BrianM

Curtis Samuel 2019 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Well, we definitely know the problem is not Samuel. On his 44 yard catch Cam underthrew him on what should have, quite honestly, easily been a 75 yard touchdown. 

 

 

Even Cam’s good throws are horrible. There are QBs who would lay that out for Samuel on the 15 yard line for a walk in TD. He is washed. Samuel appears to be a star in the making though, but it looks like people in on him are a year early. Carolina is a darkhorse for a top 3 draft pick if Cam plays like this all year.

Edited by MJJ28

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i watched every play from week 1 and week 2.

week 1 samuel looked open literally every play, didn't receive any targets, and many times was completely ignored- cam settled for check downs to mccaffrey and force fed dj moore

 

week 2 samuel looked open almost every play, newton recognized it and peppered him with targets, BUT THE F$$# COULDNT THROW A FOOTBALL to save his life.

 

ultimately- i have been very impressed by samuel and extremely unimpressed by newton- whom samuel is dependent on to get the ball. for those who watched the game today, we know newton looked AWFUL.

 

im really hoping newton's ankle is still bothering him, because if he could be as competent as hmm.. idk...maybe gardner freaking minshew, samuel will be a stud

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6 minutes ago, MR.T4 said:

i watched every play from week 1 and week 2.

week 1 samuel looked open literally every play, didn't receive any targets, and many times was completely ignored- cam settled for check downs to mccaffrey and force fed dj moore

 

week 2 samuel looked open almost every play, newton recognized it and peppered him with targets, BUT THE F$$# COULDNT THROW A FOOTBALL to save his life.

 

ultimately- i have been very impressed by samuel and extremely unimpressed by newton- whom samuel is dependent on to get the ball. for those who watched the game today, we know newton looked AWFUL.

 

im really hoping newton's ankle is still bothering him, because if he could be as competent as hmm.. idk...maybe gardner freaking minshew, samuel will be a stud

 

Yep, Samuel is a WR1 who will put up good WR3 numbers this season. He is uncoverable in today’s flag football style of offense.

Edited by MJJ28
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Just now, MJJ28 said:

 

Yep, Samuel is a WR1 who will put up good WR3 numbers this season. He is uncoverable in the modern NFL game.

 

are you being facetious?

just my opinion, but the guy seems to get open almost every play, regardless if running a short or long route.

he actually looks like a "wr1" stud who will produce wr3 numbers as a result of an inept quarterback.

if you are being hyperbolic, i actually agree with it. if not, cheers with a grain of salt

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3 minutes ago, MR.T4 said:

 

are you being facetious?

just my opinion, but the guy seems to get open almost every play, regardless if running a short or long route.

he actually looks like a "wr1" stud who will produce wr3 numbers as a result of an inept quarterback.

if you are being hyperbolic, i actually agree with it. if not, cheers with a grain of salt

 

No I am completely serious. He has speed to burn and you can’t touch him. How can you cover a guy with his speed and moves if you can’t put a finger on him? You can’t. He is wide open every single play, and would be a WR1 with a QB that could deliver him the ball, but that’s not going to happen this season, so we are left to imagine what if...

Edited by MJJ28
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Not sure if this is just an ESPN thing, but it looks like they took away his last 9 yard catch. I’m seeing 4 for 82 as his final stat line.

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9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

No I am completely serious. He has speed to burn and you can’t touch him. How can you cover a guy with his speed and moves if you can’t put a finger on him? You can’t. He is wide open every single play, and would be a WR1 with a QB that could deliver him the ball, but that’s not going to happen this season, so we are left to imagine what if...

 

Glad we are seeing the same thing. i focus on him every play and I couldn't believe that the guy is literally open every play- thought it was my bias for drafting him.

 

lets hope that either or all of the following occurs:

A) newton starts eating meat again

B) newton is still nursing an ankle injury and will recover with the extra days to rest

C) newton realizes he is a garbage passer with zero touch, the accuracy of helen keller, and like a former frat star who lives in the glory days of the past, and asks to be benched

Edited by MR.T4

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3 minutes ago, MR.T4 said:

 

Glad we are seeing the same thing. i focus on him every play and I couldn't believe that the guy is literally open every play- thought it was my bias for drafting him.

 

lets hope that either or all of the following occurs:

A) newton starts eating meat again

B) newton is still nursing an ankle injury and will recover with the extra days to rest

C) newton realizes he is a garbage passer with zero touch, the accuracy of helen keller, and living like a frat star in the past, and asks to be benched

 

I only watched the 4th quarter, but he would’ve had 80 yards and a TD alone in that quarter with 30+ different NFL QBs.

The 44 yard grab would’ve been a 75 yard walk in TD with any NFL QB with a functioning arm. 200 yards and 2 TDs was pretty easily within reach, it was crazy.

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I only watched the 4th quarter, but he would’ve had 80 yards and a TD alone in that quarter with 30+ different NFL QBs.

The 44 yard grab would’ve been a 75 yard walk in TD with any NFL QB with a functioning arm. 200 yards and 2 TDs was pretty easily within reach, it was crazy.

 

I swear to god if Cam is able to hit Samuel in stride one time! It was so annoying to see Samuel being seperated with acres of green grass in front of him and Cam understhrows it or throws it into his back.

 

But at least the team noticed that he is able to get open and changed the target volume from week 1. If Cam is able to recover and is able to make constant good throws, oh boy, this could be a gem!

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Positives: 

- Samuel got 13 targets, which was only 1 less than Moore

- He had great routes and separation all night

- Connected on one long one

 

Negatives:

- It took 51 Newton pass attempts to get those 13 targets, which isn't going to happen often.  TB D did a great job of taking away the run game / CMC, forcing Newton to air it out and try to make throws.

- Only caught 5 of them, which was almost completely due to Cam's inability to get the ball to Samuel anywhere in a catchable radius

- Samuel's big play ability looked extremely hampered by Cam not being able to accurately throw a deep ball.  Had one long 44 yard play, and the rest of the completions were much shorter routes where Newton could only be somewhat inaccurate.

 

Overall I think what others have said is accurate - Samuel could be a WR1/2 right now, but he won't reach that ceiling with Newton's limitations and inaccuracy.  I think Cam throwing 50+ times is an outlier, and I also think CMC's lack of involvement / effectiveness is an outlier.  Most weeks you're likely to see 35-40 pass attempts, with 10-12 of those going to CMC.  That likely leaves Samuel with 7-8 targets a game average (barring injuries to others), and if Cam can only hit him on 40-50% of those, the upside will really be capped, unfortunately.

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This dude is ALWAYS open, but all Cam wants to do is throw a slant to DJ Moore for 0yac

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How does everyone feel about his guy with the potential of having a back up qb throwing to him? He was dropped last week and probably going to bid on him. I would have to think he would be getting better quality targets.

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21 minutes ago, purpdrankplaya said:

How does everyone feel about his guy with the potential of having a back up qb throwing to him? He was dropped last week and probably going to bid on him. I would have to think he would be getting better quality targets.

I dont see how it could possibly get any worse than Cam has been. Stock trending upwards for him imo and a quality buy low canidate

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4 minutes ago, JaylenBrownFanclub said:

I dont see how it could possibly get any worse than Cam has been. Stock trending upwards for him imo and a quality buy low canidate

I don't know about that.  Kyle Allen isn't much better and he could be even worse.

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1 minute ago, sjm76 said:

I don't know about that.  Kyle Allen isn't much better and he could be even worse.

Cam has been in a league of his own in terms of inaccurate passes thrown, no one has came close in terms of percentage of uncatchable passes thrown, so bad hes making trubisky and Fitzpatrick look great. Kyle Allen can be the worst qb in the league and still be an improvement over Cam. 

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35 minutes ago, purpdrankplaya said:

How does everyone feel about his guy with the potential of having a back up qb throwing to him? He was dropped last week and probably going to bid on him. I would have to think he would be getting better quality targets.

Not startable, probably even droppable..He's the 4th option.. 

Edited by Sean Tambo
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45 minutes ago, purpdrankplaya said:

How does everyone feel about his guy with the potential of having a back up qb throwing to him? He was dropped last week and probably going to bid on him. I would have to think he would be getting better quality targets.

Last year, the backup QB wasn't too bad in his one game.  Granted it was in week 17 and some backups were playing for the saints.  Samuel had a decent game  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201812300nor.htm

Edited by rocket
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He’s a great catch short and create after the catch guy. it is also documented that he has been good at getting separation throughout his career and backup QBs love throwing to wide open receivers. Can’t say it’s better than Cam but it’s hard to see how it could be worse. 

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If Allen can deliver dimes like this, I'm all in.  

https://www.panthers.com/video/can-t-miss-play-allen-launches-53-yard-td-strike-to-samuel

 

Have to imagine that for however long Cam is injured, teams are going to key McC and dare the Panthers to beat them in the air.  Lots of people are way down on Samuel right now.  I think he can be had pretty cheap (or free in someplace where people rage dropped him).  Good pickup.

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This can't get much worse, he plays 90% of snaps, he is fast dynamic he runs lots of short easy routes should be ok for PPR, solid flex maybe WR2. 

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Not dropping yet.  I'm gonna see how Samuel does with Allen under center before doing anything.

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per PFF:  Only the Dolphins and Bears have had a higher percentage of uncatchable targets this season than the Panthers

 

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Honestly Cam is a bum and I hope Kyle Allen lights it up and steals the starting job from him. 

I know it won't happen but a guy with both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel can dream.

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