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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

They have clowney on the trade block, pump the breaks cuz they could trade for a RB still

They have SOOO many other greater needs. If they do I'm feeling it would like be more depth not a starter.

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Idk ADP might creep up too high for a guy on a team that is horrible with it's running backs. Some of these positive takes where the same things said about Miller when he was traded. I don't trust the coaching staff take him unless he drops around the 6th, and the way the hype train is moving by next week he'll probably shoot up to 4th round status

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10 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

They have SOOO many other greater needs. If they do I'm feeling it would like be more depth not a starter.

Agreed, and I have read reports (though to be fair, this article may be more speculation) that a Clowney trade would be for an offensive lineman. IF that ended up being the case (and IF no RB is included in the hypothetical deal), that could improve the outlook for Duke even further.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/columnists/mcclain/article/Jadeveon-Clowney-on-his-way-out-of-town-14376454.php

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i wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him at the price where he is at now but i'm glad i got him for the price i got him before lamar miller was injured. 

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We'll see what the Texans do.  I highly doubt they are going to stand pat with their RB situation.  At a minimum they will sign someone who could potentially be the starter.

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He just went in round 6 in my 12 team league last night, way way too high for my taste.  They could easily bring in a veteran RB some, Blount, Ivory, Ajayi just to name a few

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59 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

We'll see what the Texans do.  I highly doubt they are going to stand pat with their RB situation.  At a minimum they will sign someone who could potentially be the starter.

 

Agree.  I just think there is no way Johnson will be a feature guy.

Also don't like that the Texans just have not been a team that features a lot of dump off passes to RB's for whatever reason.

I really expect they'll sign somebody like Doug Martin or something.  And this DJ train will come to an end,  Frankly, I'd be trying to trade him right now if I'd already drafted as his value might be as high now as it'll get.

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53 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Agree.  I just think there is no way Johnson will be a feature guy.

Also don't like that the Texans just have not been a team that features a lot of dump off passes to RB's for whatever reason.

 

Wasn't the same true with Cam before he got a rb that could catch the ball?

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1 hour ago, tts42572 said:

Also don't like that the Texans just have not been a team that features a lot of dump off passes to RB's for whatever reason.

 

21 minutes ago, FoosballFan said:

Wasn't the same true with Cam before he got a rb that could catch the ball?

Very true @FoosballFan. In the seasons before the Panthers got CMC, their RB's had very low pass catching stats...

From 2013--2016 (4 seasons), Carolina's top 2 RB's each season had a combined 150 catches for 1281 yards and 8 TD's. Yikes.
From 2017--2018, CMC by himself had 187 catches for 1518 yards and 11 TD's. Cam learned how to throw a RB!

That by itself doesn't mean the Texans will become a team that throws to the RB more. Two different teams and situations. But what it does try and illustrate is that when a team gets an upgrade in an area (such as pass-catching RB), they can modify their gameplan and work to feature the upgrade. Hopefully the Texans didn't trade a good draft pick for Duke just to continue not throwing to RB's.

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Not sure why everyone is doubting Dukes ability to carry the rock early and often!I

His workload increased YoY in college. In his final year he had 250+ carries. 

His ability to catch the ball (apx 70 receptions) couple that with about 250 carries puts him in RB2 territory.

He has the talent and now has the opportunity...he wasnt overused in Cleveland so he should be fairly healthy to start the year.

If Steve Slaton was able to deal with a full workload for 2 seasons...i think we can at least get one good season from Duke.

All in all his value is better this year than it will be next year.

 

Edited by Playahaderno1
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5 minutes ago, Playahaderno1 said:

Not sure why everyone is doubting Dukes ability to carry the rock early and often!I

His workload increased YoY in college. In his final year he had 250+ carries. 

His ability to catch the ball (apx 70 receptions) couple that with about 250 carries puts him in RB2 territory.

He has the talent and now has the opportunity...he wasnt overused in Cleveland so he should be fairly healthy to start the year.

If Steve Slaton was able to deal with a full workload for 2 seasons...i think we can at least get one good season from Duke.

All in all his value is better this year than it will be next year.

 

I get what you're saying here, but if Duke catches 70 balls and gets 250 carriers he is virtually guaranteed to finish as a top 5 back and also would finish with more touches than Gurley, Kamara, and McCaffery did last season.. I don't think the 70 catches are out of the question but I do think he will top out at 175 carries. As a below average goal-line back, assuming they do not sign someone that will significantly command a large market share of carries, we will say he only gets 150 carries:

 

150 rushes, 4.0 YPA, 600 yards, 5 TDs

70 catches, 9.1 YPC= 657 yards, 3 TDs.

PPR points: 225. This would have finished at RB13 ahead of Lindsay and behind Kareem. I want to believe even more carries are possible, but i cannot really see it.

Based on his career averages, if he gets the amount of touches I projected, these numbers are entirely realistic. I don't think receptions are a concern, but the carries are what are iffy. If they don't sign anyone, you've gotta think he is worth a 5th-6th round pick based on these numbers (and is incredible value if these numbers come to fruition).

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Some doubt that a "3rd down RB" type such as Duke Johnson could ever be very good. And who knows, he might not get it done for Houston in 2019. But I think some of the people automatically assuming he won't get it done, may be overlooking two things:

1. The RB position has evolved in the NFL.
2. There are many other "3rd down RB" types who have proven to have success once given a lead role.

For #1, there are fewer bell-cow RB types than there used to be in the past. You don't have to get 20 carries a game to be a good fantasy RB. Todd Gurley has been incredible the past two seasons, but he averaged 18.6 and 18.3 carries across 2017--2018. Heck, Ezekiel Elliott led the league in carries in 2018 and was just barely over 20 carries a game, at 20.3. Kamara averaged 12.9 carries per game. CMC averaged 13.7. James White was a top 8 RB in PPR and averaged 5.9. 

Teams are throwing the ball to RB's more and teams are giving less carries to their best RB's. The Texans may well bring in another RB, but if Duke is provided a reasonable amount of carries, there's a very reasonable chance he'll do well for your fantasy team, when you add the carries into the potential catches he should be able to put up.

For #2, here's one example of a player pegged as a "3rd down RB" types who once given an expanded role, took the chance and ran with it...Tiki Barber:

  Games Rushing Receiving Total Yds      
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
1997 22 NYG rb 21 12 6 136 511 3 42 3.8 42.6 11.3 54 34 299 8.8 1 29 2.8 24.9 63.0% 5.5 170 4.8 810 4 3 6
1998 23 NYG rb 21 16 4 52 166 0 23 3.2 10.4 3.3 59 42 348 8.3 3 87 2.6 21.8 71.2% 5.9 94 5.5 514 3 1 4
1999 24 NYG rb 21 16 1 62 258 0 30 4.2 16.1 3.9 91 66 609 9.2 2 56 4.1 38.1 72.5% 6.7 128 6.8 867 2 5 7
2000 25 NYG RB 21 16 12 213 1006 8 78 4.7 62.9 13.3 95 70 719 10.3 1 36 4.4 44.9 73.7% 7.6 283 6.1 1725 9 9 14

I'm not saying Duke Johnson is Tiki Barber. And I'm not saying the Texans will 100% give Duke Johnson a full chance. But what I am saying is that Barber is just one of many examples in which a player was pegged into one role, starting getting less rushing opportunities after his rookie year, but then blossomed once a hole opened up.

Edited by Corleone
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Texans traded a 3rd rounder for the guy. 

People really think he's just gonna ride the bench? He was going to be involved before Miller went down. Even if they bring in some plodder dude's going to be a big part of what the Texans want to do. 

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40 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I'm not saying the Texans will 100% give Duke Johnson a full chance. 

I am. Why on earth wouldn't they? Who else do they have? Basically no one. I easily rate him higher than I had Miller before the Texans signed Johnson.

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1 hour ago, FoosballFan said:

Wasn't the same true with Cam before he got a rb that could catch the ball?

I'm pretty sure that Houston has a very standard pass distribution. I don't think Watson was Top 10 in any categories last season with regards to how often he threw short, medium, or deep. So the idea that the Texans check down any more or less than the rest of the league is simply untrue. Tannehill, on the other hand...so, agreed completely, Lamar was always a pretty below-average pass catcher.

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10 minutes ago, bomont said:

I am. Why on earth wouldn't they? Who else do they have? Basically no one. I easily rate him higher than I had Miller before the Texans signed Johnson.

I think they should give him a full chance. I hope they give him a full chance as well. Anything is possible with head coaches though, so that's why I can't give out the Corleone 100% guarantee :) 

I personally rate Duke higher than Miller both pre and post-Duke trade.

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4 hours ago, mortman212 said:

He just went in round 6 in my 12 team league last night, way way too high for my taste.  They could easily bring in a veteran RB some, Blount, Ivory, Ajayi just to name a few

I mean, it's possible Duke is, you know, good.

They could've signed any of the currently available running backs before trading a 3rd rounder for him (3rd if he's active 10 games, 4th if not - really just insurance that they'd not give up as much if something happened and Duke were unable to play 10+ games).

Houston saw a talented back who became available and seized the opportunity to get him (at significant cost).

Regardless of injury, I think Houston fully expected/hoped for Duke to supplant Miller at some point this season as at least the 1A option.  Miller's injury simply moves that timetable up (and creates a need for more depth).  I would be surprised if they didn't bring someone else in, because depth is a need, but I think the plan is for Duke to be their feature back and handle a load at least equal to Miller's past usage.

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12 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I mean, it's possible Duke is, you know, good

I agree he has a shot to be good, 6th round was just just too rich for me, but that's the risk of drafting a early.  He could be the bellcow, but for the people who drafted before Lamars injury and drafted duke that was a steal

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Remember: any vet signed before week 1 has his salary guaranteed for the whole year. Not going to happen. 

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Hoping for the best here. I'm cautiously optimistic he will get enough touches to be a RB2, Hell, he was able to claw his way to RB #21 in 2017 with only 82 carries (albeit his main contribution came with his 74/693/3 receiving line).

Edited by griffin727

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I think people are also discounting the fact that Duke is an excellent slot receiver and the Texans are already having serious receiver issues. Lots of question marks behind D HOP right now, with Fuller being no guarantee, and Keke probably having a nasty ankle sprain or even high ankle sprain.

If you factor in the low-end side of carries, and his floor being 70 receptions by just being the RB alone, what about if he plays slot receiver, and scores another 20 receptions there?

We could be looking at a CMC-lite season, especially if DUKE gets goal line carries.

I'd rather have DUKE than Tevin Coleman, Ekeler, Sanders, and the other 5th 6th round guys right now. 

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