PackersFan1979

LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

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4 hours ago, SpartanEric said:

Oh man, I was inebriated when I posted that. I was surprised to see someone quote me in this thread because I didn’t recall ever posting in it. 🤷‍♀️

 

Awesome. Good to know I'm not alone. 

[fist bump] 

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How do people rank McCoy, Guice, and Drake for half PPR?  Right now I have McCoy first, Guice second, Drake third, but I keep going back and forth on how to rank them.  I feel like McCoy and Guice have more upside than Drake.

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41 minutes ago, ZappB said:

How do people rank McCoy, Guice, and Drake for half PPR?  Right now I have McCoy first, Guice second, Drake third, but I keep going back and forth on how to rank them.  I feel like McCoy and Guice have more upside than Drake.

 

To me McCoy is an upside play who you draft as your fourth or fifth RB. Even if he is the secondary RB, if the Saints can sustain two fantasy relevant RBs so can the Chiefs. Guice is similar. I like Guice more than McCoy because Guice has an easier path to RB1 or RB2 status and, per the latest report, will begin the year as the committee leader. McCoy may surpass Williams but you have to assume Williams will begin the season with the lead.

 

Miami is such a mess, Drake so frustrating I haven't given him any thought this year but I like taking a stab at Guice, L. Murray, Guice (in that order) at that price point.

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24 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

To me McCoy is an upside play who you draft as your fourth or fifth RB. Even if he is the secondary RB, if the Saints can sustain two fantasy relevant RBs so can the Chiefs. Guice is similar. I like Guice more than McCoy because Guice has an easier path to RB1 or RB2 status and, per the latest report, will begin the year as the committee leader. McCoy may surpass Williams but you have to assume Williams will begin the season with the lead.

 

Miami is such a mess, Drake so frustrating I haven't given him any thought this year but I like taking a stab at Guice, L. Murray, Guice (in that order) at that price point.

That makes sense, yeah that's how I've been seeing this group.  I've consistently been able to get at least one of McCoy/Guice/Murray so far as my RB 4/5.  I have Murray right in front of the others but it's close in my eyes anyway - like another poster said earlier above, I don't think Peterson is just going to go away, plus Thompson is still around.

It looks like you had a typo in the end but based on what you wrote I think you meant to say Guice, Murray, McCoy.  

Edited by ZappB
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Mccoy can be had for so cheap right now in yahoo leagues. His price point is appealing. He's one of the best handcuffs out there and could even return standalone value on a good offense, although I'd probably wait for week 1 to see if the standalone value is good enough for a RB3/flex spot. As a Williams owner, you kind of have to handcuff him with McCoy.

Guice is probably a better prospect but comes with a heftier price tag and plays on a worse offense.

I think McCoy is a better pick at his position but obviously would pick Guice before McCoy head to head.

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7 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

Mccoy can be had for so cheap right now in yahoo leagues. His price point is appealing. He's one of the best handcuffs out there and could even return standalone value on a good offense, although I'd probably wait for week 1 to see if the standalone value is good enough for a RB3/flex spot. As a Williams owner, you kind of have to handcuff him with McCoy.

Guice is probably a better prospect but comes with a heftier price tag and plays on a worse offense.

I think McCoy is a better pick at his position but obviously would pick Guice before McCoy head to head.

Do you mean to say if Guice and McCoy were both on KC, you would prefer Guice?

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Do you mean to say if Guice and McCoy were both on KC, you would prefer Guice?

 

No sorry I meant if given the chance to pick up either Guice or McCoy at a given draft spot/position, I would take Guice straight up. But factor in their draft positions, I would probably lean towards McCoy.

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5 hours ago, viciousphilpy said:

Step outside of your own roster and ask yourself how you’d feel if you drafted Williams in the 2nd...

Hence the hate for McCoy here

 

That's pretty much what this is. Plus rotoworld always likes the "high upside RB" that has the chance to come out of nowhere and will the league. Seems like every year a majority of posters will latch on to these "potential breakout" guys and hang on for dear life regardless of any thing has happens roster-wise or coaching wise. We'll see if williams will be another rotoworld darling that lets everyone down

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50 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

That's pretty much what this is. Plus rotoworld always likes the "high upside RB" that has the chance to come out of nowhere and will the league. Seems like every year a majority of posters will latch on to these "potential breakout" guys and hang on for dear life regardless of any thing has happens roster-wise or coaching wise. We'll see if williams will be another rotoworld darling that lets everyone down

I hear you, but honestly, finding the high-upside guys is what wins leagues.  McCoy isn’t that - but certainly deserves a shot on rosters, even if only as a good flex.

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7 hours ago, viciousphilpy said:

Step outside of your own roster and ask yourself how you’d feel if you drafted Williams in the 2nd...

Hence the hate for McCoy here

 

I’d hate myself. Thank god I don’t hate myself that much.

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When drafting in Shady's range... I think "I'd rather have a player that was once ELITE... And could have Elite moments in the future... Due to an elite coach and offensive system, than a random COP back that has never been to that level or will due to their circumstances."

 

...And then I end up always pulling the trigger on McCoy.

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52 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I hear you, but honestly, finding the high-upside guys is what wins leagues.  McCoy isn’t that - but certainly deserves a shot on rosters, even if only as a good flex.

 

1586 yards from scrimmage and 8tds on a mediocre Buffalo team that hardly saw the red zone just a season prior to last year. 

He couldn’t have landed in a more perfect situation this season. High power offense, best qb in the league, reunited with old coach and most importantly the guy ahead of him (for now) has literally been a nobody for 5 years in the league with the exception of 4-5 good games to finish last year. 

McCoy’s ADP is right around 100 and 40th rb overall.  

I don’t see any upside here either. I also don’t expect to see any sand when I go to the beach. 

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1 minute ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

1586 yards from scrimmage and 8tds on a mediocre Buffalo team that hardly saw the red zone just a season prior to last year. 

He couldn’t have landed in a more perfect situation this season. High power offense, best qb in the league, reunited with old coach and most importantly the guy ahead of him (for now) has literally been a nobody for 5 years in the league with the exception of 4-5 good games to finish last year. 

McCoy’s ADP is right around 100 and 40th rb overall.  

I don’t see any upside here either. I also don’t expect to see any sand when I go to the beach. 

Bills were easily in the top-half in RZ scoring efficiency in 2017 (over 60% scoring for around 7th in the league).  That’s a lot of sand.

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There’s also another question of Williams’s durability.

It’s a 2 sided coin. On the one hand, he’s never topped 50 carries on the season so we don’t know if he can handle 200-300.

On the other hand, his 183 career total carries would suggest that his body is relatively “young” in terms of workload.

Guess we will have to wait and see...

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Bills were easily in the top-half in RZ scoring efficiency in 2017 (over 60% scoring for around 7th in the league).  That’s a lot of sand.

 

Well that’s surprising since no receiver caught more than 3tds and Tyrod only threw14 tds but I’ll take you at your word. 

With that said.. Shady WAS the Bills offense in 2017. Their top 2 receivers were Charles Clay 49/558/2 and McCoy 59/448/2. 

Point is McCoy is a proven stud that was the Bills entire offense his whole time there with the exception of last year. You put a stud in not just a favorable situation but the best possible situation for him and you’d be hard pressed not to see “high-upside”.... at least one would think. 

Edited by Asian Sensation

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4 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

Well that’s surprising since no receiver caught more than 3tds and Tyrod only threw14 tds but I’ll take you at your word. 

With that said.. Shady WAS the Bills offense in 2017. Their top 2 receivers were Charles Clay 49/558/2 and McCoy 59/448/2. 

Point is McCoy is a proven stud that was the Bills entire offense his whole time there with the exception of last year. You put a stud in not just a favorable situation but the best possible situation for him and you’d be hard pressed not to see “high-upside”.... at least one would think. 

I appreciate your answer.  And I largely agree with you.  But you have to also understand that “high upside” and “31-year-old RB” rarely go hand in hand - regardless of situation.  Particularly not with a guy who averaged less than 3 YPC with 6-6.5 in the box last year.

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2 hours ago, Guwop said:

 

That's pretty much what this is. Plus rotoworld always likes the "high upside RB" that has the chance to come out of nowhere and will the league. Seems like every year a majority of posters will latch on to these "potential breakout" guys and hang on for dear life regardless of any thing has happens roster-wise or coaching wise. We'll see if williams will be another rotoworld darling that lets everyone down

Every good fantasy players goes for high upside guys once they’re past the first 7-9 rounds or so. What’s even the point of drafting a guy like Payton Barber?

The problem is taking these guys in the first 3 rounds. It’s not a rotoworld problem it’s a problem in fantasy overall. Recency bias causes JAG RBs who strung together a few good games to vault into the top 20.

Any who, I love Shady. I don’t believe in Williams and I also don’t think McCoy is as washed up as some make him to be. I personally have him as a 6th round value and he can be had much later than that. 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I appreciate your answer.  And I largely agree with you.  But you have to also understand that “high upside” and “31-year-old RB” rarely go hand in hand - regardless of situation.  Particularly not with a guy who averaged less than 3 YPC with 6-6.5 in the box last year.

 

The article is old 2010 and and I’m not gonna disagree that it’s rare but it’s also not impossible.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/418808-nfl-history-top-10-running-backs-who-broke-through-the-30-year-old-wall#slide3

Since 2011 we’ve had 

McGhee 30 1199

Gore 30  1128

Gore 31 1106

Peterson 30 1485

Blount 30 1161

Gore 32 1025

Peterson 33 1044 

And numerous guys that just missed the 1000 yard rushing mark at age 30+ Since 2010 like Gore again at age 34 for 961, De’Angello williams, Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, LT etc. 

I get last year was bad and yes I agree he’s not in his prime any more so I can see why you may be bearish but I think he’s still got more than enough in the tank to produce at a high level given his circumstances and situation.

I’m not saying McCoy is gonna rush for 1,000 yards but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he did. Even if he doesn’t I can’t see him rushing for less than 700 absolute floor. When we factor in the receiving yards which he’s always been excellent at. It wouldn’t be out of the question for him to finish close to 1,000 total combined yards.That’s a steal at his ADP and what I would personally define as being high upside. That’s my prediction even with Williams around.

If Williams sh*ts the bed (again, he’s not a proven commodity) the upside could be a potential league winner based on his ADP. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Every good fantasy players goes for high upside guys once they’re past the first 7-9 rounds or so. What’s even the point of drafting a guy like Payton Barber?

The problem is taking these guys in the first 3 rounds. It’s not a rotoworld problem it’s a problem in fantasy overall. Recency bias causes JAG RBs who strung together a few good games to vault into the top 20.

Any who, I love Shady. I don’t believe in Williams and I also don’t think McCoy is as washed up as some make him to be. I personally have him as a 6th round value and he can be had much later than that. 

 

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Grabbed off waivers for 16% of FAAB. Im elated tbh. Also holding Darwin. Next closest bid was 12%. I feel good about holding majority of KC's backfield (and the 2 most talented names IMO).

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-Draft in Round 10 or later

-Press play

-Take off shirt and wave around your head

Edited by GriffeySwag

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Got McCoy off the waivers this morning (Dwill) owner. I'm thinking of starting both not sure if this week might be too soon for McCoy to 50/50 of the workload? How many of you are rolling him out this weekend?

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6 hours ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

The article is old 2010 and and I’m not gonna disagree that it’s rare but it’s also not impossible.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/418808-nfl-history-top-10-running-backs-who-broke-through-the-30-year-old-wall#slide3

Since 2011 we’ve had 

McGhee 30 1199

Gore 30  1128

Gore 31 1106

Peterson 30 1485

Blount 30 1161

Gore 32 1025

Peterson 33 1044 

And numerous guys that just missed the 1000 yard rushing mark at age 30+ Since 2010 like Gore again at age 34 for 961, De’Angello williams, Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, LT etc. 

I get last year was bad and yes I agree he’s not in his prime any more so I can see why you may be bearish but I think he’s still got more than enough in the tank to produce at a high level given his circumstances and situation.

I’m not saying McCoy is gonna rush for 1,000 yards but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he did. Even if he doesn’t I can’t see him rushing for less than 700 absolute floor. When we factor in the receiving yards which he’s always been excellent at. It wouldn’t be out of the question for him to finish close to 1,000 total combined yards.That’s a steal at his ADP and what I would personally define as being high upside. That’s my prediction even with Williams around.

If Williams sh*ts the bed (again, he’s not a proven commodity) the upside could be a potential league winner based on his ADP. 

If you are referring to high upside in relation to his current ADP, then I would have to agree.  Part of the problem, though, is that this has the looks of a 3-man committee at least for the time being.    Which saps the fantasy value of all backfield members until something changes.

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