brockpapersizer

Tyler Mahle 2019 Outlook

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First start of the year as the Reds fifth, and probably only because Wood is on the DL but an impressive performance. 

 

Post hype? Or just facing an awful offense in the cold? Seems a little interesting.

 

 

 

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On 4/4/2019 at 9:01 PM, brockpapersizer said:

First start of the year as the Reds fifth, and probably only because Wood is on the DL but an impressive performance. 

 

Post hype? Or just facing an awful offense in the cold? Seems a little interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

If he can locate the FB better, sky's the limit! He added a splitter and curve, ditching the change and curve

 

Last year the Pirates at him up, well not this year. If this is sign of things to come, there is only about 7-10 more days to get on board before he shows it again and again.

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2 hours ago, indycolts88 said:

Another good start.  Anything to see here?

5 IP against dreadful Marlins is disappointing.  His stuff looked good though.  His command is still all over the map.  

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I think I’m picking him up this week but possibly benching but I’m really leaning towards the fact that he might actually be decent. 

 

FWIW

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This is a guy in the Domingo German mold, and by that I mean he shows glimpses of dominance but has those 1 or 2 bad moments per game that ruins his outing. Marquez was like this up until the second half last year and the same could be said for Snell.  Now I’m not saying he will ever be as good as Snell or Marquez, but Mahle shows signs that if/when things click for him he could be very very good. 

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1 hour ago, bjvance5 said:

This is a guy in the Domingo German mold, and by that I mean he shows glimpses of dominance but has those 1 or 2 bad moments per game that ruins his outing. Marquez was like this up until the second half last year and the same could be said for Snell.  Now I’m not saying he will ever be as good as Snell or Marquez, but Mahle shows signs that if/when things click for him he could be very very good. 

With the trash thats on the WW I'll take anyone who flashes some upside.....im in.  

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I've been intrigued this guy since he came into the league. He is flashing a potential breakout. This season could be a turning point for him

1. He abandoned his slider for a curveball this year. This pitch thus far is flashing more vertical movement AND more horizontal movement (2019 vs 2018). Giving it a more slurve feel versus his relatively flat slider. Overall it's a nastier pitch. This has equated to slightly better breaking ball based on statistics but more importantly has increased the effectiveness of Mahle's best pitch, his fastball.

 

 

2. He is also showing a huge increase in command moving from a 4.26 BB/9 in 2018 to 1.91 om 2019. Also showing a slight increase in strikeouts. This has resulted in Mahle being 26th in the MLB in K%-BB% (one of my favorite indicators of pitcher dominance). 

3. Right now his FIP is .0.35 lower than his ERA and his xFIP is 0.80 lower. I believe he'll hover in the 3.30-4.00 range with the possibility of truly breaking out. Currently I think he is a strong SP4/5 with the upside of an SP2 if his curveball is further refined into a strike-'em-out pitch. 

 

Pick him up in 12TM+. Must own in dynasty (24.5 yo) for the potential breakout.

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He has to do something about the HR ball, and it doesn't help that he plays in GABP. Putting aside 2017, he's allowed 5 in 33 innings this year. That's a pace of 27 over 180 innings, and is simply too many. If he really is going to break out, he's got to get that in check. And I want to see his h/9 come down, too. 

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His WHIP isn't great so those HRs can hurt. As far as his strikeouts, I worry about his swinging strike rate %. It's near 8%-9% and his overall K % is 24% so one or the other has to start moving.

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9 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Worth the risk to stream tonight? 

I did it in weekly - Oakland's been scuffling, and Davis might still be dealing with his hip contusion... but Olson is back tonight 👀

I think it comes down to if you need a boost in Ks. I'm hoping I can make up 10+ Ks with his 2 games this week, then it's back to the FA pool for him.

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On 5/5/2019 at 8:59 AM, Flyman75 said:

He has to do something about the HR ball, and it doesn't help that he plays in GABP. Putting aside 2017, he's allowed 5 in 33 innings this year. That's a pace of 27 over 180 innings, and is simply too many. If he really is going to break out, he's got to get that in check. And I want to see his h/9 come down, too. 

Scary thing is he’s only pitched once at home this year. His Statcast numbers are yuck - 92.6 average exit velocity, 50% hard hit rate, .484 xSLG. When he goes back to GABP, the homers are likely to get even worse.

I do like him in dynasty - he’s only 24 and has made great progress this year with his command and his curve. But for this season he seems pretty risky.

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Eno highlighted this guy a week or so ago with his new command plus stats. He rates similar to someone like Tanaka in that sense and one of the best command guys in the league.  With improved secondaries he could be a top 50 starter .

 

 

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Poor guy can’t buy run support.  Wins are such a garbage stat.

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Well with McHugh's abomination I've added this guy. The walks being way down suggests there is a breakthrough here. He'll give up homers but if he isn't walking many then they won't hurt too much. He's always had the K stuff.

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Ive been a believer since last year. High K rate, good command, electric fastball, improved secondaries... lookout, the breakout is getting closer. 

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