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Caleb Smith 2019 Outlook

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ATL is a top 5 offense and 4th at home.  They fair a little weaker against lefties (16th).  Still, first start back from injury, that's a tough draw.  I'll probably sit.

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My guess would be Elieser to the pen...Caleb takes his spot unless Yams implodes but I don't think he will...Also think Gallen is safe...

Glad Smith is back ...K-aleb rules!

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I'm starting him. Guy has been an ace untill right before he went on the IL, but his velocity dropped around the same time, showing he was injured. If they say he's healthy again I'm rolling him out.

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On 7/4/2019 at 10:50 AM, 89Topps said:

ATL is a top 5 offense and 4th at home.  They fair a little weaker against lefties (16th).  Still, first start back from injury, that's a tough draw.  I'll probably sit.

 

Yes they are 16th Runs scored but hey look up the list and you'll quickly see the only reason why they are that low on that list is because of their lack of At Bats against Lefties. Resort the OPS column and they are 8th in OPS against Lefties with a Team OPS of .802. They are 6th in OPS against Righties with a .798 percentage. So pretty much they're solid against both lefties and righties. 

This doesn't mean Caleb can't have a good start but his first start back against this team on the road isn't the ideal situation. Start at your own risk

 

 

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110524502_Screenshot2019-07-07at2_22_18AM.png.ee98e56a93dc1653244ad186cb8c9fc2.png

Caleb's two AA rehab starts. Don't know how much of this was him just working on stuff in that 2nd game, so don't want to read too much into it, but just based on this, 1st game back, and the matchup, I'm sitting. Kudos to anyone bravely trotting him out there.

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2 hours ago, Bobby Blue said:

110524502_Screenshot2019-07-07at2_22_18AM.png.ee98e56a93dc1653244ad186cb8c9fc2.png

Caleb's two AA rehab starts. Don't know how much of this was him just working on stuff in that 2nd game, so don't want to read too much into it, but just based on this, 1st game back, and the matchup, I'm sitting. Kudos to anyone bravely trotting him out there.

 

Uhhh did you miss the 19 k’s in 9.1 innings?  The 1.00 whip?  Pretty sure he’s just fine.  Couple earned runs don’t tell the whole story here

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4 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

Uhhh did you miss the 19 k’s in 9.1 innings?  The 1.00 whip?  Pretty sure he’s just fine.  Couple earned runs don’t tell the whole story here

 

Don't know what you're going on about. Did you read the part where I said I don't want to read to much into it? I thought I was clear in saying I wasn't trying to base anything off those games by themselves.

Anyway, 4 earned runs in 5 IP is not a "couple".

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14 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm starting him. Guy has been an ace untill right before he went on the IL, but his velocity dropped around the same time, showing he was injured. If they say he's healthy again I'm rolling him out.

Props to you, AR. Your reasoning was strong. Still took some balls to start Smith against the Braves, IMO, especially considering this was Smith's first start coming back from an injury, and considering how good the Braves offense is.

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4 minutes ago, BIGFLY4MIKETROUT said:

Anyone watched how he performed tonight?

I mean... he had a perfect game going until the very bottom of the sixth. 

I've seen him anywhere from 50-15 in the rankings. I'd have him as a top-30 arm based on ratios and Ks. Top-20 if he can consistently go deep into games like he did tonight. 

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34 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

I mean... he had a perfect game going until the very bottom of the sixth. 

I've seen him anywhere from 50-15 in the rankings. I'd have him as a top-30 arm based on ratios and Ks. Top-20 if he can consistently go deep into games like he did tonight. 

top 20 in a QS league for sure. But if you need wins the shorter starts and team he plays for are going to make it tough. Seven innings for him is going to be rare even on the nights when he’s  dominant.

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23 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:

7 innings is rare for just about everyone.  Top 20 easily in a QS league.

I guess that’s true, but he is still throwing fewer innings per start than just about anyone else in that top 20 area, like Corbin, Lynn, Giolito, Hendricks, etc. And since he only threw about 80 innings last season it’s unlikely the Fish will push him past six unless he’s absolutely dominant like tonight. Hope I’m wrong, we’ll see. I think the sheer talent makes him top 20 anyway, but there’s more volatility there compared to some of the other guys in that tier. 

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FA- averaged 92 MPH with double plus movement on it, was just missing his spots with it, 54% strike rate whiff 15 hacks and 4 whiffs

SL- had absurdly good command with it and killer spin, tossed 27--23 for strikes with 13 swings and 4 whiffs, sat 82 MPH

CH- man it is a good offering, comes in at the exact speed of his slider with exact same release point, but has starkly different actions on, some of the best sweeping horizontal action I have charted in awhile, also the arm side fade is killer, threw 18--8 strikes with 8 cuts and 4 whiffs

Should *note* that his zone plot was rather beautiful, almost nothing over the heart and worked the periphery of the zone incredibly well and all over--high, low, inner half and outter half...just popping it where he wanted.

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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Get this man the respect he deserves!  Between 2018 and 2019 this is his line, which combines as a full season.

 

32 games

167.1 innings

3.71 ERA

1.12 Whip

198 k’s

10.6 k/9

11 wins(yeah this sucks but oh well)

 

Ill take that as a SP2/3 in any league and all of his numbers have been trending up throughout.  Can’t wait to see what he does the rest of the season into next year.

 

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1 hour ago, BackyardBaseball said:

Get this man the respect he deserves!  Between 2018 and 2019 this is his line, which combines as a full season.

 

32 games

167.1 innings

3.71 ERA

1.12 Whip

198 k’s

10.6 k/9

11 wins(yeah this sucks but oh well)

 

Ill take that as a SP2/3 in any league and all of his numbers have been trending up throughout.  Can’t wait to see what he does the rest of the season into next year.

 

Pumped for next year when he's going to throw 200 (assuming health). Dude is a great pitcher with solid command and control of his stuff.

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Do we have an innings cap here?

 

How about if he is traded?

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What incentive do the fish have to cap his innings? It’s not like he has been overused this season. Unless they want to try and showcase some of the younger arms. 

As for being traded I guess anything is possible depending on the haul back but I would think they want him to be their ace and someone they can build a great rotation around. Having said that as a Smith I would love it if he got traded to a team that could consistently give him run support. He won’t ever get many W’s on that team. 

Edited by Hatfieldodger

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9 hours ago, Hatfieldodger said:

What incentive do the fish have to cap his innings? It’s not like he has been overused this season. Unless they want to try and showcase some of the younger arms. 

As for being traded I guess anything is possible depending on the haul back but I would think they want him to be their ace and someone they can build a great rotation around. Having said that as a Smith I would love it if he got traded to a team that could consistently give him run support. He won’t ever get many W’s on that team. 

63, 118, 77. Those are his innings pitched the last 3 years. I don't know if there was an injury in there, but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets shut down around 135-140, which means possibly losing a couple starts.

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23 hours ago, whips02 said:

Do we have an innings cap here?

Why would he?  He just turned 28 years old today the 28th.  He isn't some baby-faced youngster.

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