urban2014

Aaron Rodgers 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Over the last 3 years? Pretty much half the NFL.

image.png.c3b1297c495b495d61524dc47cf0829e.png

 

Well sure if ya do it that way then Andrew luck will look pretty bad the last 3 years too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well sure if ya do it that way then Andrew luck will look pretty bad the last 3 years too

Remember, I'm talking about who I would select as a Fantasy QB. I don't care how good Rodgers is in real life.

Rodgers will again have a band of misfits to throw to, with only Adams being a shining bright light. I just don't see that offense suddenly producing 300 passing yards on a weekly basis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Remember, I'm talking about who I would select as a Fantasy QB. I don't care how good Rodgers is in real life.

Rodgers will again have a band of misfits to throw to, with only Adams being a shining bright light. I just don't see that offense suddenly producing 300 passing yards on a weekly basis.

 

I am to. In 2016 Rodgers finished 1st overall. In 2017 he was hurt after 7 games but had the 2nd most points per game which obviously extrapolates to 2nd over all.

Last season was his only "bad" season which he finished 7th overall and its partially because he sprained an ACL in the first half of the first game. And partially because he had to throw to 3 rookie wrs and old busted Jimmy Graham with no run game and a bad head coach and bad play caller. I fully expect him to revert back to the norm with 30+ tds and over 4000 yards. 

Hes still a top fantasy qb. Like I said earlier in his last 11 seasons he averages 3900 yards and 30 tds and that's with 20 missed games. Hes due for "positive regression"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

he had to throw to 3 rookie wrs and old busted Jimmy Graham with no run game and a bad head coach and bad play caller. 

And most of that is the same, same WRs (granted with a year of experience now), the coaching being the (hopefully) big change.

He's definitely a safe pick overall, but his upside doesn't seem to be what it normally has in years past. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/12/2019 at 12:07 PM, Stonej14 said:

 I fully expect him to revert back to the norm with 30+ tds and over 4000 yards. 

Seems like I'm seeing this stat a lot like it is something great. It isn't. That might not even land him in the top 10. Unless you expect only 2 INTs over the whole year again, which I think is safe to say isn't going to happen. 4000/30 aint what it used to be. I like Rodgers OK this year, but his top QB days (fantasy at least) are about over. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/7/2019 at 10:11 PM, bomont said:

Seems like I'm seeing this stat a lot like it is something great. It isn't. That might not even land him in the top 10. Unless you expect only 2 INTs over the whole year again, which I think is safe to say isn't going to happen. 4000/30 aint what it used to be. I like Rodgers OK this year, but his top QB days (fantasy at least) are about over. 

 

 

He was the qb6 last year with only 25 tds. 5 more TDs puts him at qb3. 

Agreed 4000 and 30 isnt what it used to be but its still quite a feat. Only 7 QBs hit both of those marks last season. The only one who didnt make the top 10 was Kirk cousins. So I guess your right.

But if Rodgers got the 4000 and 30 plus his rushing stats almost certainly be a top qb. Unlike rivers or brees who post similar stats passing but end up as the qb 9 or 10 Rodgers tacks on another 250-300 rushing yards and 2-4 rushing TDs this pushes Rodgers past guys like brees even in a down year like 2018.

All that said I still wouldnt draft Rodgers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After all that I was surprised you closed with "I wouldn't draft Rodgers" :) Why not? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rodgers is healthy for the first time since Wk1 last season

Rodgers has the best set of weapons since 2016

Rodgers has had a lot of shade thrown his way the past year both professionally and personally, he will want to shut people up

Mike McCarthy is coach no more, Rodgers will want to justify running him out

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's going to beast and be really pissed off about it.  35 plus tds and 4800 yards floor.  A pissed off Rodgers with a coordinator who is going to cater to him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/7/2019 at 10:11 PM, bomont said:

Seems like I'm seeing this stat a lot like it is something great. It isn't. That might not even land him in the top 10. Unless you expect only 2 INTs over the whole year again, which I think is safe to say isn't going to happen. 4000/30 aint what it used to be. I like Rodgers OK this year, but his top QB days (fantasy at least) are about over. 

 

But when you add the couple hundred rushing yards and 3 or 4 scores he usually gets, he's still a top fantasy QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Chardo said:
On 7/8/2019 at 5:11 AM, bomont said:

Seems like I'm seeing this stat a lot like it is something great. It isn't. That might not even land him in the top 10. Unless you expect only 2 INTs over the whole year again, which I think is safe to say isn't going to happen. 4000/30 aint what it used to be. I like Rodgers OK this year, but his top QB days (fantasy at least) are about over. 

 

But when you add the couple hundred rushing yards and 3 or 4 scores he usually gets, he's still a top fantasy QB.

So obviously I had to check these things.

- First of all, last season only 7 guys had a 4000/30 season. In 2017 only one guy managed it; so let's not pretend 4000/30 is now the norm.

- Second, if we lower that a bit to 3500/25, then we find 12 last seson (on average 10 per season), but now most of these guys rush for 200 yards and a couple TDs, with the exception of Philip "statue" Rivers and Drew "frozen" Brees. Rodgers does a bit better than average, but not that much.

- Thirdly (and as a slightly different subject), there was some idiot (namely me) a couple months ago on the previous page who showed in a chart (which fortunately disappeared) that there were 12 QBs over the past 3 years with a better average yards per game than Rodgers. So what about that? Is the guy good or bad?

Well, I admit that time I didn't look at TDs or INTs (Rodgers is top-6 in both) or rushing stats. So why don't I make another chart, this time with fantasy points (which after all is the only thing we care about:

image.png.b20d43613b2676294f944eb466b74832.png

If we look at the average over 3 years, Rodgers is in the absolute top. However, I have to add that those three years were quite different:

- 2016 he was #1 QB in the league (with Nelson the #2 WR). 
- 2017 he was injured half way, but his averages per game still made him a top-6 option
- 2018 he was only the #9 QB in points per game (with Adams #3 WR). So he slid quite a bit in the past three years.

I don't think this is necessarily a sign that his career is over, and I trust him enough to have drafted him.

TL/DR; I think he can top 4000 yards; not sure about 30 TDs; but his lack of INTs and a bit of rushing on the side should still make him a top-12 QB at the least, and top-5 with a bit of good luck and some growth in his receiver corps.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/30/2019 at 5:58 PM, mortman212 said:

He's going to beast and be really pissed off about it.  35 plus tds and 4800 yards floor.  A pissed off Rodgers with a coordinator who is going to cater to him. 

I dont think you know what floor means.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

Anyone showing him the bench week 1 at Chicago?

Depends on your alternatives.  I don't know what to make of him.  Last year they also opened against Chicago, and he had a solid 286 with 3 TDs.  He stunk in the week 14 rematch, which was their first game after McCarthy got fired.  Was that a factor?  Who knows.  I tend to think that opening night, critical division game with several weeks to prepare, Rodgers should have some success.  

My own alternatives are Kyler Murray and Brissett.  Don't love either yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Depends on your alternatives.  I don't know what to make of him.  Last year they also opened against Chicago, and he had a solid 286 with 3 TDs.  He stunk in the week 14 rematch, which was their first game after McCarthy got fired.  Was that a factor?  Who knows.  I tend to think that opening night, critical division game with several weeks to prepare, Rodgers should have some success.  

My own alternatives are Kyler Murray and Brissett.  Don't love either yet.

 

My alts are guys like Rivers/Winston so I'm certainly tempted to have him ride the pine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bgar15 said:

Anyone showing him the bench week 1 at Chicago?

 

Never understood people like you. Going by your avatar, you're a Packers fan which means you should know Rodgers is in the same division as Chicago. Teams play their division rivals twice a season...you going to bench Rodgers both games? Minnesota has a tough defense too...thats another 2 games you'd probably consider benching.

Why would you draft Rodgers if you'd consider benching him 4 times?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bgar15 said:

Anyone showing him the bench week 1 at Chicago?

I’m rolling with Lamar Jackson against the Dolphins instead of Rogers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gryfter said:

 

Never understood people like you. Going by your avatar, you're a Packers fan which means you should know Rodgers is in the same division as Chicago. Teams play their division rivals twice a season...you going to bench Rodgers both games? Minnesota has a tough defense too...thats another 2 games you'd probably consider benching.

Why would you draft Rodgers if you'd consider benching him 4 times?

 

This is not the Aaron Rodgers and Packers offense of old where he may have cost you a 2nd round or even late 1st round pick. It's certainly not outlandish to think about sitting Rodgers on the road against the #1 defense. Especially if you have options like Winston/Lamar Jackson/etc. at your disposal.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

This is not the Aaron Rodgers and Packers offense of old where he may have cost you a 2nd round or even late 1st round pick. It's certainly not outlandish to think about sitting Rodgers on the road against the #1 defense. Especially if you have options like Winston/Lamar Jackson/etc. at your disposal.

 

 

25 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

I’m rolling with Lamar Jackson against the Dolphins instead of Rogers.

 

i don't like jackson this week at all. no way. and i like jackson. seems to me a tanking miami team with no reason to win will not put up much of a fight. they offloaded kiko and really only have DBs of quality, nothing up front. seems like the ravens will run, run, run, and with their weapons and a positive game script, i don't see LJax running. even if fitz can avoid the pass rush, who will he throw to? even kenny stills is gone. if lamar throws the ball 10 times and doesn't run at all i wouldn't be surprised. ingram + the sophomore + the rookie all day long.

i like rodgers this week because he's healthy, and his weapons are healthy (with the exception of jimmy graham's finger). i can see why @Chardo is benching kmurray this week: we have yet to see the real kyler murray stand up. but @bgar15, as much as i love rodgers it seems like even a interception machine jameis winston has to have more upside than just about anyone: the bucs have no defense, no RBs, and they're top heavy for passing. i like rodgers but i love winston this week.

1 hour ago, Gryfter said:

 

Never understood people like you.

 

be1f15347295c62517f25e10cbee4017.jpg

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...