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oswald737

Chris Paddack 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Prediction

7 IP 0 ER -3 hits, 21 Ks.

Scorer awards him negative 3 hits due to utter dominance. 92 pitches, 41 swinging strikes!

Only thing that held him back was the Padres controlling his pitch count.

Rest of season, I would be shocked if he ends up with an ERA above 2. WHIP will probably be around 0.50.

Most dominant rookie season ever.

 

That's way too many swinging strikes.  With how cutting edge they are, I actually see several of the Dodgers implementing the new "intentional strikeout" policy.  No pitches need be thrown, they just signal that they are striking out and stay in the dugout.  Minimizes injury risk and increases pace of play, win-win.

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FYI:  Paddack will take his next turn in Monday's series opener against the Diamondbacks, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.

For the first time all season, the rookie looked mortal while taking the loss Tuesday, serving up six runs (three earned) on five hits and a walk while lasting just 4.2 innings. Though Paddack would be available on four days' rest Sunday against the Pirates, he'll be denied a two-start week while the Padres stick to the plan they've followed all season and give him a fifth day off between turns.

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1 hour ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

So apparently the only way he gets 2 starts in a week is when they play 7 games and he starts on a Monday. What a joke 

What did you expect from a rookie who threw a grand total of 90 innings last year? If you're this upset about this non-issue, you're in for a real treat when he gets shut down for the year in August

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22 hours ago, cs3 said:

What did you expect from a rookie who threw a grand total of 90 innings last year? If you're this upset about this non-issue, you're in for a real treat when he gets shut down for the year in August

Not every rookie pitches every 6th day. Case in point Domingo German

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Trying to get a big picture on this guy.

 

Is he a sell high, rookie who is exceeding expectations?

Or is he a future Ace that is showing what he can do long term.

 

i get that he will have an inning limit. Fine, milk it while he is putting up numbers. But for the dynasty / long term managers, does his first two months scream sell high!

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1 minute ago, octapuss said:

Trying to get a big picture on this guy.

 

Is he a sell high, rookie who is exceeding expectations?

Or is he a future Ace that is showing what he can do long term.

 

i get that he will have an inning limit. Fine, milk it while he is putting up numbers. But for the dynasty / long term managers, does his first two months scream sell high!

 

3.37 SIERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.97 ERA.

Probably has pitched a third or so of the innings he'll pitch this year. 
 

In redraft, seems like a "sell-high" to me if you can obtain a front line starter that will go 200ish innings or an All Star bat for him.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Overlord said:

 

3.37 SIERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.97 ERA.

Probably has pitched a third or so of the innings he'll pitch this year. 
 

In redraft, seems like a "sell-high" to me if you can obtain a front line starter that will go 200ish innings or an All Star bat for him.  

 

Good insight.

 

How about big picture? Is this guy a long term Ace from the word go? In keeper leagues he might be one of the few that you hold and enjoy? Just wondering how you all see him.

 

Not worried about the innings limit.

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In dynasty/keepers he is one of the most valuable pitchers out there (though I will always rank "big bats" above starting pitchers).  Well nigh untradeable on a pitching-for-pitching, 1:1 basis, except for a handful of other young starters.  

He's already pitching well and barring injury (which is a risk for every pitcher every single day) he'll probably only get better.  I love the division/league, and he passes every eyeball test.  

All systems go in dynasty/keeper. 

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40 minutes ago, octapuss said:

Good insight.

 

How about big picture? Is this guy a long term Ace from the word go? In keeper leagues he might be one of the few that you hold and enjoy? Just wondering how you all see him.

 

Not worried about the innings limit.

long term ACE potential top 3 starter without doubt imo

https://www.mlb.com/video/leiter-on-paddack

could even be pushed more when Gore arrives and the Padres have their Maddux/Glavine for the next 6 years at least

Edited by Golden Spikes

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Something doesn't jive in the stats. FG shows his hard hit rate as 40%+ and his FB% is almost 40. Yet he's only allowed 4 homers and barely given up a hit. 

The 16% LD rate helps but still.

So are most of the hard contact made on grounders?

 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

In dynasty/keepers he is one of the most valuable pitchers out there (though I will always rank "big bats" above starting pitchers).  Well nigh untradeable on a pitching-for-pitching, 1:1 basis, except for a handful of other young starters.  

He's already pitching well and barring injury (which is a risk for every pitcher every single day) he'll probably only get better.  I love the division/league, and he passes every eyeball test.  

All systems go in dynasty/keeper. 

I understand the rationale for this, but with the current state of pitching I'd probably lean towards pitchers. Paddack to me is worth more than young, high-potential bats such as Soto, Robles or Alonso, for example. It seems that breakout bats are always coming up, but landing a solid pitcher is almost like winning the lottery in this day and age. In my 14-team league only 3-4 teams have solid pitching staffs, and these staffs might only have 3-4 SP3+ level pitchers. It's incredible how solid, ace-level pitchers are so rare these days.

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I just wish he'd break out that uncle charlie MORE...it grades as a good pitch and he is gonna need it in the near future!

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I just wish he'd break out that uncle charlie MORE...it grades as a good pitch and he is gonna need it in the near future!

I am sure he will, he still isnt that comfortable with it I think, but yah it grades out excellent

97 fastball

84 killer change

12-6 curve 

with his location hes going to be special as he is proving already

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Just saw the news that todays start against the Jays has been pushed back to the Yankees on Wednesday. He must really be sore to pass up a Jays start. Hope it really is a 3 day pushback issue

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Not a great showing, but still somewhat impressed because this bad outing still left with good K's and a WHIP that isn't disastrous.  It's not a H2H week killer like when some SP's implode. 

Might try and kick some times in dynasty leagues to see if there's any weakness after this start.

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15 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Yahoo showed his FB velocity around 92, 93. I thought he's higher.

He averaged 94...hit 96, so pretty normal but not quite as high as a few dominant starts recently. Had plenty of whiffs (5) with FB and (6) with CH...busted out 17 curves today, which is def on the high side for him...

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this article sounds concerning.

https://nypost.com/2019/06/02/fantasy-owners-should-be-wary-when-it-comes-to-rookie-pitchers/

Quote

Over the first two months of the season, we’ve met young pitchers like Chris Paddack, Griffin Canning, Devin Smeltzer, Mitch Keller, Max Fried, Dakota Hudson and probably another dozen who have been called up and sent back down as quickly as they arrived. There are also plenty of names such as Forrest Whitley and Brent Honeywell who have yet to arrive but have fantasy prospectors salivating. Some have had success while others have not, and the highs and lows of owning a rookie pitcher in fantasy can be taxing.

There are a number of concerns you need to take into account when investing in a rookie pitcher. With the prevalence of pitch-counts and innings limits, you not only have to worry if your pitcher will go past five innings, but also about whether he’ll be available to you in August and September. Their shelf-life in a re-draft league can be very limited.

You also have to be concerned with each pitcher’s arsenal. Two-pitch hurlers rarely survive more than a handful of starts, as the league eventually catches up with them. Everyone has a fastball and one breaking pitch. But if your starter doesn’t have a strong change-up or lacks the command to consistently throw a cut-fastball or another breaking ball, big league hitters are going to catch onto them. On numerous occasions, you will see a rookie pitcher dominate in his first start, post average numbers in his second outing then get lit up in his third outing. Big league hitters have very long memories.

It’s not that you don’t want to invest in a rookie pitcher. You just have to be more selective in whom you invest. The stage is set for rookie hitters to succeed. For the pitchers, it’s easy to find success early on, but carrying through at a high level the rest of the way is much more difficult, and fantasy owners should take that into consideration.

 

according to fangraphs on the season he uses a fastball (93.9 MPH) 58.6% of the time, a changeup (83.8 MPH) 30.7% of the time, and a curveball (75.1 MPH) 10.8 % of the time.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=20099&position=P

 

Edited by SpecialFNK

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that's basically how it is every start. need 3 pitches and some type command to get through a lineup 3 times

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Ahh remember that ROY talk?  What a clown.  Alonso’s got this. (Or Riley).

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