Stonej14

Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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Really nice additions to the passing attack in Hollywood Brown & Boykin. I don’t think either of them are worth drafting in redraft but they definitely bump up the 2019 outlook of Lamar IMO. The TE Hurst & Andrews should improve in year 2. Ingram’s a solid receiving RB too. Jackson definitely has some playmakers to work with in 2019 & he obviously will put up big rushing numbers. Great QB to target as your backup that could end up being a top 12 fantasy QB.

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8 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Really nice additions to the passing attack in Hollywood Brown & Boykin. I don’t think either of them are worth drafting in redraft but they definitely bump up the 2019 outlook of Lamar IMO. The TE Hurst & Andrews should improve in year 2. Ingram’s a solid receiving RB too. Jackson definitely has some playmakers to work with in 2019 & he obviously will put up big rushing numbers. Great QB to target as your backup that could end up being a top 12 fantasy QB.

 

Why would you want to Target a backup QB? Waste of a spot.

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

Why would you want to Target a backup QB? Waste of a spot.

If you play in auction draft leagues & want to spend most of your money on RB & WR, then targeting a QB like Lamar for $1 makes sense. Like I said, there’s a decent chance that he finishes as a fantasy QB1.

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12 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Why would you want to Target a backup QB? Waste of a spot.

I generally draft 2 cheap QBs. Statistically you have a pretty good chance of one of them exceeding expectations: profit.

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I generally draft 2 cheap QBs. Statistically you have a pretty good chance of one of them exceeding expectations: profit.

 

But you could just draft one and if he doesn't work out swap him for someone on the wire. Same s---. QBs grow on trees these days 

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9 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

But you could just draft one and if he doesn't work out swap him for someone on the wire. Same s---. QBs grow on trees these days 

 

Not if everyone (guppies) draft backup QBs for their bye-weeks.  If you draft one really late it might not be a bad idea to take another if they offer potential upside.

 

Oh and QBs do get hurt you know.  

Edited by theSPANKER

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1 minute ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Not if everyone (guppies) draft backup QBs for their bye-weeks.  If you draft one really late it might not be a bad idea to take another if they offer potential upside.

 

Oh and QBs do get hurt you know.  

 

Nah. There are too many. I've streamed QBs before. It's a lot easier than streaming TE and Def.

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1 minute ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Not if everyone (guppies) draft backup QBs for their bye-weeks.  If you draft one really late it might not be a bad idea to take another if they offer potential upside.

 

Oh and QBs do get hurt you know.  

I'd say QB's generally grow on trees unless you are in a dynasty or 2-QB league.

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Just now, devaster said:

I'd say QB's generally grow on trees unless you are in a dynasty or 2-QB league.

 

Yes 2QB leagues are different.

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Yea on the fantasy footballers podcast they do a stream of the week every week and if you use their guy from the waivers every week you woulda had like the qb11's stats last year. Not bad considering you save so much on draft capital. 

In a 1qb league their is almost no reason to fill a bench spot with a qb.. if your other league mates do then that should leave several decent free agents to pick up. 

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47 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'd say QB's generally grow on trees unless you are in a dynasty or 2-QB league.

I wasn't talking 2QB, but also in a 14 teamer where most people have a backup, QBs do not grow on trees.

 

Besides, my simple strategy (again) is that you pick 2 cheap QBs and see if one of them exceeds expectations. That's quite different from selecting one and trying to replace him on the wire if he doesn't work out, because by then you're competing with your league mates who have similar problems, so the expected value of that replacement is lower than the expected value of the best of 2 cheap QBs. Very simple concept. 

 

Of course you could argue that you prefer the added value of a 5th RB for your 12th rounder, and that's fair, but in my mind (and my limited simulations) I slightly prefer the second QB.

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30 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I wasn't talking 2QB, but also in a 14 teamer where most people have a backup, QBs do not grow on trees.

 

Besides, my simple strategy (again) is that you pick 2 cheap QBs and see if one of them exceeds expectations. That's quite different from selecting one and trying to replace him on the wire if he doesn't work out, because by then you're competing with your league mates who have similar problems, so the expected value of that replacement is lower than the expected value of the best of 2 cheap QBs. Very simple concept. 

 

Of course you could argue that you prefer the added value of a 5th RB for your 12th rounder, and that's fair, but in my mind (and my limited simulations) I slightly prefer the second QB.

 

THIS.  My strategy as well.  I'd rather select two late round QBs during the draft with high potential to become a top 12 QB than to take one and he flops or becomes injured.  

If I happen to hit on both of them, more than likely I can flip one of them for a sure-thing starting  RB/WR/TE later.  

 

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With the addition of Boykin and Brown, Jackson has to be ****ting his pants knowing that come September he is going to be totally exposed for the gawd awful passer he really is. The sooner the better for the franchise. They will draft a real NFL QB prospect in 2020 or at the latest 2021 to fix the mistake they made.The NFL is now a pass friendly offense and these guys have one of the worst passers to ever step on a field in any year. 

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12 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I wasn't talking 2QB, but also in a 14 teamer where most people have a backup, QBs do not grow on trees.

 

Besides, my simple strategy (again) is that you pick 2 cheap QBs and see if one of them exceeds expectations. That's quite different from selecting one and trying to replace him on the wire if he doesn't work out, because by then you're competing with your league mates who have similar problems, so the expected value of that replacement is lower than the expected value of the best of 2 cheap QBs. Very simple concept. 

 

Of course you could argue that you prefer the added value of a 5th RB for your 12th rounder, and that's fair, but in my mind (and my limited simulations) I slightly prefer the second QB.

 

Yeah it's a pretty minor deal in the grand scheme of things. I usually stockpile RBs on my bench.

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On 4/29/2019 at 8:20 AM, FavreCo said:

With the addition of Boykin and Brown, Jackson has to be ****ting his pants knowing that come September he is going to be totally exposed for the gawd awful passer he really is. The sooner the better for the franchise. They will draft a real NFL QB prospect in 2020 or at the latest 2021 to fix the mistake they made.The NFL is now a pass friendly offense and these guys have one of the worst passers to ever step on a field in any year. 

 

I think this is a little harsh. Getting two rookies isnt the same as getting randy moss and odell. These guys are not excellent route runners, brown is injured and undersized, and Boykin never broke 900 yards in college. They may be all pros but probably not. I dont think the addition of these two guys will prove how awful you think Jackson is or isnt. But usually the addition of good wrs makes the qb better as well. Idk why he would be "****ting his pants" 

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Baker Mayfield first 187 passes: 57.7% 5 tds 5 ints

Lamar Jackson threw 170 passes: 58.2% 6tds 3 ints

 

Just putting this out there

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Baker Mayfield first 187 passes: 57.7% 5 tds 5 ints

Lamar Jackson threw 170 passes: 58.2% 6tds 3 ints

 

Just putting this out there

giphy.gif

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Liking Jackson as my QB3, if and only if, i draft two ahead of him that are the never get hurt, never get benched types.   I want Jackson on the whatever chance he blows up, but i dont want to NEED him, so to speak.   If i've got Brady and Rivers, for instance, they dont have amazing upside but i know i can hang my hat on them being out there on Sunday.   

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Liking Jackson as my QB3, if and only if, i draft two ahead of him that are the never get hurt, never get benched types.   I want Jackson on the whatever chance he blows up, but i dont want to NEED him, so to speak.   If i've got Brady and Rivers, for instance, they dont have amazing upside but i know i can hang my hat on them being out there on Sunday.   

 

not sure what kind of league you're speaking about,

but drafting 3 QBs in anything less than a superflex or two-QB league seems like a questionable choice

giphy.gif

 

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Yeah, its a 2 QB league, I think i had mentioned that in my post, edited a sentence, and mistakenly took that part out.   

 

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Yeah, its a 2 QB league, I think i had mentioned that in my post, edited a sentence, and mistakenly took that part out.   

 

 

About how much money would it cost to get all 3 in your 2qb league. Just an estimated guess obviously. Seems like a lot to invest in one position 

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

About how much money would it cost to get all 3 in your 2qb league. Just an estimated guess obviously. Seems like a lot to invest in one position 

 

Its not an auction.   Generally every team has 2 QB's by round 5 or 6, and the third QB's are sprinkled throughout the later rounds.    Jackson could be a 10th/11th round pick, maybe earlier- its hard to say.   

Its a 10 team league, so you gotta change your angle when you look at cost here- good RB's and WR's fall.   Imagine 5 years ago (and further back) when you had so much garbage at QB where there were maybe 15 even solid starters, scarcity drove that draft into insanity.   If you tried to go zero QB, you usually got your a** kicked.   Meanwhile, in a shallow league, good RB's and WR's were there late.   There's also plenty of available waiver players.   You can find a RB and WR sometimes on the wire.  You'll never get a good QB there, unless he replaces an injured player and blows up.   

Now, its a lot different, even QB's in the 20-25 range can put up strong weeks, and all you really need is someone solid, reliable there and you'll likely have a shot at a 4,000 yard passer.   As long as you have two healthy QB's and dont have to scramble, you're fine.   When injuries happen, it gets hairy.   

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48 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

About how much money would it cost to get all 3 in your 2qb league. Just an estimated guess obviously. Seems like a lot to invest in one position 

 

This is pretty standard practice for 2 QB leagues.  I would always draft then round 1 and 2 back to back and have a 3rd between round 8-10 and had success before quitting those leagues.

 

QBs are substantially more valuable than RBs in 2 QB leagues.  And the people that waited on QBs would end up with guys like 2018 Marcus Mariota / Case Keenum.  Thanks for your money, you're finished.  You can't defeat a 50-60 point vs 20 points positional disadvantage.  

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Echoing Dwight- QB-QB in round one and two was absolutely a common practice in this league for years.  Its no longer the case as more depth at the position has blossomed.     Last year, only 2 QB's went in round one, and maybe 2-3 more in round 2.   This year, Mahomes is a first round lock, and that's honestly all i'd hang my hat on.  I have no idea how many more will go early.   There will be QB runs at times, hard to predict where they happen.   

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5 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

This is pretty standard practice for 2 QB leagues.  I would always draft then round 1 and 2 back to back and have a 3rd between round 8-10 and had success before quitting those leagues.

 

QBs are substantially more valuable than RBs in 2 QB leagues.  And the people that waited on QBs would end up with guys like 2018 Marcus Mariota / Case Keenum.  Thanks for your money, you're finished.  You can't defeat a 50-60 point vs 20 points positional disadvantage.  

 

Wow reading these last few posts have made me realize how lucky I've been. 

I just blindly assumed going really cheap on qbs was still the way to go because you can round up the mitchell trubiskys for next to nothing and end up with good qb play but the last few posts have me questioning my tactics.

Edited by Stonej14

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