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Ryan Yarbrough 2019 Outlook


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He has started 5 games this year:   7/20: 6.0IP, PC 75 6/13: 6.0IP, PC 90 6/8: 7.2IP, PC 110 6/2: 7.0IP, PC 92 5/23: 7.1IP, PC 99   Not saying it is guaranteed

Pitching like a cy young candidate right now.

Yarbrough hasn't pitched less than six innings in any game he's started this season, totaling 34 innings across 5 starts. He's 2-2 in those games, with three QS. As a starter this year, he holds a 3.9

1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

what does Morton have to do with anything? Cole is pitching tonight, so don't expect a W, and the chances of a QS against the hottest team in baseball doesn't look too promising. I am sitting tonight, but good luck

 

Brought up Morton because Morton owners faced the same decision last night - whether to start him against the Astros.

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Definitely sitting him tonight against the Astros.  Like somebody else said, a Win is unlikely as well against Cole.  The Rays have enough trouble generating runs, but to do it again Cole would be shocking.

He has some really nice matchups still left though.

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Pitchers with 100+ IP with a lower EV against than Yar-bro:

Pitchers with 100+ IP with a lower hard hit% than Yar-bro:

How about woba?:

BB%:

WHIP: Justin Upton

xlg?: Sigh. 21st in MLB. What a bum!

 

However the Rays use him, by the end of the year he's going to give you a Kyle Hendricks type of line (other than QS) at a fraction of the cost. Forget strikeouts when this dude can give you 15 wins and great ratios. 0.87 WHIP! That's the sort of thing that vaults you in the winner's circle. Love this dude.

 

 

Edited by sleepysock
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4 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Pitchers with 100+ IP with a lower EV against than Yar-bro:

Pitchers with 100+ IP with a lower hard hit% than Yar-bro:

How about woba?:

BB%:

WHIP: Justin Upton

xlg?: Sigh. 21st in MLB. What a bum!

 

However the Rays use him, by the end of the year he's going to give you a Kyle Hendricks type of line (other than QS) at a fraction of the cost. Forget strikeouts when this dude can give you 15 wins and great ratios. 0.87 WHIP! That's the sort of thing that vaults you in the winner's circle. Love this dude.

 

 

 

I think he's firmly a starter now, or at least thats how hes been used the last two months. If were talking comps, hendricks is a good one, but to me, hes essentially a Ryu clone.

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Just now, NoHablaIngles said:

 

I think he's firmly a starter now, or at least thats how hes been used the last two months. If were talking comps, hendricks is a good one, but to me, hes essentially a Ryu clone.

Ryu is probably a tier above when healthy. Last 250IP or so he has been tossing like a first ballot HOFer..

I do wonder if Yar-bro sticks in the rotation for good next year. Will be interesting to see how that affects his value.

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37 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Ryu is probably a tier above when healthy. Last 250IP or so he has been tossing like a first ballot HOFer..

I do wonder if Yar-bro sticks in the rotation for good next year. Will be interesting to see how that affects his value.

 

Their peripherals are nearly identical. Ks, BBs and Hrs etc.

And even that comp may handicap Yarbrough, hes been a completely different guy since coming back from the minor leagues and his slow start.

Of course, Ryu has a larger sample size but yarbrough was no slouch last year either. And yarbrough is younger and doesnt have the injury concerns that Ryu has. For 2020, i have them ranked neck and neck.

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The longer history of dominance + pitching in the NL West -- for the Dodgers -- puts Ryu in a tier above for me. Going into 2020 he's a tier 2/3 guy (a la Greinke, Giolito, Luis Castillo) whereas as much as I love Yar I need to see one more year like this before I slot him into the top 15-25 area with those type of dudes. I think he's on the bottom of the next tier with pitchers like Berrios and Hendricks and Bauer.

That said, he really is passing both the eye test and the under the hood test this year, particularly after the rough start he had to the year. I will say if the recent uptake in K% is real then yeah, I'd push him up a good bit. Huge difference between 7K/9 and 9K/9.

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For all those who I warned about starting Yarby, I applaud you for your courageous efforts. You perserverence and trust in Yarby paid off. I, on the other hand, started Cole, sat Yarby, and watched a QS float by on my bench, while, although Cole K'd everyone, couldn't snag a QS. Summary: I hate fantasy baseball.

 

Yarby looked good though, could (should) definitely be a solidified starter next year. Will be curious to his innings limit or if they stick with bulking.

Edited by MSkibisky
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