PackersFan1979

LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

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If you owned Hunt last year or watched KC 

Reid used the Rbs in a rotation. Hunt 1st/2nd downs - SpencerWare on 3rd down/2 min drill.

It was maddening as a Hunt owner to see him not used on 3rd down nor 2 min drill but this was how Reid rotated his RBs all season even when Damien took over due to injury.

I wager same rotation will be used this year but McCoy >>>>>> Ware.

Edited by Zak0221

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42 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Yea, because Reid runs things like Nagy and LaFluer right? Lol. When was the last time Reid ran a 3 back committee? 12 years ago for a season? There is a reason his lead RB has been a top 8 fantasy back the past 10 years, they see most of the work, The only time in the last 8 years Reid has even run a 2 back committee was 2014 when Charles was coming off an ACL the year before and then suffered a high ankle sprain in week two. So Kniles Davis saw 150 carries that year to Charles 206. Charles still ran for over 1,000 yards, broke Chiefs records and went to the pro bowl.

 

Oh and by the way, I said last week in the Tony Pollard thread that I would rather have Mike Davis than Pollard if I were looking for a RB that was going to be involved and possibly take the starting job. People laughed at that. Not so funny now is it? Only people who don’t know fantasy thought Montgomery was going to be some bell cow and Davis would be riding the bench. 

 

Yeah, Mike Davis really killed it with those 19 yards rushing. You totally showed everyone. 🙄🙄🙄

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8 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

Yeah, Mike Davis really killed it with those 19 yards rushing. You totally showed everyone. 🙄🙄🙄

 

Spoken by someone with no clue about fantasy football. Look at the snaps played, not the yardage. 

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We don't have a crystal ball - and don't be shy to stash Darwin still - but Shady is in a great situation. The pragmatic thought process is own him and watch things unfold. Don't start him Week 1.

By December I think he will have 7-10 TDs easy, barring injury. Maybe he has some miraculous fountain of youth and does more, but at the very leasty he will be flexy. Book it.

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13 minutes ago, austin316 said:

We don't have a crystal ball - and don't be shy to stash Darwin still - but Shady is in a great situation. The pragmatic thought process is own him and watch things unfold. Don't start him Week 1.

By December I think he will have 7-10 TDs easy, barring injury. Maybe he has some miraculous fountain of youth and does more, but at the very leasty he will be flexy. Book it.

My hopes exactly.

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1 hour ago, Panthor said:

 

3rd RB in the 8th round sounds a bit late. but i suppose that also means you have big guns at WR, so the team should be fine. 

 

I don’t - Beckham/Boyd/Kupp. Had to work all weekend and auto drafted.  Team is garbage.  

 

For the majority of teams, I think McCoy is decent value where he is being drafted.  However, I’m just not a huge believer in a 31 year old who has had nagging injuries the last few years.

 

Definitely think it’s possible he beats out Williams, but even then, I’m expecting “meh” volume and average RB production on a per touch basis. And that even assumes health.  

 

the one saving grace is goal line work. Most likely, I see McCoy as a TD-dependent flex. 

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If McCoy gets some entire series to himself then we have something cooking in terms of standalone Flex value, otherwise he will need Damien to get injured to be fantasy relevant.

7-10 TDs for the 3rd down COP / hurry up RB is laughable. 

Please go look at the game logs last year and check out what Spencer Ware did until Hunt got suspended and then check out what Damien Williams did when Ware started.  

Thats the type of work that is 'expected' for McCoy however obviously theres always a chance that there will be room for a bit more considering his talent and Reid's familiarity with him wanting him to be signed this year.  That shouldnt be relied upon at all however, rather it would be a pleasant surprise. 

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9 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

If McCoy gets some entire series to himself then we have something cooking in terms of standalone Flex value, otherwise he will need Damien to get injured to be fantasy relevant.

7-10 TDs for the 3rd down COP / hurry up RB is laughable. 

Please go look at the game logs last year and check out what Spencer Ware did until Hunt got suspended and then check out what Damien Williams did when Ware started.  

Thats the type of work that is 'expected' for McCoy however obviously theres always a chance that there will be room for a bit more considering his talent and Reid's familiarity with him wanting him to be signed this year.  That shouldnt be relied upon at all however, rather it would be a pleasant surprise. 

 

I don’t think it’s set in stone that McCoy is the de facto COP back. 

Williams should get first crack simply because of more familiarity with the playbook, but it’s not like Damien is some elite RB the Chiefs paid huge money to bring in.  The Chiefs aren’t invested in him and he’s going to have a short leash.  For all we know, Reid plans on making Shady the lead back once he gets more reps. 

Edited by Rainyy
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3 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

I don’t think it’s set in stone that McCoy is the de facto COP back. 

Williams should get first crack simply because of more familiarity with the playbook, but it’s not like Damien is some elite RB the Chiefs paid huge money to bring in.  The Chiefs aren’t invested in him and he’s going to have a short leash.  For all we know, Reid plans on making Shady the lead back once he gets more reps. 

 

If you have watched KC or AR over the years its very obvious what the playing time split will be.  Probably McCoy owners want to 'not know' what the split will be but most people who have followed the team and the coaches style know.  

McCoy is the 3rd down / 2 min drill ( pass catcher) back.  You will see him often every 3rd down or hurry up offense.  Damien will still catch his fair share of balls but they will be on 1st and 2nd down ( just like Kareem Hunt all last year )

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2 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

If you have watched KC or AR over the years its very obvious what the playing time split will be.  Probably McCoy owners want to 'not know' what the split will be but most people who have followed the team and the coaches style know.  

McCoy is the 3rd down / 2 min drill ( pass catcher) back.  You will see him often every 3rd down or hurry up offense.  Damien will still catch his fair share of balls but they will be on 1st and 2nd down ( just like Kareem Hunt all last year )

lol. Shady is actually a better runner berween the tackles than DWill. There is nothing DWill is better at than Shady is. Why would they "limit" shady to pass catcher back.

 

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Just now, Zak0221 said:

 

If you have watched KC or AR over the years its very obvious what the playing time split will be.  Probably McCoy owners want to 'not know' what the split will be but most people who have followed the team and the coaches style know.  

McCoy is the 3rd down / 2 min drill ( pass catcher) back.  You will see him often every 3rd down or hurry up offense.  Damien will still catch his fair share of balls but they will be on 1st and 2nd down ( just like Kareem Hunt all last year )

 

Why is it obvious?  I’m not contesting how the Chiefs generally use RBs.  I’m wondering how you know what roles those RBs will play in.  

 

At least, I think we’re in agreement that Williams gets first shot given his performance in the playoffs, his contract extension, and his familiarity with the playbook.

 

On the other hand, Williams has done very little in his career - unlike McCoy.  Reid also likes McCoy and is familiar with his skillset.

 

truthfully, I have no idea how this will shake out. I just know there’s a ton of obstacles facing Shady, particularly if he is to be anything better than a flex. 

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1 minute ago, Rainyy said:

 

Why is it obvious?  I’m not contesting how the Chiefs generally use RBs.  I’m wondering how you know what roles those RBs will play in.  

 

At least, I think we’re in agreement that Williams gets first shot given his performance in the playoffs, his contract extension, and his familiarity with the playbook.

 

On the other hand, Williams has done very little in his career - unlike McCoy.  Reid also likes McCoy and is familiar with his skillset.

 

truthfully, I have no idea how this will shake out. I just know there’s a ton of obstacles facing Shady, particularly if he is to be anything better than a flex. 

 

I prefaced my comments by stating I owned Hunt last year and I watched this RB rotation all year ( even snagging Williams after Ware got injured who I had on my bench all year).

I also owned the KC backfield when JC was there when it transitioned to West/Ware.  I then owned Ware the following year as well.  

Going back even further, Ive owned McCoy when HE was on the Eagles.  I have watched Reid have maddening choices with his RB usage in terms of carries and how pass happy he generally is but one thing is consistent year in year out, he has never really used a full blown RBBC.  His RBs all have standard roles that he uses and when one of those RBs gets injured where they cant perform that role, he slides the rotation up.  

Maybe this is the season he dramatically changes how he uses his RBs, but I am not buying it and theres plenty of evidence to point to with how the usage will be split up.

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Ive played Madden games starting Both DWill and Shady in different games. I can confirm my team has won the games easier with Shady as my rb1. With better rushing yards.

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2 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Why is it obvious?  I’m not contesting how the Chiefs generally use RBs.  I’m wondering how you know what roles those RBs will play in.  

 

At least, I think we’re in agreement that Williams gets first shot given his performance in the playoffs, his contract extension, and his familiarity with the playbook.

 

On the other hand, Williams has done very little in his career - unlike McCoy.  Reid also likes McCoy and is familiar with his skillset.

 

truthfully, I have no idea how this will shake out. I just know there’s a ton of obstacles facing Shady, particularly if he is to be anything better than a flex. 

 

Agree with most of this, but wanted to point out that the contract situation would favor Shady as the starter, as he got $3 million guaranteed for 1 year, while Williams only got $1.6 million guaranteed for 2 years.

I also don't see a ton of obstacles for Shady.  Just learning the playbook and being better than his competition (Damien, Darwin).  Nothing else.  The playbook is a given.  It's really if he can outperform the other RBs.

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2 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Ive played Madden games starting Both DWill and Shady in different games. I can confirm my team has won the games easier with Shady as my rb1. With better rushing yards.

 

I used to sub in Deshaun Foster over Stephen Davis back in the day for the extra speed ( 90 vs 85) so I could take things to the house when the opportunity was there.  

AR doesn't play Madden however and he typically has a formula for his game flow scripts.  

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14 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Right, watching this coach and how he uses his RBs for several seasons means nothing.

Looking forward to seeing how this shakes out either way but to discount people's opinions at face value when you provide nothing at all to the conversation is a bold strategy for winning fantasy leagues. 

I've been watching Andy Reid's offense since 1999 when I became a die hard Eagles fan, so it's safe to say I have been watching for several seasons as well. You seem to be assuming that Williams will get way more carries than McCoy with no evidence. We will have to wait and see. 

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2 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

I've been watching Andy Reid's offense since 1999 when I became a die hard Eagles fan, so it's safe to say I have been watching for several seasons as well. You seem to be assuming that Williams will get way more carries than McCoy with no evidence. We will have to wait and see. 

 

I provided my evidence for my statements however you are just dismissing them with no evidence of your own.

😑

What trends that you noticed over the years have shown Reid's #2 RB getting more carries than the #1?

Edited by Zak0221

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Just now, Zak0221 said:

 

I provided my evidence for my statements however you are just dismissing them with no evidence of your own.

😑

This is a new year man, you are grasping at straws. So since the last time Andy Reid had McCoy he was the bellcow so that must mean he will be the bellcow now? See how I can make stuff up? I do like your avatar though Steve Smith was a BEAST!

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3 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

 

Someone posted this in the Damien thread. Shady is talked about for the first 2:30. What do you guys think?

I think they're living in the past. Williams is better than McCoy in every way imaginable, and by a wide margin. Only way DWill loses the starting job is if he gets hurt, and my guess is McCoy would be next man up, look terrible, and Darwin would be the guy. 

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People think Damian Williams is a lot better then he actually is. I understand being protective of your draft pick. I wonder if any of the posters that are ardent Williams supporters don’t own a share and feel the need to protect their pick.

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4 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

 

Someone posted this in the Damien thread. Shady is talked about for the first 2:30. What do you guys think?

 

Speaking about McCoy: "He's a unique player."  Reading between the lines, he can't wait to use him.  It won't be long before he surpasses Damien to become the 1A to his 1B IMO.  Shady's gonna have a nice little bounce back year, I can just feel it.

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From Week 1 2017 (Kareem Hunt), to Week 14 2018 (Spencer Ware), the Kansas City Chiefs' leading running back got 14+ carries in 22 of 29 games (75.86%).

During this time, the Chiefs posted a record of 21-8 (72.41%). 

 

From Week 15 onward, Damien Williams got 14+ carries in 1 of 5 games (20.00%).

During this time, the Chiefs posted a record of 2-3 (40.0%), and Mahomes averaged 2.2 sacks/game (up from 1.8 sacks/game from Week 1 - Week 14). 

 

Damien Williams has gotten 14+ carries in 1 of 77 career games (1.29%).

LeSean McCoy has gotten 14+ carries in 51 of 73 games in that same timespan (69.86%). 

 

Damien Williams put up 141/516/3 in the first 70 games of his career—prorated to 224 carries (14 per game) that paces out to be 224/820/4.8.

McCoy put up by far his worst numbers last season, but in the games where he got 14+ carries, the Bills went 3-2 (60.00%) and he put up 98/369/2, prorated to 224 carries (14 per game) that paces out to be 224/843/4.6.

The difference between those two hypothetical seasons worth of carries? 23 yards and 0.2 TD's. Pretty close, no?

 

Point being, if you think that Damien Williams' fantasy resurgence has far more to do with the opportunity (getting starting level reps with Kansas City) than him randomly becoming exponentially more talented when Kareem got suspended, then it's not impossible to see low RB1 value if McCoy somehow wins the backfield to himself (unlikely, but injuries happen) or RB2/Flex value if McCoy/Damien form an RBBC. 

Edited by vercrazy
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4 hours ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

You seem to be assuming that Williams will get way more carries than McCoy with no evidence. We will have to wait and see. 



Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa... You're telling me you guys don't have any evidence of any of this? Then what the hell have we been discussing for 25 pages!? Here I was thinking you were all clairvoyants and Andy Reid experts telling me exactly how the backfield was going to shake out, and now you're telling me that you're all just making assumptions based on past usage with completely different personnel and actually have no f*cking clue what's going to happen until the season starts!?

Well I am SHOCKED, I tell you. 

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