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Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook


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2 hours ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yeah, the guys who drafted Mahomes in the first round in my two leagues didn't make the playoffs... just sayin... 

It behooves anyone to not chase last year's gold, IMO. Gotta find the new "Mahomes" or the new "Jackson". 

Depending on what Buffalo does next year to their WR corp, I'd probably settle on the value of Josh Allen instead.

Arguing that something was a bad decision because the person got hurt is just so lazy.

 

Mahomes was easily on pace to be a top-3 QB.

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I’m worried that his quad may tighten up tomorrow and won’t be right next week.   exploring other options

Benched again...wish I had a QB who could play the entire game! Might try to find one of those interchangeable ones on the waiver wire for next week. 

9 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Arguing that something was a bad decision because the person got hurt is just so lazy.

 

Mahomes was easily on pace to be a top-3 QB.

 

Huh? I never said anything about an injury. I am merely asserting that taking a QB early isn't a good idea. 

[...]

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34 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

So what you are actually saying is the sucks at drafting and missed on the rest of his 13 picks and was terrible on the waiver and trading for the season?  I wouldnt blame his failure to make the playoffs on taking a QB early 🤣

 

Lol...Taking a QB that early certainly didn't help those teams. Just an observation is all. 

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13 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Not sure why so many people say he runs like a RB when he actually doesnt run like a rb. Dude is simply a QB who is also an amazing runner if you give him an inch of space. 

His point doesn't even make sense because once QBs run, they are fair game unless they're sliding which Lamar rarely does.

I think some people just need to diminish or downplay what Lamar is doing.

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7 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

 

Huh? I never said anything about an injury. I am merely asserting that taking a QB early isn't a good idea. 

[...]

You essentially said Mahomes wasn’t worth his early draft value.

He got injured. Of course he wasn’t.

Him getting injured doesn’t make it a bad pick or change the value.
 

People drafted Mahomes early to get a surefire top 3 QB which is what he was until he got hurt.

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4 minutes ago, Finisher said:

His point doesn't even make sense because once QBs run, they are fair game unless they're sliding which Lamar rarely does.

I think some people just need to diminish or downplay what Lamar is doing.

 

Tyrod Taylor and Kapernick had their best production in a Greg Roman offense using their mobility.

Lamar is overall a better class of athlete than either and his QB skills combined with his running ability takes Romans offense to another level

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1 minute ago, Ruut6 said:

You essentially said Mahomes wasn’t worth his early draft value.

He got injured. Of course he wasn’t.

Him getting injured doesn’t make it a bad pick or change the value.
 

People drafted Mahomes early to get a surefire top 3 QB which is what he was until he got hurt.

 

Aaaand that's the risk you take with your one QB that you play per week.. Even if Mahomes was a top-tier 3 QB, you missed out on prime WR/RB candidates. 

Even in the 2nd round, let alone 1st Round... I'll have Nick Chubb in Round 2, Chris Carson in Round 3 and Josh Allen in Round 11. 

Fantasy football drafting 101. 

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39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I dont think Kyler will be a later round pick, if someone starts an early run on QB's don't be surprised if he is the 4th or 5th QB off the board by rd 5. Cards pass on 62% of their plays which ranks #6 or 7 . Murray and the young wr's are only going to get better next year.

Allen i'm never confident in with a ru heavy Bills offense and strong defense. so I have a hard time valuing him. 

Lamar+Mahommes will be the cream of the crop Tier1 picks gone in rds 2-3

Again we all value players differently and no doubt Lamar and mahomes will be round 2-3 picks but That’s what I’m trying to say I don’t chase points. Fantasy football is like the stock market. You going to buy a stock that just doubled in price? Most cases that’s not a winning scenario. That’s a risky pick to make that early after this historic season when there are other good options available later. Murray probably won’t be a 4-5th round QB in most leagues. Watson was taken around round 5-6 this year how is Murray going to be round 4-5 next year. And running QBs are what you want. You know that Allen has more rushing TDs than lamar. He’s only going to get better at passing and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs even more next year. Anyway that’s just my opinion lamar has been great but a big part of that is because he was taken super late in drafts so you got a HUGE return in your investment. If he was taken say in round 3 he would still be worth it but the return wouldn’t be the same.

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6 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

You essentially said Mahomes wasn’t worth his early draft value.

He got injured. Of course he wasn’t.

Him getting injured doesn’t make it a bad pick or change the value.
 

People drafted Mahomes early to get a surefire top 3 QB which is what he was until he got hurt.

 

Well that's funny. Half this thread is full of dudes being contrarian about Lamar because injury is apparently inevitable and it'll all come crashing down.

That's one of, if not the most common take from all these talking heads and bitter fans who refuse to admit they were wrong about him in the first place. "Yeah, he's good now but mobile QBs always get hurt. Just you wait! It's not sustainable!".

Now the same logic can't be applied to Mahomes?

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23 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

What?

1) You're cherry picking one game's stats (He has 33 TD's and 6 INT's on the season: is that flukey?)

2) You're ignoring that he moved the ball down the field and into the red zone using his unprecedented rushing ability (8 carries for 86 yards)

3) It's not his fault that the Jet's defense isn't very good

 

Overall: He has 14 games under his belt this year and has excellent production across the board. He only went below 20 fantasy points in 1 game! His production is the exact opposite of flukey. The only question is if he can sustain this amazing production and for how many seasons. 


I’m not cherry picking one game though, man. This is just the most recent example. All (3) of his (5) td games include a total of 47 completions. That ratio is not sustainable.

Lamar moves the call with his legs? Ok? Water is wet. Your pointing out that he moved the ball with his legs has literally nothing to do with what I was talking about and no one ever disagreed with that...So ok?

-His rushing ability is in a league of its own (I haven’t seen anyone dispute this.) Once it slows down, his ability as a passer isn’t good enough to stand on its own. Can it improve? Sure, but as of now, not in my opinion.

-His completion to td ratio is absolutely not sustainable.

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1 minute ago, dropshadows said:

 

Aaaand that's the risk you take with your one QB that you play per week.. Even if Mahomes was a top-tier 3 QB, you missed out on prime WR/RB candidates. 

Even in the 2nd round, let alone 1st Round... I'll have Nick Chubb in Round 2, Chris Carson in Round 3 and Josh Allen in Round 11. 

Fantasy football drafting 101. 

Lolol this is hilarious logic.

 

If I just hit on all of my picks it’ll prove drafting a QB early is dumb!
 

I could just flip this logic into drafting a high performing early round QB and high performing low round RBs/WRs like Chark, Ekeler, Parker, etc. but the argument doesn’t make any sense so no need to.

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3 minutes ago, Sartorialism said:

 

Well that's funny. Half this thread is full of dudes being contrarian about Lamar because injury is apparently inevitable and it'll all come crashing down.

That's one of, if not the most common take from all these talking heads and bitter fans who refuse to admit they were wrong about him in the first place. "Yeah, he's good now but mobile QBs always get hurt. Just you wait! It's not sustainable!".

Now the same logic can't be applied to Mahomes?

Did I make those arguments? No.

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3 minutes ago, Sartorialism said:

 

Well that's funny. Half this thread is full of dudes being contrarian about Lamar because injury is apparently inevitable and it'll all come crashing down.

That's one of, if not the most common take from all these talking heads and bitter fans who refuse to admit they were wrong about him in the first place. "Yeah, he's good now but mobile QBs always get hurt. Just you wait! It's not sustainable!".

Now the same logic can't be applied to Mahomes?


Mahomes wasn’t going to repeat his 2018 season. I think that was pretty widely known/expected around here.

Mahomes is a COMPLETELY different type of QB than Jackson so I’m not sure I follow the comparison. Mahomes style of play will age (last longer) much better than Jackson’s style of play IMO.

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1 minute ago, dropshadows said:

No idea why "spending a 1st round on a QB is too expensive" is a hot take.

Anyways, congrats to those of us who have Lamar Jackson stocks this year. 

Mahomes wasn’t a 1st round fantasy pick he was like a 4th. And the 29 point per game pace before he got injured was completely justifying that 4th round pick.
 

I’m someone who never takes a QB early (hence why I’m here, I took Lamar as my first QB) either.

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Just now, ThreadKiller said:


I’m not cherry picking one game. This is just the most recent example. All (3) of his (5) td games include a total of 47 completions. That ratio is not sustainable.

Lamar moves the call with his legs? Ok? Water is wet. Your pointing out that he moved the ball with his legs has literally nothing to do with what I was talking about and no one ever disagreed with that...So ok?

-His rushing ability is in a league of its own. Once it slows down, his ability as a passer isn’t good enough to stand on its own. Can it improve? Sure, but as of now, not in my opinion.

-His completion to td ratio is absolutely not sustainable.

 

This is very true, his TD% is not sustainable, he is currently at 8.9% which is well above the average. For some context, Russel Wilson closed out last year at 8.2% which was his highest % of his career. He currently regressed to 6.1% for this year which is inline with his career rate of 6%. But even with Lamars pass TDs potentially dropping, his rushing is insane, hell still probably be able to repeat as the QB1 overall no problem even with a normalized TD%.

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1 minute ago, ThreadKiller said:


Mahomes wasn’t going to repeat his 2018 season. I think that was pretty widely known/expected around here.

Mahomes is a COMPLETELY different type of QB than Jackson so I’m not sure I follow the comparison. Mahomes style of play will age (last longer) much better than Jackson’s style of play IMO.

Mahomes was fully on his way to repeating his 2018 season until he got hurt.

 

You guys know he was QB5/QB1/QB3/QB13/QB13/QB7 before getting hurt right? He was QB2 IIRC lmao.

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


This guy gets it.  A strategy I’ve been employing the last couple years is take two high upside guys late and hope one hits.  Last year I took Luck (Coming off the injury), and Mahomes... they both hit. This year Cam, Jameis and Lamar were my targets across 2 leagues (Cam obviously didn’t work).

 

They won’t always hit, but when one does, you’re golden... and you didn’t waste a high draft pick.
 

Lamar will probably go 2nd round I’m guessing in most serious leagues.  That’s too rich for me.

 

No one wants to waste a high draft pick.  But you'd be wrong to assume using a high draft pick on a WR/RB is any better.  So far (with varying results due to different scoring formats)... 

    Of the top 10 RB/WRS  only 3 were drafted in the 1st round. 

    Expanding to the top 20 RB/WRS only 8 were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. 

That just looks at the top 10/ 20 picks.  It becomes much more bleak when you take a closer look at their positional tiers. 

    Of the consensus top tier "100%/ sure thing/ can't go wrong with any of them" RBs of Saquon, Zeke, CMC and Kamara.  2 of them ended up good, the other 2 I don't even know        where they are rank wise but it's low. 

    Of the consensus top tier "would love to double up on any of these in the back of the 1st round" WRs of Hopkins, Julio, M. Thomas, JUJU, Odell.  Of the top 10 Wrs only 2 of              them made it... and expanding to the top 20 Wrs only 3 of them made it. 

 

Lastly, I make a good amount of money in fantasy by doing Value based drafting which accounts for weekly point advantage between positions.  If a QB is going to get me 5 more points per week over the next QB... I'll choose the QB over a RB that is going to get me 3 more points per week over the next rb.  

Next year in a 2qb league i will take lamar in the 1st.  In a 1qb league i would take lamar in the 2nd but more than likely take mahommes in the 3rd.  

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27 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:


I’m not cherry picking one game though, man. This is just the most recent example. All (3) of his (5) td games include a total of 47 completions. That ratio is not sustainable.

Lamar moves the call with his legs? Ok? Water is wet. Your pointing out that he moved the ball with his legs has literally nothing to do with what I was talking about and no one ever disagreed with that...So ok?

-His rushing ability is in a league of its own (I haven’t seen anyone dispute this.) Once it slows down, his ability as a passer isn’t good enough to stand on its own. Can it improve? Sure, but as of now, not in my opinion.

-His completion to td ratio is absolutely not sustainable.

Why are you focused only on his 3 games where he had 5 touchdowns? That makes no sense. No one is debating that he won't do that every game. 

I am talking about his production as a whole. Which is obviously not flukey. He has done it consistently for 14 games.

The ability to rush obviously has to do with this because he was able to get the ball into the red zone without a large number of "completions". Would you like it if he had 5-10 more completions of 3 yards each? That would make the stats look better in your mind, right? But he doesn't need to do that. The Ravens strong run game with Ingram also allowed them to move the ball without Lamar having to complete a bunch of 4-6 yard passes.

His mobility allows him to buy time in the pocket and wait for his receivers to get open for big plays. His strong and accurate arm also allowed him to hit his receivers.

His completion to passing TD ratio on the season is 245 to 33. Are you saying that is absolutely not sustainable? Even if it regresses he'd still be QB1. 

Why is Completion to Passing TD the most important stat, exactly? Seems pretty arbitrary and limited. He can just throw more dump passes and then suddenly you won't consider it flukey? Seems dumb. 

Look how flukey this production is. Oh my gosh it's so flukey I can hardly look at it.

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2 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Again we all value players differently and no doubt Lamar and mahomes will be round 2-3 picks but That’s what I’m trying to say I don’t chase points. Fantasy football is like the stock market. You going to buy a stock that just doubled in price? Most cases that’s not a winning scenario. That’s a risky pick to make that early after this historic season when there are other good options available later. Murray probably won’t be a 4-5th round QB in most leagues. Watson was taken around round 5-6 this year how is Murray going to be round 4-5 next year. And running QBs are what you want. You know that Allen has more rushing TDs than lamar. He’s only going to get better at passing and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs even more next year. Anyway that’s just my opinion lamar has been great but a big part of that is because he was taken super late in drafts so you got a HUGE return in your investment. If he was taken say in round 3 he would still be worth it but the return wouldn’t be the same.

 

I don't neccessarily disagree with you but i frame it a touch differently.

Return is based on actual production vs  the expected outcome. So if you draft a guy in the 1st rd who produces as a 1st rd pick then you have the return you expected and this applies to each guy you draft regardless of rd taken.  its when a pick exceeds expectations that you get the huge return as you put it so a rb taken with the 50th pick producing as a top 5 is the huge return. 

The reason you dont spend high draft capital on a QB is opportunity cost due to scarcity value,roster size and depth  vs the other skills positions or TE-rb-wr; not so much "return" based.  wr's and rbs go early because the math is simple you need to start 2-3 of each every week  vs 1 QB and 1 TE and then you can add in the high fragility factor of rb's which increases the scarcity of the position.

The key is drafting a deep position player high vs a scarce position player is that you have to hit on the scarce picks or outperform on the deep picks or have fewer busts relative to the field of competition 😂

Lamar has clearly outproduced all expectations of every player on my roster at least and provided me the highest return and OJ Howard produced the least.

QB is no different than the other positions in that you still want a stud and you still want a top 5 vs your competition, I dont know of anyone who will win a title with Mason Rudolph as their QB. 😂

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1 minute ago, pushaZ said:

I think Lamar is the exception to the "don't take a QB early" rule. And by exception I mean only him and Michael Vick are the exceptions ever.

He's essentially a low end RB1 on top of a QB.

Mahomes is an exception as well.

 

He is QB8 despite missing essentially 3 games. Extrapolate the average of his other 10 games across 13 and he’s QB3 right behind Watson.

 

A healthy Mahomes is a fantastic bet for top 3 with record setting potential. So is Lamar.

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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I don't neccessarily disagree with you but i frame it a touch differently.

Return is based on actual production vs  the expected outcome. So if you draft a guy in the 1st rd who produces as a 1st rd pick then you have the return you expected and this applies to each guy you draft regardless of rd taken.  its when a pick exceeds expectations that you get the huge return as you put it so a rb taken with the 50th pick producing as a top 5 is the huge return. 

The reason you dont spend high draft capital on a QB is opportunity cost due to scarcity value,roster size and depth  vs the other skills positions or TE-rb-wr; not so much "return" based.  wr's and rbs go early because the math is simple you need to start 2-3 of each every week  vs 1 QB and 1 TE and then you can add in the high fragility factor of rb's which increases the scarcity of the position.

The key is drafting a deep position player high vs a scarce position player is that you have to hit on the scarce picks or outperform on the deep picks or have fewer busts relative to the field of competition 😂

Lamar has clearly outproduced all expectations of every player on my roster at least and provided me the highest return and OJ Howard produced the least.

QB is no different than the other positions in that you still want a stud and you still want a top 5 vs your competition, I dont know of anyone who will win a title with Mason Rudolph as their QB. 😂

Yeah I mean I agree with that again lamar has been great and he isn’t interchangeable like one dude has been saying but again his return still wouldn’t be the same if he was drafted 2nd round when you could have taken someone like cook in the second and say Wilson/Allen later. And  I bet that would change things a bit. So for me next year I would rather go that route. I am pretty sure lamar is going to be at least second round next year. And you can still get a top 5 guy in those later rounds. I’m not saying to wait till you end up with a Rudolph on your team.

Edited by StevenSC400
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25 minutes ago, Sartorialism said:

 

. "Yeah, he's good now but mobile QBs always get hurt. Just you wait! It's not sustainable!".

Now the same logic can't be applied to Mahomes?

 

 

Pocket passers missed games vs lamar

Brees, mahommes,Daniel jones,brissett,big ben,Foles,Flacco,Stafford,Driskell, etc 

 

and my favorite is Darnold seeing ghosts 😂

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