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2019 March/April Closer Thread

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47 minutes ago, ImHighandInside said:

 

No

I’d say slight chance if he’s still unsigned in June 

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1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Parker and Rogers are still on my waiver wire.  Like I said I prefer May. I am stubborn like that. 1 game sampler size is not enough 

I am a Rogers owner and still think May is the guy to own. Always go with the righty when its up in the air.

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1 hour ago, GrapeJuice said:

I understand the analytics aspect of the committee theory. My point is that there's a psychological dynamic to it that has been completely ignored. The fact that it can't be quantified has led it to be completely ignored as though it doesn't exist. That's incorrect.

But there was no psychological pressure about working the 9th before the invention of the "closer" by LaRussa.  The horse came first then the cart.  Then the cart appeared as people talked up "pressure" and "spotlight" etc etc.  Revove the horse (the concept of a closer) and the cart will go away eventually as well.

53 minutes ago, STLSU said:

I haven't read the entire thread, but with Barnes tipping pitches, is there a plausible chance Boston goes back to Kimbrel?

No.  No.  And ... oh yeah ... no!!!!!!!!!!  (For the hundredth time).

The Red Sox cannot afford a costly closer period due to the luxury tax penalties and the need to try and put their remaining spendable money into contract extensions for other players like JD (has an opt out) and Xander and even Porcello and JBJ and oh yeah Mookie will be up right after that. 

Plus they aren't enamored of Kimbrel's diminishing skills and silly contract demands anyway but they couldn't afford to sign a really good closer at semi-sensible demands either or they would have in the off season.  They may look for someone cheap at the trade deadline most likely.

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8 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But there was no psychological pressure about working the 9th before the invention of the "closer" by LaRussa.  The horse came first then the cart.  Then the cart appeared as people talked up "pressure" and "spotlight" etc etc.  Revove the horse (the concept of a closer) and the cart will go away eventually as well.

 

Lol what? There’s always been pressure ending a game.

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9 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Lol what? There’s always been pressure ending a game.

No there hasn't.  A clean inning start never was a pressure situation in any inning.  It was always the Fireman's job to take on the real pressure.  They were the stars of the bullpen.  They use to award Fireman of the Year awards too pre-closers era.  Ninth inning "pressure" was an invention and part of the then new Closer Mythos.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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9 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Lol what? There’s always been pressure ending a game.

 

Not like there has been since the invention of the closer. Because with that came fatter contacts for those who could prove to be reliable closers. Add $$$ and a title to the position, and I firmly believe the pressure to end a game has ratcheted up since the closer became a thing. 

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I'm not sure I buy the whole pressure in the 9th thing.  Or at least, I don't think it's as prevalent as we think. Bullpens are erratic by nature and sometimes relievers just suck for stretches. I bet you could find an equal number of 8th inning relievers who suddenly sucked and lost their job as 9th inning relievers who lost there's because of "9th inning pressure". We just don't pay attention to 8th inning relievers losing their job.

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unless any of us are able to acquire a masters degree in psychology, open our own practice, refine our practice over decades, and cross our fingers (insert closer) walks in for an appointment to be psychologically evaluated... it’s all speculation with no basis and should be ignored.

”Closer A was bad today. Because this happened I will conclude He’s a weak minded individual!”

I’m sure there are baseball players that handle stress better than others. but we will never be able to say with any certainty.

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2 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

unless any of us are able to acquire a masters degree in psychology, open our own practice, refine our practice over decades, and cross our fingers (insert closer) walks in for an appointment to be psychologically evaluated... it’s all speculation with no basis and should be ignored.

”Closer A was bad today. Because this happened I will conclude He’s a weak minded individual!”

I’m sure there are baseball players that handle stress better than others. but we will never be able to say with any certainty.

 

I have a headache now

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6 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

unless any of us are able to acquire a masters degree in psychology, open our own practice, refine our practice over decades, and cross our fingers (insert closer) walks in for an appointment to be psychologically evaluated... it’s all speculation with no basis and should be ignored.

”Closer A was bad today. Because this happened I will conclude He’s a weak minded individual!”

I’m sure there are baseball players that handle stress better than others. but we will never be able to say with any certainty.

 

You don't have to be a trained psychologist to know that certain situations come with added pressure. Nor do you have to be a trained psychologist to know that some people have a stronger mental fortitude than others. 

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49 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

You don't have to be a trained psychologist to know that certain situations come with added pressure. Nor do you have to be a trained psychologist to know that some people have a stronger mental fortitude than others. 

 

...nor do you have to be a trained psychologist to know that people often use their own confirmation bias to attribute a reason for something happening when it's not necessarily the case.

I am sure there are isolated cases of guys who aren't mentally built for the 9th but I think they are less common than people think. For every one of those guys there's a guy like Blake Treinen who everyone (including myself) wrote off as "not a closer" after his failed stint with the Nats where he couldn't get anyone out in the 9th. Less than two years later he's the consensus #2 closer off the board. Did he suddenly acquire mental fortitude ? 

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14 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

...nor do you have to be a trained psychologist to know that people often use their own confirmation bias to attribute a reason for something happening when it's not necessarily the case.

I am sure there are isolated cases of guys who aren't mentally built for the 9th but I think they are less common than people think. For every one of those guys there's a guy like Blake Treinen who everyone (including myself) wrote off as "not a closer" after his failed stint with the Nats where he couldn't get anyone out in the 9th. Less than two years later he's the consensus #2 closer off the board. Did he suddenly acquire mental fortitude ? 

 

Totally agree with your first statement. 

 

As for Treinen, I never thought he lacked mental fortitude to close out games, so I can't speak to that. 

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22 hours ago, Dontrelle Willis said:

I still think it’s Peralta for KC but yea I’ll be doing the same.

 

 

Boxberger got a 1 out save yesterday. Could be telling moving forward.

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RE : MIN

The best strategy is starting both May and Rodgers.  I can see Rodgers being Hader lite which even without saves is a very productive fantasy player.

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3 minutes ago, nlm said:

 

 

Boxberger got a 1 out save yesterday. Could be telling blowing saves moving forward.

 

ftfy

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I'll take 'em where they are, while they're there.

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Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

 

I don't know, honestly. It's not like his career has been marred with pock marks.

 

He might actually offer a bit of consistency in the back of that pen.

 

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

A couple bad months from a reliever is pretty significant.

I'm not high on him, but a closer is a closer. Even if the ratios are ugly, it's still a save. Those are gold in many formats. And there's always a chance he has a good run lasting all season. If he's available he's someone I would snag asap unless saves are relatively easy to come by in your league (ie maybe sho points leagues).

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

You don't have to be a trained psychologist to know that certain situations come with added pressure. Nor do you have to be a trained psychologist to know that some people have a stronger mental fortitude than others. 

 

you are correct. some people can handle pressure some people cannot. unfortunately we cannot know with any significant certainty who those people are. all speculation no substance. we do not know these players on a personal level.

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I tried to post this yesterday, but the link was jacked up. This article from Jan 3rd offers great insight into the changes that Rogers made mid-season 2018 that have transformed him into a dominant RP. I think he's going to be worth rostering for the Ks and ratios alone, while also being in the mix for saves. 

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/taylor-rogers-coming-off-breakout-season-c302334308

 

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5 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

 

you are correct. some people can handle pressure some people cannot. unfortunately we cannot know with any significant certainty who those people are. all speculation no substance. we do not know these players on a personal level.

I'm out of likes, but very much this. Unless a player actually comes out and says it, it's dumb to speculate. Few, if any, of us are even qualified to determine this kind of thing in a professional setting. But we're supposed to determine the relative accuracy of this from watching a player have a few bad outings? A position that is already notorious for its volatility? Get out of here with that nonsense.

 

And even if a player DID say they can't handle it, that might not actually be true and we should take it with at least a small grain of salt. Just because someone thinks something doesn't necessarily mean it's true. 

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

 

Because he hasn't been an elite RP in the past outside of one season, and 2014 seems like a long time ago now. As a RP/CL, he wasn't good at all in 2015 even though he secured 41 saves...that ERA was meh and his WHIP was awful. He was terrible in 2016...solid in 2017. Then last year he was solid, but a terrible June and horrific September seriously tainted his numbers, leading again to a full season of bad ERA and bad WHIP. He saved 32 games, but it came at a cost to his owners' ratios. And he still struggles with the free passes, and at age 31, it's doubtful he suddenly stops walking batters. 

 

9 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

 

you are correct. some people can handle pressure some people cannot. unfortunately we cannot know with any significant certainty who those people are. all speculation no substance. we do not know these players on a personal level.

 

I absolutely agree with you here. 

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