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Matt Boyd 2019 Outlook

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This guy's stock is dropping every start.

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I made the mistake of looking at the k’s and his fip/xfip and thinking my league mate gave up on someone who would turn around and provide value. He made one start for my team and that’s the last he’ll make. I can’t drop him fast enough right now. 

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I made the mistake of looking at the k’s and his fip/xfip and thinking my league mate gave up on someone who would turn around and provide value. He made one start for my team and that’s the last he’ll make. I can’t drop him fast enough right now. 

 

I have never been a full believer in xfip/fip .  I do not believe it to any more predictive than ERA.  It may apply to some pitchers but at the same time do not believe it is accurate a lot of the time.  No more or less than ERA.

 

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4 hours ago, B&F said:

 

I have never been a full believer in xfip/fip .  I do not believe it to any more predictive than ERA.  It may apply to some pitchers but at the same time do not believe it is accurate a lot of the time.  No more or less than ERA.

 

It is still A LOT more predicative then ERA, but it makes sweeping assumptions. Change ups are better weak contact pitches and better against opposite handed hitters then sliders, but silders have higher whiff rates on average. So FIP is bias towards sliders over change ups. Fastballs, despite being the most used pitch. Make up a smaller percentage of a players whiffs for most pitchers.

Command/control are not always exclusive. BB rates only measure control. Guys with great control and poor command leave way too many hit-able fastballs in comparison to the average pitcher.. 

Depth of arsenal helps with sequencing and keeping hitters off balance. Leaning on 1-2 pitches makes you more predictable, so your command/control and stuff requirements are higher. Any off day you are screwed.

The principle of FIP makes sense, but it ignores all nuances that matter. 

Edited by Slatykamora
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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

It is still A LOT more predicative then ERA, but it makes sweeping assumptions. Change ups are better weak contact pitches and better against opposite handed hitters then sliders, but silders have higher whiff rates on average. So FIP is bias towards sliders over change ups. Fastballs, despite being the most used pitch. Make up a smaller percentage of a players whiffs for most pitchers.

Command/control are not always exclusive. BB rates only measure control. Guys with great control and poor command leave way too many hit-able fastballs in comparison to the average pitcher.. 

Depth of arsenal helps with sequencing and keeping hitters off balance. Leaning on 1-2 pitches makes you more predictable, so your command/control and stuff requirements are higher. Any off day you are screwed.

The principle of FIP makes sense, but it ignores all nuances that matter. 

It's not just FIP, his K to BB has been uber elite all season. That's usually a really fantastic indicator. 

I think he's just a rarity in that he got to those numbers mostly relying on one great pitch, his slider. I might hold if I were in a league where wins aren't super important, but in any where they're a big thing I think he's a drop - even if he fixes this, he's still a Tiger, after all. 

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48 minutes ago, rcarena said:

It's not just FIP, his K to BB has been uber elite all season. That's usually a really fantastic indicator. 

I think he's just a rarity in that he got to those numbers mostly relying on one great pitch, his slider. I might hold if I were in a league where wins aren't super important, but in any where they're a big thing I think he's a drop - even if he fixes this, he's still a Tiger, after all. 

 

The lack of wins isn’t what is concerning most people. It’s the number of home runs he’s consistently giving up. Lack of wins certainly doesn’t help but I’ll hold a guy even if he’s not giving me wins if he can keep the ball in the yard. You can’t say that about Boyd. 

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12 hours ago, B&F said:

 

I have never been a full believer in xfip/fip .  I do not believe it to any more predictive than ERA.  It may apply to some pitchers but at the same time do not believe it is accurate a lot of the time.  No more or less than ERA.

 

 

7 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

It is still A LOT more predicative then ERA, but it makes sweeping assumptions.

 

48 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

 

The article was interesting. But ERA is always going to be more predictive of itself -when conditions remain constant- (but that's key) simply because it's the exact same number using the exact same factors, including defense, which is a big part of ERA.

If a pitcher gets traded, or the team gets a new shortstop, or w/e then yeah, one of the other numbers which factors out defense might be more reliable.

The reason why people feel like FIP/xFIP,SIERA, etc. are more predictive is because FIP and xFIP are mostly just the average ERA of every pitcher that season, adjusted slightly by Ks, BBs, and HRs. Because it's based on that average, you don't get the wild variance you do with regular ERA. But it's not "predictive" to come up with a number that is mostly based on a constant we already know (average ERA for that season). It's just more stable. SIERA accomplishes this in a different way that also factors out defense using Ks, BBs, GBs, FBs, and PUs.

When you look at ERA, just look at it as a reflection of the pitcher + defense around him. So long as the defense remains constant, ERA should be the most reliable number, given a large enough sample size. The other numbers try to factor out defense, which can be useful in just look at a pitcher's individual performance. But it's probably incorrect to call them "more predictive" in situations where the pitcher is surrounded by the same defense.

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

The lack of wins isn’t what is concerning most people. It’s the number of home runs he’s consistently giving up. Lack of wins certainly doesn’t help but I’ll hold a guy even if he’s not giving me wins if he can keep the ball in the yard. You can’t say that about Boyd. 

Oh I agree. I'm just saying that I'm not sure the reward is worth the wait here if alternatives to roster are out there, because on top of waiting out his struggles, it's not like wins are coming easily. 

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Definitely someone to consider dropping before going into the fantasy playoffs. I don’t know if he’ll turn things around. 

Edited by y2jbones

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It’s just baffling to me that he’s as bad as he is due to where he ranks in terms of a lot of metrics. He’s near the top of the league in k-bb%, SwStr%, xFIP, and SIERRA. But he’s also one of the worst in terms of fly ball % and hard hit %. 

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1 hour ago, y2jbones said:

Definitely someone to consider dropping before going into the fantasy playoffs. I don’t know if he’ll turn things around. 

 

of course it all depends on league size

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1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:

It’s just baffling to me that he’s as bad as he is due to where he ranks in terms of a lot of metrics. He’s near the top of the league in k-bb%, SwStr%, xFIP, and SIERRA. But he’s also one of the worst in terms of fly ball % and hard hit %. 

 

Can you compare that to Drew Smyly or send me a link to the site use?  I'm glancing at them both in the MLB.com stats and they seem similar in profile but I can't seem to find k-bb%, swstr%, etc. 

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On 8/14/2019 at 1:32 PM, Fiveohnine said:

 

 

 

The article was interesting. But ERA is always going to be more predictive of itself -when conditions remain constant- (but that's key) simply because it's the exact same number using the exact same factors, including defense, which is a big part of ERA.

If a pitcher gets traded, or the team gets a new shortstop, or w/e then yeah, one of the other numbers which factors out defense might be more reliable.

The reason why people feel like FIP/xFIP,SIERA, etc. are more predictive is because FIP and xFIP are mostly just the average ERA of every pitcher that season, adjusted slightly by Ks, BBs, and HRs. Because it's based on that average, you don't get the wild variance you do with regular ERA. But it's not "predictive" to come up with a number that is mostly based on a constant we already know (average ERA for that season). It's just more stable. SIERA accomplishes this in a different way that also factors out defense using Ks, BBs, GBs, FBs, and PUs.

When you look at ERA, just look at it as a reflection of the pitcher + defense around him. So long as the defense remains constant, ERA should be the most reliable number, given a large enough sample size. The other numbers try to factor out defense, which can be useful in just look at a pitcher's individual performance. But it's probably incorrect to call them "more predictive" in situations where the pitcher is surrounded by the same defense.

 

Well you are forgetting luck. The ERA is a reflection of pitcher plus defense plus luck.  Luck is a huge factor in the larger variance of ERA compared to the predictors and FIP/xFIP attempt to parse it out. However, the predictors can’t tell precisely how much or the pitchers deviation is from luck and how much is the other factors so you basically have opposite problems.  Using a pitchers ERA to predict has a lot of luck built in. Using the predictors takes out the luck but also the other factors, making them both imperfect 

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1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

Well you are forgetting luck. The ERA is a reflection of pitcher plus defense plus luck.  Luck is a huge factor in the larger variance of ERA compared to the predictors and FIP/xFIP attempt to parse it out. However, the predictors can’t tell precisely how much or the pitchers deviation is from luck and how much is the other factors so you basically have opposite problems.  Using a pitchers ERA to predict has a lot of luck built in. Using the predictors takes out the luck but also the other factors, making them both imperfect 

Rule of thumb for me is usually to weigh FIP heaviest in season, since defense, park effects, and even HR rate seem to stay at least relatively stable over the course of a year, then pay a bit closer attention to XFIP for the next season's draft.

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7 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Can you compare that to Drew Smyly or send me a link to the site use?  I'm glancing at them both in the MLB.com stats and they seem similar in profile but I can't seem to find k-bb%, swstr%, etc. 

 

Yeah you can find it all on fangraphs.com. You can sort by leaders in both pitching and hitting stats and metrics. 

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On 8/14/2019 at 9:31 AM, AnonymousRob said:

Fair enough and useful article...but if i change my word to indicative, and not predicative. Is that still true? 

Yes, i'm aware the guy i was quoting said predictive. That is probably why i said predicative back. Poor word choice i was going for with my original point. Which was a pitchers skill, not the composite result of skill/ballpark/defense/luck

Edited by Slatykamora

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On 8/15/2019 at 5:35 PM, merlin401 said:

 

Well you are forgetting luck. The ERA is a reflection of pitcher plus defense plus luck.  Luck is a huge factor in the larger variance of ERA compared to the predictors and FIP/xFIP attempt to parse it out. However, the predictors can’t tell precisely how much or the pitchers deviation is from luck and how much is the other factors so you basically have opposite problems.  Using a pitchers ERA to predict has a lot of luck built in. Using the predictors takes out the luck but also the other factors, making them both imperfect 

 

Well, "variance" "sample size" etc. are stat jargon that basically refer to what everyone calls luck. But whatever you call it, it'd be a mistake to think it's not just as much a part of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, wOBA, ERA+ and even WAR.

For example, I mentioned earlier that FIP/xFIP have less variance because they are mostly based on a constant that depends on average ERA for all pitchers that season. But using a constant that we all already know is very different from factoring out luck. I mean both ERA and FIP/xFIP rely on IP. And just like ERA, a line drive that is "luckily" right at someone for an out is still 1/3 of an IP for FIP/xFIP too.

But bringing this derail back to Boyd, he still has a 1.19 WHIP and a 192/35 K/BB over 146 IP, which are VERY GOOD, period. It's just that even VERY GOOD pitching doesn't always translate to a low ERA (or FIP, which as I said also relies on IP), especially when it's done in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball.

For example, here's what I said about Boyd about a 3 weeks ago:

Quote

Seems like this guy may be a decent buy-low candidate right now.

Over the last month he has a 6.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. But he also has 42:5 K:BB over 25.1 IP in that same span.

His season ERA is up to 4.13. But his FIP is 3.55 and xFIP is 3.37.

He has the Phillies today. After that it's @SEA, @TEX, and then CWS. TEX and CWS recently got him for 4 ER, but that stilly looks pretty manageable. And honestly he's been pitching better than the results would indicate.

On the other hand, the Tigers are the fourth worst defensive team in baseball according to fangraphs, which would explain the high ERA. So I guess we'll see.

 

So yeah, I figured he was pitching well, but having bad luck. Now, I'm more inclined to think defense has a lot more to do with it.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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53 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Well, "variance" "sample size" etc. are stat jargon that basically refer to what everyone calls luck. But whatever you call it, it'd be a mistake to think it's not just as much a part of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, wOBA, ERA+ and even WAR.

For example, I mentioned earlier that FIP/xFIP have less variance because they are mostly based on a constant that depends on average ERA for all pitchers that season. But using a constant that we all already know is very different from factoring out luck. I mean both ERA and FIP/xFIP rely on IP. And just like ERA, a line drive that is "luckily" right at someone for an out is still 1/3 of an IP for FIP/xFIP too.

But bringing this derail back to Boyd, he still has a 1.19 WHIP and a 192/35 K/BB over 146 IP, which are VERY GOOD, period. It's just that even VERY GOOD pitching doesn't always translate to a low ERA (or FIP, which as I said also relies on IP), especially when it's done in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball.

For example, here's what I said about Boyd about a 3 weeks ago:

 

So yeah, I figured he was pitching well, but having bad luck. Now, I'm more inclined to think defense has a lot more to do with it.

Combination of a lot of things, I'm sure. Can't have confidence in the lineup, the pen, the defense. 

Boyd probably needs another pitch to really take the next step, as well as a better team. He clearly has improved from previous years, though. 

For him to turn this around, I suspect he might have to look at trading off a few strikes for balls each game. The k to bb is sterling, he can probably afford it and not just be predictably in or around the zone each time. 

Edited by rcarena
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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Fantastic start. 

 

Only to see his BP blow the W. 

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