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Martin Perez 2019 Outlook

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Quote

I'm buying this guy until he proves me wrong.

 

Does "proof" mean you plan to wait for 6 years of complete garbage like he was prior to this season?

Edited by Fiveohnine

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He gets to face the Tigers, Indians, Royals and White Sox for the majority of his starts.  All four of them are in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored. I'm buying him where I can.

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48 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Does "proof" mean you plan to wait for 6 years of complete garbage like he was prior to this season?

I’ve been monitoring Perez since spring when the reports of increased velo and a cutter first started appearing. I feel comfortable in saying that I don’t think he’s going to transform back into the old Perez, but I have no problems selling either if you can get something of value in return. I doubt you’d be able to find many buyers though  since there is rarely a market for these types of players. I see this new version of him  as a 3.75-4.00era guy going forward with a 8.5-8.75k/9. Considering that plays in my leagues I’m going to keep trotting him out there. If that doesn’t then I’d be aggressive in trying to deal him.

Edited by meh2
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7 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Does "proof" mean you plan to wait for 6 years of complete garbage like he was prior to this season?

 

Nope. But when a pitcher gains velocity and has a new pitch that is effectively befuddling hitters, I'll hold until I see that they've figured him out.  He's helping in my league and that's what matters.

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When you hear he's beeing mentored by Johan you take notice. Only 4 dongs given up so far, strong K's and only 2 4BB+ outings so they havent got out of control. Needs to cut down still but I'm liking the new Perez I'm seein.

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On 5/13/2019 at 11:47 AM, Fiveohnine said:

 

Does "proof" mean you plan to wait for 6 years of complete garbage like he was prior to this season?

Few are going to pay something of value for Perez because of the aforementioned six years.

But it's also not crazy to expect a strong year will continue, in the face of the changes he made. 

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:
  1. this guy a hold? looks like hes got mil next start

Milwaukee looks like a sit and see type of start.  Despite reasonnable numbers,he hasnt looked great the last 3.  In a 12, i think hes definately more than a streamer for now.

Edited by Cesare13
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2.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for the season. one of them two will be adjusted accordingly if not both.

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Perez not starting today, will start on Thursday in TB.

 

 

 

I also see this article on Perez..

https://thescorecrow.com/2019/05/28/deep-dive-martin-perez/

Quote

After signing a 1yr $3.5 MIL in the offseason with the Minnesota Twins, Martin Perez is having a career resurgence year in 2019. In 2019, Perez has tossed 58 IP with a 2.95 ERA, 7.9 H9, 0.8 HR9, 4.0 BB9, 8.7 SO9, and 1.32 WHIP.

What’s led to Perez resurgence this season is his Cutter. He throws it 33% of the time, has a BAA of .119, an SLG of .167 and an ISO (isolated power) of .048. It’s been a huge part of his swing and miss game in 2019. The Cutter has a swing% of 54%, 28.4% of whiffs per swing, and a 15.4% whiff%. He excels at getting hitters to hit it on the ground as well with a 45.6% ground-balls in play, a 19.3% of fly balls in play, and 24.5% of line drives per balls in play.

The lefty simply doesn’t give up hard-hit balls either. He has an 86.0 MPH Exit Velocity on his balls in play and a 29.0% of Hard Hit balls which are the lowest of his career. He’s excelled at throwing first-pitch strikes as well this season at a 66.1% F-Strike%, and he has a 10.9% swing strike% which are both the highest of his career. Perez has been excellent at not allowing a lot of contact as he gets a 76.6% of contact made when swinging at pitches which is the lowest mark of his career. He gets the hitters to also swing at bad pitches getting a 32.6% of swings outside the strike zone and only a 66.3% of contact made when swinging at them.

He’s likely to maintain his low 3s era for the rest of the season I believe. His peripherals indicate it’s somewhat sustainable with a 3.69 FIP (fielder independent pitching), 4.35 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA(skill-interactive era), 65 ERA-, and 81 FIP- (where 100 is average and lower is better). He also has an XBA of .215, XSLG of .340 and a .298 WOBA (weighted on-base average).

This breakout season for Martin Perez will lead him to an All-Star selection I believe, and Perez will be a huge impact for the Minnesota Twins this season as they are on the rise to steal the AL Central from the Cleveland Indians.

 

 

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So is the bloom coming off the rose, or has he just hit a bump in the road?

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

So is the bloom coming off the rose, or has he just hit a bump in the road?

 

Velocity is down slightly from the 96 he was at earlier this year.   I've noticed they've given him more time between starts lately. 

I'm personally holding in a couple of deep leagues for another look but he won't be in my lineups. 

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Turned back into a pumpkin. Hasn’t looked good in his last several stats.  It was fun while it lasted and I hoped he would continue his breakout from earlier this season. But killing my ratios too many times.

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His Home/Away splits are starting to show. I sat him today and it paid off. I think if you keep him and use him for home starts...he might still pay off? 

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On 5/13/2019 at 12:31 PM, Fiveohnine said:

I assume people are trying to sell this guy before he goes back to being Martin Perez. Right?

 

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Has anyone heard anything about him skipping a start? Yahoo nor MLB.com shows him starting at least until the 5th. After that MIN starters are TBD. He last pitched 6/27.. anyone heard anything?

Thorpe was called up yesterday for spot start? This may have something to do with it?

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On 6/27/2019 at 8:13 AM, Fiveohnine said:

I assume people are trying to sell this guy before he goes back to being Martin Perez. Right?

 

He's been far better than Perez has been historically, even during his cold stretch. Also pitches with a top 3 offense at his back. 

I don't think he's a must own or anything, but the 'do you need six years of him being garbage again?' stuff is silly when the guy is obviously much improved. 

Edited by rcarena
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 His velocity is back down at 92 vs the 96 earlier this year. 

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 His velocity is back down at 92 vs the 96 earlier this year. 

 

It was back up last game. 95 on the four seam. 

He's actually 31st in xWOBA at .293, right behind Boyd. Top 5% in the league in exit velo and hard hit. He just doesn't have a great breaking ball to limit contact. 

I actually like him a bit for dynasty. He's only 28 years old and MIN's pitching coach is a stud. Perez could pick up a breaking ball sometime soon and become more intriguing. For this year it's basically cutter and change-up. Not a ton of Ks with that. 

Edited by dod959
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2 hours ago, rcarena said:

He's been far better than Perez has been historically, even during his cold stretch. Also pitches with a top 3 offense at his back. 

I don't think he's a must own or anything, but the 'do you need six years of him being garbage again?' stuff is silly when the guy is obviously much improved. 

 

My sell now post you quoted was from back in May, when he had a 3.15 ERA. There is no question that his value back then was much higher than it is now and anyone who actually did sell him instead of eating his 5.08 ERA for June most certainly profited. It's silly to suggest otherwise.

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