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oswald737

Chris Paddack 2019 Outlook

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The Padres also fleeced the White Sox out of Tatis Jr in that James Shields Deal a month Before that Paddack Deal. So look on the bright side Marlins fans you aren't the only one who got owned by the Padres that year!

 

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10 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

The Padres also fleeced the White Sox out of Tatis Jr in that James Shields Deal a month Before that Paddack Deal. So look on the bright side Marlins fans you aren't the only one who got owned by the Padres that year!

 

Ironically the Sox are signing Tatis little brother in J2 so I think the padres end up signing Keuchel and trading him to the Sox in two yrs lol

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On 5/7/2019 at 9:18 AM, Golden Spikes said:

Yah overall cause of innings he’s not going to even get close to Docs rookie year. But he’s just as dominant

im a padre fan so I’m a little biased but I see a harder throwing Greg Maddux. Control is as good changeup is better but his fastball doesn’t move as much

 

thanks Marlins lol

imagine them with Paddack and Castillo (who the Padres also stole from them)

 

Maddux is kind of my comp as well. 

 

People forget maddux's breaking ball was average at best. 

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XFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.30) ... are we thinking he's going to overperform his peripherals for the 100 or so more innings he has this year?

 

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9 minutes ago, Overlord said:

XFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.30) ... are we thinking he's going to overperform his peripherals for the 100 or so more innings he has this year?

He'll definitely regress toward those numbers but I think he can outperform them a little bit. He hasn't given up a lot of hard contact (30.1% hard hit rate, 86.1 avg. exit velo per Statcast) and pitching in San Diego should help suppress HRs a little bit. I think an ERA right around 3 sounds fair.

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14 minutes ago, Overlord said:

XFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.30) ... are we thinking he's going to overperform his peripherals for the 100 or so more innings he has this year?

 

 

I have a theory (That I haven't taken the time to really dig deep on) that change up masters and guys with EXTREME speed differentiation between their fastballs and offspeed stuff beat their xfip and sierras more often than other pitchers.   Guys like Maddux, Johan, Greinke, etc.   That goes even more with guys with plus plus fastball command. 

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22 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

He'll definitely regress toward those numbers but I think he can outperform them a little bit. He hasn't given up a lot of hard contact (30.1% hard hit rate, 86.1 avg. exit velo per Statcast) and pitching in San Diego should help suppress HRs a little bit. I think an ERA right around 3 sounds fair.

 

San Diego hasn't really been suppressing homers all that much since they brought the fences.  Fairly neutral I think.

If you think he ends up with a 3 ERA, when it's at 1.47 right now over 50ish innings, while I suck at math that means he has a 3.75 ERA over the next 100 or so innings he likely has left to pitch this year?  Sounds fairly realistic.  

 

18 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I have a theory (That I haven't taken the time to really dig deep on) that change up masters and guys with EXTREME speed differentiation between their fastballs and offspeed stuff beat their xfip and sierras more often than other pitchers.   Guys like Maddux, Johan, Greinke, etc.   That goes even more with guys with plus plus fastball command. 

 

He's outperforming his SIERA by 1.83 right now.

Maddux lifetime outperformed it by .78.  

Santana lifetime outperformed it by .16.  

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Hamels is another strong changeup guy that consistently outperformed his FIP, interesting theory. 

@96mnc, can we expect a full write up in the morning?

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47 minutes ago, Overlord said:

 

San Diego hasn't really been suppressing homers all that much since they brought the fences.  Fairly neutral I think.

If you think he ends up with a 3 ERA, when it's at 1.47 right now over 50ish innings, while I suck at math that means he has a 3.75 ERA over the next 100 or so innings he likely has left to pitch this year?  Sounds fairly realistic.  

 

 

He's outperforming his SIERA by 1.83 right now.

Maddux lifetime outperformed it by .78.  

Santana lifetime outperformed it by .16.  

We’re comparing lifetime performance to performance over ~80-100 IP?!

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his control really is Maddux like, not just as in not walking guys, but where his strikes are it leads to continual weak contact

Maddux I believe never really worked above 93 and that was only early on

Paddack is touching 97 regularly and dialed up 98 a few times, he has the same mentality as Maddux as well.  With his curveball continually improving, and his minor league numbers suggest hes a 2.50 type ERA guy imo, he might have a season or 2 above 3, but this guy is THE guy that others will compare to in the future

I would go so far as to say, going into next year I have no problem making him a top 5 SP off the board

 

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2 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

his control really is Maddux like, not just as in not walking guys, but where his strikes are it leads to continual weak contact

Maddux I believe never really worked above 93 and that was only early on

Paddack is touching 97 regularly and dialed up 98 a few times, he has the same mentality as Maddux as well.  With his curveball continually improving, and his minor league numbers suggest hes a 2.50 type ERA guy imo, he might have a season or 2 above 3, but this guy is THE guy that others will compare to in the future

I would go so far as to say, going into next year I have no problem making him a top 5 SP off the board

 

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR7vy9dVafOaBs0cNYUaEj

 

Edited by jb_power
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18 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

The Padres also fleeced the White Sox out of Tatis Jr in that James Shields Deal a month Before that Paddack Deal. So look on the bright side Marlins fans you aren't the only one who got owned by the Padres that year!

 

funny thing is if anyone questions Prellers evaluation, we just have to say Tatis, Paddack, but also they stole Castillo from them as well, unfortunately they gave him back after Rea blew out his elbow in his 2nd game there, despite having ZERO medical history suggesting the Padres hid anything

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3 hours ago, Overlord said:

 

San Diego hasn't really been suppressing homers all that much since they brought the fences.  Fairly neutral I think.

If you think he ends up with a 3 ERA, when it's at 1.47 right now over 50ish innings, while I suck at math that means he has a 3.75 ERA over the next 100 or so innings he likely has left to pitch this year?  Sounds fairly realistic.  

 

 

He's outperforming his SIERA by 1.83 right now.

Maddux lifetime outperformed it by .78.  

Santana lifetime outperformed it by .16.  

 

Gun to head I say he's a 2.7 era guy ROS.

Edited by 96mnc

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Here's a fun stat: 59% of Paddack's completed innings are 1-2-3 innings. The league average is 37%. 

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17 minutes ago, whips02 said:

Does he get 2 starts next week?

Tough to say...I am not sure if sending down Quantrill means the 6 man rotation is temporarily scarped? IF so then he would likely pick up a 2nd start next sun at home against Pirates on his regular schedule.

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5%  HR/FB miiiiiiight not be sustainable long-term

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11 minutes ago, sagrim said:

He has Kershaw and the Dodgers, is this any easy sit?

Easy sit for Kershaw. lol...……….just kidding. You have to start Paddack no matter who he faces. 

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1 hour ago, sagrim said:

He has Kershaw and the Dodgers, is this any easy sit?

You never sit Chris "cy" Paddack 

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Prediction

7 IP 0 ER -3 hits, 21 Ks.

Scorer awards him negative 3 hits due to utter dominance. 92 pitches, 41 swinging strikes!

Only thing that held him back was the Padres controlling his pitch count.

Rest of season, I would be shocked if he ends up with an ERA above 2. WHIP will probably be around 0.50.

Most dominant rookie season ever.

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