turner46

Jacob deGrom 2019 Outlook

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Last season Jacob deGrom had the best ERA in the majors at 1.70 while also having the best FIP at 1.99 and XFIP at 2.60 while his SIERA was 3rd best at 2.78 among qualified pitchers. He was also 4th in K's and 5th in K/9. He was 3rd in WHIP, 2nd if you only count those with 162 IP or more. He also had the best soft hit% and 3rd best hard hit%. His 10 wins were the only thing lacking in a 5x5 line but the Mets should be better this year. In closing I know it is a short sample but to my knowledge deGrom's career numbers with short hair are the ones I mentioned above and I just seen him this spring and his hair is still short so I'm buying as SP2 and in the neighborhood of 8th overall.

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It's gotta be the hair

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He only had 10 wins last season, but had 15 the year before (if I remember correctly). And I agree that the Mets will be better. But I’m having a hard time putting him ahead of some of the other pitchers, I’ve seen him ranked as high as the #2 SP. But im pretty sure I’d rather have Sale, Kluber, and Verlander before him. Maybe even Nola. I don’t know.....tough call on i where to rank him.

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16 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

He only had 10 wins last season, but had 15 the year before (if I remember correctly). And I agree that the Mets will be better. But I’m having a hard time putting him ahead of some of the other pitchers, I’ve seen him ranked as high as the #2 SP. But im pretty sure I’d rather have Sale, Kluber, and Verlander before him. Maybe even Nola. I don’t know.....tough call on i where to rank him.

 

He's 2 for me right now, Sale pitches today for the first time this spring and that may or may not bump him to 3 for me. In your situation based on your rankings it's clearly a pass for best hitter available and then hope to nab one of the other P's you mentioned in the 2nd. For me after the top 6 hitters and Max I currently value the next bunch of hitters very similar so I go with my pitcher first and then hitter in round 2 should I pick 8th or lower.

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Great summary from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:

Profile: The 30-year-old deGrom dominated his opponents on the way to winning the NL Cy Young award. His 2019 value is dependent on how much he regresses from his 0.91 WHIP and 1.70 ERA. Many of his skills seem stable. His 11.1 K/9 bumped up but it was led velocity increase with all his pitches. The velocity bump helped his slider go from a 12% SwStr% to 18% SwStr%. Also, he threw his crappy sinker (5% SwStr%) less (17% to 9%). Also, his 1.9 BB/9 wasn’t out of line with a career 2.2 BB/9. The forces behind the low ERA and WHIP were his 0.4 HR/9 and .281 BABIP. His pitches generate weak contact with a high flyball four-seamer (32% GB%) while his slider, change, and sinker have groundball rates over 53%. His home run rate is likely to double to around 0.8 which his career mark. Nothing but an unexpected injury is going to stand in his way of a sub-3 ERA season with about 250 strikeouts. 

 

With all due respect to Chris Sale, he's easily the #2 starting pitcher on my board. I have enough conerns about Sale's shoulder injury recurring again this year. Win totals are a bit fluky and I can just as easily see deGrom hitting 20 wins this year. He's a stud and he's getting better and better. This is an improved Mets team with an improved bullpen.

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Interesting velocity trend: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10954&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

Not suggesting he's doing anything against the rules, I'm just fascinated by guys who add velocity as they age and have a ton of innings under their belt.

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31 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Great summary from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:

Profile: The 30-year-old deGrom dominated his opponents on the way to winning the NL Cy Young award. His 2019 value is dependent on how much he regresses from his 0.91 WHIP and 1.70 ERA. Many of his skills seem stable. His 11.1 K/9 bumped up but it was led velocity increase with all his pitches. The velocity bump helped his slider go from a 12% SwStr% to 18% SwStr%. Also, he threw his crappy sinker (5% SwStr%) less (17% to 9%). Also, his 1.9 BB/9 wasn’t out of line with a career 2.2 BB/9. The forces behind the low ERA and WHIP were his 0.4 HR/9 and .281 BABIP. His pitches generate weak contact with a high flyball four-seamer (32% GB%) while his slider, change, and sinker have groundball rates over 53%. His home run rate is likely to double to around 0.8 which his career mark. Nothing but an unexpected injury is going to stand in his way of a sub-3 ERA season with about 250 strikeouts. 

 

With all due respect to Chris Sale, he's easily the #2 starting pitcher on my board. I have enough conerns about Sale's shoulder injury recurring again this year. Win totals are a bit fluky and I can just as easily see deGrom hitting 20 wins this year. He's a stud and he's getting better and better. This is an improved Mets team with an improved bullpen.

Who's #1?

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Mets got better but so did everyone in the NL East outside the Marlins. He'll face some pretty tough lineups this year and the infamous Mets injury bug is already starting the how its face. Still I can see either side of the argument between he and Sale but I can't see how he could drop below #3.  Guy's a stud.

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5 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Mets got better but so did the Braves and Phillies. He'll face some pretty tough lineups this year and the infamous Mets injury bug is already starting to show its face. Still I can see either side of the argument between he and Sale but I can't see how he could drop below #3.  Guy's a stud.

FTFY

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16 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Who's #1?

 

Max Scherzer

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

FTFY

 

Fair enough, but I don't think the Nats took much of a step back really. Pitching arguably got better with Corbin and some RP moves.  Losing Harper and Murphy is rough but having Robles and Dozier to step in isn't too bad.  I thought Adams/Gomes/Suzuki were solid additions too, and don't forget what a healthy Eaton can do.  Either way deGrom is going to play in what should be one of the best divisions in all of baseball.

Edited by Baur10
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25 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Who's #1?

Max

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2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Fair enough, but I don't think the Nats took much of a step back really. Pitching arguably got better with Corbin and some BP moves.  Losing Harper and Murphy is rough but having Robles and Dozier to step in isn't too bad.  I thought Adams/Gomes/Suzuki were solid additions too, and don't forget what a healthy Eaton can do.  Either way deGrom is going to play in what should be one of the best divisions in all of baseball.

Agree. It's one of, if not the toughest division(s) still.

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Call me crazy but I'd take deGrom is the 1st pitcher off the board.  He's THAT good.

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26 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Fair enough, but I don't think the Nats took much of a step back really. Pitching arguably got better with Corbin and some RP moves.  Losing Harper and Murphy is rough but having Robles and Dozier to step in isn't too bad.  I thought Adams/Gomes/Suzuki were solid additions too, and don't forget what a healthy Eaton can do.  Either way deGrom is going to play in what should be one of the best divisions in all of baseball.

Isn't too bad? Nats arent gonna even sniff the wildcard. 

 

That division is pitching tough, not lineup tough. Phil's and Braves have some nice lineups.

 

AL beast will always be the toughest division to pitch in, fantasy wise.

 

Furthermore, the NL central is way tougher to pitch in. The only team that doesn't have a juggernaut of an offense is the pirates.

 

You can't be serious trying to say that you should consider lowering degrom because the division. The Mets might sneak into the playoffs themselves with the additions of cano and Diaz as well as a few more.

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As good as he is he will be facing the Nats, Phils, and Braves A LOT.

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

 

He's 2 for me right now, Sale pitches today for the first time this spring and that may or may not bump him to 3 for me. In your situation based on your rankings it's clearly a pass for best hitter available and then hope to nab one of the other P's you mentioned in the 2nd. For me after the top 6 hitters and Max I currently value the next bunch of hitters very similar so I go with my pitcher first and then hitter in round 2 should I pick 8th or lower.

I pick 7th. Total points league and pitchers are huge with 10pts per win, 1 pt per inning, 1 pt per K, but also -5 per loss, -1 per run, -1 per walk. I usually wait on pitching, but looking at taking one in the first this year. Just depends on who's there.There's a good chance the top 5 pitchers will go in the 1st or early 2nd. 

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2 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Isn't too bad? Nats arent gonna even sniff the wildcard. 

 

That division is pitching tough, not lineup tough. Phil's and Braves have some nice lineups.

 

AL beast will always be the toughest division to pitch in, fantasy wise.

 

Furthermore, the NL central is way tougher to pitch in. The only team that doesn't have a juggernaut of an offense is the pirates.

 

 You can't be serious trying to say that you should consider lowering degrom because the division. The Mets might sneak into the playoffs themselves with the additions of cano and Diaz as well as a few more.

 

I said I have him as the #2 overall personally and couldn't see anyone putting him lower than #3.  Where exactly are you getting I'm lowering him?

People were saying his win total should go up because the Mets got better this offseason.  I'm just pointing out that their primary rivals did as well. 

While I wouldn't go out and say that the NL East is hands down the best division in baseball given how many new players are there now, I don't think it's as black and white as you're making it out to be. In the AL East Yankees and Sox are elite, the Rays are solid and underrated, but the Jays and Orioles are hot garbage.  The NL Central outside the Pirates is great but again I don't think they're "way" better than the East by any means. 

Doesn't mean I'm fading the guy. Just saying I wouldn't be surprised if deGrom wins 20 games and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins 10 either.

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I'm talking about pitching wise. Not standings wise. The toughest division to pitch in is the AL East. The best division in baseball is easily the NL central. The Brewers won the division last year. The Cubs have a healthy Bryant, a healthy Darvish, and possibly a humbled Contreras. The Cards added Goldy and Miller. Even the Reds added Puig, and get a healthy Winker. Along with some decent pitcher additions. The pirates aren't even a bad team but they're destined for a 5th place finish. 

 

I just drafted Degrom 17TH overall and couldn't be happier. The Mets have 3 cy young candidates with a very strong pen. The lineup could be better, but Nimmo, Conforto, and cano isn't a bad place to be in.

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There was talk early in ST about an innings limit. Not explicitly.  But Jake inferred he's not going to go all out and pitch a career high in innings under his current contract.

 

Jake is terrified about getting Kuechel'ed and missing his monster payday.

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19 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

There was talk early in ST about an innings limit. Not explicitly.  But Jake inferred he's not going to go all out and pitch a career high in innings under his current contract.

 

Jake is terrified about getting Kuechel'ed and missing his monster payday.

He also had a front row seat to watch Matt Harvey go from possibly getting a $200 million contract someday to having to settle for a 1 year, $11 million payday in what is supposed to be his prime earning spot.

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52 minutes ago, meh2 said:

He also had a front row seat to watch Matt Harvey go from possibly getting a $200 million contract someday to having to settle for a 1 year, $11 million payday in what is supposed to be his prime earning spot.

 

True. I didn’t want to go there because that’s the disaster scenario.

 

I was thinking more Kuechel and Jake Arrieta—two pitchers who, like deGrom, were Cy Young winners at young ages but hit free agency at the wrong time and didn’t make the kind of money they thought they would.

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In my stars-n-scrubs roto build I've been choosing deGrom over Chris sale as my SP2 (my SP1 is Max). 

I'm really hoping for the best here... all of these damn starting pitchers have warts. 

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

In my stars-n-scrubs roto build I've been choosing deGrom over Chris sale as my SP2 (my SP1 is Max). 

I'm really hoping for the best here... all of these damn starting pitchers have warts. 

I'm choosing DeGrom over Sale every day of the week. Sale is a ticking time bomb

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1 minute ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

I'm choosing DeGrom over Sale every day of the week. Sale is a ticking time bomb

Yup, I think Sale is the more... competent pitcher (not sure of that wording)... for example, I feel safe that if I could guarantee 100% health for both that Sale would be a top 3 starter due to his track record compared to deGrom's... but with all of the injury news and IP limits on Sale I decided to take deGrom over him. 

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