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Framber Valdez 2019 Outlook

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Due to the injury to Josh James, and the Astros possibly wanting to keep Peacock in the pen, is this guy going to start? Valdez has a sick GB% and the Astros are great at developing pitchers. His BB/9 was almost double his minor league numbers, so I anticipate that to normalize in the MLB. You guys buying?

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He's a sleeper for sure, just needs to get the walk rate under control. IIRC he has a pretty good curve he just needs to get it over the plate. Could be a sneaky end of bench SP5/6 type.

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His walk rate is ugly. He clearly got lucky last year in a small sample which led to the decent numbers he posted (FIP and xFIP above 4). He only has 8.2 career innings in AAA, and in 22 AA starts he wasn't very impressive either. Maybe his walk rate isn't THAT bad but it was still always below average in the minors. His strikeouts also consistently dropped as a starter vs a reliever. He screams of a guy that needs some seasoning in AAA.

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I would take a chance if there isn’t anybody left . The walks will kill you and do him in . Plenty of much better choices 

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17 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I would take a chance if there isn’t anybody left .

 

So you'll take him if he's the last player out of the MLB pool of players???

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

So you'll take him if he's the last player out of the MLB pool of players???

 

the-misadventures-of-literal-larry_c_355

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Framber is in the bullpen now. He may eventually work into the rotation, but he’d need to be stretched out. 

Also seems the Astros are fairly well-off in their rotation:

-JV

-Cole

-McHugh

-Peacock

-Miley

With Peacock’s bloated ERA, however, and his success in the bullpen in the past, one wonders if switching Valdez with Peacock might suit the Astros well. 

Any Houston peeps with word on the street on this?

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First start is vs Bal which is nice. But the WHIP and BBs seem to be in line with everyones' previous concerns. Anything to really be excited about here?

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Adding everything,  its Houston.  Basically an automatic win

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Deep league add for sure, imo. It's a combo of great stuff meets great opportunity. Here is his chart from Mon (his longest appearance of season):

FB- sat 94 MPH with wicked movements on it, threw 21--only 12 strikes but 10 swings and 1 whiff

CU- this baby is a 'hamma' spun up 26-- at a 50% strike rate with 6 cuts and 4 whiffs, 79 MPH on average

SI- averaged 92 MPH, great horizontal action and he commanded it much better, threw 18--12 strikes with 10 swings and 3 whiffs

Here is a snippet from Klaw's pre-season prospect package, where he ranked 13th in the deeeep HOU system:

"Lefty Framber Valdez has big stuff, with a plus fastball with life, a grade-70 curveball with high spin and a changeup with two-seam action to it, an arsenal that would seem to make him an elite prospect. He doesn't have the command or control to be that guy, perhaps because his arm action is so short that it's tough to repeat, so he seems like a good multi-inning reliever candidate or maybe a twice-through-the-order starter at the back of a rotation."

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I think Valdez will be a quality back end starter. Great chance for wins and will probably toss a lot of quality starts. Solid back end fantasy pitcher for any team looking for depth and help. 

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On 6/5/2019 at 10:50 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Deep league add for sure, imo. It's a combo of great stuff meets great opportunity. Here is his chart from Mon (his longest appearance of season):

FB- sat 94 MPH with wicked movements on it, threw 21--only 12 strikes but 10 swings and 1 whiff

CU- this baby is a 'hamma' spun up 26-- at a 50% strike rate with 6 cuts and 4 whiffs, 79 MPH on average

SI- averaged 92 MPH, great horizontal action and he commanded it much better, threw 18--12 strikes with 10 swings and 3 whiffs

Here is a snippet from Klaw's pre-season prospect package, where he ranked 13th in the deeeep HOU system:

"Lefty Framber Valdez has big stuff, with a plus fastball with life, a grade-70 curveball with high spin and a changeup with two-seam action to it, an arsenal that would seem to make him an elite prospect. He doesn't have the command or control to be that guy, perhaps because his arm action is so short that it's tough to repeat, so he seems like a good multi-inning reliever candidate or maybe a twice-through-the-order starter at the back of a rotation."

 

On 6/5/2019 at 11:28 AM, buster444 said:

Wasn't interested based on his walk rate but then I saw his Zone% and F-strike% graphs...

Framber Valdez F-strike % and Zone % by Game

Buster; sorry, I'm ignorant to this; what are you saying with the zone % and f-strike %? Thanks!

 

Either of you or anyone; he threw 65 pitches last time out- think he can get up to 80 or so?

 

Anyone seen anything about a potential pitch count for tomorrow?

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9 hours ago, WTP333 said:

 

Buster; sorry, I'm ignorant to this; what are you saying with the zone % and f-strike %? Thanks!

 

If you click the link, the graph shows his zone % and f-strike % increasing as 2019 progresses.

This suggests his control is getting better, which has been his one big problem.

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Anybody watch his start? Looking at the box score and the play-by-play, it looks like he had a decent mount of swinging strikes. Also, a 12:1 GB:FB!

Might have to temper expectations a little since it was against the Orioles, but encouraging nonetheless.

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4 hours ago, buster444 said:

Might have to temper expectations a little since it was against the Orioles, but encouraging nonetheless.

Agreed... to an extent. They've been hitting lefties really well the past two or three weeks. One of the reasons I bailed on streaming him tonight.

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Got past 80 pitches, and the stuff looked plenty good...not to mention some very workable command, was mostly 2 pitches...hopefully mixes in more, chart was good:

SI- and boy it was a sinkin' threw 43--31 for strikes with 25 cuts on it and 4 whiffs, also had good marks for vert run and sat 92.5 MPH

CU- as advertised, big hammer, spun up 31--20 strikes with 14 swings and 5 whiffs...it averaged 80.0 MPH

FB- looks like a cutter to me and 96+mph with serious late break, only 6--5 strikes with 3 cuts on...def want to see this more

CH- only 4 with a strike and a cut on it, sat 88 MPH which is in a nice sweet middle for his velo spectrum, also had a lot of drop...just needs to develop a feel for it

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Can anyone confirm he's slated to start Saturday vs. Toronto?

I read that because Houston has a couple off days this week, it's possible they skip his turn?

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52 minutes ago, NolanRyan said:

Can anyone confirm he's slated to start Saturday vs. Toronto?

I read that because Houston has a couple off days this week, it's possible they skip his turn?

saw this yesterday (although i thought Miley was going on Sunday).

 

 

Yordan Alvarez will likely play left field on Saturday behind Framber Valdez and could play there again Monday behind Wade Miley.

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