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LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Hes been with the team a month. It doesn't take that long to learn their schemes, especially when he's played for Reid before. Hes the lead back because Damien Williams got hurt. Will be interesting to see if Damien goes back to his starting role once healthy. I hope not because I dropped him. 

Then why did the coaches say that was the reason he wasn’t in on more pass plays and that it is different than their days together in Philly?

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High stakes leagues have the same losers, just with more money.

Duke Johnson owners right now..  

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2 hours ago, y2jbones said:

It’s definitely a committee but McCoy is only getting less snaps because he is still learning the Chiefs blocking schemes. He’s the lead back because he’s the most talented. As he learns the system better each week, his share will increase compared to Williams. Once all three are healthy, it will become a 3 back committee, but I still see McCoy retaining lead back duties.  

I disagree. McCoy has never been a GL back, so that'll go to Darrel. And Darrel is gonna be the 2-minute guy because he's proven more than competent in that area. With McCoy's mileage they're always gonna limit him to some degree. He's not gonna go from 50 to 75 once he "learns the playbook". It is what it is. 

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2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I disagree. McCoy has never been a GL back, so that'll go to Darrel. And Darrel is gonna be the 2-minute guy because he's proven more than competent in that area. With McCoy's mileage they're always gonna limit him to some degree. He's not gonna go from 50 to 75 once he "learns the playbook". It is what it is. 

 

He has a few goal line TD's already if I'm not mistaken?

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29 minutes ago, jwilsonxo said:

 

He has a few goal line TD's already if I'm not mistaken?

He does, but he's not the best GL back on this team, so if they have a specific GL situation he won't be the guy. The TD he got at the GL was just a drive that was already his. He'll still get those. 

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5 hours ago, y2jbones said:

It’s definitely a committee but McCoy is only getting less snaps because he is still learning the Chiefs blocking schemes. He’s the lead back because he’s the most talented. As he learns the system better each week, his share will increase compared to Williams. Once all three are healthy, it will become a 3 back committee, but I still see McCoy retaining lead back duties.  

How do you know all of this?  Are you their RBs coach?

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16 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He does, but he's not the best GL back on this team, so if they have a specific GL situation he won't be the guy. The TD he got at the GL was just a drive that was already his. He'll still get those. 

 

This opinion isn't at all supported by McCoy's usage over the last 2 weeks.  His first TD against Baltimore occurred after he replaced Williams on the 3 (after a failed Williams carry). Against Detroit his TD was on a drive where he replaced Williams once the offense got to the 2 (after the Hardman catch & UNR penalty).  I don't think there is anything that supports the idea that KC has a specific goal line back.  

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3 hours ago, kevinwayne20 said:

 

This opinion isn't at all supported by McCoy's usage over the last 2 weeks.  His first TD against Baltimore occurred after he replaced Williams on the 3 (after a failed Williams carry). Against Detroit his TD was on a drive where he replaced Williams once the offense got to the 2 (after the Hardman catch & UNR penalty).  I don't think there is anything that supports the idea that KC has a specific goal line back.  

I agree in terms of what we've seen thus far. But for as talented as McCoy is he's never been a big TD guy. Both Williams but Darrel specifically is much bigger. He's better suited for GL work. 

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27 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

29th all time in rushing TDs in NFL history.  Ahead of MJD, Eddie George, OJ Simpson, Herschel Walker, Terrell Davis, etc.  Had 17 rushing TDs in a season and 13 rushing TDs in 2016 for Buffalo.  17 rushing TDs is Gurley's career high.  Zeke's top season is 15.  Curtis Martin never had more than 14.  Barkley had 11 last year.  CJ2K's 2000 yard season had only 14.  One of the greatest goal-line backs of all time, Marcus Allen, never ran in more than 12 in a season.

People have lost perspective on how good a player Lesean McCoy has been during his career simply because last season was lousy in Buffalo. 

"McCoy's not good at the goal line, KC should use random undrafted free agent RB with like 2 career rushing TDs at the goal line instead."  Give me a break.

The guys claiming Williams is the goal line back or a better goal line back have no idea what they are talking about. McCoy has looked far superior on the goal line and it’s not even close. 

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1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

 

29th all time in rushing TDs in NFL history.  Ahead of MJD, Eddie George, OJ Simpson, Herschel Walker, Terrell Davis, etc.  Had 17 rushing TDs in a season and 13 rushing TDs in 2016 for Buffalo.  17 rushing TDs is Gurley's career high.  Zeke's top season is 15.  Curtis Martin never had more than 14.  Barkley had 11 last year.  CJ2K's 2000 yard season had only 14.  One of the greatest goal-line backs of all time, Marcus Allen, never ran in more than 12 in a season.

People have lost perspective on how good a player Lesean McCoy has been during his career simply because last season was lousy in Buffalo. 

"McCoy's not good at the goal line, KC should use random undrafted free agent RB with like 2 career rushing TDs at the goal line instead."  Give me a break.

McCoy has had a phenomenal career. Also a very long career. You bring up Zeke and Gurley, they score a rushing TD in 70% and 80% of their games respectively, Shady is at 47%. That is a huge difference. 

But even beyond that, McCoy just doesn't have the prototypical size of a GL back. Darrel does. And don't get me wrong, when McCoy was a bellcow they weren't subbing 230 pounders in on the 1, but KC is a committee. I could see that happening here. 

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7 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He does, but he's not the best GL back on this team, so if they have a specific GL situation he won't be the guy. The TD he got at the GL was just a drive that was already his. He'll still get those. 

I’m sorry but that’s not how GL backs work.

GL backs come in on the GL. Non GL backs go out on the GL. Saying the drive was already his is an extremely weak excuse. GL duties will likely be split going forward and the team will not have a GL back. 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I’m sorry but that’s not how GL backs work.

GL backs come in on the GL. Non GL backs go out on the GL. Saying the drive was already his is an extremely weak excuse. GL duties will likely be split going forward and the team will not have a GL back. 

They will be split, to a degree. If there's a pass interference in the end zone to end the first quarter, my money's on Darrel being in there. 

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4 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

They will be split, to a degree. If there's a pass interference in the end zone to end the first quarter, my money's on Darrel being in there. 

 

I don't understand this assumption.  McCoy's TD against Detroit came in almost exactly the situation you referenced but reversed.  It was McCoy who replaced Williams after a penalty took them to the 2 yard line.  

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By midseason, assuming he stays healthy, I think McCoy is the guy in the game at the end there.  Pass pro is huge and they were down so they put Darrel there, but once McCoy knows all the protections, it should be him.

I still think they will keep McCoy fresh, but that means he will be giving up snaps earlier in the game.

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Everyone arguing semantics at this point. McCoy is clearly the name to own in the backfield if no injuries. I do not think he will ever be a bellcow but he take 60-65% of snaps at some point in the season. Here are some facts to support my theory:
 

1. McCoy has been on KC for less than a month. He is still learning the system

2. He has a bad ankle that has limited his practicing/learning/trust building in the system

3. Snap count/share is slowly increasing 29% > 40% > 38% > 46%

4. He is RB14 in .5PPR despite joining the team a week before the season started. We are currently witnessing what is likely his floor.

5. McCoy is far and away the best rusher on the team. In limited attempts:
Mccoy 5.4 YPC ; 2.65 YCO/ATT ; .1 AVT/ATT

Darrel 4.4 YPC ; 1.59 YCO/ATT ; .06 AVT/ATT

Damien 1.5 YPC ; 1.82 YCO/ATT ; .23 AVT/ ATT

YCO= Yards After Contact per Attempt ; AVT= Tackles Avoided per Attempt

6. Week 4 against the Lions McCoy posted his highest weekly Pass Block rating of the season via PFF. This tells me McCoy is getting comfortable in the new system. 

7. For receiving, the RB's are much closer

Yds/Target

Mccoy 7.1 yrds/tgt
Damien 7.91 yds/tgt
Darrel 10 yrds/tgt

Sample size is still an issue for receiving with the RBs but Darrel has the most efficient receiving numbers and the best pass blocking grade via PFF. Damien and McCoy have had similar efficiency.

8. #SHADYDAGOAT

I think ultimately McCoy is taking 60-65% of snaps with Darrel as the change of pace/ 3rd down back. 
 

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11 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Assuming Damien returns this week I feel like McCoy is the only safe start in this backfield, but even that's questionable. Hopefully we don't have a full blown committee. 

 

Reid already said back in Aug it will be a RBBC like he used in the early 2000s in Philly. That was Westbrook, Staley and a couple JAGs I believe, and they went to 4 straight NCF championship games 2001-2004 and the SB in 2004. He's been pretty much splitting work between 2 backs this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him using 3 when Damien is back. Im jumping ship on this backfield next week. None of these guys are as good as Hunt and Mahomes throws way too much to support 3 RBs. Its bad enough as is now. McCoy was the starter and the obvious choice but Darrel outscored him the last two weeks. Add in a 3rd back and forget it. You will need to roster all 3 and its anyones guess who will be the one to start. Its starting to reek of Belitricks. 

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3 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Assuming Damien returns this week I feel like McCoy is the only safe start in this backfield, but even that's questionable. Hopefully we don't have a full blown committee. 

 

While I can't say it's impossible, I don't see why it would go to a 3 headed monster.  Darrel and Damien have overlapping skill sets and neither is as good as McCoy as a runner.  The only argument would be to keep McCoy fresh, but he's only getting like 13-15 touches now...how much fresher do you want him?  I don't think he's hurt anymore either.

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2 hours ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

So lame, I bet on this guy in the draft, was excited about him as the season grew, and ready for him to be my RB2, but Andy ain't havin' it. Still tempted to roll him out in RB2/Flex, but definitely nervous to do so hahaa

 

That's not Andy's fault lol. Shady has been a fine RB2 / Flex besides week 2 where he got injured. He can maintain this production in a timeshare, evidenced by what he's already done, and looking like it's going to stay that way. You could def do worse at Flex. 

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2 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

While I can't say it's impossible, I don't see why it would go to a 3 headed monster.  Darrel and Damien have overlapping skill sets and neither is as good as McCoy as a runner.  The only argument would be to keep McCoy fresh, but he's only getting like 13-15 touches now...how much fresher do you want him?  I don't think he's hurt anymore either.

 

Limited at practice again today- hes definitely still nursing that sprained ankle.  But don’t despair...Shady’s a wardog and he manages through injuries.  He misses quarters not games.  There’s not a chance big red would keep his fave rb on the bench with a game in the balance late unless he just can’t go.  

That said...I don’t know if he becomes a workhorse whenever this ankle injury passes.  It’s only week 5 and they have little reason to run him into the ground before their playoff run even starts.  

For this week it sounds like we can expect more of the same 10-15 touches.. with the other backs largely handling second half work. 

    

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