Stonej14

Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:
11 minutes ago, yanksman said:

I think Lamar CAN be a top 5 QB this year but no way would i take him as my only QB. With Qb so deep theres no need to do so anyway. Pair him with another solid QB.

 

no one said ONLY, i said your qb1 - big difference. 

 

Actually, it's out there that people are taking Lamar as their only QB, and relying on the waiver wire if Lamar flops.  You've got guys like Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins as like QB17 and QB18....stands to reason you can get a good QB on the waiver wire.

If you take Lamar late, then why take another QB late?  If you go with 2 QBs, it only really makes sense to pick a QB very early then.  Otherwise, you got Lamar and another "safer" guy who you can get a close approximation to on the waiver wire.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

he THINKS ....

caveat there is he "THINKS"

now, given all offseason and such, the fact that the guy only THINKS they're better speaks volumes ... he should KNOW, amirite?

red flag up in here, wow ...

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39 minutes ago, mongidig said:

I think that's a great combo. If Cooper Kupp stay's healthy and Gurley doesn't vulture all the TD's Goff could be huge. He should be steady no matter what. Jackson actually has a very nice floor so it's worth gambling on his upside.

 

The downside to this is....what if you're right about Lamar and he blows up?  You can only play one.  If you begin starting Lamar every week, now you blew a draft pick on Goff, who I assume you picked up in like the 7th or 8th round.  There is plenty of value at RB and WR there.

You can try to trade Goff but with the depth at QB, you're likely not going to get much for him, especially when that owner can go to the waiver wire and get someone fairly close to Goff.

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10 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Actually, it's out there that people are taking Lamar as their only QB, and relying on the waiver wire if Lamar flops.  You've got guys like Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins as like QB17 and QB18....stands to reason you can get a good QB on the waiver wire.

If you take Lamar late, then why take another QB late?  If you go with 2 QBs, it only really makes sense to pick a QB very early then.  Otherwise, you got Lamar and another "safer" guy who you can get a close approximation to on the waiver wire.

 

nah, don't get me wrong here, i salute the "YOLO!!!" yobs who will bareback this cat ... more respect for those daredevils than the hedgers who are too scred to back their gut up with some sack. 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2

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42 minutes ago, mongidig said:

 Jackson actually has a very nice floor so it's worth gambling on his upside.

 

while i like LJAX's floor, generally, i think we need to start talking numbers: week one is less than one week away.

and i would not be surprised to see LJAX's floor bottom out completely: the miami dolphins' defense looks so bad, and their offense is so offensive, that it might be mark ingram, gus the bus, and justice for all.

while it's true that yahoo has LJAX at 20 points this coming week, and that miami gave up the 7th most fantasy points to QBs, why would LJAX throw the ball, let alone run more than 10 yards, vs the dolphins?

5 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

The downside to this is....what if you're right about Lamar and he blows up?  You can only play one.  If you begin starting Lamar every week, now you blew a draft pick on Goff, who I assume you picked up in like the 7th or 8th round.  There is plenty of value at RB and WR there.

You can try to trade Goff but with the depth at QB, you're likely not going to get much for him, especially when that owner can go to the waiver wire and get someone fairly close to Goff.

 

i agree that drafting two QBs in a 12-team non-superflex league is questionable, but it all comes down to draft price and bench size. i do know that i would not want LJAX to be my only QB, and if the bench size warrants it, playing goff or LJAX depending on matchup seems a good strategy.

16 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Actually, it's out there that people are taking Lamar as their only QB, and relying on the waiver wire if Lamar flops. 

 

i agree, it's risky situation trusting in lamar entirely... hopefully, if you're taking LJAX in round 12+, you've netted value elsewhere / earlier.

but an interesting point can be made here, a fact that has owners factchecking to disbelief: only one player out-rushed saquon barkley in both his 2016 and 2017 seasons: lamar jackson

i only hope that LJAX doesn't get crushed into a pile of broken bones by halloween.

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21 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

The downside to this is....what if you're right about Lamar and he blows up?  You can only play one.  If you begin starting Lamar every week, now you blew a draft pick on Goff, who I assume you picked up in like the 7th or 8th round.  There is plenty of value at RB and WR there.

You can try to trade Goff but with the depth at QB, you're likely not going to get much for him, especially when that owner can go to the waiver wire and get someone fairly close to Goff.

There's no downside in taking good players or having depth

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23 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

The downside to this is....what if you're right about Lamar and he blows up?  You can only play one.  If you begin starting Lamar every week, now you blew a draft pick on Goff, who I assume you picked up in like the 7th or 8th round.  There is plenty of value at RB and WR there.

You can try to trade Goff but with the depth at QB, you're likely not going to get much for him, especially when that owner can go to the waiver wire and get someone fairly close to Goff.

I picked Goff late 9th and felt that it was a touch early. I see it more as significantly increasing my chances of having a quality QB by taking both of these guy's. If they are both great then I have fantastic depth and keep another team from having them. 

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34 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Actually, it's out there that people are taking Lamar as their only QB, and relying on the waiver wire if Lamar flops.  You've got guys like Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins as like QB17 and QB18....stands to reason you can get a good QB on the waiver wire.

If you take Lamar late, then why take another QB late?  If you go with 2 QBs, it only really makes sense to pick a QB very early then.  Otherwise, you got Lamar and another "safer" guy who you can get a close approximation to on the waiver wire.

This may be true in a ten team league. In the competitive 12 teamer I am in everybody has at least two QB's so there is not much on the waiver wire. We actually do a FAAB so Its better to get the guy's you like now than have to spend your budget on a player to be determined later. Even then you never know what will pop up.

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Quick...can anyone name one Baltimore receiver? 

 

Last year, he took defenses by surprise. This year they should see 8-9!in the box and let him throw

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23 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

while i like LJAX's floor, generally, i think we need to start talking numbers: week one is less than one week away.

and i would not be surprised to see LJAX's floor bottom out completely: the miami dolphins' defense looks so bad, and their offense is so offensive, that it might be mark ingram, gus the bus, and justice for all.

while it's true that yahoo has LJAX at 20 points this coming week, and that miami gave up the 7th most fantasy points to QBs, why would LJAX throw the ball, let alone run more than 10 yards, vs the dolphins?

Quote

You never know how the game script may play out. Baltimore may get out to a big lead because Jackson scored a lot of points. Miami having a bad defense and giving up the 7th most points last year is a good thing for Jackson in my book.

i agree that drafting two QBs in a 12-team non-superflex league is questionable, but it all comes down to draft price and bench size. i do know that i would not want LJAX to be my only QB, and if the bench size warrants it, playing goff or LJAX depending on matchup seems a good strategy.

 

i agree, it's risky situation trusting in lamar entirely... hopefully, if you're taking LJAX in round 12+, you've netted value elsewhere / earlier.

but an interesting point can be made here, a fact that has owners factchecking to disbelief: only one player out-rushed saquon barkley in both his 2016 and 2017 seasons: lamar jackson

i only hope that LJAX doesn't get crushed into a pile of broken bones by halloween.

 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Whom said:

Quick...can anyone name one Baltimore receiver? 

 

Last year, he took defenses by surprise. This year they should see 8-9!in the box and let him throw

 

yeah, but ... he's surrounded by an incredible braintrust of qb gurus, and he's had all offseason to improve his mechanics ... and his coach THINKS he's improved. 

 

THINKS! not KNOWS ...THINKS!!

whooooo, doctor!

this is gonna be an interesting thread ...

::popcorn::

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Quick...can anyone name one Baltimore receiver? 

 

Last year, he took defenses by surprise. This year they should see 8-9!in the box and let him throw

 

They cannot be any worse than last season - that is a fact.

They drafted two studs: Marquise Brown and Miles Boykins.  They still have Snead as well and some good TEs in Andrews/Hurst.

Don't forget Justice Hill.  They have really filled that offense with speed.

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Quick...can anyone name one Baltimore receiver? 

 

Last year, he took defenses by surprise. This year they should see 8-9!in the box and let him throw

Which Defense was surprised that Lamar Jackson is really fast?

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2 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

impressive stuff, kudos 👍

bur, i gotta ask ... are you Lamar's agent? his Momma? wait, are you actually Lamar himself??!?

tell ya what, sporto ... i am 1000% certain Allen outscores this cat this season ... PM me and we'll chuck a sizable wager down - money where the mouth is.  ball's in your court. 

as for the rest of you, i already wished you luck, and said i hope it works out for you and him.   simple enuff. 

see you all at the finish line. 


Well that's one way to completely ignore information that someone presents because you don't have a rebuttal... 

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Many are suggesting taking LJ as their starting QB, then using the waiver wire to find another QB if necessary. Problem is, QBs on the waiver wire are there for a reason. They’re not very good, fantasy-wise. If LJ doesn’t pan out, or gets injured and you’re forced to plug in a waiver wire QB you’re at a significant disadvantage vs your opponents at the highest scoring position in our lineups. QB is deep, but the deeper you go the worse and more inconsistent they are. Also, there’s going to be a few teams in your league that roster backup QBs leaving you with even fewer options.

I just feel like this fallback plan for LJ owners is a bit too optimistic. If he booms and stays healthy it won’t matter. But if he takes a shot week 1 and is out for the year your fantasy season may hinge on Andy Dalton, which probably won’t be much fun.

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1 hour ago, ludawg23 said:

 

They cannot be any worse than last season - that is a fact.

They drafted two studs: Marquise Brown and Miles Boykins.  They still have Snead as well and some good TEs in Andrews/Hurst.

Don't forget Justice Hill.  They have really filled that offense with speed.

Are we just not mentioning John Brown?

Has Crabtree even signed with a team yet?

Edited by BMcP

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Are we just not mentioning John Brown?

Has Crabtree even signed with a team yet?

He signed with the Bills during the offseason

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1 minute ago, ludawg23 said:

He signed with the Bills during the offseason

I guess he ended up with the Cards a few weeks after his tryout.  Point being, they really didn’t have any good receivers last season.

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

yeah, but ... he's surrounded by an incredible braintrust of qb gurus, and he's had all offseason to improve his mechanics ... and his coach THINKS he's improved. 

 

THINKS! not KNOWS ...THINKS!!

whooooo, doctor!

this is gonna be an interesting thread ...

::popcorn::

 

Aren't we here for fantasy? I really don't care if his mechanics have improved. At the end of the days its about putting points on the board and that's exactly what he's going to do. You do remember Josh Allen being a fantasy asset at the end of last year correct?

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11 minutes ago, m_cox22 said:

 

Aren't we here for fantasy? I really don't care if his mechanics have improved. At the end of the days its about putting points on the board and that's exactly what he's going to do. You do remember Josh Allen being a fantasy asset at the end of last year correct?

Improved mechanics should result in more fantasy points - as should an improved arsenal of receivers.

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I took a chance on Lamar in the 10th and grabbed Josh Allen with my last pick. I think at least one of them will go off this year

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5 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

If you're a Lamar believer, do you take another QB earlier and treat Lamar like a sleeper (or play matchups), or do you only take Lamar and play the waiver wire if he flops?  QB is so deep this year you can get a Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garappolo on the waiver and not kill your team.

I have Brees and Goff in a 10. I think there are a few QB2s that are worth it, especially if you like them. But after that? Yeah, guys like Jimmy G are going undrafted in the vast majority of leagues. Stream the wire. No reason to draft 2 QBs if you only have 1 good one.

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4 hours ago, yanksman said:

There's no downside in taking good players or having depth

Garbage take. Opportunity cost is always clear and present.

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Josh allen was the qb1 from weeks 12 thru 17 last year. Lamar jackson was the qb6. Josh allen never passed for over 231 yards and had a completion percentage over 60% once. However he ran for a gazillion yards and had 5 rushing TDs to go with only 8 passing tds.

Michael vick was the qb2 overall in 2006 when he had 1000 yards rushing and only 2 rushing tds.  He also only passed for 2500 yards and 20 tds.

Rushing for qbs is like cheating. If passing TDs are still only 4pts per TD then it only magnifies their rushing skills in fantasy. 

Since 2000 we've had 8 qbs rush for 700 yards or more. 7 of those 8 qbs have finished as a top 5 qb that year. I think we all expect lamar to blow by 700 rushing yards. His passing doesnt need to be great. Josh allen was the qb1 for a 6 week span and he averaged 207 passing yards per game. That's just over 3200 passing yards on the season. 

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