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Nola or Snell for a kepper??? WHIR

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Man that's a tough call and could honestly be decided by a coin flip. That being said here's some comparison the metrics I like to look at when evaluating a pitcher.  


Snell is more of a swing and miss guy as evidenced by his higher K-BB% and SwStr% than Nola, but don't be fooled into thinking Nola isn't becoming more of a K threat than the average fan thinks. Snell's numbers in those respective metrics are 22.4% (8th best) and 15.1% (4th best) while Nola's are 20% (12th best) and 12.4% (12th best). They also both finished among the top 20 SPs for O-Swing% getting guys to chase stuff to the tune of 33% a piece. Even though Snell has a higher K-BB% he does also have a higher BB% than Nola. Snell finished last year with  BB% of 9.1% while Nola was at 7%. 

Now even though Nola has been improving on his K ratios and swing and miss stuff he still pitches to contact more than Snell does. Nola had a contact% of 73.7% while Snell's was 66.6%. It makes sense that Snell is better in this area given his higher K ratios. Even though Nola allows a lot more contact than Snell does he has a much higher GB% and soft contact rate than Snell does. Nola finished 6th among SPs with 22.3% Soft% while Snell finished 34th with a Soft% of 18.1%. Nola also had the 3rd best GB%, 50.6%, while Snell finished with an impressive 44.7%, which was good enough to be 26th best in the league. 

One thing to note about Snell is that, even though he has a higher contact rate with fewer ground balls and harder contact than Nola, he still finished 16th in the league in HR/FB just behind Nola himself with 10.7% and 10.6% respectively.

When it comes to ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA here's how the two of them finished. 

ERA - Snell 2nd (1.89) / Nola 4th (2.37)

FIP -  Snell 8th (2.95) / Nola 10th (3.01)

xFIP - Snell 11th (3.16) / Nola 12th (3.21)

SIERRA - Snell 10th (3.30) / Nola 12th (3.40)

 

If you're strictly going by the numbers above I would say Snell is your guy. However, some people feel Snell is a little bit more of a risk due to his higher BB% than Nola as well as his smaller sample size of elite level success. Nola has been one of the better pitchers in the league for the last couple years and continues to show more improvement in his K rates and swing and miss stuff while also maintaining his elite GB%. Snell had one of the best years any SP has had in the history of the game last year but he has only shown that he's a top tier SP for one season. 

 

In conclusion I think I would go with Snell by a slight margin but you really cannot go wrong at all with either guy. I think both could easily finish as top 5 SPs this year. 

 

 

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Nola in a heart beat.  And that is not a shot or disparagement against Snell in the least.

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@BostonCajun went above and beyond the call of duty here. Fantastic post for the help section. 

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Really close as the others have said. I think I lean toward Nola here just because he pitches in the NL. 

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Nola by quite a bit.  Pitches in NL and now Phillies signed Harper.  Snell still has to deal with Boston and Yankees a lot.  Great pitcher, but I like Nola a little bit more here.

 

 

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On 3/1/2019 at 9:40 AM, BostonCajun said:

Man that's a tough call and could honestly be decided by a coin flip. That being said here's some comparison the metrics I like to look at when evaluating a pitcher.  


Snell is more of a swing and miss guy as evidenced by his higher K-BB% and SwStr% than Nola, but don't be fooled into thinking Nola isn't becoming more of a K threat than the average fan thinks. Snell's numbers in those respective metrics are 22.4% (8th best) and 15.1% (4th best) while Nola's are 20% (12th best) and 12.4% (12th best). They also both finished among the top 20 SPs for O-Swing% getting guys to chase stuff to the tune of 33% a piece. Even though Snell has a higher K-BB% he does also have a higher BB% than Nola. Snell finished last year with  BB% of 9.1% while Nola was at 7%. 

Now even though Nola has been improving on his K ratios and swing and miss stuff he still pitches to contact more than Snell does. Nola had a contact% of 73.7% while Snell's was 66.6%. It makes sense that Snell is better in this area given his higher K ratios. Even though Nola allows a lot more contact than Snell does he has a much higher GB% and soft contact rate than Snell does. Nola finished 6th among SPs with 22.3% Soft% while Snell finished 34th with a Soft% of 18.1%. Nola also had the 3rd best GB%, 50.6%, while Snell finished with an impressive 44.7%, which was good enough to be 26th best in the league. 

One thing to note about Snell is that, even though he has a higher contact rate with fewer ground balls and harder contact than Nola, he still finished 16th in the league in HR/FB just behind Nola himself with 10.7% and 10.6% respectively.

When it comes to ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA here's how the two of them finished. 

ERA - Snell 2nd (1.89) / Nola 4th (2.37)

FIP -  Snell 8th (2.95) / Nola 10th (3.01)

xFIP - Snell 11th (3.16) / Nola 12th (3.21)

SIERRA - Snell 10th (3.30) / Nola 12th (3.40)

 

If you're strictly going by the numbers above I would say Snell is your guy. However, some people feel Snell is a little bit more of a risk due to his higher BB% than Nola as well as his smaller sample size of elite level success. Nola has been one of the better pitchers in the league for the last couple years and continues to show more improvement in his K rates and swing and miss stuff while also maintaining his elite GB%. Snell had one of the best years any SP has had in the history of the game last year but he has only shown that he's a top tier SP for one season. 

 

In conclusion I think I would go with Snell by a slight margin but you really cannot go wrong at all with either guy. I think both could easily finish as top 5 SPs this year. 

 

 

 

I agree that Snell is slightly better. However Snell pitches in the AL East and Nola in the NL East. THAT is a big difference. On the other hand, with the NL you might lose out on some QS or Ws if a pitcher gets taken out for a batter.

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