Stonej14

Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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19 hours ago, Mr_Baller said:

I like Action Jackson. But I am going to sit him for Russ Wilson this week.

I have both qbs also, and have played the wrong one every week, but one. It's a shame people in my league refuse to trade

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Just now, philnutz said:

I have both qbs also, and have played the wrong one every week, but one. It's a shame people in my league refuse to trade

That's totally the case! I mean Lamar is THE fantasy QB. He is a top 5 choice every week for sure.

I am mad because of refused trades of other league members.

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If you have a stud option to pivot to (Rodgers/Russ/etc) than I would go that route.  However, no chance I'm benching Lamar for anything less.  Start your studs.  

While we don't expect this to be a shoot out by any means, NE is only favored by 3.5 points, in Baltimore, with a 45 point O/U.  Not a massive O/U, but certainly in the middle.  Right now I see only 5 games with a higher O/U, depending on what the line for KC/MIN comes out as based off Mahomes.  Vegas expects the game to be somewhere around 24-21 New England.  If we bank on Baltimore scoring 3 TDs, I would bet my house Jackson is involved in them somehow.  

Also, here's the list of QBs who played NE so far:

Ben Roethlisberger - got hurt

Fitzmagic

Luke Falk

Josh Allen

Case Keenum

Dan Jones

Sam Darnold

Baker Mayfield

Wooooooooooooof that is an UGLY list and no one on this list can even come close to Lamar's rushing ability.  Josh Allen is as close as it gets, and he was able to get a rushing TD.  I'm not expecting a monster Lamar game, but I'm not benching him for anything except Rodgers, Russ, etc.

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I see Lamar running for his life this game and being semi successful.  I thought Josh Allen was going to run for his life but he tried throwing it...haa......just stop and run for your life Lamar. 

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NE hasn't played that many strong passing teams, but they've given up a maximum of 11.8 points to any QB -- and that was Josh Allen who has some ability to run. 

Oakland has given up multiple TD all but 2 weeks, and the lowest point total they've allowed is 12.4. They're allowing a 67.8% completion rate, and have given up 19 passing TD to only 3 INT. They've played stronger offenses than NE, and stronger QB, to be sure. But any team with a competent passing attack--and Detroit is that to be sure--has carved them up. And with their RB woes, Detroit will rely on that passing attack.

 

If you have Stafford, I think it makes sense to play him over Lamar this week. Lamar *might* be the one who is capable of shredding the NE defense, but he also might get bottled up. Stafford is more than a safe bet against Oakland. If he doesn't score >15 points, I'll be surprised. 

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We all agree this is a matchup of the year in terms of top defense bit against poor opponents against a multi threat Qb Who has never faced a defense like this.

 

So many unknowns though we know Patriots scheme to take away top options. I see them scheming to play most players close to line of scrimmage with a spy on Lamar and man coverage on Hollywood.

 

For Ravens to beat this they will need to find a away to take some deep shots to Hollywood early and often to force new england to move safeties back or risk a homerun. I also see a lot of misdirection RPO to freeze the line backers and allow Lamar to find a crease to run in.

I think Lamar could actually have a big day if he connects early on a deep shot or 2 or really struggle if he doesn't. So more boom bust and less safe floor than previously.

Curious which QB you would start over him this week.

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27 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

We all agree this is a matchup of the year in terms of top defense bit against poor opponents against a multi threat Qb Who has never faced a defense like this.

 

So many unknowns though we know Patriots scheme to take away top options. I see them scheming to play most players close to line of scrimmage with a spy on Lamar and man coverage on Hollywood.

 

For Ravens to beat this they will need to find a away to take some deep shots to Hollywood early and often to force new england to move safeties back or risk a homerun. I also see a lot of misdirection RPO to freeze the line backers and allow Lamar to find a crease to run in.

I think Lamar could actually have a big day if he connects early on a deep shot or 2 or really struggle if he doesn't. So more boom bust and less safe floor than previously.

Curious which QB you would start over him this week.

 

Lamar has been great but it's really all hinged on his legs.  Take away his running and we looking at a guy that's basically equal to about Derek Carr with his passing stats...And that isn't saying much.  So we probably need him to run for nearly 100 yards and a TD in order to have a solid game in this one.  The odds sure seem long that he does it with his arm based upon all the stats that we have to go on.

If he even scores 15 points it would be the most NE has allowed all season.  And NE hasn't even allowed 2 TD's to an offense in a game all season.

I've personally always just struggled banking on QB's to score points with their legs.  I always kinda view those points as a nice bonus but not something you want to rely on.  I know Lamar is a different breed but still not comfortable with him against really good defenses.  He struggled against the Steelers earlier this year and this Pats defense is probably better than that defense.

All that said, there probably still aren't all that many QB's I'd consider over Lamar this week.  I'd say Wilson, Rodgers, Watson, Prescott, Stafford....And that's probably about it.  I'm not sure I'd trust any of the other lesser options as I'd rather lose with my stud than really stretch things too far playing like Minshew or something.

My personal debate is Stafford and I'm 50/50.  I kinda think Staffords floor might be Lamar's ceiling this week though so leaning toward Stafford.  I'm usually a start your stud guy though so I'm struggling with it a little and still might change my mind lol.

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13 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Lamar has been great but it's really all hinged on his legs.  Take away his running and we looking at a guy that's basically equal to about Derek Carr with his passing stats...And that isn't saying much.  So we probably need him to run for nearly 100 yards and a TD in order to have a solid game in this one.  The odds sure seem long that he does it with his arm based upon all the stats that we have to go on.

If he even scores 15 points it would be the most NE has allowed all season.  And NE hasn't even allowed 2 TD's to an offense in a game all season.

I've personally always just struggled banking on QB's to score points with their legs.  I always kinda view those points as a nice bonus but not something you want to rely on.  I know Lamar is a different breed but still not comfortable with him against really good defenses.  He struggled against the Steelers earlier this year and this Pats defense is probably better than that defense.

All that said, there probably still aren't all that many QB's I'd consider over Lamar this week.  I'd say Wilson, Rodgers, Watson, Prescott, Stafford....And that's probably about it.  I'm not sure I'd trust any of the other lesser options as I'd rather lose with my stud than really stretch things too far playing like Minshew or something.

My personal debate is Stafford and I'm 50/50.  I kinda think Staffords floor might be Lamar's ceiling this week though so leaning toward Stafford.  I'm usually a start your stud guy though so I'm struggling with it a little and still might change my mind lol.

Im in the same boat. I'm going Stafford unless I need BIG points after the 1pm games.  My opponents entire team plays at 930am or 1pm. 

Lamar has a chance to shock the world Sunday Night but the chances are very slim against a Scary Scary Defense. I really want to play him but I'm scared of the dud

 

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22 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Lamar has been great but it's really all hinged on his legs.  Take away his running and we looking at a guy that's basically equal to about Derek Carr with his passing stats...And that isn't saying much.  So we probably need him to run for nearly 100 yards and a TD in order to have a solid game in this one.  The odds sure seem long that he does it with his arm based upon all the stats that we have to go on.

If he even scores 15 points it would be the most NE has allowed all season.  And NE hasn't even allowed 2 TD's to an offense in a game all season.

I've personally always just struggled banking on QB's to score points with their legs.  I always kinda view those points as a nice bonus but not something you want to rely on.  I know Lamar is a different breed but still not comfortable with him against really good defenses.  He struggled against the Steelers earlier this year and this Pats defense is probably better than that defense.

All that said, there probably still aren't all that many QB's I'd consider over Lamar this week.  I'd say Wilson, Rodgers, Watson, Prescott, Stafford....And that's probably about it.  I'm not sure I'd trust any of the other lesser options as I'd rather lose with my stud than really stretch things too far playing like Minshew or something.

My personal debate is Stafford and I'm 50/50.  I kinda think Staffords floor might be Lamar's ceiling this week though so leaning toward Stafford.  I'm usually a start your stud guy though so I'm struggling with it a little and still might change my mind lol.

Agree 100% with this list

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23 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Lamar has been great but it's really all hinged on his legs.  Take away his running and we looking at a guy that's basically equal to about Derek Carr with his passing stats...And that isn't saying much.  So we probably need him to run for nearly 100 yards and a TD in order to have a solid game in this one.  The odds sure seem long that he does it with his arm based upon all the stats that we have to go on.

If he even scores 15 points it would be the most NE has allowed all season.  And NE hasn't even allowed 2 TD's to an offense in a game all season.

I've personally always just struggled banking on QB's to score points with their legs.  I always kinda view those points as a nice bonus but not something you want to rely on.  I know Lamar is a different breed but still not comfortable with him against really good defenses.  He struggled against the Steelers earlier this year and this Pats defense is probably better than that defense.

All that said, there probably still aren't all that many QB's I'd consider over Lamar this week.  I'd say Wilson, Rodgers, Watson, Prescott, Stafford....And that's probably about it.  I'm not sure I'd trust any of the other lesser options as I'd rather lose with my stud than really stretch things too far playing like Minshew or something.

My personal debate is Stafford and I'm 50/50.  I kinda think Staffords floor might be Lamar's ceiling this week though so leaning toward Stafford.  I'm usually a start your stud guy though so I'm struggling with it a little and still might change my mind lol.

 

I just don't think Bill is going to allow Jackson to run for 100+. Could he run for 50? Possibly, but NE has a knack for taking away your greatest strength. They will force them to throw more than they want.

The more I think about this game the more I think it will be a slugfest / FG fest. Don't see a high ceiling in general on both teams. Something like 19-13 score.

I'm going where the wind would seem to be behind my sails with Stafford in what looks like it could be a 31-28 scorcher.

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15 hours ago, bwarbiany said:

NE hasn't played that many strong passing teams, but they've given up a maximum of 11.8 points to any QB -- and that was Josh Allen who has some ability to run. 

Oakland has given up multiple TD all but 2 weeks, and the lowest point total they've allowed is 12.4. They're allowing a 67.8% completion rate, and have given up 19 passing TD to only 3 INT. They've played stronger offenses than NE, and stronger QB, to be sure. But any team with a competent passing attack--and Detroit is that to be sure--has carved them up. And with their RB woes, Detroit will rely on that passing attack.

 

If you have Stafford, I think it makes sense to play him over Lamar this week. Lamar *might* be the one who is capable of shredding the NE defense, but he also might get bottled up. Stafford is more than a safe bet against Oakland. If he doesn't score >15 points, I'll be surprised. 

 

Didnt Mayfield just put up 14.6 against NE?  Not a much better result but still if Lamar puts up in low 20s it will be alright.

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7 minutes ago, Zangief80 said:

 

Didnt Mayfield just put up 14.6 against NE?  Not a much better result but still if Lamar puts up in low 20s it will be alright.

 

Probably depends on your scoring but Baker was 11.56 in my league.

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Everyone be praising NE defense that they take away opponents biggest strength. SO i mean, their previous teams best strenghts were??? Davante Parker? LevBell behind a sh**ty line, rookie terry mclauren, *whatever the Giants have*(no barkley that game), Josh Allen and OBJ who isnt really doing much this year (chubb ran all over em)?

 

Tts42572 says he needs 100 yards rushing and a TD to be solid? So thats 16 points, absolutely solid... but you gotta have some additional passing yards right? That takes you way over 20 points.

I wouldnt be mad if he finishes somewhere around 60-75yd rushing, 200 passing and a passing TD. And dont tell me this is an unrealistic expectation.

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1 minute ago, 16kredit said:

Everyone be praising NE defense that they take away opponents biggest strength. SO i mean, their previous teams best strenghts were??? Davante Parker? LevBell behind a sh**ty line, rookie terry mclauren, *whatever the Giants have*(no barkley that game), Josh Allen and OBJ who isnt really doing much this year (chubb ran all over em)?

 

Tts42572 says he needs 100 yards rushing and a TD to be solid? So thats 16 points, absolutely solid... but you gotta have some additional passing yards right? That takes you way over 20 points.

I wouldnt be mad if he finishes somewhere around 60-75yd rushing, 200 passing and a passing TD. And dont tell me this is an unrealistic expectation.

Very realistic but turnovers could hinder those #s

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I've got faith in Lamar and the Ravens this week.  Certainly could go the wrong way, but this is football, nothing is guaranteed or pre-determined.  Kid has a shot at taking them down and I want to be a part of that if that happens.

 

[...]

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9 minutes ago, fullonchubb said:

I've got faith in Lamar and the Ravens this week.  Certainly could go the wrong way, but this is football, nothing is guaranteed or pre-determined.  Kid has a shot at taking them down and I want to be a part of that if that happens.

 

[...]

Nothing predetermined? That’s a stretch 😂

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I'm gonna roll with him no matter what. The waiver QBs aren't any safer than Lamar, even those with good matchups are known for laying eggs every now and then. Couldn't stomach benching Lamar and then watch him breaking a big one and/or score a rushing TD.

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The tricky part is we don't know how good the Patriots defense really is as they have faced some of the historically worst offenses for 7 staright weeks and a banged up injured Ben with no AB in game 1.

I can see a 16 to 20 point game from Lamar if the defense plays well.

Think I would start ahead of anyone besides those mentioned above ,Minshew,Josh Allen 

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If this was Mahomes, we wouldn't be sitting him.  Lamar was right up there with Mahomes in fantasy points for the season....thought about starting Darnold and getting cute.  Gonna play some smash mouth fantasy football this week and start Lamar against the top ranked defense in the history of the NFL - WOOOOOOooooooooOOoOOoOOooOOOOoooo

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all it really takes is 1 drive for him to get a respectable pt total. im starting over (Jacoby @pit 6 pt pass td)

 

edit- could get 10 pts on 1 drive. im sure he can get 8 pts from all other drives

Edited by colepenhagen

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On 10/31/2019 at 2:44 PM, frog34 said:

I'm gonna roll with him no matter what. The waiver QBs aren't any safer than Lamar, even those with good matchups are known for laying eggs every now and then. Couldn't stomach benching Lamar and then watch him breaking a big one and/or score a rushing TD.

This. I hate to be emotional about it, but it’s part of it.

 

What can you stomach? I know I can stomach Jackson getting shut down. I know I can’t stomach watching the TB Turnover Machine flail and get benched.

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On 10/31/2019 at 12:45 PM, colepenhagen said:

all it really takes is 1 drive for him to get a respectable pt total. im starting over (Jacoby @pit 6 pt pass td)

 

edit- could get 10 pts on 1 drive. im sure he can get 8 pts from all other drives

In his last game, Lamar had 11.86 fantasy points on the first drive (standard Yahoo scoring)...including 2 rush attempts for 57 yards and a TD. 

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20th leading passer

10th leading rusher

If you have better options (Wilson, Stafford certainly), I'd go with them.  But if you have to play him, I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[...]

Marquis Brown being back is big.

I'm really excited about the game on a non fantasy level.  I just want to see the chess match between Belichick and Harbaugh.  Should be fun.

If Lamar gets 20, I'll be happy.  Think it's very possible 

FWIW, I'd go with Wilson, Stafford, Rodgers, Dak over Lamar.

Maybe Watson, Allen, Winston, Carr.

Not Brady, Cousins, Minshew, Brissett, Wentz, KC QB, Tannehill, Jones, Mayfield, Darnold.

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