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Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook


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13 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree.  I'm really starting to wonder if the whole draft QB late and QB's are a dime a dozen mentality has gone just a little too far.

I get the whole position scarcity thing.  But stud players are stud players.  Looking back at our drafts, how many players now would've rather taken Lamar in the 3rd, 4th or 5th round instead of some other bust player you ended up taking?

I probably still wouldn't take Lamar in the first 2-3 rounds next year but I'm not automatically crossing guys like Lamar and Mahomes off in the third round and forward.  I'd rather take those guys than draft some guy that is unproven and mostly just praying he hits like OJ Howard, Kerryon Johnson, David Montgomery, etc, etc.

I'm not even sure we've seen the best of Lamar yet and he really doesn't have a great WR corps to even work with right now.  If they add to that a bit he could get even scarier.

He's gonna be on a lot of fantasy winners rosters.  

 

Yeah I'm actually coming around to the idea that L-Jax might just be worth drafting early in 2020. And I wait on QB every year.

I got L-Jax in the eighth round, but if I'd reached for him in the first instead of James Conner, would my team really be any different?

He's been an overwhelming positional advantage. And the usual argument against selecting last year's overall QB1, which is that they always regress, may not hold water. There's not really anything fluky about his production. Nobody in the league has been able to even slow him down and he may actually improve as a passer.

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I’m worried that his quad may tighten up tomorrow and won’t be right next week.   exploring other options

Benched again...wish I had a QB who could play the entire game! Might try to find one of those interchangeable ones on the waiver wire for next week. 

17 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree.  I'm really starting to wonder if the whole draft QB late and QB's are a dime a dozen mentality has gone just a little too far.

I get the whole position scarcity thing.  But stud players are stud players.  Looking back at our drafts, how many players now would've rather taken Lamar in the 3rd, 4th or 5th round instead of some other bust player you ended up taking?

I probably still wouldn't take Lamar in the first 2-3 rounds next year but I'm not automatically crossing guys like Lamar and Mahomes off in the third round and forward.  I'd rather take those guys than draft some guy that is unproven and mostly just praying he hits like OJ Howard, Kerryon Johnson, David Montgomery, etc, etc.

I'm not even sure we've seen the best of Lamar yet and he really doesn't have a great WR corps to even work with right now.  If they add to that a bit he could get even scarier.

He's gonna be on a lot of fantasy winners rosters.  

 

I honestly can't fault anyone who grabs a lamar or mahommes in the 3rd rd or the 2/3 wrap around. These 2 QB's are difference makers in systems that are designed to be explosive.  One could argue Deshaun is a difference maker too but i have always avoided him simply because he holds onto the ball too long looking for the big downfield play and taking ridiculous hits. he needs to learn how to focus on efficiently moving chains.  I never liked his risk reward profile in terms of high draft capital.  I will of course wait and grab the cheap upside to severely undervalued QB because that's what i like to do. 

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23 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

Yeah I'm actually coming around to the idea that L-Jax might just be worth drafting early in 2020. And I wait on QB every year.

I got L-Jax in the eighth round, but if I'd reached for him in the first instead of James Conner, would my team really be any different?

He's been an overwhelming positional advantage. And the usual argument against selecting last year's overall QB1, which is that they always regress, may not hold water. There's not really anything fluky about his production. Nobody in the league has been able to even slow him down and he may actually improve as a passer.

 

His production absolutely is flukey. He had 15 completions and 5 were for tuddies. That type of ratio of completion to TD is absolutely not sustainable whatsoever. It's similar to when a baseball player has an extreme ratio of their flyballs turning into homeruns. Regression is absolutely coming though he will still be fantastic.

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I think it’s reasonable to assume some regression next season from Lamar.  Opposing defences will slowly figure out the Ravens offence and with his run volume his body is going to wear more like a RB than a QB.  He’s a star that will burn bright and fast.  
 

The flip side is most RBs hit their peak right around season three.  And Lamar and the Ravens D is difficult to play scheme because it is more based on skill and athleticism than trickery.  
 

I think round three of four is where I would feel comfortable drafting him.  Unfortunately I feel like he will probably go in the 2nd.  Hell Mahommes went in the first round of one of the leagues I’m in this year.  

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18 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

His production absolutely is flukey.

He had 15 completions and 5 were for tuddies. That type of ratio of completion to TD is absolutely not sustainable whatsoever. It's similar to when a baseball player has an extreme ratio of their flyballs turning into homeruns. Regression is absolutely coming though he will still be fantastic.

 

Yes it's so flukey that he passed for 5tds in 3 different games this season

Miami-Rams-Jets

Flukey means it was luck more than actual skill. Flukey doesnt happen in 3 different occurences in 14 games against 3 different NFL defenses. QB's have to read a defense, make the right decision and then make an accurate throw and then the reciever has to catch it. That's not the correct example of flukey. 🤣

 

I think that with most things if the production was historic there will be some sort of regression but to write it off as "flukey" is the wrong take.

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7 minutes ago, lla887 said:

 

I think round three of four is where I would feel comfortable drafting him.  Unfortunately I feel like he will probably go in the 2nd.  Hell Mahommes went in the first round of one of the leagues I’m in this year.  

 

Yeah, the guys who drafted Mahomes in the first round in my two leagues didn't make the playoffs... just sayin... 

It behooves anyone to not chase last year's gold, IMO. Gotta find the new "Mahomes" or the new "Jackson". 

Depending on what Buffalo does next year to their WR corp, I'd probably settle on the value of Josh Allen instead.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yes it's so flukey that he passed for 5tds in 3 different games this season

Miami-Rams-Jets

Flukey means it was luck more than actual skill. Flukey doesnt happen in 3 different occurences in 14 games against 3 different NFL defenses. QB's have to read a defense, make the right decision and then make an accurate throw and then the reciever has to catch it. That's not the correct example of flukey. 🤣

 

I agree.

Frankly, what Lamar has done is amazing.  I mean, look at his volume?  He's hardly cracked 30 passes most games.  I'd say his low volume is what is fluky and that most likely he'll have to start throwing more in the future....Which might just help his fantasy prospects.

He probably won't be able to keep running like he has in future years but he's a young dude and should be good running for at least a few more years.  And I could easily see him adding rushing TD's as "only" having 7 this year feels a little fluky too.  He could have 15 on the ground some year with his ability.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, lla887 said:

I think it’s reasonable to assume some regression next season from Lamar.  Opposing defences will slowly figure out the Ravens offence and with his run volume his body is going to wear more like a RB than a QB.  He’s a star that will burn bright and fast.  
 

The flip side is most RBs hit their peak right around season three.  And Lamar and the Ravens D is difficult to play scheme because it is more based on skill and athleticism than trickery.  
 

I think round three of four is where I would feel comfortable drafting him.  Unfortunately I feel like he will probably go in the 2nd.  Hell Mahommes went in the first round of one of the leagues I’m in this year.  

 

Lamar most likely will go anywhere from $22 to $32 in auction next year. Mahomes went for $22 after his historic season but with Lamar and his joystick highlights will up his value even more. Only way lamar's goes cheap next year is owners worrying that he will have a Mahomes type regression. I think he should be coveted highly next year. Another year of progression with his weapons more experienced will only help.  

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9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yes it's so flukey that he passed for 5tds in 3 different games this season

Miami-Rams-Jets

Flukey means it was luck more than actual skill. Flukey doesnt happen in 3 different occurences in 14 games against 3 different NFL defenses. QB's have to read a defense, make the right decision and then make an accurate throw and then the reciever has to catch it. That's not the correct example of flukey. 🤣

 

I think that with most things if the production was historic there will be some sort of regression but to write it off as "flukey" is the wrong take.

 

Flukey may not be the absolute correct term, but I think the point is obviously clear and not worth a further debate with you.

 

EDIT: Throwing (5) tds on 15 completions is NOT sustainable year to year. My baseball analogy still holds true. It's not a week to week fluke or anamoly. It's a season long anamoly. Lamar Jackson won't have this high a ratio when it comes to completion-TD ratio after this season. So yes, looking back now the ratio THIS season is a bit flukey.

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4 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree.

Frankly, what Lamar has done is amazing.  I mean, look at his volume?  He's hardly cracked 30 passes most games.  I'd say his low volume is what is fluky and that most likely he'll have to start throwing more in the future....Which might just help his fantasy prospects.

He probably won't be able to keep running like he has in future years but he's a young dude and should be good running for at least a few more years.  And I could easily see him adding rushing TD's as "only" having 7 this year feels a little fluky too.  He could have 15 on the ground some year with his ability.

 

 

 

Once he stops/slows down the running, he will absolutely fade the way Cam has. He's a much better runner than Cam ever was, but (like Cam) his passing can't stand alone.

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17 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yeah, the guys who drafted Mahomes in the first round in my two leagues didn't make the playoffs... just sayin... 

It behooves anyone to not chase last year's gold, IMO. Gotta find the new "Mahomes" or the new "Jackson". 

Depending on what Buffalo does next year to their WR corp, I'd probably settle on the value of Josh Allen instead.


This guy gets it.  A strategy I’ve been employing the last couple years is take two high upside guys late and hope one hits.  Last year I took Luck (Coming off the injury), and Mahomes... they both hit. This year Cam, Jameis and Lamar were my targets across 2 leagues (Cam obviously didn’t work).

 

They won’t always hit, but when one does, you’re golden... and you didn’t waste a high draft pick.
 

Lamar will probably go 2nd round I’m guessing in most serious leagues.  That’s too rich for me.

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10 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

I agree.

Frankly, what Lamar has done is amazing.  I mean, look at his volume?  He's hardly cracked 30 passes most games.  I'd say his low volume is what is fluky and that most likely he'll have to start throwing more in the future....Which might just help his fantasy prospects.

He probably won't be able to keep running like he has in future years but he's a young dude and should be good running for at least a few more years.  And I could easily see him adding rushing TD's as "only" having 7 this year feels a little fluky too.  He could have 15 on the ground some year with his ability.

 

 

 

I think that is a good take.

I think the genius of Roman as an OC is being underappreciated.

I also think the execution of the o-line and TE's is not even registering for many, these guys are playing their tails off for their QB

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38 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yeah, the guys who drafted Mahomes in the first round in my two leagues didn't make the playoffs... just sayin... 

It behooves anyone to not chase last year's gold, IMO. Gotta find the new "Mahomes" or the new "Jackson". 

Depending on what Buffalo does next year to their WR corp, I'd probably settle on the value of Josh Allen instead.

This is what veteran fantasy football players should do. I usually like to draft two QBs just to see what happens. Next year Allen and Kyler Murray are perfect later round targets. The whole trick to the game is getting a bigger return for your draft pick. Lamar is going to be too expensive next year and carry too much risk to repeat a season this great. 

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53 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

This is what veteran fantasy football players should do. I usually like to draft two QBs just to see what happens. Next year Allen and Kyler Murray are perfect later round targets. The whole trick to the game is getting a bigger return for your draft pick. Lamar is going to be too expensive next year and carry too much risk to repeat a season this great. 

 

 

I dont think Kyler will be a later round pick, if someone starts an early run on QB's don't be surprised if he is the 4th or 5th QB off the board by rd 5. Cards pass on 62% of their plays which ranks #6 or 7 . Murray and the young wr's are only going to get better next year.

Allen i'm never confident in with a ru heavy Bills offense and strong defense. so I have a hard time valuing him. 

Lamar+Mahommes will be the cream of the crop Tier1 picks gone in rds 2-3

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25 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

I was firmly in the, 'Lamar will be a WR in the NFL camp' when he came into the league. I was 100% wrong and apologize to those who heeded my advice. He will be a Quarterback.

 

 

Don't feel bad, he splits outside on occasion. 

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1 hour ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yeah, the guys who drafted Mahomes in the first round in my two leagues didn't make the playoffs... just sayin... 

It behooves anyone to not chase last year's gold, IMO. Gotta find the new "Mahomes" or the new "Jackson". 

Depending on what Buffalo does next year to their WR corp, I'd probably settle on the value of Josh Allen instead.

 

So what you are actually saying is the sucks at drafting and missed on the rest of his 13 picks and was terrible on the waiver and trading for the season?  I wouldnt blame his failure to make the playoffs on taking a QB early 🤣

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I've had Lamar on 2 of my three teams this season and have watched most of his games.  One of the reasons Lamar can get so many yards is because he is a QB that runs like a RB, BUT he is a Protected Class on the football field.  Defenders can't use the same type of power when tackling him or hit him the same way they would do to a RB without getting penalized.  So this allows him to act like a RB that can't get hit properly, which is exploiting to the fullest.

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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

His production absolutely is flukey. He had 15 completions and 5 were for tuddies. That type of ratio of completion to TD is absolutely not sustainable whatsoever. It's similar to when a baseball player has an extreme ratio of their flyballs turning into homeruns. Regression is absolutely coming though he will still be fantastic.

What?

1) You're cherry picking one game's stats (He has 33 TD's and 6 INT's on the season: is that flukey?)

2) You're ignoring that he moved the ball down the field and into the red zone using his unprecedented rushing ability (8 carries for 86 yards)

3) It's not his fault that the Jet's defense isn't very good

 

Overall: He has 14 games under his belt this year and has excellent production across the board. He only went below 20 fantasy points in 1 game! His production is the exact opposite of flukey. The only question is if he can sustain this amazing production and for how many seasons. 

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1 minute ago, Smoketheclay said:

I've had Lamar on 2 of my three teams this season and have watched most of his games.  One of the reasons Lamar can get so many yards is because he is a QB that runs like a RB, BUT he is a Protected Class on the football field.  Defenders can't use the same type of power when tackling him or hit him the same way they would do to a RB without getting penalized.  So this allows him to act like a RB that can't get hit properly, which is exploiting to the fullest.

 

I would say he doesnt initiate contact the way a rb would and he is not fighting or lowering his shoulders to get that extra yard. There is no opportunity for defenders to gang tackle him which is why you see individual takedowns. 

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9 minutes ago, Smoketheclay said:

One of the reasons Lamar can get so many yards is because he is a QB that runs like a RB, BUT he is a Protected Class on the football field.  Defenders can't use the same type of power when tackling him or hit him the same way they would do to a RB without getting penalized.  So this allows him to act like a RB that can't get hit properly, which is exploiting to the fullest.

Yeah, has nothing to do with the fact that Lamar is elusive and accelerates on cuts and defenders rarely can square up on him.

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1 minute ago, mbell317 said:

What?

1) You're cherry picking one game's stats (He has 33 TD's and 6 INT's on the season: is that flukey?)

2) You're ignoring that he moved the ball down the field and into the red zone using his unprecedented rushing ability (8 carries for 86 yards)

3) It's not his fault that the Jet's defense isn't very good

 

Overall: He has 14 games under his belt this year and has excellent production across the board. He only went below 20 fantasy points in 1 game! His production is the exact opposite of flukey. The only question is if he can sustain this amazing production and for how many seasons. 

 

None of what you said supports the more important baseball analogy of flukey.😂

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2 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Yeah, has nothing to do with the fact that Lamar is elusive and accelerates on cuts and defenders rarely can square up on him.

 

Not sure why so many people say he runs like a RB when he actually doesnt run like a rb. Dude is simply a QB who is also an amazing runner if you give him an inch of space. 

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