BrianM

Curtis Samuel 2019 Outlook

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On 5/7/2019 at 8:50 PM, Panthers8912 said:

I don’t understand his adp compared to Moore’s other than people (unsurprisingly) don’t watch the panthers and have no idea how to evaluate our guys. CS was the 8th pick in the 2nd round 3 drafts ago. He’s somewhat injury prone but a much better route runner than Moore and easily the best wr on the team rn. Masses just know Moore was a first round pick and think he’s the wr1. Baring an unforeseen increase in route running capabilities, I doubt Moore is the wr1 for us in real life or fantasy. You can be concerned about camvp’s shoulder but even if hes replaced CS is still better than Moore and a steal at his current adp

I listen to a lot of dynasty podcasts and the dynasty community is going absolutely nuts over Moore. I don't get it at all. Either the community is too small and they share a hive mind, or they really are smarter than the average person and see something that I can't. I would much rather take a later round flier on Samuel, or hell, even a guy like Sterling Shepard. I just think the hype is going to drive Moore's cost so high that people will be drafting him at his absolute ceiling. I'm hoping the same doesn't happen for Samuel.

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5 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

I listen to a lot of dynasty podcasts and the dynasty community is going absolutely nuts over Moore. I don't get it at all. Either the community is too small and they share a hive mind, or they really are smarter than the average person and see something that I can't. I would much rather take a later round flier on Samuel, or hell, even a guy like Sterling Shepard. I just think the hype is going to drive Moore's cost so high that people will be drafting him at his absolute ceiling. I'm hoping the same doesn't happen for Samuel.

I agree with this post.  Moore's stock will likely continue to rise in the coming weeks after we get into August but I would rather have Samuel later as he could end up being the most productive Panthers wr when all is said and done.  Samuel has really been flying under the radar because so many people are talking about Moore.

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18 hours ago, mdw5048 said:

He missed the first 4 games of the season with a heart condition

I had missed that (or forgotten), so I checked what that was about:

https://247sports.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/Article/Curtis-Samuel-heart-procedure-missed-time-121457258/

Quote

Dr. David J. Chao, M.D. stated that Samuel's condition was a mere "blip on the screen", and in no way threatened his life or career - or even his season status.

Dr. Chao noted that one of the most common irregularities of the heart is what is called atrial fibrillation, which is when there is an abnormal electrical signal present in the heart. This is usually treated with medication, but players who are left groggy or otherwise unsettled by the medication usually undergo an ablation procedure, which is a minor outpatient cardiac procedure that destroys the source of the abnormal signal. This is accomplished by inserting a small tube into the heart vessels.

 

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Insane how a small tube in the heart is now just a "minor outpatient procedure".  

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4 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Insane how a small tube in the heart is now just a "minor outpatient procedure".  

And ACL tears used to be career enders!  What a world...

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Just now, Fort4242 said:

And ACL tears used to be career enders!  What a world...

 

Oh man, I watched Dan Marino a football life the other day.  He had the Achilles tear, and they were talking about his shoe having a spring in it or some sort of crazy thing to make his foot pop back up.

31:30 mark they talk about it.

 

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

And ACL tears used to be career enders!  What a world...

 

For real. Theres no telling how good boobie miles coulda been 

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11 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

For real. Theres no telling how good boobie miles coulda been 

Talking about boobies, theyr'e also doing some pretty good surgery on those. But I digress.

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On 7/19/2019 at 8:22 AM, mdw5048 said:

 

You are so right. I also don’t see the upside.

A guy who when targeted on the perimeter last season, Panthers QBs had a 125.2 passer rating. That is INSANE. It’s clear he is likely going to be the X received this year with Moore in the slot.

I don’t see the upside in a guy who scored 7 touchdowns on just 47 touches last season!? SEE, HE ONLY HAD 47 TOUCHES!” He missed the first 4 games of the season with a heart condition and Rivera has said on record they took a lot of heat for not playing him more but they had to ease him in.

ALSO, Devin Funchess is gone which opens up 100 targets in that offense. No upside there? He will now be a clear starter and should be on the field for nearly every offensive snap. He only had a 44.1% snap count and still had nearly 500 yards. Increase that by at least 20% in a starters role with a now healthy offseason...

He had 8 games over 10 fantasy points last season in a limited and eased in role. He didn’t play over 40 snaps until week 12!

Also, not seeing the upside on a guy who when he went over 50% in last 6 games of 2018 & scored double digit PPR points in 5 of those 6 games.

Oh, and when him and DJ Moore were on the field together, Samuel was targeted more.

Also, the kid is in the 94th percentile in the league in terms of success against man and press coverage... Success rate of 76.6 % on routes vs man coverage ties for 6th in the NFL. I mean, he’s the fastest 40 time to ever come out of Ohio State (technically tied with Paris Campbell now).

On Matthew Harmon’s reception perception, that route tree is alllll kinda of green. His receiving grade went from 54 to 75 in a year. His route tree went from 4 routes to 10 and he has been sited as running some of the cleaning routes in the league now, some even comparing him to Diggs in terms of release.

From the Charlotte Observer: “I’d expect the Panthers to get the ball in Samuel’s hands as much as possible in space, whether it as a pass-catcher or runner. He’s just as dangerous on an end-around as he is on a go route, and he also has potential as a kick returner. I’m not one to predict fantasy-football stats, but if you’re looking for someone (somewhat) under the radar who will play a major offensive role for a playoff contender, Samuel’s your man.”

 

WR4? Shoot, he’s probably a WR5 at best. I just don’t see the “upside.”

 

 

 

I don't know why you're being sarcastically rude. ADP agrees with me and not you, so my statement wasn't abnormal.

 

Some countering factors on my mind:

 

- Durability concerns. In his young career he's already missed a bunch of games due injuries that aren't flukey. Ankle fracture, back sprain, hamstring sprain, heart condition. You have to weigh his chances of injury against his upside. Non-flukey injuries tend to hamper performance over the course of the year, and may force him out of several games.

 

- Cam doesn't tend to produce WR1s. The best he's ever done was have Benjamin and Olsen finish in that territory in 2014, but the 3rd guy up wasn't fantasy relevant. Other than that year he's never had two receivers put up big numbers. He likes to spread the ball around. McCaffrey and Moore are going to be his most heavily targeted receivers, so what can we reasonably expect out of Samuel? His upside is capped.

 

- Curtis Samuel was not drafted by the current GM. History shows that GMs like to utilize players they have put their own stock into to prove they're good at their job. Even if you think Samuel is better, Moore will be heavily influenced to be more involved.

 

- You seem to put a lot of stock into last season's small sample size. For example, he could've been targeted more because of matchups/game plan, and he has to stay on the field to show us more volume. We can't assume he'll be as good or better than last year with little evidence, and his catch rate of 60% wasn't exactly incredible. In comparison, Moore had a 67% catch rate with more yards per reception.

 

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35 minutes ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

I don't know why you're being sarcastically rude. ADP agrees with me and not you, so my statement wasn't abnormal.

 

Some countering factors on my mind:

 

- Durability concerns. In his young career he's already missed a bunch of games due injuries that aren't flukey. Ankle fracture, back sprain, hamstring sprain, heart condition. You have to weigh his chances of injury against his upside. Non-flukey injuries tend to hamper performance over the course of the year, and may force him out of several games.

 

- Cam doesn't tend to produce WR1s. The best he's ever done was have Benjamin and Olsen finish in that territory in 2014, but the 3rd guy up wasn't fantasy relevant. Other than that year he's never had two receivers put up big numbers. He likes to spread the ball around. McCaffrey and Moore are going to be his most heavily targeted receivers, so what can we reasonably expect out of Samuel? His upside is capped.

 

- Curtis Samuel was not drafted by the current GM. History shows that GMs like to utilize players they have put their own stock into to prove they're good at their job. Even if you think Samuel is better, Moore will be heavily influenced to be more involved.

 

- You seem to put a lot of stock into last season's small sample size. For example, he could've been targeted more because of matchups/game plan, and he has to stay on the field to show us more volume. We can't assume he'll be as good or better than last year with little evidence, and his catch rate of 60% wasn't exactly incredible. In comparison, Moore had a 67% catch rate with more yards per reception.

 

 

Samuel will likely be the Panthers WR I draft this year, if I do end up picking one, just because I think his price tag right now lends itself to more upside.  Moore is going around pick 60 and Samuel is going close to double that.  DJ Moore range you can still get WR's like Jeffery, Landry, Watkins, Mike Williams, etc. who I prefer in that spot.  There's also excellent value at RB still on the board at that point in players like Carson and Cohen.  By the time you get to Samuel territory the RB pool is pretty picked clean and you can start filling up on upside WR's.  

Also just to respond to some of your points:

- To me bone fractures and heart conditions fall under "flukey", not exactly everyday soft tissue injuries.  Normally players that have continued injury issues have ongoing soft tissue injuries that keep popping back up.  I'm not saying he's not injury prone, time will tell, but I don't put much stock in those particular injuries.  And at the price his injury risk is kind of built in.

- At ADP of 113 Samuel doesn't have to be a WR1 to return value, so I wouldn't be too worried about Cam not being able to feed a WR1.  That should be a much bigger red flag for drafting Moore, who is going at a much higher price tag and whose owners have WR1 aspirations.  (However I'd also say I think there is going to be plenty of targets to go around, Funchess is gone, Olsen is a walking injury time bomb, etc)

- GM's don't set lineups or call plays.  Maybe if there was a player with a huge contract that was just signed there would be pressure on the CS to play that player over Samuel, but I don't see why a GM would say "hey, don't play that kid because I never drafted him!"  The team lacks WR talent badly enough they'll be happy with whatever they can get out of him.

- Agreed just projecting based on a small sample size is a dangerous game, but I do find it curious that in that short time frame he produced similarly to Moore, yet is going so much later in drafts.  I wouldn't count on projected or extrapolated numbers, but that does play into my feeling he's a value pick.

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1 hour ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

I don't know why you're being sarcastically rude. ADP agrees with me and not you, so my statement wasn't abnormal.

 

Some countering factors on my mind:

 

- Durability concerns. In his young career he's already missed a bunch of games due injuries that aren't flukey. Ankle fracture, back sprain, hamstring sprain, heart condition. You have to weigh his chances of injury against his upside. Non-flukey injuries tend to hamper performance over the course of the year, and may force him out of several games.

 

- Cam doesn't tend to produce WR1s. The best he's ever done was have Benjamin and Olsen finish in that territory in 2014, but the 3rd guy up wasn't fantasy relevant. Other than that year he's never had two receivers put up big numbers. He likes to spread the ball around. McCaffrey and Moore are going to be his most heavily targeted receivers, so what can we reasonably expect out of Samuel? His upside is capped.

 

- Curtis Samuel was not drafted by the current GM. History shows that GMs like to utilize players they have put their own stock into to prove they're good at their job. Even if you think Samuel is better, Moore will be heavily influenced to be more involved.

 

- You seem to put a lot of stock into last season's small sample size. For example, he could've been targeted more because of matchups/game plan, and he has to stay on the field to show us more volume. We can't assume he'll be as good or better than last year with little evidence, and his catch rate of 60% wasn't exactly incredible. In comparison, Moore had a 67% catch rate with more yards per reception.

 

 

he is drafted so low that it really doesn't matter, he is basically free

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49 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

he is drafted so low that it really doesn't matter, he is basically free

Once the top 36 WRs go off the board he's one of the top spec guys climbing (ADP 120 or so).  Cheap yes but free no.

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I'm wary of investing a pick, even a late one, on any skill position player with a heart condition for obvious reasons.  If Samuel isn't drafted and is a free agent then I would possibly try to add him but that probably won't happen.

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46 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I'm wary of investing a pick, even a late one, on any skill position player with a heart condition for obvious reasons.  If Samuel isn't drafted and is a free agent then I would possibly try to add him but that probably won't happen.

Agreed, assuming you're talking about dynasty. Not to emotion that I'm not convinced that Newton will be able to support more than 2 reliable FF starters, especially with the reports that his accuracy is even more inconsistent than usual after shoulder surgery. Moore and McCaffrey will eat up most of the valuable touches in this offense, while Olsen/Samuel/Thomas split the leftovers and take turns having decent weeks. 

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8 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

I don't know why you're being sarcastically rude. ADP agrees with me and not you, so my statement wasn't abnormal.

 

Some countering factors on my mind:

 

- Durability concerns. In his young career he's already missed a bunch of games due injuries that aren't flukey. Ankle fracture, back sprain, hamstring sprain, heart condition. You have to weigh his chances of injury against his upside. Non-flukey injuries tend to hamper performance over the course of the year, and may force him out of several games.

 

- Cam doesn't tend to produce WR1s. The best he's ever done was have Benjamin and Olsen finish in that territory in 2014, but the 3rd guy up wasn't fantasy relevant. Other than that year he's never had two receivers put up big numbers. He likes to spread the ball around. McCaffrey and Moore are going to be his most heavily targeted receivers, so what can we reasonably expect out of Samuel? His upside is capped.

 

- Curtis Samuel was not drafted by the current GM. History shows that GMs like to utilize players they have put their own stock into to prove they're good at their job. Even if you think Samuel is better, Moore will be heavily influenced to be more involved.

 

- You seem to put a lot of stock into last season's small sample size. For example, he could've been targeted more because of matchups/game plan, and he has to stay on the field to show us more volume. We can't assume he'll be as good or better than last year with little evidence, and his catch rate of 60% wasn't exactly incredible. In comparison, Moore had a 67% catch rate with more yards per reception.

 

 

I was being sarcastic because you posted with NOTHING to back up your statement. Just a lazy reddit like comment, “I don’t see the upside.” 

Thanks for the reply though, a good response. I respect it.

 

Also, I don’t own Samuel or plan on drafting him (due to better WR keepers) so I’m not throwing in personal bias, BUT I can see the upside in drafting him. He can score from anywhere on the field.

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8 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

I don't know why you're being sarcastically rude. ADP agrees with me and not you, so my statement wasn't abnormal.

 

Some countering factors on my mind:

 

- Durability concerns. In his young career he's already missed a bunch of games due injuries that aren't flukey. Ankle fracture, back sprain, hamstring sprain, heart condition. You have to weigh his chances of injury against his upside. Non-flukey injuries tend to hamper performance over the course of the year, and may force him out of several games.

 

- Cam doesn't tend to produce WR1s. The best he's ever done was have Benjamin and Olsen finish in that territory in 2014, but the 3rd guy up wasn't fantasy relevant. Other than that year he's never had two receivers put up big numbers. He likes to spread the ball around. McCaffrey and Moore are going to be his most heavily targeted receivers, so what can we reasonably expect out of Samuel? His upside is capped.

 

- Curtis Samuel was not drafted by the current GM. History shows that GMs like to utilize players they have put their own stock into to prove they're good at their job. Even if you think Samuel is better, Moore will be heavily influenced to be more involved.

 

- You seem to put a lot of stock into last season's small sample size. For example, he could've been targeted more because of matchups/game plan, and he has to stay on the field to show us more volume. We can't assume he'll be as good or better than last year with little evidence, and his catch rate of 60% wasn't exactly incredible. In comparison, Moore had a 67% catch rate with more yards per reception.

 

Is this a joke? Are you suggesting CS won’t see the field bc he was drafted by a different gm? If not, how would the gm have any say on how often cam throws him the ball? He is locked in at the wr1 or 2, and you think there’s some big conspiracy that he won’t get targets bc he was drafted (the 40th ovr pick btw) by a different gm? 

 

Also to say cam hasnt produced a WR  better than KB in 2014 is factually incorrect. Steve smith had 1400 yards with cam in his first year in the league. KB has gone on to be a huge disappointment. Want to name any other of cams WR1s? Is the issue that cam “can’t support a wr1” or that he’s, idk, had awful wrs since Smitty left?

Edited by Panthers8912
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20 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I'm wary of investing a pick, even a late one, on any skill position player with a heart condition for obvious reasons.  If Samuel isn't drafted and is a free agent then I would possibly try to add him but that probably won't happen.

 

 

that doesn't make any sense, if you are filling to pick him up off the FA list then why not just take him with one the last picks, it's the same thing

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Considering getting him at the 6-7 then now. Cats out of the bag and I like him more than most players at that range.

 

Is he still undervalued? The public has not caught up

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43 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Considering getting him at the 6-7 then now. Cats out of the bag and I like him more than most players at that range.

 

Is he still undervalued? The public has not caught up

 

I think in fairly competitive leagues, it's unlikely that he remains undervalued. Guys who are reading up and studying and paying attention are moving him up their draft boards. 

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Sleeperbot spilled the beans on him today. His ADP is gonna skyrocket bc of that

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3 minutes ago, scheibler said:

Sleeperbot spilled the beans on him today. His ADP is gonna skyrocket bc of that

 

Took him at 7.2 in a 12 teamer. Didn't want to miss out and he might even rise further than that.

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4 minutes ago, tdfxman said:

where does he top off do you guys think?

 

That's none of my business 😉

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