BrianM

Curtis Samuel 2019 Outlook

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This game might feature the most running plays in league history. 
 

I could even see both coaches agreeing to have qbs take turns kneeling for 59 min then settling the match with 50 yard FG attempts. 

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Anyone think he gets it going this week, I’m somewhat pessimistic about him. What’s Tennessee’s secondary look like these days?

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55 minutes ago, Krambone said:

Anyone think he gets it going this week, I’m somewhat pessimistic about him. What’s Tennessee’s secondary look like these days?

 

I'm dropping one of Curtis or Pascal and playing the other. Curtis' health this week made me nervous but if he's a full go I'm on board this one last week. 

I'm starting to look at Curtis like I do Corey Davis. They have all the talent in the world.. They just never have that break out. Another week of 3-5 points and I'm dropping him as a land mine. 

Edited by Neauxls
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2 hours ago, Neauxls said:

 

I'm dropping one of Curtis or Pascal and playing the other. Curtis' health this week made me nervous but if he's a full go I'm on board this one last week. 

I'm starting to look at Curtis like I do Corey Davis. They have all the talent in the world.. They just never have that break out. Another week of 3-5 points and I'm dropping him as a land mine. 

Hard to have a breakout when you have never had a QB capable of throwing the ball.

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On 11/2/2019 at 12:38 PM, Neauxls said:

 

I'm dropping one of Curtis or Pascal and playing the other. Curtis' health this week made me nervous but if he's a full go I'm on board this one last week. 

I'm starting to look at Curtis like I do Corey Davis. They have all the talent in the world.. They just never have that break out. Another week of 3-5 points and I'm dropping him as a land mine. 

There are a bunch of reasons that you should have much more confidence in Samuel than Davis. I own both players, so I can understand how/why it feels that way in terms of them both seemingly being on the verge of breaking out, but so far that breakout still remains fleeting. But I think Samuel is set up a lot, lot better for that breakout to occur than Davis. I mean that for today and for the future as well.

For starters, they're very different physically. Davis has a solid 4 inches and 15-20 lbs on Samuel. CD is a bigger, more physical presence; a guy with manageable speed that’s roughly average by NFL wideout standards (4.45 territory); the type of wide receiver who’d make his bones with his YAC coming through his physicality.

Whereas as Samuel is a smaller wideout with tremendous hops (37 in vert) and excellent athleticism, and in possession of elite quickness and very real game-breaking speed (4.31 at the 2017 combine). He’s doubly dangerous in that he can house any ball he gets in space, due to his quickness/speed combo, and what he lacks in height, he makes up for in hops, which allows him to possess the ability to high point a ball and make plays over bigger, more physical DBs.

But more importantly, as well as the bigger difference between the two, is the production. Samuel gets a lot more looks than Davis. Looks as in targets. And not only does he receive greater volume than Davis, he gets it more consistently too. Davis gets fewer looks, and the spread between the looks he gets from week to week is a lot more volatile than Samuel.

In other words, Samuel will have weeks where he'll see double digit targets (in 2019, of the 8 he’s played up to this point, he has an 11 target game and a 13 target game as well), and at the same time, I don’t believe he’s had fewer than 6 targets once all season. Davis on the other hand, over 9 games played this season, the most looks he’s seen is is 7...which he’s done all of once. Otherwise, in 6 of the 9 he’s played - so 2/3’s of the time - he’s seen 5 targets or fewer.

And when you combine the skill set of Samuel, which is one that has the capacity for splash play/huge gainers a lot more so than Davis, with the greater and more consistent weekly volume Davis gets...well you get more production; and to be honest, Samuel’s due for some positive regression there. Because with the amount of looks he’s getting, he’s statistically due to have more of those targets convert into receptions. If he were to start connecting on even as little as 1 or 2 of those targets a game, that could be the difference between 3 for 64 and 5 and 120. Doesn’t take much space with Samuel before it’s off to the races. 

Additionally, Samuel is a playmaker in the red zone too. He’s a touchdown scorer. He has 4 in 2019, on pace for 8...but he could still find the end zone upwards of 10 times. Not saying he will, but the ceiling for that is there. With Corey Davis - although an overall decent TD scorer I suppose - frankly, his ceiling to receive em is average. Plus Tennessee spreads the ball around to more guys. There’s rookie AJ Brown (who looks like the better talent he and Davis, btw), slot guy Adam Humphries, couple TE’s, Dion Lewis, Tamar Sharpe. None of them particularly eat any given week, but they all get nibbles - Davis included. In Carolina it’s DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel. No other wide receivers that they’re actively throwing too. There’s trusty old TE Greg Olsen sometimes in the mix too, but he’s like 40 now and his share has tailed off. 

TL;DR...

Curtis Samuel > Corey Davis

Edited by Chest-Rockwell
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2 hours ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

There are a bunch of reasons that you should have much more confidence in Samuel than Davis. I own both players, so I can understand how/why it feels that way in terms of them both seemingly being on the verge of breaking out, but so far that breakout still remains fleeting. But I think Samuel is set up a lot, lot better for that breakout to occur than Davis. I mean that for today and for the future as well.

For starters, they're very different physically. Davis has a solid 4 inches and 15-20 lbs on Samuel. CD is a bigger, more physical presence; a guy with manageable speed that’s roughly average by NFL wideout standards (4.45 territory); the type of wide receiver who’d make his bones with his YAC coming through his physicality.

Whereas as Samuel is a smaller wideout with tremendous hops (37 in vert) and excellent athleticism, and in possession of elite quickness and very real game-breaking speed (4.31 at the 2017 combine). He’s doubly dangerous in that he can house any ball he gets in space, due to his quickness/speed combo, and what he lacks in height, he makes up for in hops, which allows him to possess the ability to high point a ball and make plays over bigger, more physical DBs.

But more importantly, as well as the bigger difference between the two, is the production. Samuel gets a lot more looks than Davis. Looks as in targets. And not only does he receive greater volume than Davis, he gets it more consistently too. Davis gets fewer looks, and the spread between the looks he gets from week to week is a lot more volatile than Samuel.

In other words, Samuel will have weeks where he'll see double digit targets (in 2019, of the 8 he’s played up to this point, he has an 11 target game and a 13 target game as well), and at the same time, I don’t believe he’s had fewer than 6 targets once all season. Davis on the other hand, over 9 games played this season, the most looks he’s seen is is 7...which he’s done all of once. Otherwise, in 6 of the 9 he’s played - so 2/3’s of the time - he’s seen 5 targets or fewer.

And when you combine the skill set of Samuel, which is one that has the capacity for splash play/huge gainers a lot more so than Davis, with the greater and more consistent weekly volume Davis gets...well you get more production; and to be honest, Samuel’s due for some positive regression there. Because with the amount of looks he’s getting, he’s statistically due to have more of those targets convert into receptions. If he were to start connecting on even as little as 1 or 2 of those targets a game, that could be the difference between 3 for 64 and 5 and 120. Doesn’t take much space with Samuel before it’s off to the races. 

Additionally, Samuel is a playmaker in the red zone too. He’s a touchdown scorer. He has 4 in 2019, on pace for 8...but he could still find the end zone upwards of 10 times. Not saying he will, but the ceiling for that is there. With Corey Davis - although an overall decent TD scorer I suppose - frankly, his ceiling to receive em is average. Plus Tennessee spreads the ball around to more guys. There’s rookie AJ Brown (who looks like the better talent he and Davis, btw), slot guy Adam Humphries, couple TE’s, Dion Lewis, Tamar Sharpe. None of them particularly eat any given week, but they all get nibbles - Davis included. In Carolina it’s DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel. No other wide receivers that they’re actively throwing too. There’s trusty old TE Greg Olsen sometimes in the mix too, but he’s like 40 now and his share has tailed off. 

TL;DR...

Curtis Samuel > Corey Davis


Tell me how you really feel

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I feel like @ GB, Packers should roll and Panthers will have to keep up, which in theory should mean a lot of looks for both Moore and Samuel.

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Or Carolina runs all over green bay's trash run D and controls the clock like the chargers just did

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DJ Moore with Kyle Allen:

55 targets, 79.4 half PPR points

games under 10 points: 2

Rotoworld: WR1/WR2

 

Curtis Samuel with Kyle Allen:

51 targets, 79.3 half PPR points

games under 10 points: 3

Rotoworld: boom or bust WR3

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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4 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Anything to look at this week? Is Lattimore a shadow back, to cover DJ Moore the entire game? Could open up Samuel, no?

Kyle Allen sucks, start at your own risk. He's closer to droppable than startable imo

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4 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

Kyle Allen sucks, start at your own risk. He's closer to droppable than startable imo

I mean he's not that bad. Sure he just had a terrible game but he's been okay rest of season. 

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3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

I mean he's not that bad. Sure he just had a terrible game but he's been okay rest of season. 

 

He has less fantasy points on the season than Samuel himself. That should tell you all you need to know. 

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I think Samuel is better left on the bench, of course unless you have no other options.  Unless he scores a TD, Samuel has given you under 10 PPR points in every game except 1 - against TB (which was with Newton I believe) he got 14.3 points without a TD, but that was on the back of 13 targets.  He's gotten 11 targets in another game (against SF) and every other game has been 8 or less.  So outside of the outlier 13 target game, he either duds, or scores a TD and gives you an OK week.  

Now a game against NO might imply shootout, but I'm not sure Kyle Allen is worth banking on for a shoot out.  The implied point total for Carolina this week is 18.75, which even if we round up to 21 points and assume Carolina scores 3 TDs, I imagine CMC gets at least one of those. That leaves MAYBE 2 TDs for Carolina, and CMC very well gets one if not all 3.  And again, that's assuming Carolina outscores it's implied total.  If we get the Kyle Allen we've seen recently, don't be surprised if Carolina only scores once or twice, and I'm betting CMC gets at least 1 if not both.

I'm not banking on the odds Samuel scores a TD, and as we've seen this year, if he doesn't score a TD, he gives you a dud.

 

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32 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Anything to look at this week? Is Lattimore a shadow back, to cover DJ Moore the entire game? Could open up Samuel, no?

Lattimore should be still out this week. Hamstring injury takes a while for speed guys. 

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