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Eduardo Rodriguez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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what to expect from ERod in 2019?

 

he has increased his K% the last 3 seasons, 8.41, 9.83, 10.13.

he has decreased his BB% the last 3 seasons, 3.36, 3.28, 3.12.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P

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Profile: I think we all want Eduardo Rodriguez to have that magical season. Injuries have held the soon-to-be 26-year-old southpaw from eclipsing 25 starts, but there's more to his lack of excellence than a disrupted throwing program. Rodriguez's best offering a fantastic changeup that induces batters to chase the slow ball out of the zone over 45% of the time, using his heater up in the zone to create a large discrepancy in movement, location, and velocity between the two pitches. However, Rodriguez elects to feature his changeup off the plate dramatically often (just 23% zone rate last year!), which means he needs a solid third option to earn strikes. Is that his slider/cutter? During his most successful starts, we see the bender stealing strikes often, though it's far from a strong offering on its own. If Rodriguez is to take that leap across 30+ starts, he will need this pitch to comfortably find the zone and allow his changeup to become the deadly weapon in his back pocket. Watch out for Rodriguez's cutter early in 2019 as it could dictate the entire year's performance. (Nick Pollack)

The Quick Opinion: Rodriguez has a fantastic changeup, and he needs his cutter/slider to be the strong pitch inside the zone help his fastball. The path is there to reach his ceiling, it comes down to that third pitch.

 

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I've always been a huge ERod fan, and I am again this year. If he can only stay healthy and get those elusive 30 starts, he's going to really become nice fantasy option. Just my own hunch...I think he finally stays healthy this year. 

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FWIW he's been working closely with Sale on his slider to make it more of an out pitch for him. I too have always liked ERod a bunch and this year I was really upset to have missed out on him. I think he's in for a good season especially considering his consensus adp of 152.

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I feel like people talk about this guy like he hasn't already broken out. His K% and FIP are in the Clevinger, Berrios, Taillon, Archer tier and he's only 25 years old. He's actually younger than hype god Luis Castillo and has way better numbers. 

His new slider won't make him good, he's already good. It could make him an ace. 

Edited by dod959
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Rodriguez's worst start last season was in September facing the Yankees where he gave up 5 ER and had 7 walks. that was September 20th. his previous start before that was  September 13th. was there a reason he had 7 days between starts? maybe that is why he had a bad game?

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9546/gamelog

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On 3/5/2019 at 1:46 PM, dod959 said:

I feel like people talk about this guy like he hasn't already broken out. His K% and FIP are in the Clevinger, Berrios, Taillon, Archer tier and he's only 25 years old. He's actually younger than hype god Luis Castillo and has way better numbers. 

His new slider won't make him good, he's already good. It could make him an ace. 

Well, he hasn't really "broken out". I'm a huge E-Rod fan, but he's never had a sub 3.50 ERA, nor has he even thrown 150 innings. 

That being said, I think he can truly break out this year, healthy permitted and if he stays focused.

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Big gains last year. Think he easily outproduces his current draft value if he stays healthy. 

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On 3/20/2019 at 2:14 PM, hangin n wangin said:

Well, he hasn't really "broken out". I'm a huge E-Rod fan, but he's never had a sub 3.50 ERA, nor has he even thrown 150 innings. 

That being said, I think he can truly break out this year, healthy permitted and if he stays focused.

Very few even good pitchers get under 3.50 in the AL (aka appox 2.50 in the NL) let alone in the AL East.  He is good but not anywhere Chris Sale good.  I'll happily take anything under 4.00 and a healthy knee finally and run with it.

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The biggest thing the Red Sox have been trying to teach ERod is to work quicker and more efficiently so he can get deeper into games.  He has acknowledged this as his biggest flaw and his next step in his progression.  If he starts attacking the strike zone a little more I could see him finally breaking 150 innings, maybe in the 175-180 range.  He has improved his era, fip, whip, bb/9 and kk/9 3 years in a row and if he again shows similar gains and “overachieves” to get to 175 innings we’re looking at a 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 175 ip, 200k and 16+ wins.  That’s borderline ace numbers.

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E-hole

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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1 minute ago, 2ndCitySox said:

E-hole

He is what he is. Every now and then he'll pitch a gem. That puts him in common with every minor league pitcher that ever lived. 

His 15 minutes are up AFAIC.

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I drank the kool aid, and yes, people brought up interesting points in this thread.  But this can’t happen.  The Mariners suck balls.  

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8 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

I drank the kool aid, and yes, people brought up interesting points in this thread.  But this can’t happen.  The Mariners suck balls.  

 

Except they haven't in the early going. They lit up Sale, Eovaldi, and now EdRod, and the M's are 4-1 and have scored 38 runs. 

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11 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

I drank the kool aid, and yes, people brought up interesting points in this thread.  But this can’t happen.  The Mariners suck balls.  

Offensively they aren't bad at all. Haniger, Santana, Smith, Encarnacion, Gordon... On top of that Beckham is on a early season hot streak. 

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OK well I've heard a lot about how powerful the M's offense is. Meanwhile ERod - who was destroyed by the M's - pitches in the AL East. 

From what it sounds like here the M's would WIN the AL East - so it's all good.

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Seattle has a bottom 20% offense, and the game took place in a pitcher’s paradise.  And his fangraphs page didn’t quite pass the smell test.  It was basically just a rotoworld forum pick.  

Sale has a hall of fame track record so we’re talking about an obvious anomaly.  Pointing to that and saying “But look what happened to Sale!” doesn’t really do much for me.  

I’m in this for the long haul, I just hope it wasn’t a boneheaded pick.

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This guy pitches scared.  Every freaking pitch is outside....outside fastball,outside change up.

I don't understand the game calling.  

Its simple   when You keep throwing outside so much, the hitters just keep looking outside. 

Dude throws outside so much that the hitters recognize  right away when the pitch is in and react , and crush it like tonight.

The talent is there, but damn MIX IT UP.  He should study some old Tom glavine tapes, tom wasn't overpowering like Erod, but he mixed things up.

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7 hours ago, Elviplatinum said:

This guy pitches scared.  Every freaking pitch is outside....outside fastball,outside change up.

I don't understand the game calling.  

Its simple   when You keep throwing outside so much, the hitters just keep looking outside. 

Dude throws outside so much that the hitters recognize  right away when the pitch is in and react , and crush it like tonight.

The talent is there, but damn MIX IT UP.  He should study some old Tom glavine tapes, tom wasn't overpowering like Erod, but he mixed things up.

Exactly this. That one sequence to Tom friggin Murphy where he threw him 4 balls in a row a mile outside the plate was MADDENING.  Then he swears into his glove and proceeds to throw 2 more outside changes to the next batter.

Maddening start. Not much positivity to take away here 

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8 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Seattle has a bottom 20% offense, and the game took place in a pitcher’s paradise.  And his fangraphs page didn’t quite pass the smell test.  It was basically just a rotoworld forum pick.  

Sale has a hall of fame track record so we’re talking about an obvious anomaly.  Pointing to that and saying “But look what happened to Sale!” doesn’t really do much for me.  

I’m in this for the long haul, I just hope it wasn’t a boneheaded pick.

 

I'm definitely not comparing Sale to ERod. My point in saying that was to disagree with your point about the Mariners having a bad offense. And maybe by year's end they will. But, through the first five games, they haven't. They've been hitting and scoring runs, whether it was off a nervous ERod, a retread in Fiers, or a stud HOF in Sale. They've been hitting everyone thus far...in part because of Beckham's and Santana's ridiculous starts to their seasons. 

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15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I'm definitely not comparing Sale to ERod. My point in saying that was to disagree with your point about the Mariners having a bad offense. And maybe by year's end they will. But, through the first five games, they haven't. They've been hitting and scoring runs, whether it was off a nervous ERod, a retread in Fiers, or a stud HOF in Sale. They've been hitting everyone thus far...in part because of Beckham's and Santana's ridiculous starts to their seasons. 

 

HOF? Eh. 

 

I wouldn't change my opinion on ERod based on one game. No doubt. But I wouldn't be heeping praise on the Mariners either. And you can see a well pitched ball game regardless of the offense. I didn't watch this start closely, but this didn't seem like one. 

 

My problem with ERod is I simply feel like, despite K/BB numbers to the contrary, that he really hasn't improved at all in like 2 years. I was a fan two years ago, and have followed him closely, and while many will say things to the contrary and while his K/BB sticks out more and more, I simply feel like, whether it be injury or otherwise, he's still the same guy. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

HOF? Eh. 

 

I wouldn't change my opinion on ERod based on one game. No doubt. But I wouldn't be heeping praise on the Mariners either. And you can see a well pitched ball game regardless of the offense. I didn't watch this start closely, but this didn't seem like one. 

 

My problem with ERod is I simply feel like, despite K/BB numbers to the contrary, that he really hasn't improved at all in like 2 years. I was a fan two years ago, and have followed him closely, and while many will say things to the contrary and while his K/BB sticks out more and more, I simply feel like, whether it be injury or otherwise, he's still the same guy. 

 

Wasn't heaping praise on the Mariners. Simply stated the fact that they have hit the ball well through five games, no matter who the SP was. And of course you can see a well-pitched ball game no matter who the offense is...never said anything to the contrary. Maybe through five games, the M's have yet to see a well-pitched game from an opposing SP. I haven't been able to watch their games to know. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

 

Wasn't heaping praise on the Mariners. Simply stated the fact that they have hit the ball well through five games, no matter who the SP was. And of course you can see a well-pitched ball game no matter who the offense is...never said anything to the contrary. Maybe through five games, the M's have yet to see a well-pitched game from an opposing SP. I haven't been able to watch their games to know. 

 

Nah I get what you’re saying about the Ms I just don’t think it matters here. Eduardo got hit because he missed spots and failed to execute by eye, opponent be damned.

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I'm definitely not comparing Sale to ERod. My point in saying that was to disagree with your point about the Mariners having a bad offense. And maybe by year's end they will. But, through the first five games, they haven't. They've been hitting and scoring runs, whether it was off a nervous ERod, a retread in Fiers, or a stud HOF in Sale. They've been hitting everyone thus far...in part because of Beckham's and Santana's ridiculous starts to their seasons. 

 

Fair enough, and maybe Seattle won’t finish as a bottom 6 or 8 offense when all is said and done.  

I will hope for the best going forward in the case of Rodriguez.  

Tao, Sale would be the ace on the all-time White Sox team.  Maybe that’s more of an indictment on the White Sox, but he’s definitely an HOF level pitcher.

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10 hours ago, Elviplatinum said:

This guy pitches scared.  Every freaking pitch is outside....outside fastball,outside change up.

I don't understand the game calling.  

Its simple   when You keep throwing outside so much, the hitters just keep looking outside. 

Dude throws outside so much that the hitters recognize  right away when the pitch is in and react , and crush it like tonight.

The talent is there, but damn MIX IT UP.  He should study some old Tom glavine tapes, tom wasn't overpowering like Erod, but he mixed things up.

He should roll a 20 sided die before every pitch to determine what he should do. 

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2 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

Fair enough, and maybe Seattle won’t finish as a bottom 6 or 8 offense when all is said and done.  

I will hope for the best going forward in the case of Rodriguez.  

Tao, Sale would be the ace on the all-time White Sox team.  Maybe that’s more of an indictment on the White Sox, but he’s definitely an HOF level pitcher.

 

Weird place to have the argument, but Sale doesn’t have the sample size to be a HOFer IMo. If you’re going to be a HOF in so few years with so few IP, you have to be like Koufax to be a consideration. 

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