BrianM

Curtis Samuel 2019 Outlook

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Starting a thread for Curtis, who's an early candidate for me for a back end WR I can hopefully snag for cheap, and start most weeks in my deepest league.   He had two games late in the year with double digit targets, and he found the end zone 7 times on less than 50 touches.     

We've got Funchess gone I imagine, but DJ Moore likely leading the team in WR targets.  McCaffrey obviously is the engine here, but I'm hoping he's earned his way into a decent role, and he's now a guy i can get for $5 or 6 in my auction.   

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He still put up double digit PPR points in both Cam-less weeks at the end of the season for what little that's worth..  I dont see a ton of upside, but he looks great as both a safety valve and a jet sweep type of guy.     The last 7 weeks, he got 7 targets a game, though some weeks were high and others low.   Big big IF, but if he can keep that average, he's a WR3.  Not a league winner, but a good value as a guy that buoys you in a deep league.  

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I like Samuel myself but I think he's still only a wr2 type rather than a wr1.  He is still raw and figuring out the wr position because he was mostly a rb in college at Ohio State.

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2 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I like Samuel myself but I think he's still only a wr2 type rather than a wr1.  He is still raw and figuring out the wr position because he was mostly a rb in college at Ohio State.

and he has mostly been injured as a pro.😅

This team is broken in terms of the passing game, dump offs to CMC is not the answer and we need to see how they will fix it

Edited by dashoe

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Somehow didn't mention the injuries in my opener.  Definitely a concern.    Hoping he stays a mostly ignored, low risk option.   That way if he does get hurt, its not a season killer.  

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All things considered and with the injury risk, I think that Samuel should be no higher than a 7th round pick in 12 team leagues this coming season.

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53 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

All things considered and with the injury risk, I think that Samuel should be no higher than a 7th round pick in 12 team leagues this coming season.

 

Absolutely if they decide not to work anything out with Funchess.

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23 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Absolutely if they decide not to work anything out with Funchess.

Yeah, my post is contingent on if Samuel is the #2 wr for the Panthers.  If Funchess is resigned or another player is signed to be the #2 (D.J. Moore should be the #1 wr if a #1 type wr is signed), Samuel would be on the borderline of being drafted as the #3 wr for Carolina and with his injury history.

Edited by sjm76

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On 3/2/2019 at 2:52 PM, sjm76 said:

All things considered and with the injury risk, I think that Samuel should be no higher than a 7th round pick in 12 team leagues this coming season.

And a waiver-wire option week 3 if one is honest.

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I don’t understand his adp compared to Moore’s other than people (unsurprisingly) don’t watch the panthers and have no idea how to evaluate our guys. CS was the 8th pick in the 2nd round 3 drafts ago. He’s somewhat injury prone but a much better route runner than Moore and easily the best wr on the team rn. Masses just know Moore was a first round pick and think he’s the wr1. Baring an unforeseen increase in route running capabilities, I doubt Moore is the wr1 for us in real life or fantasy. You can be concerned about camvp’s shoulder but even if hes replaced CS is still better than Moore and a steal at his current adp

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On 3/1/2019 at 11:42 AM, sjm76 said:

I like Samuel myself but I think he's still only a wr2 type rather than a wr1.  He is still raw and figuring out the wr position because he was mostly a rb in college at Ohio State.

Lol. If CS is raw Moore is still mooing

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36 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

I don’t understand his adp compared to Moore’s other than people (unsurprisingly) don’t watch the panthers and have no idea how to evaluate our guys. CS was the 8th pick in the 2nd round 3 drafts ago. He’s somewhat injury prone but a much better route runner than Moore and easily the best wr on the team rn. Masses just know Moore was a first round pick and think he’s the wr1. Baring an unforeseen increase in route running capabilities, I doubt Moore is the wr1 for us in real life or fantasy. You can be concerned about camvp’s shoulder but even if hes replaced CS is still better than Moore and a steal at his current adp

 

injuries + CMC is  a target hog in the short passing game+the view is moore is the lone down field target for a big arm cam( memories of kelvin)

I personally think a healthy samuel reduces the fantasy value of cmc and he finishes higher than Moore but he has yet to stay on the field and show his talent consistently. 

People forget this dude was a 2nd rd pick in a loaded rb class. . .  and he was DRAFTED AS A WR

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41 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

injuries + CMC is  a target hog in the short passing game+the view is moore is the lone down field target for a big arm cam( memories of kelvin)

I personally think a healthy samuel reduces the fantasy value of cmc and he finishes higher than Moore but he has yet to stay on the field and show his talent consistently. 

People forget this dude was a 2nd rd pick in a loaded rb class. . .  and he was DRAFTED AS A WR

People think Moore is a downfield threat? Where’s that coming from lol. He’s electric with the ball in his hands but we had to scheme the ball to him and when we didn’t he usually found a hole in zone. This isn’t me hating on Moore as I do think he’ll improve and he has pretty much everything but route running down- yac, catch in traffic, etc. Curtis is my bet to take over the funchess/ wr1/ X role in the offense. He’ll run short stuff too of course, but more medium/ deep routes than Moore. Moore’s draft spot probably won’t allow this, but his best spot rn would be in the slot where he has a free release. Well see though. Curtis will be an outside wr regardless (though we do switch people all around)

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I'm guessing Moore has more hype because he made some big plays last year.  He also was on the radar as the first receiver drafted.   Samuel was more of a project, and not someone on many people's radar last offseason, in large part because of the injuries.   Even when he started putting up good weeks, Samuel wasn't getting hyped much.  People saw that monster week Moore had and he got the attention.  

As for the downfield threat thing, people probably saw an 80 yard TD and a 50 yard one and whirred right to "deep threat" part of their brains.    His YPC was Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp-ish.   I actually really like both players for fantasy's sake though.

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As it stands now, I'd rather take Samuel in round 12 than DJ Moore in round 5.  After Samuel returned from injury in week 5 - ROS, he and Moore were basically even in fantasy scoring.  I'm not convinced that Moore is better than Samuel and will gladly take a 7 round discount on Curtis.

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Samuels' problem has been staying healthy going back to college.  He is also still learning to become a wr in the NFL because he was mainly a rb in college.  If he can stay healthy and continues to develop as a wr, I think that at minimum he can become a very solid #2.

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you can see in these highlights cams arm was failing him. Unfortunately CS was “injured” (irregular heartbeat and was eased back into snaps once cleared) while cam was still 100% and didn’t really reclaim his starting role until cams arm started to go. You’ll also see that he’s pretty deadly with those end arounds (so is Moore)

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This thread hasn’t been commented on in over 2 months and since then Samuel has been growing a ton of steam.

Its to the point where many on twitter are arguing whether Moore or Samuel will be the breakout WR in Carolina this year.

Will be interesting to see how much his price tag goes up by late August.

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Ugh, I hate it when i find a guy i love for cheap and he just keeps climbing up without even doing anything.   Stop it!  

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auction decision, im thinking $10-15 for Moore and $5-8 for Samuel.  For me it depends on how my roster and cost fill out before this decision unless they are nominated very early, but ill take either option for FLEX and be very happy.

 

 

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ugh I don't plan on more than $2-4 each but then again I'm in a 10 teamer.

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For auction purposes, he's a guy i just dont nominate.   Late draft guys I target are best left untouched until someone else forces my hand.  By the time a guy like Samuel hits the board in a 12 teamer- 3 or 4 guys might be out of money, and another few might have a full WR depth chart.     My auction just changed formats but i think i'm looking for him around 5 or 6 bucks if I can

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On 7/16/2019 at 6:31 PM, Singing in Dwayne said:

I wouldn't mind him as a WR4, but I don't see the upside to really like him.

 

You are so right. I also don’t see the upside.

A guy who when targeted on the perimeter last season, Panthers QBs had a 125.2 passer rating. That is INSANE. It’s clear he is likely going to be the X received this year with Moore in the slot.

I don’t see the upside in a guy who scored 7 touchdowns on just 47 touches last season!? SEE, HE ONLY HAD 47 TOUCHES!” He missed the first 4 games of the season with a heart condition and Rivera has said on record they took a lot of heat for not playing him more but they had to ease him in.

ALSO, Devin Funchess is gone which opens up 100 targets in that offense. No upside there? He will now be a clear starter and should be on the field for nearly every offensive snap. He only had a 44.1% snap count and still had nearly 500 yards. Increase that by at least 20% in a starters role with a now healthy offseason...

He had 8 games over 10 fantasy points last season in a limited and eased in role. He didn’t play over 40 snaps until week 12!

Also, not seeing the upside on a guy who when he went over 50% in last 6 games of 2018 & scored double digit PPR points in 5 of those 6 games.

Oh, and when him and DJ Moore were on the field together, Samuel was targeted more.

Also, the kid is in the 94th percentile in the league in terms of success against man and press coverage... Success rate of 76.6 % on routes vs man coverage ties for 6th in the NFL. I mean, he’s the fastest 40 time to ever come out of Ohio State (technically tied with Paris Campbell now).

On Matthew Harmon’s reception perception, that route tree is alllll kinda of green. His receiving grade went from 54 to 75 in a year. His route tree went from 4 routes to 10 and he has been sited as running some of the cleaning routes in the league now, some even comparing him to Diggs in terms of release.

From the Charlotte Observer: “I’d expect the Panthers to get the ball in Samuel’s hands as much as possible in space, whether it as a pass-catcher or runner. He’s just as dangerous on an end-around as he is on a go route, and he also has potential as a kick returner. I’m not one to predict fantasy-football stats, but if you’re looking for someone (somewhat) under the radar who will play a major offensive role for a playoff contender, Samuel’s your man.”

 

WR4? Shoot, he’s probably a WR5 at best. I just don’t see the “upside.”

 

 

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