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Frankie Montas 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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Gets Cleveland at home today and initial instinct was a no brainer start. Then I dove in a bit more. 

While he's been better v LHP this year (.710 OPS) , he's historically had serious trouble with them (.922 OPS career). The Indians lineup isn't a Murderers' Row by any means, but they do have the ability to go 1 through 8 with everyone LHH / SH.

That has me leaning towards keeping him on my bench today. Especially if Profar's in the lineup. 

Does anyone have any thoughts? Any insights on why in a SSS (77 PAs) he appears to have improved v LHH this year?

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Play him. Look what Kikuchi did against the Indians.

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3 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

Gets Cleveland at home today and initial instinct was a no brainer start. Then I dove in a bit more. 

While he's been better v LHP this year (.710 OPS) , he's historically had serious trouble with them (.922 OPS career). The Indians lineup isn't a Murderers' Row by any means, but they do have the ability to go 1 through 8 with everyone LHH / SH.

That has me leaning towards keeping him on my bench today. Especially if Profar's in the lineup. 

Does anyone have any thoughts? Any insights on why in a SSS (77 PAs) he appears to have improved v LHH this year?

 

His new split finger pitch.

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710 vs 656 OPS LH vs. RH.  18:3 K:BB ratio.

CLE hitters have great numbers against him though. (25 ABs)

Still, I am rolling him out there.

Kinda wondering if his best future may be in the pen...  check out his performance difference first, second, third time through the lineup.

Edited by papasmurf

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Feels like he’s on verge of a total shellacking.  He seemingly averts disaster time and time again.  He can’t keep giving up so many hits or he’ll have a snowman posted soon.  Still rolling with him but my excitement has been tempered a bit.  

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I can't watch his games, but based on MLB.com's live zone display, his command is mediocre. He often catches too much of the plate.

If you count his unearned runs, his ERA would be 4, which is about how well he has pitched. (xFIP is 3.83) I don't think he has grossly outperformed his peripherals. He is a wormkiller so he will be helped by DPs.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Feels like he’s on verge of a total shellacking.  He seemingly averts disaster time and time again.  He can’t keep giving up so many hits or he’ll have a snowman posted soon.  Still rolling with him but my excitement has been tempered a bit.  

Have to agree with this 100% - I've owned him since watching him his 1st start of the year and have seen several starts since.. I'm waiting for the correction any moment now.

It's not all a sham.. he def has "stuff", but his numbers are a little ahead of reality at this point for sure.

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Tough critics.  

K/9: 8.34, BB/9: 2.18, FIP: 3.27, XFIP: 3.63

46 hits allowed in 45 IP.  Zero HR allowed in his last 5 starts.

The Boston outing was his only bad start, and even then, only one earned run allowed (7 total).

Not exactly the 2019 version of Jakob Junis, whose peripherals stunk but he was somehow a good fantasy starter for the first 2-3 months last season.

 

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Just keeps on rolling... 

 

May end up with some Cy Young votes

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I think we’re all in a state of shock.  It also helps that the American League is largely a dumpster fire when it comes to offense.  The Yankees are handicapped.  The Red Sox and Astros are obviously formidable.  I’d think twice about starting him in Arlington, but I’d still do it.  I fear nobody else.  Even my own White Sox have glaring holes that can’t be covered up by Moncada/Abreu/Anderson alone.  It’s a great time to own someone like Montas.

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6 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

I think we’re all in a state of shock.  It also helps that the American League is largely a dumpster fire when it comes to offense.  The Yankees are handicapped.  The Red Sox and Astros are obviously formidable.  I’d think twice about starting him in Arlington, but I’d still do it.  I fear nobody else.  Even my own White Sox have glaring holes that can’t be covered up by Moncada/Abreu/Anderson alone.  It’s a great time to own someone like Montas.

You should.  Minnesota has a really good line-up and Tampa Bay is no push over on the hitting side any more.

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11 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

I think we’re all in a state of shock.  It also helps that the American League is largely a dumpster fire when it comes to offense.  The Yankees are handicapped.  The Red Sox and Astros are obviously formidable.  I’d think twice about starting him in Arlington, but I’d still do it.  I fear nobody else.  Even my own White Sox have glaring holes that can’t be covered up by Moncada/Abreu/Anderson alone.  It’s a great time to own someone like Montas.

 

You'll start him in Arlington? Have fun with 2.00 WHIP.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

You should.  Minnesota has a really good line-up and Tampa Bay is no push over on the hitting side any more.

 

I respect the Twins offense, and they’re top 5 by default in the AL (not saying much), but you have to admit that they are vastly overachieving right now.  Jorge Polanco has a 1.000 OPS in almost 200 AB.  Jason Castro has a 1.050 OPS.  Eddie Rosario has 13 HR already - he’s a 25-30 HR caliber player and he’s already halfway there?  Nelson Cruz continues to amaze, though.  He’s getting ready to turn 39 and his OPS is .850.  And CJ Cron is proving that last year what no fluke - he’s a legit .500 slugger.  Schoop is an underrated slugger as well.

In a slugging sense, it looks like an extremely, extremely poor man’s version of the 90s Texas Rangers or something when you stack up Rosario, Cruz, Cron, Sano, Schoop, etc.  Polanco slugging .600.  But lack of plate discipline is prevalent, and that is why I wouldn’t hesitate to start Montas against them.

I hope we’re not doing the Buxton thing again.

 

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1 hour ago, michaelai3 said:

 

You'll start him in Arlington? Have fun with 2.00 WHIP.

 

Pence, Forsythe, and Choo are currently .900 OPS players.  People look at the team stats and they’re like “Have fun with that 2.00 WHIP!”, but man, I’m just not buying it.

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he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs yet in any of his starts.

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Montas has really turned things around this year.  Last year he was a flame-thrower who couldn't really pitch, but this year he's done a better job at hitting spots and incorporating his new splitter into his repertoire.  The ability to throw gas definitely helps him get out of jams but he's still young and I think he can make even more progress.  I'm a buyer especially if he keeps limiting his walks. 

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That splitter....

.200 AVG/ .174 xAVG

.257 SLG/ .212 xSLG

.218 wOBA/ .194 xwOBA

39,5 K%

5,3 BB%

41,2 Whiff%

giphy.gif

 

 

Edited by Sine_cera
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pitches at home against the angels next week so, decent to good chance that he'll put up another good outing. i play in a pretty standard points league where frankie is currently outscoring berrios and scherzer. not bad for a WW pickup! 

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[...]

Dude looked good in the spring and added a split.

If he pitches to a sub-4 ERA going forward (from now to the end, not counting the innings he already threw) I'd be happy.

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