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Adrian Peterson 2019 Outlook

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Adrian Peterson is the NFC’s Frank Gore: over the RB hill, but refusing to slow down:

 

       16 games in 2018, 251 rushing attempts for 1042 yards / 4.2 ypc / 7 TDs

        plus 20 receptions / 208 yards / 1 TD

 

2018’s RB #15 in fantasy points (standard), just below James White, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb, and above Chris Carson, Tarik Cohen, Tevin Coleman, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Kenyan Drake, Jordan Howard.

 

2-year contract with Washington implies he’s sticking around and Derrius Guice may or may not have an impact, though most likely related to injury recovery. As long as he’s starting, Peterson is a RB2 lock with only his price tag to consider: Guice will help to keep his price down, and positive and negative reports on Guice’s health will yield fluctuations in Peterson’s price tag.

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How much gas does he have left after literally carrying that team last season?

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I also posted this in the Guice forum

2 year $8 million deal but the second year is an option. Base salary is $2.5 million the first year. Sounds like an insurance policy until Guice is 100%

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48 minutes ago, FoosballFan said:

I also posted this in the Guice forum

2 year $8 million deal but the second year is an option. Base salary is $2.5 million the first year. Sounds like an insurance policy until Guice is 100%

 

I don't think ADP would be on board with that, unless they lied to him.

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7 minutes ago, rhg1084 said:

Is he the starter? 

 

By all accounts he’ll have a huge chunk of the job to start the season since Guice hasn’t had much run. They’ll want Guice to play, but AD is playing for retirement money, so Guice is going to need to take the job from a hungry all time great. I honestly don’t expect he will for a while, if at all.

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On 3/13/2019 at 4:04 PM, dashoe said:

How much gas does he have left after literally carrying that team last season?

 

I'm not as hopeful for AP this season as I was last season. I think there is some gas left but I think that there are even bigger problems for him in 2019. The offensive line is an even bigger question mark and with CT healthy, he'll struggle to get anymore than a target or two per game. This offense has no explosive options at WR and the QB situation is shaky at best so the amount of plays they run per game, possessions and goal line opportunities will be a problem. This still doesn't include just how much work Guice will get. I don't "DND" any player because value is value, but AP would come close.

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19 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

I'm not as hopeful for AP this season as I was last season. I think there is some gas left but I think that there are even bigger problems for him in 2019. The offensive line is an even bigger question mark and with CT healthy, he'll struggle to get anymore than a target or two per game. This offense has no explosive options at WR and the QB situation is shaky at best so the amount of plays they run per game, possessions and goal line opportunities will be a problem. This still doesn't include just how much work Guice will get. I don't "DND" any player because value is value, but AP would come close.


Honestly it can't get any worse than last year.
Peterson looked pretty decent with Alex Smith, and then his value tanked sharply as soon as Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson got involved. Keenum is no stud, but he's good enough to keep defenses honest. Guice won't be much of a threat, Thompson is likely to get as just much action as Kapri Bibbs did last year.

Peterson is still in good shape to get 75% of the backfield touches, and despite his age would still get him RB2 status based on volume alone.
Like you said, there's no explosive options at WR... so how else are they gonna move the ball?

Give it to ADP. 

 

 

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On 8/20/2019 at 11:53 AM, AirForceOne said:


Honestly it can't get any worse than last year.

It can't get worse than 1200 yds for a 34 yo RB who's near the end of his career playing behind an even worse OL and joke of an offense?  OK......

 

Quote

Keenum is no stud, but he's good enough to keep defenses honest

No he's not.

Quote

Guice won't be much of a threat,

Yes he will. 

.

Quote

Like you said, there's no explosive options at WR... so how else are they gonna move the ball?

They aren't.  :)  IMO.  I'm OK with him as a late-round flyer, but RB2 projections are very optimistic. 

 

Edited by bomont

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53 minutes ago, wendellrott said:

How's about AP & Trent Williams in a trade with Houston for Clowney 

Makes too much sense to actually happen.

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With Gruden saying Guice is going to be the lead back I wonder how this is sitting with AP.  I wonder if he is cut if they are concerned with his attitude (see NO tenure).  

 

What's left for landing spots?  

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Is everyone on board with dropping AP at this point? I kind of liked AP before the news of Guice being the lead back came out. He's also involved in a 3-headed backfield in WSH with Guice, Thompson, and AP. 

 

I'm considering dropping him to handcuff Fournette with Armstead...

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I dunno what I'd be doing with him.  Redskins clearly in rebuilding mode, so they will play the youngsters a lot.  I'm sure AP understands that, even if it makes him sad.  He might ask for a trade or just resign himself to being the "veteran locker room presence".

I'd probably hold him to see how things shake out, as he's still probably more valuable than anyone on the waiver wire.  He did run for 1000 yards last year.

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I'm holding AP until Guice proves that he's worth the hype, and that he can stay on the field.
With Guice's injury history, running style, and projected workload based on Gruden's comments, it will be interesting to see how long he can make it as the feature back.

I still suspect Peterson will be startable this season at some point. 

 

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51 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

I'm holding AP until Guice proves that he's worth the hype, and that he can stay on the field.
With Guice's injury history, running style, and projected workload based on Gruden's comments, it will be interesting to see how long he can make it as the feature back.

I still suspect Peterson will be startable this season at some point. 

 

 

Pretty much where I am... hold and see right now.. Guice wasn’t practicing for most of the preseason, only received 11 carries in preseason games and now he’s suddenly ready for a bell cow share of snaps? I don’t see it right now.

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Just now, blazehound said:

 

Pretty much where I am... hold and see right now.. Guice wasn’t practicing for most of the preseason, only received 11 carries in preseason games and now he’s suddenly ready for a bell cow share of snaps? I don’t see it right now.

I don't think anyone has said he is going to be a bell-cow back to begin the season. They would have cut AD if that was the case. I also don't think Peterson is worth keeping on fantasy roster either. Guice and Thompson are the backs to own. https://www.nj.com/eagles/2019/09/nfl-rumors-redskins-adrian-peterson-on-thin-ice-with-jay-gruden.html

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39 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:


Haha... nice article, but Jay Gruden is also the most likely candidate to get fired if the Redskins start slow.
He's in the final season of his contract, and has an overall record of 35-44-1 (.444) over the past 6 seasons.

There's a very high probability AP will outlast Jay Gruden this season. 

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2 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


Haha... nice article, but Jay Gruden is also the most likely candidate to get fired if the Redskins start slow.
He's in the final season of his contract, and has an overall record of 35-44-1 (.444) over the past 6 seasons.

There's a very high probability AP will outlast Jay Gruden this season. 

I think Gruden has some lee way, considering this season seems to be geared toward developing Haskins and the young guys around him. I don't think anyone is going to panic if Keenum doesn't get them off to a hot start.

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1 minute ago, sasnumberonefan said:

I think Gruden has some lee way, considering this season seems to be geared toward developing Haskins and the young guys around him. I don't think anyone is going to panic if Keenum doesn't get them off to a hot start.


Here's a good read that summarizes Gruden's situation. It's not great. 

https://www.thehogsty.com/2019/03/27/five-reasons-why-jay-gruden-wont-survive-2019/

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1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

he's a legend but 34 years old. Dude is done.

 

8th in the NFL in rushing yards last season with 1,042 yards on a team with no QB, no TE, and no WRs.  Only 9 RBs in the league broke the 1k mark last year.  Also had the 4th longest rush of the season at 90 yards.  Had 90+ rushing yards in 7 different games last year, tying him with Zeke, Barkley, Gurley, and Carson all tied for first as far as my search can find.

People like you have been calling him 'done' for 5 years now.  AP will tell you when he's done.

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1 minute ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

I have a sneaky feeling he's going to be cut or traded.

Where are the likely destinations? And among those, which should be preferred for us AD owners?

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