.1% walk rate in Sept/Oct. Better than the 6.7% on the year. I expect this number to go up in 2019.

 

Still worry he's a platoon guy, 25/27 HR came against RHP. But he could be a fun platoon guy to have in daily leagues for cheap cheap power. Wait did I just say that? Fun platoon guy? Ugh. Too much offseason.

 

I'm still intrigued.

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grey from razzball likes him too

 

could be a good 5OF if you need power and have some AVG guys

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Probably just a DFS guy for me. He's never shown ability to hit for average or get on base at any minor league level or in the majors. Maybe in daily leagues you can try to stream him. Deep deep bench leagues he'd be a solid guy to rotate in and out against weak RHP.

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16 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

I'm so confused what to think of this guy.

 

I'm still intrigued.

 

You see an enigma, I see a broken puzzle. I suppose I understand what people see, but ultimately I think they're using EV as an excuse to cover up the blemishes that are pretty much everything else Palka does. Bad defense. Bad K-BB. Even if he reigns the BB% in a little, still a windmill. Produced most of his numbers v. 4SFB and RHP. I don't understand comparing the power to Stanton and Judge. To each his own, I don't see that. 

 

He's a bad baseball player that a few individual metrics like, so some people think he's interesting. But when you look at the puzzle as a whole, at least IMO, it's broken. He's not a big leaguer. 

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To taobball's point, sometimes we think there may be a higher ceiling on a player when in actuality that player has already shown you who they are. I think Palka has deep-league value as an occasional power source but I wouldn't expect much more than that out of him. He'll be in the line-up until the White Sox get better options, and that time may not come until mid-season or all of 2019, but it's coming.

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52 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

You see an enigma, I see a broken puzzle. I suppose I understand what people see, but ultimately I think they're using EV as an excuse to cover up the blemishes that are pretty much everything else Palka does. Bad defense. Bad K-BB. Even if he reigns the BB% in a little, still a windmill. Produced most of his numbers v. 4SFB and RHP. I don't understand comparing the power to Stanton and Judge. To each his own, I don't see that. 

 

He's a bad baseball player that a few individual metrics like, so some people think he's interesting. But when you look at the puzzle as a whole, at least IMO, it's broken. He's not a big leaguer. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/daniel-palka-is-an-elite-power-hitter/c-288685816

 

I never said he was as good as Stanton or Judge. He's clearly not. But his power is up there, his BB% seems likely to rise just based off his profile, and he's an interesting guy for daily leagues vs. RHP (especially a league like mine which is OBP/SLG and no average).

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3 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/daniel-palka-is-an-elite-power-hitter/c-288685816

 

I never said he was as good as Stanton or Judge. He's clearly not. But his power is up there, his BB% seems likely to rise just based off his profile, and he's an interesting guy for daily leagues vs. RHP (especially a league like mine which is OBP/SLG and no average).

 

Sure, I didn't say that. But even giving his power tool a grade I don't think that I would put it in the same ballpark as Judge or Stanton. EV numbers don't complete define that. 

 

See.. but while I understand the BB% is on a rise... you just said especially for an OBP league... and he had a sub-.300 OBP last year. And the Bb% rose in September. So... could be taken as a grain of salt sample. 

 

I'd start against guys who lean 4SFB. I don't want to play him right now against most quality Righties really either who I believe cna execute, and at best I think he's someone pitchers warm up to and take out of the equation within the year. 

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Seems like a bad baseball player to me, but has some value because of categories. He will hit some home runs. He's not a guy I'll have on any of my teams, and the downside is he's not playing often because he's so bad.  If the cost is nothing and he's playing every day, he might have some hot stretches, just not a guy I want any sort of investment in. If it's a standard league, I'd imagine there are plenty of more interesting ww guys.  In a deep league I get it. RR has him as a strong side platoon OF.  I would rather have Jay Bruce than this guy, and I feel like Jay Bryce isn't owned in a lot of leagues.

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure, I didn't say that. But even giving his power tool a grade I don't think that I would put it in the same ballpark as Judge or Stanton. EV numbers don't complete define that. 

 

See.. but while I understand the BB% is on a rise... you just said especially for an OBP league... and he had a sub-.300 OBP last year. And the Bb% rose in September. So... could be taken as a grain of salt sample. 

 

I'd start against guys who lean 4SFB. I don't want to play him right now against most quality Righties really either who I believe cna execute, and at best I think he's someone pitchers warm up to and take out of the equation within the year. 

 

I'm not his biggest believer either. I cited many negatives in my initial post too, you know.

He doesn't have a very long leash on my team. But I think there's potential upside here and the guy at least deserves a rotoworld thread.

I think gun to my head, more likely than not he's a AAAA player, but I also think there's a small band of his range of outcomes where the chips all fall and he's mashed 40+ HR. I also think a RHP platoon replication of last year is within his range of outcomes which still has value in deep leagues.

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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7 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

I'm not his biggest believer either. I cited many negatives in my initial post too, you know.

He doesn't have a very long leash on my team. But I think there's potential upside here and the guy at least deserves a rotoworld thread.

I think gun to my head, more likely than not he's a AAAA player, but I also think Jose Bautista (not the version right now) is within a small band of his range of outcomes. I also think a RHP platoon replication of last year is within his range of outcomes which still has value in deep leagues.

 

Joey Bautista is a bad comp IMO because Joey Bautista was Rhys Hoskins before Rhys Hoskins and had an incredibly underrated ability to make contact. He never would've struck out at near 30%. Even before breakout his career highs were in the 21-23% range. Palka is Chris Carter if things break right. 

 

And I didn't say you were in love with him. You're certainly not the crazy one when it comes to this guy. I've seen some touting this guy, probably on that EV noise, like he's the s--- that's going to win you your league. But it's like I said in my initial statement, and I'll even expand the metaphor:
 

If you're sold on the mystery of a puzzle, you may sit there for hours in wonderment trying to figure out how it goes together, when in reality there is no mystery at all: the Puzzle pieces simply DONT fit together. That's what Palka is to me. I don't see, through the good and the bad, a player who is at all enigmatic. I see a player whose flaws are too great to ever keep him from maximizing on the ONE particular trait he happens to have. Put a Tebow comp on him for all I give a rats. 

 

 

Edited by taobball

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you know what, you guys are the voice of reason and I kinda agree with you all, i'm gonna trade for steven souza and get this turd off my team.

 

Will be interesting to revisit this thread in a couple months. There's Hills to die on and this isn't the one for me.

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Joey Bautista is a bad comp IMO because Joey Bautista was Rhys Hoskins before Rhys Hoskins and had an incredibly underrated ability to make contact. He never would've struck out at near 30%. Even before breakout his career highs were in the 21-23% range. Palka is Chris Carter if things break right. 

 

And I didn't say you were in love with him. You're certainly not the crazy one when it comes to this guy. I've seen some touting this guy, probably on that EV noise, like he's the s--- that's going to win you your league. But it's like I said in my initial statement, and I'll even expand the metaphor:
 

If you're sold on the mystery of a puzzle, you may sit there for hours in wonderment trying to figure out how it goes together, when in reality there is no mystery at all: the Puzzle pieces simply DONT fit together. That's what Palka is to me. I don't see, through the good and the bad, a player who is at all enigmatic. I see a player whose flaws are too great to ever keep him from maximizing on the ONE particular trait he happens to have. Put a Tebow comp on him for all I give a rats. 

 

 

 

I edited the bautista bit because he Ks way too much. you caught me before edit took place. I think I'm bailing on Palka.

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11 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

I edited the bautista bit because he Ks way too much. you caught me before edit took place. I think I'm bailing on Palka.

 

Well and like I said to make this point clear: I have seen, and I can't remember whom, but I have seen some CRAZY takes on Palka. I am no stranger to having CRAZY takes myself. In this particular case... ya know what this is a tangent... but I freaking LOVE Yonder Alonso... and there'a universal zero f***s given. I just don't get it. Abreu and Alonso are going to be much better. Low OBP might now even be worth the terrible defense. WAR will hate him. Palka broke out and couldn't string a .300 OBP, and everyone says his defense is a**. PT short term in this case is more defensible because of White Sox, but if you're gonna be the DH you better be a damn good hitter. I'd never consider a .300 OBP at DH, in any sample that I could think of that isn't fictitious like 90 HRs. And even if you believe he can be a walker, he's still a 30+% K guy and a Low-LD Pull hitter, meaning I can't project him to be much better than .215-.235. Individual pitch metrics are something I do much more than the consensus, and he's also showing up as a bad breaking ball hitter and a great 4SFB hitter, which is typically one of the most common flare up and flare out skill-sets. 

 

EV is one of the most valuable individual metrics we have, but I think analyst to analyst you can find guys who fall in love with particular numbers and you can almost define their rankings based on a bias to those numbers. EV is one particular metric that has a wide folllowing, and you know some people who LOVE to talk about a guy's EV as THE defining point of their argument. I'm not saying everyone who loves Palka is doing that, but I also know people who if they heard me say that I didn't really care what his EV's were compared to the rest of his profile, they would call me bat****. But I don't really care what the EVs are in the grander scheme of his profile. 

Edited by taobball

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