Stonej14

Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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Lamar seems very accurate to me. But I will agree that he definitely gets alot of easier throws due to teams being afraid of his running ability. There is always a defender used to spy him. Sometimes it's a safety. Defenses have tried to blitz corners instead of linebackers because he'll just outrun a linebacker or juke em. All these things help create passing lanes.

Yanno he does this with a pretty paltry recieving corpse. I know Ingram is good and Andrew's is pretty great and brown might be a star in the making but jackson by no means has a antonio brown and juju or a OBJ and jarvis or julio and calvin or thomas and Kamara.

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I know the Raven’s lost their pro bowl center, but I’m not that worried about it because his backup looked decent last week on the road against the Rams – he probably went against Aaron Donald and seemed to hold up.  Plus the game is in Baltimore at 1 pm, that’s really tough for a West Coast team to be on top of their game that early.  Last week, we saw the Raider’s sleepwalk against the Jets in a similar situation, whereas normally the Raiders look competent, at least on offense.  This could really be a big factor this week in the Raven’s favor.    

Lamar Jackson is the fantasy QB of both my teams - I drafted him in one league and traded for him in the other.  He’s really grown this past year.  I remember the scouting report on him coming out of college, good accuracy inside the hashmarks and inaccurate outside the numbers.  It was pretty spot on.  We saw the worst of him his rookie year – he was thrown into a new offense that they redid on the fly when they benched Flacco.  Last year, he was inaccurate throwing – that’s the narrative, but his rookie year he was the best QB of all time in terms of passer rating for those age 21-years old or younger.   See https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/you-are-wrong-about-lamar-jackson/  Someone posted that link earlier in this thread, thanks for that!!!

This year, he finally got an offseason to learn the offense he was going to run.  Players improve the most between their 1st and 2nd years.  In Lamar’s case, this is so, so true.  On the broadcasts, they mentioned that last year he couldn’t throw a spiral, leading to a lot of wobbly passes.  Hhe worked on that and his spirals look pretty tight (maybe not Matt Ryan level) but plenty good.  He also widened his stance throwing, instead of throwing off his toes and his accuracy has gotten much better as a result.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28146899/baltimore-ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-goes-question-mark-exclamation-point-53-weeks

Since there’s been so much stuff in this thread about his accuracy this year, I would like to point to the following article.

Lamar has been the best QB in the NFL in 3 different categories, according to a recent article by profootballfocus.  The article is a great read about elite QB throws, so if talking about elite floats your boat, here’s some quality analysis.  They rank Russell Wilson best overall, which is fine by me. 

https://www.pff.com/news/the-best-nfl-quarterback-at-every-throw-and-situation-35-categories

1)      “Best throwing to receivers with a step of separation”

“The most improved passer in the league this season, Jackson is getting the job done when his receivers have a step of separation. He has a league-high 96.3 passing grade and an adjusted completion percentage of 82.4%, which ranks fifth.”

2)      “Best targeting TEs”

“The Ravens have made it a point to invest in the tight end position, and Jackson is taking advantage with a 92.5 grade when throwing to inline tight ends. His passer rating of 139.6 this season ranks fourth in the league.”

3)      “Best on three-step-drop concepts”

“Jackson has been excellent in the quick game, making sharp decisions while firing accurately and on time. He has the NFL's top grade (89.1) and passer rating (128.2) on three-step drops.”

Edited by rocket
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10 hours ago, Gohawks said:

To summarize the last few pages of this thread:

"Lamar Jackson is great but he is lacking in X which can be problematic"

"ARE YOU SAYING JACKSON SUCKS AT X? HATER"

well...no. not really. it's more like

"Lamar Jackson is great but he is lacking in X which can be problematic"

"can you give a better definition of X and maybe provide some numbers to back up your statement?"

"look...i know it when i see it. you just have to watch the games. Do you even watch the games? Drew Brees!"

 

Also the above post by rocket is a great and informative post. 

 

 

Edited by yossarian

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10 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

This theory or philosophy  or opinion of yours would be much helpful if you actually could give some numbers or metrics or methodology to support it?

Also  this one line makes zero sense:

Elite accuracy is the difference between a completion that ends in an immediate tackle and a completion with YAC because of proper placement. 

Nothing you stated in that line distinguishes between accuracy vs "elite" accuracy. 

Even so called 'experts" disagree on how to measure ACCURACY  so I find it highly amusing that people here are actually attempting to define or debate this arbitrary term of "ELITE" accuracy as if it is something that actually exists

This is exactly why I ask people to define the terms they use because the basis of debate can be miles apart or more importabtly you discover people have no idea what they are actually speaking of. 😂

 

Even PFF had to create their own formulation so they could sell their services called Accuracy Percentage or Adjusted Completion Percentage

PFF offers Accuracy Percentage. The formula is as follows:

Accuracy% = (Completions + Drops) / (Attempts – TA – BP – Spikes – HAT)

The Adjusted Completion Percentage accounts for factors that hurt the passer's completion percentage but don't help show how accurate they are.

It accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and passes where the QB was hit while they threw the ball. The formula: ((Completions + Drops) / (Attempts - Throw Aways - Spikes - Batted Passes - Hit As Thrown))

Subscription required of course to get the actual stats

https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions?season=2019

 

Football Outsiders created their own also 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

https://brickwallblitz.com

 

 
BOTTOM LINE IS GUYS WHO ARE DISPUTING "ELITE" ACCURACY AS IF IT IS A REAL THING ARE PRETENDING TO KNOW ABOUT SOMETHING THEY KNOW NOTHING OF !
 
Which is why they cant define it when asked to 🤨
 
 

 

This is pretty disingenuous. OP is clearly saying proper ball placement is the difference between elite and average or subpar accuracy. He could have articulated it a bit better, but his point is still valid in my view. Just because it isnt purely quantitative doesn't make it "not real". 

 

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6 minutes ago, AJJones said:

 

This is pretty disingenuous. OP is clearly saying proper ball placement is the difference between elite and average or subpar accuracy. He could have articulated it a bit better, but his point is still valid in my view. Just because it isnt purely quantitative doesn't make it "not real". 

 

 

 

If you can't quantify it then how can you state if a QB has elite accuracy vs accuracy?  No one here has quantified any aspect of accuracy but yet they are saying they know if a QB has "elite" accuracy? Professionals who make a living evaluating QB cant even agree on a standard of HOW TO MEASURE ACCURACY but guys here know what "elite accuracy" is? 😂

This ranks right up there with stuff only people on a fantasy forum would pretend to know and be authorities on🤣

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The only thing stopping Lamar, is an unfortunate injury. End of discussion. Move on 😂😂 

It’s not the most unlikely of outcomes, but he’s such a joy to watch. If you cheer against him, I know exactly who you are in real life, and I hope things get better for you. 

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9 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

If you can't quantify it then how can you state if a QB has elite accuracy vs accuracy?  No one here has quantified any aspect of accuracy but yet they are saying they know if a QB has "elite" accuracy? Professionals who make a living evaluating QB cant even agree on a standard of HOW TO MEASURE ACCURACY but guys here know what "elite accuracy" is? 😂

This ranks right up there with stuff only people on a fantasy forum would pretend to know and be authorities on🤣

 

I agree that it is hard to measure and it weakens the argument for sure. However, he didnt make a subjective "I know it when I see it" argument. Proper ball placement is a ubiquitous concept in football. I think that is important to point out.

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1 hour ago, AJJones said:

 

I agree that it is hard to measure and it weakens the argument for sure. However, he didnt make a subjective "I know it when I see it" argument. Proper ball placement is a ubiquitous concept in football. I think that is important to point out.

 

I agree that proper ball placement is the ubiquitous concept in defining accuracy, however that in itself does not define this artificial concept of "elite" accuracy. Proper ball placement is the basis of accuracy, so my point is define what 'elite" accuracy is and no one is able to define this because it was spontaneously created in this thread yet people want to support it as if it is a generally accepted term when it's not. Experts don't even agree on a standard metric of accuracy, they all have their own methodologies of measuring it. Check scouts and scouting reports and all of the guys who publish NFL rated statistics/metrics and "elite" accuracy does not exist as a metric. 

It's a rotoworld forum special 😂

So in terms of Lamar jackson is he an accurate passer? Is he average in accuracy or below average or above average? Saying he is not elite or that he is elite makes no sense if you can't define what the standard of elite accuracy is. 

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So many arguments about this dude are moot.

He's putting up great numbers and crazy fun to watch.

Looks to me like the best passing elite runner QB I've seen.

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On 11/27/2019 at 10:43 AM, Gohawks said:

This is the point I was making earlier.

People are acting like Jackson is some revolutionary never seen before player. I’m sorry to burst your bubble but no. Is he the best out of the breed? Without a doubt. However, Kaep and RG3 were viewed in a similar light but people are acting like they were some bums. No, they just both flopped after a short time after being viewed as some revolutionary game changing QBs. Which is the second point I was making. 

This is where you lose me. Could not see Kaep and RG3 making it as starting caliber RBs like you could with Lamar. He is absolutely on a different level as a runner. So i don't find those comparison worthy. 

 

Most RPOs are done by QBs who are just simply athletic, can run. Yet don't show most of the traits you need from NFL grade RBs. So 1/3rd of the RPO is asking the QB to do something he is not actually NFL proficient in. Banking 100% on mis-direction to get yards.

 

Due to Lamar is such a great runner. This puts even more pressure on the defense to stop the run. Making it even easier to pass the ball. So, this threshold to be a proficient passer is less.  I'm not going to pretend to know the longevity of this style with an NFL Caliber runner at QB. I'm also not going to pretend its comparable to those guys either.

Edited by Slatykamora
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40 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

This is where you lose me. Could not see Kaep and RG3 making it as starting caliber RBs like you could with Lamar. He is absolutely on a different level as a runner. So i don't find those comparison worthy. 

 

Most RPOs are done by QBs who are just simply athletic, can run. Yet don't show most of the traits you need from NFL grade RBs. So 1/3rd of the RPO is asking the QB to do something he is not actually NFL proficient in. Banking 100% on mis-direction to get yards.

 

Due to Lamar is such a great runner. This puts even more pressure on the defense to stop the run. Making it even easier to pass the ball. So, this threshold to be a proficient passer is less.  I'm not going to pretend to know the longevity of this style with an NFL Caliber runner at QB. I'm also not going to pretend its comparable to those guys either.

Two things 

1. Running from the QB position and running from the RB position is completely different. Jackson cannot make it as a RB and people need to stop pushing the absurd narrative. He’s not built close to a RB. As a WR? Maybe.

2. RG3 ran a 4.4 and was on pace for nearly 900 rushing yards over a 16 game stretch. This was playing for a team SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the Ravens talent wise. This is exactly what I mean by revisionist history.  

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7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

2. RG3 ran a 4.4 and was on pace for nearly 900 rushing yards over a 16 game stretch. This was playing for a team SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the Ravens talent wise. This is exactly what I mean by revisionist history.  

Forget it, Jake. It's China town

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11 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

So many arguments about this dude are moot.

He's putting up great numbers and crazy fun to watch.

Looks to me like the best passing elite runner QB I've seen.

 

 

i think that's the problem.  The debate went from he can't pass the ball because he is inaccurate to well anyone can pass against Miami and he is still really a running back playing QB but wait until he plays a real defense like the Patriots to well he isn't really that great a passer because he doesnt make difficult passes like Rodgers and Brees to wait until he plays the Niners defense 😂

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51 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

i think that's the problem.  The debate went from he can't pass the ball because he is inaccurate to well anyone can pass against Miami and he is still really a running back playing QB but wait until he plays a real defense like the Patriots to well he isn't really that great a passer because he doesnt make difficult passes like Rodgers and Brees to wait until he plays the Niners defense 😂

There’s two separate debates going on here. One about him this season and one about his future. 

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8 hours ago, dashoe said:

i think that's the problem.  The debate went from he can't pass the ball because he is inaccurate to well anyone can pass against Miami and he is still really a running back playing QB but wait until he plays a real defense like the Patriots to well he isn't really that great a passer because he doesnt make difficult passes like Rodgers and Brees to wait until he plays the Niners defense 😂

Yup.

I also think we're waiting (not hoping) for him to fail. There's two reasons behind that I reckon.

Firstly, he's a fairly unique type of player who doesn't really fit any historic blueprint for how a QB should play. His unprecedented success right now feels unsustainable because of that, as well as the fact that all the players who you can make comparisons with were unable to sustain their own relative successes.

Secondly, this game makes you sadistically negative. I drafted Lamar everywhere and am a believer, but I'm waiting for that cliff edge, maybe I feel like I don't deserve for him to maintain it. Then there are others who are sticking stubbornly to their claims that he's no good, entrenched in their views, those who want him to fail because he's likely to be on someone else's league winning team, or people who hate the Ravens.

He seems like quite a good dude, so regardless of whether he was on my team or not, I don't begrudge him any success and certainly don't want him to fail. But I am expecting it, based on nothing more than a subconscious self loathing.

 

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He's shown some kinks in the armour against the Steelers and Browns.  But he has just looked incredible the past few weeks throwing the ball.  Let's not forget this guy is pretty raw in terms of learning the proper fundamentals of throwing.  He's not a finished product, there's more work to be done.  Excited to see where he takes things over the next several years.  He seems to have the attitude and drive of Russell Wilson, so hopefully that's a career arc he can follow.

If anyone doubts his ability to make throws, well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ST3Hj_OZ8E

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I guess we are still waiting for him to implode when he plays a REAL defense . . .again🤣

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This is his floor. Was hoping for another ceiling game though

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11 minutes ago, Deke said:

This is his floor. Was hoping for another ceiling game though

Against the best defense in football in horrible weather? This was an amazing game for him considering the circumstances. 

Edited by yanksman

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