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Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

ryan is awful.

point still stands. non mobile qbs are a million times easier to defend. even with crazy cerebal qbs like manning and brees you still can bait them. there is nothing you can do in coverage when a qb breaks containment and extends a play for a couple extra seconds. which is why big ben had success

 

Big Ben didnt break containment he had multiple defenders trying to unsuccessfully sack him because he was impossible to take down, it just looked like he broke containment when all he was doing was stepping into his throw with 3 defenders hanging onto him 🤣

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4 hours ago, devaster said:

lol - welcome to 20+ years ago. This narrative pops up every time a mobile QB has success in the NFL.

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/video/dilfer-lamar-is-the-poster-child-for-the-evolution-of-football

 

It isn't just a narrative. According to Dilfer, Lamar is just apart of the first wave of the new age QB

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In the NFL, QB skills will always trump QB mobility. 

"QB skills" defined as accuracy, good decision making, reading the defense, working through progressions, recognizing the blitz and making appropriate hot reads, feeling/avoiding pocket pressure, etc. 

IMHO most of the major QB busts may have great arms and wonderful accuracy when they have time to throw to open receivers, but in the NFL receivers aren't open the same way they are in college and they have far less time to process the pass rush, decide where the ball needs to go, and get it there. Just like in NBA shootarounds you see everyone [even big men] draining 3-pointers like crazy but a lot fewer are able to do it consistently in a game situation with a defender's hand in your face. 

 

A "statue" QB who has all of those skills listed above will always have value. A "mobile" QB without those skills will fail. A mobile QB with great QB skills is of course better than either, but there aren't many unicorns like that available. Lamar is a unicorn.

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2 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/video/dilfer-lamar-is-the-poster-child-for-the-evolution-of-football

 

It isn't just a narrative. According to Dilfer, Lamar is just apart of the first wave of the new age QB

Who are in the first wave? I've heard this before when Vick came into the league. Russell Wilson has to be a part of the wave and he's the elder of it. Deshaun, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak to a lesser extent? Maybe Kyler Murray if he keeps progressing? They were saying on the last broadcast a comparison to Barry Sanders, which was pretty ridiculous. His moves were no different than I saw from Vick. He revolutionized the position. I am still impressed more by what a healthy Mahomes is able to do over what Lamar Jackson is doing right now. Maybe once he drops the arm band I'll change my opinion.

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9 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Who are in the first wave? I've heard this before when Vick came into the league. Russell Wilson has to be a part of the wave and he's the elder of it. Deshaun, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak to a lesser extent? Maybe Kyler Murray if he keeps progressing? They were saying on the last broadcast a comparison to Barry Sanders, which was pretty ridiculous. His moves were no different than I saw from Vick. He revolutionized the position. I am still impressed more by what a healthy Mahomes is able to do over what Lamar Jackson is doing right now. Maybe once he drops the arm band I'll change my opinion.

Heck, someone mentioned Brees as a "statue" QB, but he's quite mobile. I went to Purdue and was there at the same time Brees was our QB, and one of his big assets was the ability to tuck the ball and take off running, to great effect. He was never seen as a "running QB", but he was more than capable of getting out of the pocket and picking things up on the ground. He still is. 

But I think there's a BIG difference between a QB who has elite RB skills, such as Vick or Lamar, and a QB who is merely mobile. There are a lot of mobile QBs. There are very few who have RB athleticism and QB skills. I don't see this as being a "new wave" of this type of player, since there are so few of these players in the world to begin with.

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3 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Who are in the first wave? I've heard this before when Vick came into the league. Russell Wilson has to be a part of the wave and he's the elder of it. Deshaun, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak to a lesser extent? Maybe Kyler Murray if he keeps progressing? They were saying on the last broadcast a comparison to Barry Sanders, which was pretty ridiculous. His moves were no different than I saw from Vick. He revolutionized the position. I am still impressed more by what a healthy Mahomes is able to do over what Lamar Jackson is doing right now. Maybe once he drops the arm band I'll change my opinion.

I imagine that consists of Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Murray, and Watson, guys that can actually play quarterback. That's where they all differ from Vick, who was just an athlete at the quarterback position. Wilson probably fits the description, but Dilfer is saying it's becoming more and more common at all these football camps to see the best athletes behind center rather than at DE or a skill position. There's always been mobile quarterbacks but they were rare. Now half the league has them. Not to the extent Jackson obviously, but there's a lot better athletes behind center now than there was 10 years ago, and it's continuing to trend that way

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26 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

In the NFL, QB skills will always trump QB mobility. 

"QB skills" defined as accuracy, good decision making, reading the defense, working through progressions, recognizing the blitz and making appropriate hot reads, feeling/avoiding pocket pressure, etc. 

IMHO most of the major QB busts may have great arms and wonderful accuracy when they have time to throw to open receivers, but in the NFL receivers aren't open the same way they are in college and they have far less time to process the pass rush, decide where the ball needs to go, and get it there. Just like in NBA shootarounds you see everyone [even big men] draining 3-pointers like crazy but a lot fewer are able to do it consistently in a game situation with a defender's hand in your face. 

 

A "statue" QB who has all of those skills listed above will always have value. A "mobile" QB without those skills will fail. A mobile QB with great QB skills is of course better than either, but there aren't many unicorns like that available. Lamar is a unicorn.

Lamar is certainly a unicorn this season, but even as a 58% passer last season, he went 6-1. 

 

I just think too many-- us and GMs-- underrate the running/mobile prospects and overrate the pocket-passing prospects. The truth is that most QBs are busts or mediocre at best. Finding a long-term successful QB of whatever style is basically looking for a unicorn. 

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5 hours ago, devaster said:

lol - welcome to 20+ years ago. This narrative pops up every time a mobile QB has success in the NFL.

Yea, this was actually a plot line/talking point in Any Given Sunday, which came out in... 1999

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49 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Lamar is certainly a unicorn this season, but even as a 58% passer last season, he went 6-1. 

 

I just think too many-- us and GMs-- underrate the running/mobile prospects and overrate the pocket-passing prospects. The truth is that most QBs are busts or mediocre at best. Finding a long-term successful QB of whatever style is basically looking for a unicorn. 

I don't like to ascribe too much of a team's W/L record, particularly over a small sample size, just to a QB. The Saints are 4-2 this year with Brees as the starter and 6-0 with Bridgewater. Are we calling Teddy B a better QB than Drew now? Of course not. 

The Ravens were scoring 23.7 points per game with Flacco, en route to a 4-5 record. They were scoring 24.1 for the rest of the season when Jackson took over, at 6-2 counting the playoff game. There may have been more to the picture than just the QB, given that it was only a 0.4 ppg increase. 

My contention is that the FIRST question for any QB in the NFL has to be whether they can do QB things well. Running ability can somewhat negate limitations in the passing game, but guys like Lamar Jackson are more than merely RBs who can throw the ball a little bit. He's a very good thrower, and the ability to run just opens everything else up. 

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2 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

Josh Rosen, supposedly the top talent in that draft but

3 other QBs were taken before him.

Draft "experts" usually know less than they let on.

Let's see how discussion of Tevor Lawrence goes

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16 hours ago, bwarbiany said:

I don't like to ascribe too much of a team's W/L record, particularly over a small sample size, just to a QB. The Saints are 4-2 this year with Brees as the starter and 6-0 with Bridgewater. Are we calling Teddy B a better QB than Drew now? Of course not. 

The Ravens were scoring 23.7 points per game with Flacco, en route to a 4-5 record. They were scoring 24.1 for the rest of the season when Jackson took over, at 6-2 counting the playoff game. There may have been more to the picture than just the QB, given that it was only a 0.4 ppg increase. 

My contention is that the FIRST question for any QB in the NFL has to be whether they can do QB things well. Running ability can somewhat negate limitations in the passing game, but guys like Lamar Jackson are more than merely RBs who can throw the ball a little bit. He's a very good thrower, and the ability to run just opens everything else up. 

All fair points. But BAL was a completely different team with Lamar under center. 

 

It was not necessarily that they began scoring significantly more points with Lamar but more so how the offense was able to control the game. Their TOP went from 27 MPG under Flacco to 35 MPG under Lamar. Their rushing offense went from 92 YPG to 229 YPG. Those differences are jaw-dropping. 

 

And still surprisingly, their defense was giving up just a shade more PPG with Lamar than they did with Flacco-- though it should be noted there was much less variation from the mean with Lamar. 

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19 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

ryan is awful.

point still stands. non mobile qbs are a million times easier to defend. even with crazy cerebal qbs like manning and brees you still can bait them. there is nothing you can do in coverage when a qb breaks containment and extends a play for a couple extra seconds. which is why big ben had success

I wouldn't say awful, he has had both fantasy success and real on the field success.  I wouldn't call him elite but he is far and away better than the Eli, Rivers, Carr group imo. 

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1 hour ago, Grayson2401 said:

All fair points. But BAL was a completely different team with Lamar under center. 

 

It was not necessarily that they began scoring significantly more points with Lamar but more so how the offense was able to control the game. Their TOP went from 27 MPG under Flacco to 35 MPG under Lamar. Their rushing offense went from 92 YPG to 229 YPG. Those differences are jaw-dropping. 

 

And still surprisingly, their defense was giving up just a shade more PPG with Lamar than they did with Flacco-- though it should be noted there was much less variation from the mean with Lamar. 

Great post. If you watched the Ravens last year you know that 6-1 stretch was almost entirely Lamar. The way he picks up first downs almost at will with his feet sustains drives, eats clock, keeps the defense off the field and fresh. It's a snowball effect and makes winning for the opposition exceedingly difficult.

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Mobile qbs have always been in the league going back to the dawn of the game. Actually passing qbs used to be rare until. Notre dame and knute rockne started to pass the ball. The pendulum swung all the way to statue qbs with a few exceptions of mobile qbs like rodger the Dodger. Fran Tarkenton. Cunningham. So on an so forth. Now most qbs in the league are athletes.

2 thing that have really changed the qb position in my opinion is that now from a early age the most athletic kid in school is often put at qb and plays qb his whole career as opposed to being put at running back or wr. The other thing is now NFL offenses have adapted to Mobile qbs. Just a few years ago in order to be a qb you absolutely had to make all the throws consistently. Even the mobile qbs had to be excellent passers because coaches had offenses designed for qbs to sit in the pocket and make proper reads and tough throws. Steve young could do this but mike Vick couldn't but I believe vick would be a monster in Baltimore just like lamar. (Maybe not as good maybe better but he would succeed)

Lamar Jackson has a whole new offense built just for him. Russell wilson popularized the RPO. Kyler murray has a college offense that adapted to mobile qbs decades ago even RGIII had the Shanahans using read options left and right to help him succeed. Guys like vick or culpepper didnt have much help. 

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How does a RUNNING BACK QB get such a high rating INSIDE THE POCKET?🤣

Totally supports the belief that he isn't an ACCURATE passer? 😂

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Are the naysayers still waiting for Lamar to play a REAL NFL DEFENSE. . . again?😂

 

He is the NFL and fantasy MVP!

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On 12/7/2019 at 12:27 PM, dashoe said:

 

 

 

How does a RUNNING BACK QB get such a high rating INSIDE THE POCKET?🤣

Totally supports the belief that he isn't an ACCURATE passer? 😂

 

Because you don't leave the pocket in RPO.  You realize you're proclaiming laughy face emoji victory while citing a stat that has Stafford, Prescott, and Carr as 3 of the top 7 right?

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Any projections for Thursday night game? Could a stat line similar to the rams game be in play? Seems like a good chance for a ceiling play 

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6 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Because you don't leave the pocket in RPO.  You realize you're proclaiming laughy face emoji victory while citing a stat that has Stafford, Prescott, and Carr as 3 of the top 7 right?

 

Yes I know I am citing a rating system that measures QB passing ability and its shows Lamar is a top passer both in and out of the pocket when the chief criticism against him before this season was that HE COULD NOT PASS because he was a running QB.  The fact that somehow you use Dak, stafford and carr as some implied counter to Lamar or to devalue the passer rating system simply demonstrates you have nothing legitimate to state or a compelling argument. 😂🤣🤣

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

Yes I know I am citing a rating system that measures QB passing ability and its shows Lamar is a top passer both in and out of the pocket when the chief criticism against him before this season was that HE COULD NOT PASS because he was a running QB.  The fact that somehow you use Dak, stafford and carr as some implied counter to Lamar or to devalue the passer rating system simply demonstrates you have nothing legitimate to state or a compelling argument. 😂🤣🤣

 

I've stated my case on Lamar in the Jimmy Garoppolo thread while comparing their long term futures.  In my opinion, Lamar has had an amazing season and the Ravens have done a great job building the offense around his skills, but he stands little chance for long term success because he is really no different than the other handful of "never seen before" athletes that came before him who all flamed out of the league once they had to rely on pure passing (Kordell Stewart, RGIII, Kapernick) whether due to league designing against them or the toll it took on their body.  Any success from the QB position that skirts reading a defense, making a quick decision, and an accurate throw is just short term, in my opinion.  The league catches up, quickly.  There will be a whole slew of players drafted next year with the sole purpose of containing Lamar Jackson.  If I were to guess, once the Pats play them again in the playoffs, they will pound Lamar every snap whether he hands off the ball on RPO or not.  Defenders are guessing right now, when really they should just blow up Lamar and accept whatever consequence with Ingram because the Ravens won't continue to let Lamar get rocked like that.

I'm not one to create moving goalposts of success measurements, I see it with Garoppolo and it drives me mad.  I also realize its highly unpopular to take a contrasting stance in the middle of a guy's apex of success.  But as usual, history is my citation.  No QB in modern NFL history has had long term success while having running be such a prominent part of their game.  Any QB who started off running either morphed to a pure passer or fizzled out of the league.  If Lamar proves me wrong, god bless him, but I'm ok with being proven wrong by an outlier in Modern NFL history.  My wager is when we are talking about Lamar Jackson in 7 years it won't be for anything he's currently doing, it will be a nostalgic reference to the "next" Lamar Jackson super-athlete that comes along.

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26 minutes ago, HOF12 said:

Any projections for Thursday night game? Could a stat line similar to the rams game be in play? Seems like a good chance for a ceiling play 

He is averaging 27.29 fantasy points in standard Yahoo scoring I believe (most of any player). 

Vs. the Jets at home, I would expect something around that.

Anything from 25-30 I think is likely.

Of course he could dud and give us 18 or blow up for 40. Who knows. 

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21 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

  No QB in modern NFL history has had long term success while having running be such a prominent part of their game. 

Any QB who started off running either morphed to a pure passer or fizzled out of the league. 

 

If Lamar proves me wrong, god bless him, but I'm ok with being proven wrong by an outlier in Modern NFL history.  My wager is when we are talking about Lamar Jackson in 7 years it won't be for anything he's currently doing, it will be a nostalgic reference to the "next" Lamar Jackson super-athlete that comes along.

 

That statement is one of the silliest ones I keep coming across when people argue against "running" QB's.  Pure passers fizzle out of the league by the dozens every season. You don't MORPH into a pure passer or transform into one if you could never throw the ball to begin with meaning if you never had the skills to make the accurate throws required of an NFL  QB being a PURE PASSER is not a solution, being a better QB and adapting your skills and limiting your flaws to increase your efficiency and productivity is the solution for success as a QB.

Lamar has proven from last season to this season he can make the accurate throws. He worked on his craft and he adapted.  😂

Every single NFL QB with a long career of success has had to modify or adapt their game to compensate for deteriorating athleticism or physical limitations or changes imposed upon them by defenses. How many times have we seen Peyton adapt his game during his career until his final season when his arm failed him completely, or Brady learning to process quickly , dump the ball off or throw it away to compensate for his immobility? Big Ben adapted by getting rid of the ball quicker instead of carrying 3 defenders hanging off of him while trying to make a throw 😂

So if Lamar has a long successful career it's because he will adapt like all of the successful QB's have adapted and I would assume as he gets older he will need to run less because he will be better at reading defenses and exploiting them. it's called EVOLVING as a player. 

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, HOF12 said:

Any projections for Thursday night game? Could a stat line similar to the rams game be in play? Seems like a good chance for a ceiling play 

 

Biggest risk is getting pulled again. I just can't imagine the Jets can hang with this team. With any luck, a Thursday game acts as some kind of equalizer and allows the Jets to hang.

It would be just like the Jets I must say to give up a huuuuge long running TD to Lamar though. He's due to take a 70+ yarder to the house. In prime time.

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