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LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook


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Another interesting stat-nugget re: McCoy. Not bad for a 31 year old nursing an ankle sprain:

 

LeSean McCoy (KC) has rushed for 10+ yards on 5 of his 24 carries (20.8%) on 1st down this season -- best of 34 qualified NFL RBs in NFL; League Avg: 9.8%

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High stakes leagues have the same losers, just with more money.

Duke Johnson owners right now..  

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7 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Another interesting stat-nugget re: McCoy. Not bad for a 31 year old nursing an ankle sprain:

 

LeSean McCoy (KC) has rushed for 10+ yards on 5 of his 24 carries (20.8%) on 1st down this season -- best of 34 qualified NFL RBs in NFL; League Avg: 9.8%

What is the qualifier for this stat?

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Chiefs won't run Shady into the ground. They need him as healthy as possible down the stretch. That said, what Shady lacks in pure volume compared to typical top tier RBs, he makes up for it being in the highest scoring offense. As a Shady owner I don't want him to be a 20+ touch horse and eventually break down in November or December.

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9 hours ago, Mr.STD said:

Just wait until Reid starts keeping Mccoy on the field for passing downs, people's heads are gonna explode.

Lol. Unfortunately I just don't see it happening. 

I view McCoy as a relatively high floor low ceiling guy. Which is essentially all you can ask from a low-end RB2. 

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Lol. Unfortunately I just don't see it happening. 

I view McCoy as a relatively high floor low ceiling guy. Which is essentially all you can ask from a low-end RB2. 

 

I don't think he's gonna be used like Zeke, but he's too good of a receiving threat to be taken off the field for every 3rd down/hurry up. Reid is slowly increasing his role, and in a few weeks I think we are gonna see McCoy getting better opportunities in passing situations. 

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6 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Lol. Unfortunately I just don't see it happening. 

I view McCoy as a relatively high floor low ceiling guy. Which is essentially all you can ask from a low-end RB2. 

 

I think he's better than that.  He's currently the #18 overall RB, which is right in the middle of RB2.  Considering he was dinged up and sharing carries, there is room for even better production.  He has more upside than your average RB2, even if it's just because he'll be healthier.  He's producing these numbers on a bum ankle.

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It’s apparent to me by now that his workload will be capped at 10-15 touches no matter who is or is not active, and I’m ok with it. Drafted him super late and he’s now an every week flex at minimum, I’ll call that a win

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1 hour ago, Mr.STD said:

"I don't think he's gonna be used like Zeke, but he's too good of a receiving threat to be taken off the field for every 3rd down/hurry up. Reid is slowly increasing his role, and in a few weeks I think we are gonna see McCoy getting better opportunities in passing situations." 

 

We happened to get the Detroit game and I was really impressed. Reid & his staff are brilliant & McCoy knows his role precisely. I didn't see him fight for one single yard more than what was there. When they need a guy to go out there & bang, Darrel Williams can give them that. The instant McCoy senses those big bodies are converging upon him, he gets his @$$ on the ground! It's football, of course he gets hit, but he's not taking any more punishment than what's necessary. He could end up on the IR next week, but it won't be due to them misusing him.    

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At this point people have to realize that Shady is no 3 down workhorse anymore. Gets dinged up a lot. He embraces the pain and hardly misses a game, but for the sake of keeping up his efficiency and him being fresh late in the season/playoffs, it's better to limit his role while still leading the KC backfield in touches.

He can absolutely produce good RB2 numbers with just 50% of the KC backfield touches, and odds are he can do it over the course of 16 games. I actually like his ceiling as well, as some have said the ceiling is low. Especially when you view him as RB2 his ceiling in that offense is great.

Andy Reid would be dumb to make him a 3 down workhorse only to watch him crumble when the games start to matter, considering the Chiefs are a near-lock for 1 of the 2 top seeds.

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People keep saying that McCoy has had a month and should know the playbook inside and out, but even Andy Reid indicated that he's not there yet.  Once he's there, he should be in the game longer, especially in the passing game.

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"With the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated season on the line, they turned not to Patrick Mahomes — or even six-time Pro Bowler LeSean McCoy — but former undrafted free agent Darrel Williams.

Williams scored the game-winning touchdown with 23 seconds left to give the Chiefs the 34-30 victory against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Williams got the call because he has a better grasp of the Chiefs’ passing scheme than McCoy right now. He signed with Kansas City as an undrafted free agent in 2018, making this his second season in Andy Reid’s intricate offensive system. McCoy was signed just before the 2019 regular season, though he played for Reid from 2009 to 2012 with the Philadelphia Eagles.

“Darrel is a little more familiar with the protections,” Reid said. “They’re different from what LeSean had done in Philly. He’s getting caught up in that area.”"

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17 minutes ago, frog34 said:

At this point people have to realize that Shady is no 3 down workhorse anymore. Gets dinged up a lot. He embraces the pain and hardly misses a game, but for the sake of keeping up his efficiency and him being fresh late in the season/playoffs, it's better to limit his role while still leading the KC backfield in touches.

He can absolutely produce good RB2 numbers with just 50% of the KC backfield touches, and odds are he can do it over the course of 16 games. I actually like his ceiling as well, as some have said the ceiling is low. Especially when you view him as RB2 his ceiling in that offense is great.

Andy Reid would be dumb to make him a 3 down workhorse only to watch him crumble when the games start to matter, considering the Chiefs are a near-lock for 1 of the 2 top seeds.

 

Who said he'd be a 3 down "workhorse"

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5 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

 

Who said he'd be a 3 down "workhorse"

 

Yeah, dunno where anyone gets that.  The 3 down workhorse is basically extinct.

These are the RBs with the highest snap count % in the league so far -

Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct ▴ Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct
22-C.McCaffrey CAR RB 272 272 98.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
26-L.Bell NYJ RB 184 184 96.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
27-L.Fournette JAX RB 240 240 90.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
31-D.Johnson ARI RB 232 232 80.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

I dunno how they got the percentages with the Total Snaps equal to Off snaps, but I'm gonna assume that's a website error and that the percentages are correct.

I didn't want to paste a long table, but there are 6 RB's in the 70's.  Kamara is at 76%.  Zeke is at 72%.  Everyone else is in the 60's or lower.  This includes some big names that are getting a ton of work, such as Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, and Derrick Henry.

Ultimate it's touches that count, not snaps, but outside of CMC, Le'veon, and Fournette, there's no RBs who are on the field all game.

McCoy's snap count % sits at 38.7%.  If that moves up to 50% with a comparable rise in touches, he's going to be higher than the #18 overall RB.

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14 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Yeah, dunno where anyone gets that.  The 3 down workhorse is basically extinct.

These are the RBs with the highest snap count % in the league so far -

Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct ▴ Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct
22-C.McCaffrey CAR RB 272 272 98.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
26-L.Bell NYJ RB 184 184 96.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
27-L.Fournette JAX RB 240 240 90.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
31-D.Johnson ARI RB 232 232 80.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

I dunno how they got the percentages with the Total Snaps equal to Off snaps, but I'm gonna assume that's a website error and that the percentages are correct.

I didn't want to paste a long table, but there are 6 RB's in the 70's.  Kamara is at 76%.  Zeke is at 72%.  Everyone else is in the 60's or lower.  This includes some big names that are getting a ton of work, such as Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, and Derrick Henry.

Ultimate it's touches that count, not snaps, but outside of CMC, Le'veon, and Fournette, there's no RBs who are on the field all game.

McCoy's snap count % sits at 38.7%.  If that moves up to 50% with a comparable rise in touches, he's going to be higher than the #18 overall RB.

 

Over the last couple of weeks it looks like Chubb will soon be added to the 3 down back list, and obviously Saquan when healthy.

Since Mccoys been getting early down work, the only real place left for him to get to 50% of touches is either getting some 3rd down passing work and some hurry up offense work. I agree that 50% is probably where Shady averages at the end of the season, and that is plenty of opportunity to be a high end RB2 that hits RB1 numbers on some weeks. If he can get 60% if the work he will be an RB1. 

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Just now, Mr.STD said:

 

Over the last couple of weeks it looks like Chubb will soon be added to the 3 down back list, and obviously Saquan when healthy.

Since Mccoys been getting early down work, the only real place left for him to get to 50% of touches is either getting some 3rd down passing work and some hurry up offense work. I agree that 50% is probably where Shady averages at the end of the season, and that is plenty of opportunity to be a high end RB2 that hits RB1 numbers on some weeks. If he can get 60% if the work he will be an RB1. 

 

Based on one of my posts above, it sounds like he will be getting more passing work once he gets the protections down.  Reid was asked why McCoy was not in the game at the end and that was his response.  McCoy is catching up on the protection schemes.  I expect him to be getting more work there.

McCoy's upper limit is likely some split where he's getting most of the early down work and being spelled there, and then passing down work that isn't 3rd and long or 2 minute drill.  In 3rd and long or 2 minute, the RB is in there pretty much to block, and I doubt KC will see any value in having McCoy get creamed by a linebacker when they have Darrel or Damien to take a beating.

I don't see him getting any more work than that.  He's not going to take every early down run, and he's not going to be in on obvious passing downs.  But this still leaves maybe 60-70% of the workload as a ceiling, if this is where he ends up.

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I keep seeing the Reid quote about McCoy not being in there because he doesn't know the protections just yet. What's he gonna say, Darrel is the better and more durable GL back? Those comments are absolutely meaningless in terms of speculative usage moving forward. 

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8 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I keep seeing the Reid quote about McCoy not being in there because he doesn't know the protections just yet. What's he gonna say, Darrel is the better and more durable GL back? Those comments are absolutely meaningless in terms of speculative usage moving forward. 

 

Yes, Darrel is better than the likely HOF back Reid drafted and he's just afraid to say it. 

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2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I keep seeing the Reid quote about McCoy not being in there because he doesn't know the protections just yet. What's he gonna say, Darrel is the better and more durable GL back? Those comments are absolutely meaningless in terms of speculative usage moving forward. 

 

He can say what the Colts coach said when asked why Marlon Mack was not playing at end of the game.  He said Hines is the passing back / 2 minute guy.  Why lie if that's Darrel's role?

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2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I keep seeing the Reid quote about McCoy not being in there because he doesn't know the protections just yet. What's he gonna say, Darrel is the better and more durable GL back? Those comments are absolutely meaningless in terms of speculative usage moving forward. 

 

of course he's not going to say that, it's not even remotely true.  He's taken Darrell Williams off the field in favor of Shady in multiple GL situations over the previous 2 weeks.  Neither his comments nor his actual usage of the players is meaningless.  

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